摘要 5 月小盘股表现优异，获得 2 个百分点以上的绝对收益，验证了模型判 断的准确性。6 月观点进一步倾向小盘，主要受益于宏观、市场情绪和 市场状态三个方面，其中情绪指标如天弘基金募资额、创新高个股占比 和期权 PCR 均利好小盘。 资产配置方面，当前对国内商品资产相对看好，股票资产持中性乐观态 度，而对债券则相对谨慎。宏观预期差模型显示，股票偏谨慎，债券中 性，商品乐观。左侧择时维度显示，股票偏乐观，债券偏谨慎，商品中 性。 行业轮动模型显示，市场轮动速度较快，采用价量因子为主，包括流动 性、动量和调研信息。5 月持仓行业包括银行、家电、综合金融、有色 金属、电科芯片公司和钢铁，组合涨幅 3.7%，跑赢基准 0.7%。 6 月推荐行业包括综合、消费者服务、通信、农林牧渔、钢铁和电子。 综合行业流动性得分靠前，农林牧渔与钢铁行业在调研信息维度有所优 势。综合金融因调研信息与流动性得分回落，未进入最终推荐持仓。 主动量化选股策略中，5 月初预测景气成长型策略与小盘掘金类策略将 表现更佳，小盘掘金类策略表现最佳。2025 年 5 月，小盘掘金类策略 表现最为优异，低关注度掘金策略收益率 9.6%，次新股掘金策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fraudulent activities have been reported involving individuals impersonating the National Energy Group and CITIC Group, establishing fake "expansion centers" and engaging in illegal activities, prompting both companies to issue stern warnings to the public [2][4]. National Energy Group - The National Energy Group has discovered that illegal entities have set up fake "expansion centers" across various regions, falsely claiming affiliation with the company and promoting investment schemes through social media platforms [3]. - The National Energy Group clarifies that it has never established any "expansion centers" or engaged in any form of investment or financial activities, nor authorized any investment-related mobile applications [3]. - The company, established on November 28, 2017, is a central state-owned enterprise formed from the merger of China Guodian Corporation and Shenhua Group, ranking 84th in the 2024 Fortune Global 500 [3]. CITIC Group - CITIC Group has also reported fraudulent activities where individuals have used the names of its subsidiaries to create fake companies, submitting false documents to company registries [4]. - A list of fraudulent companies has been published, indicating that these entities have no legitimate ties to CITIC Group or its subsidiaries, and their actions are entirely independent [5]. - CITIC Group emphasizes the importance of public vigilance against such fraud and encourages individuals to verify any claims regarding ownership or investment opportunities through official channels [7]. - CITIC Group is recognized as a central financial enterprise, ranking 71st in the 2024 Fortune Global 500, marking its 16th consecutive year on the list [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market showed differentiation, with the BeiZheng 50 leading the gains and the small - cap value style outperforming. In terms of industries, comprehensive finance led, and national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery also performed well. The bond market declined overall, while the convertible bond market rose. The average return of active equity funds in the whole market was - 0.41%; the average return of short - term bond funds was - 0.01%, and that of medium - and long - term bond funds was - 0.03%; the average return of bond funds with equity exposure was negative, and the average return of convertible bond funds was positive [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The equity market was differentiated, with the BeiZheng 50 leading and the small - cap value style dominant. Comprehensive finance led the industry performance, and national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery also performed well. As of the close this week, the CSI 300 Index closed at 3840 points, down 1.08%; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3347 points, down 0.03%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10041 points, down 0.91%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1993 points, down 1.4%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.32%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.46% [6]. - In terms of industry performance, comprehensive finance led with a gain of over 10%. National defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery performed well, while the automobile, non - ferrous metals, power equipment and new energy sectors declined by over 2% [8]. - As of May 30, 2025, there were 5413 stocks in the A - share market, of which 3228 stocks rose this week. The number of rising stocks on the BeiZheng, ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Main Board was 194, 816, 343, and 1875 respectively [11]. 3.2 Key Fund Tracking 3.2.1 Active Equity - **Fund Performance**: The average return of the whole - market funds in the sample was - 0.41%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in industries such as medicine, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages. Among industry - themed funds, medical sector funds had the highest average return, while mid - stream manufacturing and cyclical sector funds lagged [17][20]. - **Position Estimation**: This week, the positions of ordinary stock - type funds increased slightly, while those of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the positions of ordinary stock - type funds increased by 0.22 percentage points, and those of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased by 0.60 percentage points. Actively managed partial - stock funds increased their allocation to cyclical and stable sectors and reduced their allocation to financial, consumer, and growth sectors [23]. 3.2.2 Bond - type Funds - **Bond Market Performance**: The bond market declined overall this week. The ChinaBond Total Wealth Index closed at 245.89, down 0.07% from last week; the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index closed at 246.62, down 0.07% from last week; the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index closed at 223, down 0.01% from last week. The CSI Non - Pure Bond Fund Index closed at 2184.93 on Thursday, down 0.02% from last Thursday. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 429.31, with a weekly increase of 0.46% and a trading volume of 277.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.093 billion yuan from last week [29][31]. - **Fund Performance Overview**: The average return of short - term bond funds was - 0.01%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of medium - and long - term bond funds was - 0.03%, and the median was - 0.04%. The average return of first - tier bond funds was 0%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of second - tier bond funds was - 0.02%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of partial - bond hybrid funds was - 0.03%, and the median was - 0.02%. The average return of low - position flexible allocation funds was - 0.07%, and the median was - 0.05%. The average return of convertible bond funds was 0.28%, and the median was 0.22% [34][37][40]. 3.2.3 New - share Subscription Funds - **New - share Overview**: One new stock was listed this week, with a total raised capital of 604 million yuan. There was no break - even on the first day of listing, and the expected total入围 income was 35,400 yuan [41]. - **New - share Subscription Income Calculation**: Assuming weekly participation in offline new - share subscriptions and successful入围, the weekly new - share subscription return sequence of an 800 - million - yuan account was calculated [42]. - **Fund Company New - share Subscription Overview**: Eight fund companies with more than two new - share subscription funds were selected. This week, the new - share subscription return rate of an 800 - million - yuan account was 0.004%. The optimal scale for weekly and annual new - share subscriptions was 400 million yuan [44]. - **New - share Subscription Fund Performance**: The average return of new - share subscription funds in the sample this week was - 0.18% [46]. 3.2.4 FOF Fund Performance - The average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample this week were - 0.28%, - 0.88%, and - 1.45% respectively [48]. 3.2.5 QDII Funds - During the statistical period, partial - stock and index QDII funds declined by 0.71% and 0.83% on average respectively, while alternative and bond QDII funds rose by 0.02% and 0.37% on average respectively [2][49]. 3.2.6 REITs Funds - This week, REITs declined by 0.02% on average. The Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT led the gains, rising 4.26% this week. The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT had the highest liquidity, with a trading volume of 130.2489 million yuan this week [51].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3387.57 points, up 0.21%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10294.22 points, up 0.44% [1][5][10] - Among the 30 first-level industries, 13 sectors saw gains, with coal, non-ferrous metals, and electric equipment & new energy leading the increases, while comprehensive finance, electronics, and media experienced significant declines [1][5][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 12144 billion, slightly up from the previous day [1][5][10] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.91%, the S&P 500 down 1.61%, and the Nasdaq down 1.41% [2][5] - Major technology stocks, including Tesla and Apple, fell over 2%, and most Chinese concept stocks also declined, with iQIYI down over 8% and Baidu down over 4% [2][5] News Highlights - The Financial Regulatory Bureau and eight other departments jointly issued measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing financing supply and reducing costs [3][12] - Chengdu is promoting the development of a duty-free economy, aiming to establish duty-free shops within the year [3][15] - China and ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, which includes nine new chapters [3][18][19] - The U.S. is attempting to globally ban advanced computing chips from China, which has drawn criticism from Chinese officials [3][16][17]

Core Insights - The report suggests that the easing of the US-China tariff friction creates a favorable window for bullish investments, recommending a dual focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" [1][16] - The report highlights that the market's response to tariff impacts has been relatively quick and fully priced in compared to previous trade tensions, indicating a more resilient market sentiment [13][12] Market Overview - Following the easing of tariff tensions, the equity market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices surpassing their levels from early April. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and the Wind All A Index have all exceeded their April 2 levels as of May 16 [4][9] - The report notes that the convertible bond market has rebounded quickly, with the median price recovering from 115 yuan on April 7 to 120.13 yuan, indicating improved valuation attractiveness compared to early April [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing convertible bonds with lower absolute prices, especially those with high export revenue exposure, to hedge against potential volatility in the market [16][18] - It emphasizes that the themes of self-sufficiency and domestic demand are strong investment lines, alongside the potential resurgence of investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors as market risk appetite improves [1][18] Sector Performance - The report observes a divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap indices, with large-cap indices performing better in the wake of tariff easing, while small-cap indices experienced some pullback [6][7] - The transportation sector has led gains in the wake of tariff easing, with financial sectors and domestic demand-related stocks also showing strong performance [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a steady recovery, led by the technology sector, with the S&P 500 rising by 5.3% and the Nasdaq increasing by 7.2% [3] - Significant capital inflows have been observed, particularly in the semiconductor and automotive sectors, indicating strong investor interest [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been slightly adjusted upwards, with traditional industries showing the most significant upward revisions [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 increased by 5.3% and the Nasdaq by 7.2% this week, with the automotive and semiconductor sectors leading the gains at +16.2% and +13.3% respectively [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflows for the S&P 500 constituents reached +$25.71 billion this week, a significant increase from the previous week's +$2.99 billion [4] - The semiconductor sector saw the highest inflow at +$9.17 billion, followed by automotive at +$6.59 billion [18] Earnings Forecasts - The dynamic F12M EPS expectations for the S&P 500 were adjusted up by 0.1%, with 19 sectors seeing upward revisions, particularly real estate (+0.7%) and materials (+0.5%) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement signed between Fosun International and CITIC Group aims to explore new collaboration models in comprehensive finance, cultural tourism, health, and internationalization, creating a new benchmark for cooperation between state-owned and private enterprises [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The cooperation will focus on areas such as comprehensive finance, health, cultural tourism, advanced manufacturing, new urbanization, consumer trade, information technology, and rural revitalization, promoting resource sharing and mutual benefits [1][2] - Both companies aim to set new benchmarks in three areas: cooperation between state-owned and private enterprises, comprehensive financial services for private enterprises, and collaboration in cultural tourism and health [1] Group 2: Business Synergies - Fosun International has a strong presence in health, happiness, and wealth sectors, while CITIC Group has diversified operations in comprehensive finance, advanced manufacturing, advanced materials, new consumption, and new urbanization, indicating significant potential for collaboration [2] - Fosun's tourism division, which includes well-known resort brands, can enhance cooperation with CITIC's investment projects in the cultural tourism sector, exemplified by their joint project in Shenzhen's Jinsha Bay [2] Group 3: International Collaboration - CITIC Group has established a global financial service network and has operations in over 150 countries, while Fosun has a deep industrial layout in more than 35 countries, indicating vast opportunities for international collaboration [3]

国内市场综述 量价齐升 震荡上扬 周三（5 月 14 日）大盘量价齐升，震荡上扬。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3403.95 点，上涨 0.86%；深成指 收于 10354.22 点，上涨 0.64%；科创 50 上涨 0.41%； 创业板指上涨 1.01%，万得全 A 成交额共 13499 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 25 个行业收涨，其 中非银金融、综合金融及交通运输涨幅较大，而国防 军工、机械及家电则跌幅居前。概念方面，保险精选、 离境退税及炒股软件等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，英伟达涨超 4% 周三（5 月 14 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道 指跌 0.21%，标普 500 指数涨 0.1%，纳指涨 0.72%。 默克跌超 4%，安进跌逾 3%，领跌道指。万得美国科技 七巨头指数涨 1.57%，英伟达、特斯拉涨超 4%。中概 股多数上涨，腾讯音乐涨超 15%，大健云仓涨逾 5%。 新闻精要 1. 加快构建科技金融体制 中国七部门联合发布政策 举措 2. 4 月末中国社融规模存量 424.0万亿元，同比增 8.7% 3. 中方暂停 17 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.13 投资收益韧性突出，恢复平稳扩表 华泰证券(601688) ——华泰证券 2025Q1 季报点评 [Table_Industry] 综合金融/金融 | | ——华泰证券 2025Q1 季报点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 20.86 | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | | | 本报告导读： 2025Q1 投资业务净收入驱动增长。公司完成金融资产梳理工作，资产负债表恢复平 稳增长 投资要点： [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) 股东权益（百万元） 195,266 每股净资产（元） 21.63 市净率（现价） 0.8 净负债率 -161.81% [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 -15% -1% ...

国内市场综述 弱势整理 缩量回调 周五（5 月 9 日）大盘弱势整理，震荡回调。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3342 点，下跌 0.3%；深成指收于 10126.83 点，下跌 0.69%；科创 50 下跌 1.96%；创业 板指下跌 0.87%，万得全 A 成交额共 12224 亿元，较 前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 5 个行业收涨，其中 银行、纺织服装及家电涨幅居前，而综合金融、国防 军工及计算机则跌幅较大。概念方面，央企银行、火 电及饲料精选等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指多数收跌，特斯拉大涨 4.72% 周五（5 月 9 日），美国三大股指多数收跌，道指跌 0.29%，标普 500 指数跌 0.07%，纳指持平。安进、默 克跌超 2%，领跌道指。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨 0.16%，特斯拉大涨 4.72%，苹果涨 0.53%。中概股涨 跌不一，理想汽车跌 2.2%。 新闻精要 1. 中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行 2. 证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 3. 4 月我国 CPI 环比由上月下降 0.4%转为上涨 0.1% 4. 王毅分别同印巴双方通电话 风 ...