机构依然预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 据新华社，美国东部时间6月23日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期12天的冲突 即将结束。 这一出人意料的消息引爆全球金融市场，此前因避险需求而大涨的美元被抛售，油价大跌。截至北京时间24日16:30左右，美元指数报98.13，美元/人民币报 7.1778，美元/离岸人民币报7.1760，WTI油价报66.31美元/桶。 高盛表示，由于供给大于需求，仍维持年末对布伦特油价60美元以下的预测。同时，接受记者采访的外资行交易员和分析师普遍认为，如果中东冲突出现真 正的缓和甚至终结迹象，特朗普可能会将注意力重新转向他眼中的"敌人"——美联储主席鲍威尔，打压美元的结构性因素仍然存在。从中期来看，机构依然 预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 WTI原油期货 ↓ 66.37 -2.14 (-3.12%) d=d=0+0+0+0+0+0 a 4 * 0 = 0 # + = T 4+4 + 80= 2 + III __ | 18 "25 早前 ...

Market Environment Changes - The financial market is undergoing profound changes due to rapid advancements in financial technology, deepening globalization, and evolving regulatory policies, especially in the post-pandemic era where digital transformation has become a consensus across industries [3] - Financial services are shifting towards digitalization and intelligence, and companies like Rongyi Alliance recognize the need to adapt to these trends to remain competitive in the future market [3] Introduction of Innovative Technologies - Rongyi Alliance is investing heavily in financial technology, particularly in blockchain, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics, which enhance transaction transparency and security while providing more personalized financial services [3] - The development of blockchain technology by Rongyi Alliance aims to optimize asset management processes, improve cross-border transaction efficiency, and reduce operational costs, enabling competition with emerging fintech companies [3] Global Vision Expansion - Rongyi Alliance is not only focusing on domestic market development but is also actively expanding its international business, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and European markets, through mergers, strategic partnerships, and resource enhancement to better serve multinational corporate financing needs [3][4] Commitment to Sustainable Development - The company emphasizes sustainable development and social responsibility by responding to "dual carbon" policies and supporting the development of the environmental protection industry through green finance projects, integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles into investment decisions [5] Talent Development and Team Building - Recognizing that "people are the first asset," Rongyi Alliance is increasing efforts in talent acquisition and development, establishing a high-quality professional team through diversified training systems and career development pathways to meet future market challenges [6] - The layout for the 2025 financial market presents both challenges and opportunities for Rongyi Alliance, as they lay a solid foundation for growth through technological innovation, global expansion, sustainable development, and talent cultivation [6]

Group 1: Event Background - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy [1] - In the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions, issues such as policy compliance, financing costs, and transaction structures have become core topics for cross-border M&A [1] - Despite the challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that possess industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) will hold an offline seminar in Beijing to discuss the challenges and potential opportunities faced by Chinese companies in M&A processes in 2025 [1] Group 2: Event Information - The seminar is scheduled for July 10, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00 at the LSEG Beijing office [2] - The agenda includes a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year, discussions on capital sensing amid global tariff conflicts, and new opportunities for listed companies in cross-border M&A [2] Group 3: Key Speakers - Liu Chengwei, a partner at Global Law Firm, specializes in M&A restructuring, private equity investment, and capital markets, and has authored a popular book on acquisition solutions [3] - Feng Kai, a senior investment banking data manager at LSEG, has 16 years of experience in transaction data and is responsible for M&A data in mainland China and Taiwan [4] - Ling Yufeng, a senior client learning manager at LSEG Academy, has nearly 20 years of experience providing financial information solutions training and consulting [6] - Xu Chang, the sales head for data business in China at LSEG, has been with Reuters since 2007 and focuses on data solutions for asset management and investment banking clients in mainland China [7]

Core Points - The ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated significantly, particularly following a recent U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which has led to threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [1][2][4] Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - The U.S. conducted airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities using 125 aircraft and 75 precision-guided munitions, marking a significant military escalation [2] - Following the airstrikes, the U.S. has bolstered its air defenses in the region, deploying nearly 40 refueling aircraft to Europe and moving two aircraft carriers closer to the Middle East [3] Group 2: Oil Market Implications - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for global oil trade, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 20% of global consumption [5] - If Iran were to close the Strait, oil prices could surge past $100 per barrel, with Brent crude prices already rising by 13% and WTI by about 10% since the onset of the conflict [4][5] Group 3: International Reactions - The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting to address the U.S. airstrikes, with calls for de-escalation and dialogue from various international leaders [6][7] - China and Russia have proposed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and protection of civilians, emphasizing the need for international cooperation to stabilize the region [7]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has launched an artificial intelligence assistant across the entire company [1] Group 1 - The AI assistant aims to enhance operational efficiency and support decision-making processes within the organization [1]

内部备忘录显示，高盛在全公司范围内推出人工智能助手。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the heightened tensions following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply [1][2] - Two supertankers, Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty, altered their course in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating immediate market reactions to geopolitical tensions, with one vessel returning to the strait and the other remaining outside the Persian Gulf [1][2] - Brent crude oil futures experienced a significant fluctuation, dropping approximately 6% from intraday highs, yet analysts warn that the risk of closure could push prices above $120 per barrel [1][3] Group 2 - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route, with about 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily, and even partial disruptions could significantly impact global oil transportation [2] - Analysts from RBC Capital Markets caution that it may take days or weeks to assess Iran's true response to the situation, emphasizing that the risk is not yet over [2] - Strategic restraint from Iran has been noted, as they have not escalated to more severe actions, but limited actions could still lead shipping companies to avoid the region [2] Group 3 - Multiple investment banks have issued warnings about the potential for oil prices to surge, with JPMorgan predicting prices could reach $130 per barrel and Goldman Sachs suggesting a worst-case scenario of $150 per barrel [3] - UBS highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to disruptions greater than those experienced during the 2022 Russian supply crisis, potentially driving prices above $120 [3] - The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran is expected to have significant implications for international oil prices, with potential price spikes affecting stock and currency markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting views of major investment banks regarding the future of gold prices, with Citigroup warning of a potential end to the gold bull market, while Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish target of $4,000 per ounce [1] Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - Citigroup issues a warning that the gold bull market may be coming to an end due to potential selling pressure from the funds [1] - Goldman Sachs supports a target price of $4,000 for gold, suggesting that central bank demand could offset the effects of a "peace dividend" [1] Group 2: Market Signals - There is a significant risk signal indicated by the dollar short positions reaching a 19-year peak, suggesting a potential for a historic short squeeze in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran could significantly impact international oil prices, potentially driving them to a range of $120-150 per barrel in extreme scenarios [1][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Goldman Sachs' commodity research team has reassessed risk scenarios due to Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that current oil prices include a geopolitical risk premium of about $10 per barrel [2]. - The market is preparing for a significant increase in oil prices over the coming months, although long-term expectations remain largely unchanged [2][3]. - In the event of a supply disruption, Brent crude oil prices could peak slightly above $90 per barrel, depending on the recovery of Iranian supply and OPEC+ production adjustments [2]. Group 2: Potential Disruption Scenarios - Four potential conflict escalation scenarios have been constructed by Goldman Sachs, with varying impacts on oil prices [4]. - In the baseline scenario, if geopolitical tensions persist without significant supply disruptions, Brent crude is expected to maintain a risk premium of $5-7, trading around $72 per barrel [5]. - If Israel attacks Iranian oil-related assets, oil prices could rise to the $80-90 per barrel range due to expected Iranian retaliation [6]. - In a scenario where Iran retaliates against regional assets, oil prices could clearly rise towards $100 per barrel [8]. - The most severe scenario involves Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 15-17 million barrels of oil supply daily, which could push prices to the $120-150 range [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The geopolitical tensions have led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, impacting currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars [10]. - A rapid increase in oil prices to $100 could negatively impact risk assets, with the S&P 500 potentially facing a decline of 200-300 points, particularly affecting AI-related stocks due to high concentration [10]. - The response in interest rate markets is complex, with potential inflation concerns from rising oil prices, but the Federal Reserve may overlook temporary price changes [10].

美国对伊朗核设施打击为何未撼动全球市场？ 据央视新闻、环球网报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊 朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击，并表示"伊朗的福尔多（核设施）已不存在"。 然而，全球金融市场对美国袭击伊朗核设施的反应相对温和。据华尔街见闻此前提及，周一，美股期货低开后跌幅 收窄，原油、黄金冲高后回落转跌。截至下午1时，全球MSCI指数仅下跌0.12%。 传统避险资产表现分化，日元兑美元下跌0.64%，现货黄金价格下滑0.23%至每盎司3360美元，美元指数上涨 0.35%。 分析推测，此次美国军事行动后的市场波动明显较小，主要是因为投资者预期特朗普政府的军事干预将是短暂的， 主要目标是威慑而非长期冲突。 地缘政治风险被视为可控 市场对美国军事行动的温和反应主要源于投资者对冲突范围的乐观预期。 Wedbush管理董事Dan Ives表示，市场将对伊朗的袭击视为利好消息，因为该地区的核威胁已经消除。 他进一步表示，目前看不到伊朗与以色列冲突向更广泛地区蔓延的迹象，事件影响较为"孤立"。 其他行业专家也普遍认为，尽管事态严重，但并未构成全球市场的系统 ...