Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.02%. Key sectors such as precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and securities showed significant gains [1]. Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, there is an expectation for a "de-involution" market trend, with no significant macro risks anticipated before August. The market is entering a new bullish phase, supported by improved investor sentiment and increased capital inflow. Although there are strong resistance levels, a predominantly strong oscillating market is expected, with an increase in investment tolerance. As long as the broad market indices do not show significant breakdowns, maintaining a high equity market position is advisable. The implementation of "de-involution" policies could alleviate the "increased income without increased profit" dilemma, potentially leading the indices into a new upward phase [2]. - Huazhong Securities remains optimistic about the trend in banking and insurance sectors, noting that while overseas tariff risks may increase, A-shares are gradually becoming desensitized. The upcoming second-quarter economic data is expected to be weaker than the first quarter but may exceed market expectations. The market is likely to experience increased volatility, with a focus on the banking sector's high dividend yield and the potential for significant valuation recovery in the real estate sector. Sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on sectors related to "de-involution" such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, steel, building materials, coal, and pork. Additionally, stablecoin-related sectors like fintech and brokerage, as well as non-ferrous sectors such as rare earths and precious metals (especially silver), are recommended. Companies with mid-year earnings forecasts likely to exceed expectations include those in overseas computing power, wind power, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and military industries [2].

Core Viewpoint - The "Ganshou" Jiangxi Provincial City Football Super League, sponsored by Yingxin Development, aims to promote grassroots football, enhance cultural tourism integration, and stimulate local economic growth through a high-level social football event [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Ganshou" league was officially launched on July 12 at Nanchang Bayi Stadium, attracting fans from various cities in Jiangxi [2]. - The league features a total of 66 matches over 110 days, with games primarily scheduled on weekends to facilitate attendance and tourism [2]. Group 2: Structural Reforms - The league adopts a "government-led + local collaboration + association operation" model, with joint hosting by the provincial sports bureau and local governments [3]. - Teams are organized by city rather than clubs, with all players being amateur, averaging 23 years old, and 60% being students, reflecting the event's community-oriented nature [3]. Group 3: Cultural and Economic Integration - The league emphasizes city pride with the slogan "In the name of the ball, for the city," aiming to foster a sense of belonging among players and fans [3]. - Initiatives include integrating match tickets with local cultural tourism passes, showcasing local culture during halftime, and establishing a "Ganshou Night Market" to promote related industries [3]. Group 4: Corporate Involvement - Yingxin Development, as the title sponsor, has a history of supporting sports events and aims to enhance the integration of cultural tourism and sports [3][4]. - The company plans to leverage its strengths in "real estate + cultural tourism + technology" to further develop the "cultural tourism + sports" collaboration [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1%, indicating a divergence in performance among stocks [1][3] - There is a sentiment of pessimism among investors despite the market reaching new highs, suggesting a disconnect between market performance and investor confidence [3][4] - The importance of patience in investment is emphasized, with a focus on long-term strategies rather than chasing short-term gains [4][6] Group 2 - The potential for a new acceleration in the market is highlighted, particularly if the liquor sector performs well, which could lead to a broader market rally [6] - The commentary suggests that retail investors should consider low-entry points rather than waiting for high prices to enter the market, advocating for a more strategic approach [8] - The distinction between different investment strategies, such as left-side investing and passive investing, is made, indicating that investors should understand their own approach [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% to 3509.68 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.47% to 10631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.22% to 2189.58 points, with the SSE 50 Index up by 0.62% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 151.53 billion yuan, with sectors such as real estate, coal, brokerage, steel, pharmaceuticals, and banking showing significant gains [1] DDR4 Market Insights - The price of DDR4 continues to rise due to the exit of major players like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix from the market, with the DXI index reaching 83072.69 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 86.1% [2] - Demand for niche DRAM is expected to remain strong, driven by a weak recovery in smartphones, PCs, IoT, and industrial control sectors, alongside ongoing domestic replacement trends [2] Copper Price Volatility - Following Trump's consideration of a 50% tariff on imported copper, COMEX copper prices surged to nearly $5.9 per pound, closing at $5.51 per pound, marking a daily increase of nearly 10% [3] - The divergence in price movements between COMEX and LME copper indicates potential for increased volatility in copper prices in the short term, with expectations of a return to fundamental and macroeconomic influences [3] Photovoltaic Industry Developments - The price of silicon materials has surged to approximately 45,000 yuan per ton, a 25% increase, as the industry responds to "anti-involution" policies [4] - The rise in silicon prices is expected to lead to price increases across the photovoltaic supply chain, including N-type silicon wafers and potentially batteries and components [4] Banking Sector Stability - The banking sector's foundation for "stable returns" has been strengthened, supported by macroeconomic and regulatory policies that enhance profitability stability [6] - The focus on low-valuation stocks and beta varieties is expected to continue, with institutional investors showing increased interest in stable return assets [6] Strategic Mineral Export Control - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated a special action to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals, including antimony and gallium, to prevent illegal outflows [8] Innovative Drug Developments - Guangshengtang's innovative drug GST-HG131 for hepatitis B treatment has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy products, indicating significant clinical advantages [9] Rare Earth Pricing Adjustments - Baotou Steel's announcement to adjust the price of rare earth concentrates to 19,109 yuan per ton (excluding tax) reflects ongoing changes in the pricing mechanism for rare earth products [10]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% on July 10, reaching a 9-month high, with real estate stocks experiencing a surge and banks, brokerages, and rare earths showing significant gains [1] - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.7%, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index at 50.5%, and the Composite PMI Output Index at 50.7%, indicating a recovery in all three indices, with the manufacturing PMI and composite PMI rising for two consecutive months [1] - The improvement in manufacturing sentiment suggests a continued expansion in economic activity, supported by various growth-stabilizing policies, which are expected to enhance the internal driving force of economic operations [1] Group 2 - The continuous rise in PMI over two months indicates a recovery in corporate credit demand and a peak decline in non-performing loan rates, which is expected to improve the fundamentals of the banking sector [1] - Banks are direct beneficiaries of real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with specific measures like the "guarantee delivery" loans and the whitelist for property companies easing real estate risks [1] - As real estate stocks surged, banks also performed well, with expectations that if the Shanghai Index breaks through 3500 points, it could further boost market sentiment and attract more capital [1] Group 3 - In July, the market is entering the earnings disclosure period, and with recent performance trends, funds are likely to focus on identifying investment opportunities around earnings [2] - The Bank ETF (515020) increased by 1.21%, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190), which has the highest bank exposure, rose over 3% with a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.57% to close at 24,028.37 points on July 10 [1] - Baolong Properties (01238.HK) closed at HKD 0.365 per share, up 19.67%, with a trading volume of 8.278 million shares and a turnover of HKD 2.8702 million, showing a volatility of 31.15% [1] - Over the past month, Baolong Properties has seen a cumulative decline of 3.17%, and a year-to-date decline of 31.46%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 19.1% [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Baolong Properties reported total revenue of RMB 25.757 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of RMB 5.765 billion, a decrease of 117.3% [1] - The gross profit margin stood at 9.11%, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 74.27% [1] Group 3 - Currently, there are no institutional investment ratings for Baolong Properties [2] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the real estate industry is 10.06 times, with a median of -0.15 times; Baolong Properties has a P/E ratio of -0.2 times, ranking 228th in the industry [2] - Other companies in the industry have P/E ratios such as Baishi Holdings (01168.HK) at 0.75 times, Hengda Group Holdings (03616.HK) at 1.71 times, and others [2] Group 4 - Baolong Properties Holdings Limited was established in Macau in 1990, focusing on diversified operations including real estate, commercial, hotel, and cultural arts [3] - The company aims to become a respected century-old enterprise and a global leader in urban commercial operations, with total assets exceeding RMB 200 billion and over 10,000 employees across more than 200 companies [3] - Since 2003, Baolong Properties has specialized in developing and operating comprehensive commercial real estate projects, and has been listed in Hong Kong since 2009 [3] - The company has developed nearly 300 high-quality property projects in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - Baolong Commercial began providing commercial operation services in 2007 and has signed management agreements for over 15 million square meters of commercial space [3] - The hotel division has developed partnerships with several international hotel groups and operates 21 hotels with a total of over 5,046 rooms [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.57% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.29% and the China Enterprises Index increased by 0.83% [1] - Real estate stocks surged in the afternoon, with Sunac China Holdings (01918.HK) rising over 13% and R&F Properties (02777.HK) increasing by over 11% [1] - The cryptocurrency sector saw a rebound, with Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) rising more than 8% [1] Group 2 - The Apple-related stocks experienced a recovery, with Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) increasing by over 6% [1] - Other sectors that performed well included Chinese brokerage firms, logistics, building materials, banks, and insurance [1] - Notable individual stock performances included Yao Cai Securities (01428.HK) rising over 25%, surpassing a market capitalization of 23 billion HKD, and Puxing Energy (00090.HK) which surged by 141% after subscribing to HASHKEY-HOLDINGS-LIMITED preferred shares [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in China's CPI and PPI, highlighting a shift from a declining trend to an increase in CPI after four months, with core CPI reaching a 14-month high. It also notes the mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates due to differing expectations about tariffs and inflation [1]. Economic Indicators - In June, China's CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a turnaround after four consecutive months of decline. Core CPI increased by 0.7%, the highest in 14 months [1]. - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. Commodity Market Insights - The domestic commodity futures market saw most prices rise, particularly in the chemical sector, with notable increases in rubber and black coal prices [1]. - Rubber prices are supported by supply constraints due to weather conditions, while the market anticipates weaker demand in the summer [2][12]. - Focus on the coal market indicates a rebound in production and continued inventory replenishment, with attention on policy developments regarding the coal industry's internal competition [2][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market - Glass futures are stabilizing below 1,000, with a slight inventory reduction noted. The market is focusing on supply-side adjustments and the impact of domestic consumption recovery [3][15]. - Soda ash inventory increased slightly, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels due to poor production profits [3][15]. International Trade Developments - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on copper imports effective August 1, 2025, leading to a surge in copper futures prices [4]. - The U.S. continues to engage in trade negotiations, with potential impacts on various commodities and market sentiment [4][16]. Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure due to favorable weather conditions in the U.S. and ongoing trade disputes, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [24]. - Oilseed prices are expected to remain high due to a decrease in palm oil production in Southeast Asia, despite fluctuations in the market [25]. Metal Market Overview - The copper market is experiencing price fluctuations due to stable demand in the power sector and ongoing trade tensions [17]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic demand and supply recovery [18]. Black Metal Sector - Iron ore demand remains resilient, supported by steel production, although global shipments are expected to increase in the second half of the year [21]. - Steel market dynamics indicate a balance between supply and demand, with seasonal factors affecting construction-related demand [22].