Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on precious metals, industrial metals, strategic minor metals, and energy metals, with a particular emphasis on their performance in 2025 and outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to perform strongly in 2025 due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar. The bullish trend is anticipated to continue into 2026, driven by central bank purchases and concerns over dollar credibility [3][4][10]. - **Silver**: Exhibits both financial and industrial attributes, with significant upside potential as it transitions from reflecting solely financial attributes to incorporating industrial demand. Companies like Shanjin International and Shengda Resources are recommended for investment [5][11]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Benefited from financial attributes and supply constraints over the past two years. Strong demand is expected to continue from both traditional and emerging sectors. A shift towards recovery in trading is anticipated in the second half of 2026, with high copper prices stimulating production resumption [6][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The investment logic is based on its resource attributes and potential to replace copper in certain applications. A strong performance is expected in 2026, contingent on the pace of China's economic recovery [7][14][15]. Strategic Minor Metals - **Rare Earths and Tungsten**: Supply constraints due to strict Chinese controls are expected to drive prices up. The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China dynamics, will significantly influence the market [3][8][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market outlook is driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage. Despite some challenges in new supply due to policy restrictions, the demand remains robust, suggesting a favorable trading environment [9]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by economic recession pressures and supply constraints. The focus will gradually shift towards demand in 2026 as economic recovery progresses [2]. - The strategic positioning of companies in the precious metals sector, particularly those with low valuations, is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity [4][10]. - The anticipated tightening of supply in the copper market due to unexpected disruptions in major mines is noted, which could lead to a significant price increase in 2026 [15]. - The importance of geopolitical factors and policy changes in shaping the supply dynamics of strategic minor metals is emphasized, particularly in the context of global trade tensions [8][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions and inventory dynamics [1][4]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a general recovery in economic sentiment [1][14]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell below expectations, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [2][15]. - Geopolitical tensions escalated with U.S. military actions in Venezuela, raising security risks in the region [3][16]. - China is tightening regulations on copper and alumina production capacity in its new five-year plan, aiming to curb disorderly investments [4][17]. - CME raised margin requirements for precious metals futures twice within two weeks, impacting silver prices while potentially supporting gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [5][18]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector slightly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [9]. - Industrial metals showed a notable performance, with copper prices rising and inventory imbalances becoming more pronounced [19][22]. - Precious metals faced downward pressure due to margin increases, but geopolitical tensions may drive gold prices higher [31][36]. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on LME reached $12,460.50 per ton, up 2.70% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices were at ¥98,240.00 per ton, down 0.49% [19][22]. - LME aluminum prices increased to $3,021.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥22,925.00 per ton [19][22]. - Zinc prices on LME were $3,127.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥23,275.00 per ton [20][21]. - Inventory levels for copper on LME decreased by 5.98% to 145,325 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 30.11% to 145,342 tons [23]. Strategic Metal Insights - Cobalt prices rose due to supply constraints, with electrolytic cobalt priced at ¥456,000 per ton [40][41]. - Tungsten prices continued to rise, supported by supply reductions and policy controls, with average prices for tungsten bars at ¥1,180.00 per kg [46][48]. - The report emphasizes the potential for strategic metals and small metals to experience valuation reconstruction opportunities due to ongoing export control measures and market dynamics [57].

证券之星消息，1月5日能源金属板块较上一交易日上涨2.74%，藏格矿业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4023.42，上涨1.38%。深证成指报收于13828.63，上涨2.24%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 68.00 | -0.38% | 68.53万 | 46.66/Z | | 301219 | 腾远钻业 | 68.05 | -0.34% | 6.10万 | 4.15 Z | | 600711 | 暨电矿业 | 15.14 | -0.13% | 120.20万 | 18.12 乙 | | 300618 | 寒锐钻业 | 45.57 | 0.80% | 8.53万 | 3.87亿 | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 66.01 | 0.93% | 3.80万 | 2.50亿 | | 0027 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the industry style is shifting from technology growth to upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumption as the PPI decline narrows and turns positive [1] - In the MSCI China A-share ESG sector, three main directions are highlighted: cyclical recovery industries such as energy metals, wind power equipment, and engineering machinery; technology growth areas like AI computing power and energy storage; and consumer recovery sectors including food and beverage, social services, and personal care [1] - The anti-involution policy is improving the supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, combined with resilient overseas demand, indicating a continued trend of profit recovery in ESG-related industries [1] Group 2 - The MSCI ESG ETF (159621) tracks the MSCI China A-share Renminbi ESG General Index (MSC278), which selects listed companies with robust ESG performance and positive improvement trends from the Chinese A-share market [1] - The index employs an industry-balanced distribution strategy, leaning towards core asset allocation, aiming to reflect the overall market performance of high-quality Chinese A-share companies that adhere to ESG investment principles [1]

1月5日，天齐锂业盘中上涨2.02%，截至10:47，报56.50元/股，成交15.91亿元，换手率1.94%，总市值 927.28亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入9318.12万元，特大单买入1.82亿元，占比11.44%，卖出1.77亿元，占比 11.13%；大单买入4.47亿元，占比28.08%，卖出3.58亿元，占比22.53%。 天齐锂业今年以来股价涨2.02%，近5个交易日涨1.75%，近20日涨9.94%，近60日涨10.07%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，天齐锂业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股6815.91万股，相比上期增加334.16万股。中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第五大流通股 东，持股2785.36万股，持股数量较上期不变。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第六大流通股东， 持股1758.00万股，相比上期减少81.68万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第七大流通股东，持股 1272.61万股，相比上期减少39.93万股。华夏沪深300ETF（510330）位居第八大流通股东，持股949.62 万股，相比上期减少1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela, which may delay exports of tin, nickel, and bauxite, leading to short-term price stimulation but limited long-term effects. The focus remains on precious metals as safe-haven assets, with a positive outlook on lithium, copper, aluminum, gold, silver, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] - The report notes that gold and silver prices have seen a decline, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4324.5 and $70.5 per ounce, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of -4.79% and -7.69%. The Federal Reserve's indication of potential rate cuts post-December is expected to influence market sentiment positively [2] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to show price elasticity due to supply constraints, with LME copper closing at $12496.5 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week. The report also mentions a strike at Capstone Mining's Mantoverde copper mine, which could impact supply [2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have decreased, with COMEX gold at $4324.5/oz and silver at $70.5/oz. The market sentiment is influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and increased central bank and ETF purchases [2] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, and others in the gold sector [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply constraints, with LME copper at $12496.5/ton and a notable strike affecting production. The report indicates a potential increase in exports post-holiday [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices remain strong, with LME aluminum at $2997.0/ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but a decrease in downstream demand due to high prices [3] - Suggested companies include China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum [3] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at 327680 yuan/ton. The report anticipates continued high prices due to supply concerns from major producing regions [9] - Companies to watch include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings [9] Strategic Metals - The report highlights a positive outlook for lithium, with prices at 121580 yuan/ton, driven by increasing demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries [10] - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 460000 yuan/ton [10] - Companies of interest include Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [10][11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are expected to rise, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide at 607500 yuan/ton and 596500 yuan/ton, respectively. The report notes a potential recovery in export demand [12] - Recommended companies include Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [12]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a strong fluctuation in lithium prices in the short term, supported by a backdrop of price reassessment across key metals [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel and coal production in 2026, which, combined with Vale's suspension of nickel mining, is expected to tighten supply and support nickel prices [1] - The cobalt market is expected to remain structurally tight, with prices likely to rise further due to ongoing supply constraints [2][5] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery in exports, which may lead to domestic prices converging with higher international prices [6][18] - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with prices expected to remain strong due to stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [8][19] - The rare earth market is tightening due to new export restrictions from Vietnam, which may further support prices [20] - The tin market faces uncertainties in supply due to ongoing issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's government plans to cut nickel production by approximately 34% in 2026, reducing the target to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Vale's Indonesian operations have halted nickel mining, contributing to supply tightness [1] - The cobalt market is expected to face structural supply constraints, with prices projected to rise due to a decrease in available export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise as supply remains tight, particularly with winter mining activities slowing down [6][18] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls that may further tighten supply and support higher domestic prices [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 118,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a 16.76% rise [8] - Continuous destocking in the lithium market is expected to support prices, with demand from the electric vehicle sector remaining robust [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - New export restrictions from Vietnam are expected to tighten global rare earth supply, supporting prices [20] - China continues to dominate the rare earth supply chain, with significant production capacity compared to other countries [20] Tin Industry Update - The tin market is facing uncertainties due to supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] - Recent increases in tin imports from Myanmar may help alleviate some supply concerns, but overall uncertainty remains [21]

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 01 年 月 日 有色金属 2026 年度策略：物少天成贵，势来价自高 贵金属：白银王者归来，黄金仍将闪耀。2026 年美联储仍有降息必要性，货 币政策基准情形将维持适度宽松。黄金方面，全球央行增持黄金热度不减；黄 金 ETF 往往在降息周期中持续流入。ETF 与央行共振下黄金牛市有望延续。 白银方面，2025 年白银 ETF 持仓显著提升，金融属性主导银价上涨。我们认 为，市场高估了工业需求的影响，而低估了金融属性所带来的投资需求拉动。 同时，尽管 2025 年银价涨幅超过黄金，但目前金银比仍然显示银价相对金价 低估。银价在 2025 年大幅上涨后，金银比依然位于 70 以上的历史偏高水平。 历史上看，金银比多数时间运行在 40-80 区间，目前金银比仍显示银价相对于 金价处于低估状态。 铜：供需缺口明确，铜价上行斜率提升。①宏观面：2026 年中美关键年份再 度重合，"关税退坡+财货双松"支撑铜价牛市加速。②供给端：供给矛盾在 2026 年依然存在，CAPEX 回升需要更高铜价激励。我们认为供给扰动的集中 发生也并非简单的"黑天鹅"事件 ...