Market Performance - Major stock indices in the two markets experienced fluctuations, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% at one point, and more than 3700 stocks declining [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42% to 3897.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.68%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.69%, and the STAR 50 Index declined by 1.24% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.6073 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, brokerages, automobiles, and liquor saw declines, while retail, coal, insurance, and real estate sectors experienced gains [1] - Concepts related to cross-strait integration and Hainan Free Trade Zone were active [1] Investment Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the easing of overseas disturbances, rising expectations for global liquidity, and improved risk appetite have laid a solid foundation for the current year-end market trend [1] - Following previous fluctuations and digestion, clearer economic and industrial development plans from year-end meetings are expected to further consolidate market consensus and guide mainline directions [1] - A bullish mindset is recommended, with continued investment in the recovery of Chinese assets [1] - Focus should be on sectors with policy support and positive economic outlook for next year, including "anti-involution" and price-increasing resource products (chemicals, building materials, steel, energy metals, precious metals), agriculture, and new consumption & service consumption (leisure food, education, travel chain, etc.) [1] - Technology growth is anticipated to be a key driver in breaking through the current market volatility [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a downturn on December 2, with all three major indices declining: Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55%, Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.77%, and ChiNext Index decreased by 0.88% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.05 trillion yuan, a decrease of 179.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nearly 4,000 stocks in the market saw declines [1] Sector Performance Gainers - The pharmaceutical retail sector saw significant gains, with Haiwang Biological achieving five consecutive trading limits, and other stocks like Renmin Tongtai and Yaoyigou also hitting the limit [2] - Fujian stocks surged, with Pingtan Development and Rongji Software both reaching trading limits, driven by the recent release of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Fujian Province [3] - The AI mobile concept remained active, with stocks like Daoming Optical and Furong Technology hitting trading limits [1] Losers - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a collective pullback, with Huaxi Nonferrous Metals dropping over 7% [1] - The battery supply chain showed weak performance, and the AI application concept also saw declines, with stocks like Shifeng Culture and Xingfu Blue Sea falling over 7% [1] Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities noted that the market is in a phase of frequent style switching, suggesting a focus on defensive sector allocations while monitoring structural market trends [4] - Shenwan Hongyuan indicated that while aggressive assets may rebound, the logic for upward breakthroughs remains challenging, suggesting a cautious outlook for the spring market [5] - Industrial sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense are expected to see potential rebounds, with AI computing, storage, and robotics also showing opportunities [6] - Industrial and economic recovery in China is anticipated as overseas disturbances ease, with a focus on the upcoming cross-year market dynamics [7]

Market Performance - In November 2025, major global stock indices showed a weak overall performance, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recording positive returns, while most European and Asia-Pacific indices declined[3] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 4.4%, while the MSCI Global Market decreased by 4.1%[3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng industry indices displayed a "defensive dominance" pattern, with sectors like Consumer, Energy, Financials, and Telecommunications recording positive returns, indicating a preference for traditional industries with defensive attributes in a weak risk appetite environment[7] - The Consumer sector led with a return of 4.6%, followed by Energy at 4.4% and Financials at 3.6%[6] IPO and Financing Activity - In November 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 11 new listings, raising approximately HKD 40.6 billion, primarily driven by two automotive stocks[13] - The refinancing activity included 53 companies announcing share placements, expected to raise around HKD 31.16 billion, mainly in the real estate and automotive sectors[13] Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations showed significant volatility, with a drop of 20 percentage points to 30% on November 19, followed by a rise of 32 percentage points to 71% on November 21, indicating ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy[15] - In China, the government emphasized enhancing consumer supply-demand adaptability as a key strategy, aiming for a high-quality development framework by 2030[17] Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with limited downside potential, while sectors with solid earnings support may show resilience[18] - The Hong Kong market is likely to experience narrow fluctuations, supported by positive policy expectations, with a focus on technology, high-dividend, and domestic consumption sectors[18]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 01 日 哪些行业可能成为轮动的"下一站"？若市场继续追逐弹性，可能会选择"今年表现强势，但尚未明显修 复"的行业。从 SW 一级行业来看，电力设备在今年以来涨幅靠前，上涨 40.85%，但在 11 月 21 日至今仍下跌 1.22%，有望吸引资金关注。基础化工今年以来上涨 28.25%，而在 11 月 21 日至今仍下跌 1.39%，同样可能成为 轮动方向。而若市场避险情绪升温，则可能会选择"今年上涨不多，且尚未明显修复"的行业，如消费和红利品 种。此外，11 月以来的政策空窗期已基本进入尾声，市场可能提前博弈 12 月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议的政 策，消费、地产等行业有望迎来阶段性反弹。 港股科技和红利品种的调整幅度，已基本来到历史底部经验值。科技方面，恒生科技在 10 月 3 日至 11 月 21 日下跌 19.26%，从 2024 年 10 月以来的经验来看，其每段跌幅基本处于 20%-30%范围内；红利方面，港股通红 利低波指数在 2024 年 10 月以来的下跌分为两类，一是小幅下跌，跌幅处于 5%-7%附近；二是大 ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a bullish trend with 3,396 stocks rising, indicating a strong profit-making effect and a broad-based rally in individual stocks [5][6] - The trading volume in both markets has significantly increased to over 1 trillion, up 18.17%, ending a streak of declining volumes, suggesting a resurgence in capital activity [7] Sector Performance - Key sectors driving the market include AI mobile phones, smart wearables, and the semiconductor industry, particularly in photolithography machines and MCU chips [6] - Concepts such as 6G, satellite navigation, commercial aerospace, servers, and memory stocks are also showing notable gains [6] Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors have shifted from a cautious to an active stance, focusing on a "cross-year market" strategy, balancing defensive and growth-oriented investments [9] - Retail investors are actively participating, showing a tendency to follow hot trends like AI mobile phones and commercial aerospace, while maintaining some caution to avoid blindly chasing high-priced stocks [9][10] Positioning and Strategy - The current sentiment indicates that 29.96% of investors are increasing their positions, while 14.44% are reducing, and 55.60% are holding steady [14] - The overall sentiment shows that 69.78% of investors expect the market to rise in the next trading day [16]

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 【相关阅读】第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜出炉，海外市场研究第一名为兴业证券张忆东团队。 新浪财经整理张忆东最新观点如下： 张忆东最新观点：震荡不改长牛逻辑 "'4000点'只是行情逻辑的短期成果，既不是起点，更不是终点，甚至都不应该是思考中长期行情的重 点。" "往后看20年，到本世纪中叶，中国市场的这轮'长牛'立足于中国综合实力的提升，可以理解为'金融强 国牛'或'社会主义现代化强国牛'。我们不排除未来出现大幅调整的可能，但关键的大逻辑是中国经济增 长方式在转变，综合国力在提升。" "AI浪潮才刚刚开始，与90年代互联网浪潮'形似而神不似'，相似之处都是资本开支驱动，核心差异在 于时代背景不同，现在的科技是中美大国博弈的主阵地和必争之地。" "宏观层面看，新旧动能切换确实还没完全实现在经济数据上，但从资本市场的角度已经显现出新动能 跑赢旧动能的切换趋势。" "中国服务消费为核心的新消费浪潮已经启动，新消费的成长时代已经来临，未来的消费市场将呈现'总 量稳、新消费活'的格局。" "人形机器人目前还处于产业生命周期的 ...

Supply - The average operating rate of high furnaces decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 81.6%, compared to a 0.1 percentage point decrease year-on-year[2] - The asphalt operating rate fell by 3.1 percentage points to 26.3%, marking a new low for recent years[2] - The cement dispatch rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 33.4%, also the lowest in recent years[2] Demand - New housing sales in 30 major cities increased by 8.0% month-on-month but decreased by 31.7% year-on-year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years[3] - Second-hand housing sales in 18 key cities rose by 20.8% month-on-month but fell by 14.9% year-on-year[3] - Passenger car sales averaged 60,000 units per day, down 1.6% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced coverage and support of vehicle replacement subsidies[3] Prices - The average price of rebar increased by 1.6% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 4.7%[4] - The average price of pork decreased by 1.0% to approximately 17.9 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year decline of 24.0%[6] - The average price of cement fell by 0.8%, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 23.8%[4] Inventory - Steel inventory decreased by 6.0% month-on-month, while the year-on-year increase was 21.8%[7] - The average coal inventory at coastal power plants rose by 2.0% month-on-month but decreased by 5.4% year-on-year[7] - Asphalt inventory fell by 7.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%[7] Liquidity - The central bank implemented a net liquidity injection of 38.98 billion CNY through open market operations in the past half month[9] - The issuance of government bonds totaled 12,026 billion CNY, with a month-on-month decrease of 382.7 billion CNY[9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 2.2 basis points to 1.844%[9]

Core Viewpoint - The market has been experiencing volatility due to high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector, alongside concerns about the AI bubble and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, leading to a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Tech index by approximately 16.6% from its peak [2] - Despite attractive valuations in domestic consumption and real estate, the recent weakening of fundamentals has hindered consensus among investors, making dividend stocks a preferred choice in the current environment [2][7] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hang Seng Index at 26,000 points, validating this view despite fluctuations in October [2] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil reflects a disconnect between fundamentals and expectations, indicative of a weakening domestic credit cycle, as evidenced by the peak in private social financing in June and a marginal decline in M1 growth in October [7][8] - The market's oscillation between dividend and technology stocks highlights the ongoing struggle between current fundamentals and future expectations [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider the credit cycle as a guiding framework for macroeconomic direction and asset allocation, focusing on sectors that align with credit expansion [10][11] - The past two years have seen a trend of "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce assets," with the potential for rapid price increases followed by liquidity shifts to new opportunities [12] Sector Analysis - **Technology Sector**: The AI industry remains a key growth area, supported by domestic policy, but faces challenges due to high valuations and expectations. Short-term focus should be on hardware domestic substitution, while long-term prospects depend on application demand and profitability realization [20][21] - **Domestic Consumption and Real Estate**: Although these sectors have low expectations and valuations, the weakening fundamentals make sustained consensus difficult. Potential short-term trading opportunities may arise with policy catalysts, but caution is advised against "static valuation traps" [17][42] - **Dividend Stocks**: These assets serve as a hedge against weak domestic demand, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index offering a static yield of approximately 5.8%. However, the range of high-dividend stocks has narrowed, with less than 25% of eligible stocks yielding above 5% [43][45] External Demand and Cyclical Opportunities - The recovery of the U.S. credit cycle may boost global manufacturing, benefiting sectors tied to exports and commodity pricing. Key indicators to watch include U.S. manufacturing PMI and existing home sales [34][37] - The cyclical recovery in external demand may provide short-term trading windows, particularly in the first quarter, as domestic PPI is expected to rise [39][42] Conclusion - The investment strategy should focus on a "barbell" approach, combining dividend and technology stocks while dynamically adjusting weights based on market conditions. External demand-driven cyclical sectors and innovative pharmaceuticals may offer additional flexibility in the portfolio [17][19]

Group 1 - The current stock market requires confidence rather than capital, as evidenced by the lack of trading volume and the significant decrease in bond funds by 100 billion [1] - The market sentiment is low, with a noticeable drop in daily trading volume by 1 trillion, indicating a lack of investor interest as the year ends [1][3] - The increase in deposits and money market funds suggests poor investment willingness, with many preferring to lend money at a low interest rate of 1.4% rather than investing in equities [3] Group 2 - A potential market rally may occur soon, reminiscent of the pre-Chinese New Year period in 2019, where market sentiment was similarly low [5] - The current market is being supported by major banks' protective actions and localized interest in AI hardware stocks, which do not significantly impact the broader market [5] - If favorable news in the securities and real estate sectors catalyzes a rally, the Shanghai Composite Index could rise above 4000 points, boosting overall market sentiment [5] Group 3 - The market is at a critical juncture, with a strong possibility of a rally around the Chinese New Year, as prolonged low sentiment could lead to a return to bear market trading volumes [7] - The enthusiasm for A-shares has recently increased, making it unlikely for the market to revert to a bear state easily [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week's main concerns include a slight rebound in the week-on-week new home sales in 20 cities, a widening year-on-year decline, and only Hangzhou's new home sales were higher than the same period last year. Overall, the real estate sales remained weak. Commodity prices mostly rose, the production remained stable with a differentiated performance in the operating rates. The box office was significantly higher than the seasonal level due to the release of popular movies, which concentratedly reflected the viewing demand [2]. - The year-on-year decline in new home sales widened this week. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Specifically, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The price of rebar increased slightly, with robust demand, steel mills reducing production, and merchants reluctant to sell, which supported the price increase. The cement price increased slightly as the weather improved, construction accelerated, and manufacturers pushed up the price, but the demand support was limited. The glass futures price rose, with an enhanced expectation of supply contraction, solid cost support, and short - term improvement in production and sales. The asphalt price decreased slightly due to the seasonal shrinkage of demand, sufficient supply, and weakened cost - end support [2]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the travel momentum was strong. The subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile consumption, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [2]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price decreased, the vegetable price and oil price increased. This week, the vegetable price increased due to cold weather and rainfall leading to vegetable production reduction and poor supply connection. The crude oil price increased, driven by the expected production cut by OPEC+, the decline in US production, and geopolitical risks [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI increased this week. The transportation demand on the East Coast of the United States route rebounded, shipping companies promoted freight rate increases, and the operating cost provided support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remained Weak Year-on-Year - From November 21st to November 27th, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Among them, the new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2][7]. - In terms of key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Beijing (-32.88%), Shenzhen (-28.09%), and Hangzhou (-1.38%), the new home transactions in other key cities were significantly stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, except for Hangzhou (18.73%), the new home transaction areas in other key cities were much weaker than the same period last year [7]. - From November 21st to November 27th, the second - hand home transactions showed a differentiated week-on-week performance, and the year-on-year decline widened. In key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Hangzhou (-1.46%) and Shenzhen (-7.75%), the second - hand home transaction areas in other key cities were stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, the second - hand home transaction areas in all key cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [7]. 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Mostly Rose - In terms of investment, most commodity prices rose this week. The prices of rebar and cement increased slightly, the glass futures price rose, and the asphalt price decreased slightly [31]. 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed a Differentiated Performance - In production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [39]. 4. Consumption: Travel Momentum was Strong - In terms of consumption, the subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile sales, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [49]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Increased - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased slightly, the BDI index increased, the port cargo throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [55]. 6. Prices: Pork Price Decreased, Vegetable Price Increased, Oil Price Increased - In terms of prices, the pork price decreased slightly, the vegetable price increased, the oil price increased, and the rebar price increased slightly [60].