1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market maintains a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation trend. Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the Malaysian palm oil hovers around 4,400 ringgit. After a short - term consolidation and stabilization, with potential bullish factors such as slower production growth and increasing exports, the crude palm oil futures may strengthen. If it effectively stands above 4,500 ringgit, an upward oscillatory rally may occur. It's advisable to closely monitor whether it can stand above 4,400 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures market also shows an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support of the 60 - day moving average. If the Malaysian palm oil strengthens, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, it may open up new upside space. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. It's necessary to closely watch whether it can stand above the 60 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Soybean Oil Today, the soybean oil futures rebounded due to the rise of rapeseed oil (anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed) and good consumption during the last stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling. The news of soybean oil exports also provided support. However, the supply is sufficient, and with the upcoming China - US leaders' call, the market is waiting to see if it involves agricultural product purchases, resulting in limited price fluctuations. The January contract is oscillating above 8,300 yuan. If the call reveals China's purchase of US soybeans, the increase in soybean supply in the fourth quarter may drag down the far - term contracts, while the rise of CBOT soybeans may boost the near - term contracts. Otherwise, the January contract will maintain the current narrow - range oscillation [4]. 2.3 Oilseeds (Bean Meal) The bean meal futures once broke through the support level due to the increasing expectation of a China - US trade tariff agreement and weak market reality. But it rebounded slightly during the day under the influence of the sharp rise of rapeseed meal and profit - taking by some institutions. The short - term market is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the futures price continues to fluctuate around 3,000 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - term basis remained stable. With high inventory pressure, oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods and even repurchase some contracts. However, due to the weak peak - season consumption and the decline in pig存栏, feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The spot price of bean meal has limited upward momentum and will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 9,316 yuan/ton, 9,114 yuan/ton, and 8,792 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.09%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,447 ringgit/ton, up 0.27%. There are also data on price spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, etc. [5][8] - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,328 yuan/ton, 8,052 yuan/ton, and 7,990 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.17 cents/pound, down 1.25%. There are also data on price spreads such as Y 1 - 5, Y 5 - 9, etc. [5][13] 3.2 Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: Bean meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 3,014, 2,786, and 2,899 respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. Rapeseed meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 2,522, 2,387, and 2,454 respectively, with daily increases of 2.11%, 1.27%, and 0.78%. The CBOT yellow soybean is at 1,038.75, with no change [18]. - **Spread**: There are data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 228, up 7; RM01 - 05 is 113, up 14 [19][21]

Group 1 - On September 19, domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend, with canola oil and canola meal rising over 1% [1] - As of the latest data, canola meal futures increased by 1.26% to 2500.00 CNY/ton, while canola oil futures rose by 1.32% to 10098.00 CNY/ton [1] - Other notable increases included soybean meal up 0.60% to 3692.00 CNY/ton and peanuts up 0.54% to 7886.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The futures prices on September 19 were as follows: soybean oil at 8298.00 CNY, palm oil at 9314.00 CNY, canola oil at 9986.00 CNY, soybean meal at 2995.00 CNY, canola meal at 2475.00 CNY, and peanuts at 7866.00 CNY [2] - The trading volumes for various futures contracts showed stability, with soybean oil at 24544 lots, palm oil at 1570 lots, and canola oil at 8206 lots, all remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Group 3 - As of September 18, the basis data indicated that several contracts, including canola oil, canola meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, experienced a phenomenon of "backwardation," where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - The basis and basis rates for various commodities were reported, with canola oil showing a basis of 140 CNY and a basis rate of 1.39%, while canola meal had a basis of 137 CNY and a basis rate of 5.26% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short on soybean meal, medium - term range - bound trading with a strategy of selling on rallies [1] Core Viewpoints - Although the USDA has repeatedly lowered the global new - crop soybean supply, the oversupply situation of global soybeans, especially soybean meal, has not significantly improved. The low - valued US soybeans have been in a monthly - level range - bound state. The rapid expansion of Brazil's planting area and the declining global soybean meal consumption growth rate are the main causes of the global soybean surplus. In the short term, due to the delayed improvement in the supply - demand pattern, there is still room for the valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal to decline. The market may first trade on the domestic real - supply pressure, US soybean harvest pressure, and US soybean import expectations, leading to a decline in soybean meal futures. When both US soybeans and domestic crushing margins are at low levels, the market will enter a new game. The strategy is to try short - selling soybean meal and reverse - spreading the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal in the short term, and mainly adopt the idea of range - bound trading and selling on rallies in the medium term [1] Summary by Directory 1. Global New - Crop Soybean Yield Estimate Declines Marginally, but Unable to Break out of the Downturn - In September, the USDA estimated that the global soybean output in the 25/26 season would decline by 520,000 tons month - on - month, but the total output would still reach 426 million tons, the highest in history, with a year - on - year increase of 1.67 million tons. The rapid expansion of Brazil's planting area and the declining global soybean meal consumption growth rate are the main causes of the global soybean surplus. In the 22/23 and 23/24 seasons, the failure to achieve excess output due to droughts in Argentina and Brazil led to a phased sharp rise in soybean meal prices. However, in the 24/25 season, the three major producing countries had a good harvest, resulting in an oversupply situation where US soybeans are trading below the planting cost range, and domestic soybean meal is also following a weak trend. China's soybean meal demand has stabilized, and there is no significant excess demand. Other potential demand - growing countries have not shown a large increase in imports. In the 25/26 season, there will be a restorative increase of nearly 7 million tons in sunflower and rapeseed, and the substitution consumption of soybean meal may decline. The natural consumption increase of global soybean meal is only about 3 - 4 million tons, while the average annual increase in global soybeans in the past three years is about 20 million tons, so the oversupply situation will lead to price - for - volume trading [2] - Based on the inventory - to - sales ratio and planting cost, the US soybean futures price is at a relatively low level, which is a resistance to further decline. However, the high global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio always suppresses the price. Compared with soybeans, soybean meal may experience a deeper decline due to weak macro - environment or weak growth in the downstream aquaculture industry. To break out of the downturn, global soybeans need restraint in production and steady growth in demand. Currently, attention is mainly focused on changes in Brazil's planting area and South American weather [3] 2. Short - term Uncertainty of US Soybean Imports and South American Planting Support Current Soybean Meal Valuation - As of September 12, 2025, the domestic port soybean inventory was 9.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased by 1.16 million tons year - on - year and decreased by 20,000 tons compared with the previous period. The feed - enterprise inventory days were 9.22 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.87 days. The high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is in line with the seasonal pattern. Usually, a high inventory should correspond to a relatively low basis and crushing margin, but currently, oil mills can still maintain the break - even point because the crushing margin is supported by the uncertainty of US soybean imports. Brazil's remaining supply can just cover China's soybean purchases before the new South American season, giving Brazil a high bargaining power [5] - In previous years, the market could anticipate the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal by the end of August as early as July, and the crushing margin would be traded at a low level in advance, then recover during the South American planting trading period. This year, due to the expectation of a trade war, the crushing margin has been hovering around the break - even line. In the future, the crushing margin will be affected by the opening of US soybean imports, domestic high - inventory pressure, and South American planting support, increasing the analysis difficulty [6] 3. Soybean Meal Valuation Still Has Room to Decline; If There Are Few Positive Factors, the Market May First Trade on Real - Supply Pressure - For US soybeans, regardless of whether China opens up imports of US soybeans, the US soybean futures price has strong support at the level of 950 - 1000 cents per bushel due to its relatively low valuation. In terms of the basis, during the trade war in September 2018, the US soybean basis fell to around 110 cents per bushel, while the Brazilian basis rose above 350 cents per bushel. After the trade war eased, the US soybean basis rebounded to 150 cents per bushel, and the Brazilian basis fell to 90 cents per bushel. As of now, the soybean negotiation has not made much progress, and the Brazilian near - month basis is at a high level of 293 cents per bushel, resulting in a high premium for near - month contracts. The Brazilian far - month basis is slightly higher than normal. If Sino - US relations ease in the future, it may trigger a reverse - spreading market for soybean meal [10] - The crushing margin mainly follows the domestic real and expected supply. The domestic real - inventory pressure is high, and the expected supply depends on South American planting and whether US soybeans are imported. Currently, there is not much upward momentum for the crushing margin. Therefore, there is still room for the soybean meal valuation to decline. If there are no positive factors from South American planting, the market may first trade on the domestic real - supply pressure, US soybean harvest pressure, and US soybean import expectations. When the crushing margin and the US soybean futures price reach relatively low levels, the market may enter a new range - bound state. The future market will depend on the development of South American planting. If the South American output remains high, the strategy of range - bound trading and selling on rallies should be maintained [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats rose during the day. The pre - holiday stockpiling before the double festivals supported the oil prices to some extent. There were strong expectations of a consumption peak season and decreasing supply in the fourth quarter, but the high domestic inventory and weak spot market sentiment limited the increase of soybean oil prices. For the Y2601 contract, it was advisable to hold long positions, with support at 8300 - 8330 yuan/ton and resistance at 8460 - 8500 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money call options was also recommended. For rapeseed oil, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseeds, the market expected a reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The increase in imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia could partly make up for the supply. Palm oil was in a seasonal inventory - building period, but the export demand improved, and there was an expectation of an increase in the biodiesel blending ratio [3][4]. - **Feed Grains**: For corn and corn starch, the external market had some factors supporting the prices, but the expected high yield in the Northern Hemisphere and inventory build - up in the US would limit the increase. In the domestic market, it was a game between low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It was recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - **Grains and Beans**: The price of soybeans No. 1 continued to decline. There was an expectation of a good harvest of new soybeans, and with the increase in supply, it was advisable to hold short positions. For peanuts, there was an expectation of an increase in production, and the seasonal supply pressure affected the prices, but the pre - holiday stockpiling had a certain supporting effect [8][9]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of live pigs fluctuated weakly. There was a strong expectation of capacity reduction, and it was recommended to hold long positions. The price of eggs fluctuated and was at a low level. It was recommended to buy at low prices considering the consumption peak season [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Soybeans No. 1 and No. 2 were expected to be bearish or in adjustment. Peanuts were in an adjustment phase, and it was advisable to short lightly. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to hold long positions or buy at low prices [13]. - **Protein Feed**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal were in different market conditions. Soybean meal was expected to be weakly bearish, and it was advisable to wait and see. Rapeseed meal was expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to buy at low prices [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch were under pressure, and it was recommended to hold short positions [13]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Live pigs were expected to rebound, and it was recommended to hold long positions. Eggs were in a process of finding a bottom, and it was advisable to buy at low prices [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For some varieties like soybean meal 3 - 5, it was recommended to conduct positive spreads. For others, it was mostly recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some oil - related spreads, different strategies such as shorting, going long, or waiting and seeing were recommended. For the oil - meal ratio of soybeans, it was recommended to go long [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provided spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein feeds, energy and by - products, and livestock and poultry [16]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: Included import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Showed the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [20]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [21]. 3. Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: Included daily data of live pigs and eggs, such as prices and price changes [22][23]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided weekly key data of live pigs and eggs, including supply, demand, cost, and profit data [24][26]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: Included charts of live pig and egg futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as piglet prices and chicken苗 prices [27][31][33] - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Included charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanut production, inventory, trading volume, and spreads [36][46][55] - **Feed**: Included charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed - related, and soybean meal - related data, such as prices, inventory, and spreads [61][69][73][80] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of historical volatility of various varieties and options trading volume and open interest data of corn [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [98][99][100]

Report Overview - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: September 15, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang - Reviewer: Tang Yun Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed due to a public holiday. With the expected recovery of growth after the gradual improvement of export data, there is a chance for the crude palm oil futures to gradually rebound and return to 4,500 ringgit. After stabilizing around 4,500 ringgit, there is an opportunity for the futures to start an upward trend, with a long - term bullish view [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a sideways trend. Affected by the closure of Malaysian palm oil futures, they will continue to trade in a range. After the Malaysian market resumes and the price exceeds 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil futures may follow the upward trend. The view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones [3]. Soybean Oil - The resumption of Sino - US negotiations has no clear indication of China's potential purchase of US agricultural products, which supports Dalian soybean oil futures. However, the upcoming concentrated supply of US soybeans will pressure the global soybean market and have a negative impact on Dalian soybean oil. Domestically, the supply is sufficient while consumption is increasing. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to trade above 8,300 yuan, and there is a chance of an upward movement as international vegetable oil prices rise [4]. Bean Meal - Affected by the neutral - bearish US Department of Agriculture report and trade negotiations, market sentiment is under pressure, but the substantial negative impact is limited. The high premium of South American soybeans supports the import cost and limits the decline. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian bean meal will fluctuate between 3,030 - 3,080 yuan. The spot price will trade between 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Price Summary Oil Price | Product | Unit | Price | Today's Change | Today's Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 234 | 18 | - | | Y - P 01 | Yuan/ton | - 974 | 20 | - | | P 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 322 | 10 | - | | Y - P 05 | Yuan/ton | - 1044 | 44 | - | | P 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 88 | - 28 | - | | Y - P 09 | Yuan/ton | - 986 | 192 | - | | Y 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 304 | 0 | - | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.7028 | 0% | - | | Y 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 380 | 0 | - | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8433 | 0% | - | | Y 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 76 | 0 | - | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.778 | 0% | - | | OI 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 361 | 15 | - | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8945 | 1.05% | - | | OI 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 527 | - 51 | - | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.9468 | 0% | - | | OI 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 166 | 36 | - | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.9152 | - 0.39% | - | Palm Oil Price | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 234 | 18 | | P 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 322 | 10 | | P 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 88 | - 28 | | Palm Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 9422 | 1.36% | | Palm Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 9174 | 1.24% | | Palm Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 8866 | - 5.52% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | Ringgit/ton | 4445 | - 0.2% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | 9300 | 40 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | Yuan/ton | - 36 | 134 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 494.425 | - 1.168 | | International毛豆 - 毛棕 | US dollars/ton | - 12.4 | 9.7 | Soybean Oil Price | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Y 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 304 | 0 | | Y 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 380 | 0 | | Y 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 76 | 0 | | Soybean Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 8376 | - 1.2% | | Soybean Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 8076 | - 0.57% | | Soybean Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 8026 | - 3.44% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | Cents/pound | 52.12 | 0.99% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8460 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | Yuan/ton | 138 | 84 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 52.14 | - 11.3288 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | - 610 | - 30 | Oilseed Futures Price | Product | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3042 | - 37 | - 1.2% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2804 | - 16 | - 0.57% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2919 | - 104 | - 3.44% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2504 | - 27 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2393 | - 13 | - 0.54% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2462 | - 98 | - 3.83% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1045.25 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.12 | - 0.0021 | - 0.03% | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 259 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 125 | - 22 | | M05 - 09 | - 203 | 19 | RM05 - 09 | - 154 | - 24 | | M09 - 01 | - 56 | 1 | RM09 - 01 | 29 | 46 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3000 | 0 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 79 | 29 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2515 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 16 | 36 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 485 | 20 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 548 | 0 |

Report Overview - The report provides overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including data from USDA reports, export figures, and news on biodiesel projects [1]. - It also presents spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from September 8 - 12, 2025 [2]. USDA Oilseed Report Highlights Rapeseed - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 9096.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 523.5 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 1137.4 million tons, up 101 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed oil production is expected to be 3469.9 million tons, up 59.8 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 312.2 million tons, down 8.8 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed meal production is expected to be 4958.2 million tons, up 57.3 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 157.9 million tons, up 19.8 million tons [1]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 670 million tons, down 263.5 million tons; rapeseed oil exports are expected to be 337.5 million tons, up 3.5 million tons; rapeseed meal exports are expected to be 550 million tons, down 29.9 million tons [1]. Palm Oil - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil ending stocks are expected to be 1524 million tons, up 20.6 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil exports are expected to be 4570.8 million tons, a downward revision of 45.5 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 2400 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 1610 million tons, also unchanged [1]. Soybean - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 175 million tons, the same as the August estimate; exports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from August [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, the same as in August; exports are estimated at 6 million tons, up from 5.8 million tons in August [1]. - China's 2025/26 soybean imports are estimated at 112 million tons, the same as the August estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 425.87 million tons, down from 426.39 million tons in August; ending stocks are estimated at 123.99 million tons, down from 124.9 million tons in August [1]. Other Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10, 2025, were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decline from the same period last month [1]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before reaching B50, currently at 40% [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a sideways consolidation, likely to fluctuate between 4,400 - 4,500 ringgit awaiting production and export data. Seasonal production growth and weak export data may pressure the market. If it fails to hold above 4,500 ringgit, there's a risk of a downward breakout [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are also consolidating, following the trend of Malaysian palm oil. If Malaysian palm oil can't stay above 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may break down towards 9,000 yuan due to pre - National Day trading dynamics. Attention should be paid to the 40 - day moving average around 9,200 yuan and the performance of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, sufficient supply and increasing demand coexist. The market is influenced by international related products. The upcoming harvest of US soybeans exerts supply pressure on the international market, affecting domestic soybean oil prices. If the report is better than expected, CBOT soybeans may rise and boost Dalian soybean oil; otherwise, Dalian soybean oil may test the 8,300 - yuan support. After the monthly report is digested, the market may rise due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking [4]. Oilseeds (Bean Meal) - The firm South American soybean premium supports import costs, but news of potential China - US high - level talks in Madrid has emerged. In the short term, the market is a mix of weak current situation and strong expectations. The main contract of Dalian bean meal should be watched for resistance at 3,100 - 3,120 yuan/ton. Spot prices are slowly rising, and attention should be paid to feed companies' restocking in late September [18]. Price Data Oil Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,296 yuan/ton | -0.36% | | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,062 yuan/ton | -0.57% | | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,384 yuan/ton | -0.66% | | | BMD Palm Oil Main | 4,441 ringgit/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 01 | 8,322 yuan/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 05 | 8,018 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 09 | 8,398 yuan/ton | -0.26% | | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | 51.61 cents/pound | 1.24% | | Oilseed Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,079 | -9 | -0.29% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,820 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,023 | -8 | -0.26% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,531 | -36 | -1.4% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | -14 | -0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,560 | 10 | 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1,034 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1152 | -0.0025 | -0.04% | Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 216 yuan/ton (up 12), P 5 - 9 is - 332 yuan/ton (up 74), P 9 - 1 is 116 yuan/ton (down 86) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 994 yuan/ton (down 6), Y - P 05 is - 1,088 yuan/ton (down 12), Y - P 09 is - 1,178 yuan/ton (up 6) [5]. - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 279 yuan/ton (up 11), M05 - 09 is - 222 yuan/ton (up 11), M09 - 01 is - 57 yuan/ton (down 22) [20][23]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 147 yuan/ton (up 19), RM05 - 09 is - 130 yuan/ton (up 30), RM09 - 01 is - 17 yuan/ton (down 49) [20][23].

Core Views - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures tumbled due to increased inventory to 220 million tons in the MPOB report and a surprise drop in the first 10-day export data, with short-term support at 4,400 ringgit and potential further decline if it breaks [3]. - Dalian palm oil futures declined following the drop in Malaysian palm oil, with short-term support at 9,200 yuan and strong support at 9,000 yuan, and it's in a 4-wave adjustment [3]. - The MPOB monthly report showed consecutive increases in Malaysian palm oil inventory and reduced exports in early September, and the approaching US soybean harvest and expected high yield pressured the CBOT soybean market and domestic soybean oil. The short-term support for the Dalian soybean oil 1-month contract is 8,200 yuan, and there's a chance of a rebound after the decline [4]. - The soybean meal market lacks clear themes, with the main contract oscillating between 3,030 - 3,080 yuan, and the spot price ranging from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan [15]. Oil Price Information Palm Oil | Name | Unit | Latest Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 9,244 | -2.55% | | Palm Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 9,040 | -2.44% | | Palm Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 9,446 | -0.36% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | Ringgit/ton | 4,416 | -1.41% | | Guangzhou 24-Degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | 9,270 | -130 | | Guangzhou 24-Degree Basis | Yuan/ton | -86 | 20 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 497.126 | -1.168 | | International毛豆 - Crude Palm | US dollars/ton | -46.35 | 0 | [6] Soybean Oil | Name | Unit | Latest Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 8,256 | -0.29% | | Soybean Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 7,964 | -0.07% | | Soybean Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 8,262 | 0% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | US cents/pound | 50.39 | -1.96% | | Shandong First-Grade Soybean Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,420 | -100 | | Shandong First-Grade Soybean Oil Basis | Yuan/ton | 112 | 28 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 50.752 | -12.7168 | | Domestic First-Grade Soybean Oil - 24-Degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | -690 | -20 | [11] Oil Spread Information Month-to-Month and Variety Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 220 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -214 | -148 | | P 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | -6 | 140 | | Y 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 296 | 4 | | Y 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -342 | -46 | | Y 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 46 | 42 | | Y - P 01 | Yuan/ton | -1,078 | -28 | | Y - P 05 | Yuan/ton | -1,154 | -24 | | Y - P 09 | Yuan/ton | -1,026 | -126 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.7343 | 0.1% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8971 | 0.17% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7892 | 0.11% | | OI 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 324 | 9 | | OI 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -453 | -43 | | OI 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 129 | 34 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8631 | -0.15% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.9564 | -0.34% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.9137 | 1.76% | [5] Oilseed Futures Price | Name | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,066 | -9 | -0.29% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,798 | -2 | -0.07% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3,031 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,533 | -17 | -0.67% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,405 | -3 | -0.12% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,565 | 15 | 0.59% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1,030.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1215 | -0.0012 | -0.02% | [16] Meal Spread Information | Spread | Price | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 275 | 3 | RM01 - 05 | 142 | -2 | | M05 - 09 | -231 | -18 | RM05 - 09 | -142 | 42 | | M09 - 01 | -44 | 15 | RM09 - 01 | 0 | -40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2,980 | -20 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | -75 | 6 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,515 | 2 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | -35 | -6 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 485 | -2 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 525 | -14 | [17][19]

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed for a public holiday and will resume trading next Monday. If the futures can effectively hold above 4,400 ringgit, there is a chance of continued upward movement. With favorable factors such as slower production growth or continued export growth, the futures may continue to rise after breaking through 4,500 ringgit. Otherwise, they may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of next week's MPOB supply - demand data and the export data for the first 10 days of September from shipping agencies on the market [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures market showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, briefly rising above 9,500 yuan. After a rapid increase, it is expected to consolidate around 9,500 yuan. If it can effectively hold above this level and with the upward movement of Malaysian palm oil, there is a possibility of further upward movement. Attention should be paid to the guidance of Malaysian palm oil prices and whether the futures can hold above 9,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - China - US negotiations have made little progress, and China has not imported US soybeans. As of September 2, the cumulative purchases for September, October, November, and December shipments were 850.2 million tons (100% progress), 706.2 million tons (88.28% progress), 85.5 million tons, and 6.6 million tons (1.47% progress) respectively. China still mainly relies on Brazilian soybeans, with the rest from Argentina and Uruguay. The soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be insufficient, which will support the market. However, the current domestic soybean oil supply is still ample, and the international vegetable oil market has been affected by the pressure on crude oil (possible OPEC production increase). The increase of Dalian soybean oil futures is limited. The main January contract should first see if it can break through 8,500 yuan. If it does, the market will move further up; otherwise, it may return to around 8,300 yuan [4]. Oil Price Spreads - The report provides price spreads for various oil contracts, including P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm Oil: The report shows the prices and price changes of palm oil futures contracts (P 01, P 05, P 09) and spot prices in Guangzhou, as well as related spreads such as POGO and international毛豆 - 毛棕 [8]. - Soybean Oil: The prices and price changes of soybean oil futures contracts (Y 01, Y 05, Y 09), CBOT soybean oil futures, and Shandong soybean oil spot prices and spreads are presented [14]. Meal - Bean Meal: In a situation of weak current market conditions and strong future expectations, the main contract of Dalian bean meal futures fluctuated around 3,050 yuan. The spot market trading was slow, with oil mills' fixed - price quotes stable and near - month basis quotes down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Due to low vehicle flow at the beginning of the month, slow trading, and increasing inventory pressure, some oil mills lowered prices to boost sales. End - users' inventories are safe due to rolling replenishment, and they are mainly fulfilling contracts. The short - term spot price is under pressure [18]. - Futures Prices: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of bean meal (M 01, M 05, M 09), rapeseed meal (RM 01, RM 05, RM 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB exchange rate [19]. - Meal Price Spreads: Price spreads between different bean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as between bean meal and rapeseed meal, are provided, along with their price changes [20][22]. Pressing Profits - The report presents the international soybean pressing profits (US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF) and the pressing profits of imported rapeseed from Canada [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]