Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the "rush to export" market caused by the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy boosts market confidence and improves the extremely sluggish demand in the off - season. The increase in component exports from January to March will drive the growth of polysilicon demand. But if enterprises do not actively cut production to digest inventory, polysilicon prices will face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [2][21]. - In the long run, cost control and technological optimization are the core competitiveness of enterprises and key variables affecting the long - term trend of polysilicon futures. As the industry returns to a market - oriented competition order, the supply - demand pattern will shift from "oversupply and high inventory" to a healthy state, and the futures price will more accurately reflect the real value of the industry [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Influence - Since May 2025, rumors and measures related to polysilicon capacity storage have dominated the sentiment and price trend of polysilicon futures, showing characteristics of "expected - driven rise - regulatory cooling and shock - policy reversal and sharp decline". The establishment of the capacity integration and acquisition platform "Guanghe Qiancheng" in December 2025 drove the futures price to a high of 61,985 yuan/ton on December 17. However, subsequent regulatory interventions, including the market supervision department's约谈 of leading enterprises in January 2026, reversed the policy expectation, causing a sharp decline in the futures price [4]. Current Situation of the Polysilicon Industry - From January 2023 to December 2025, the polysilicon industry's over - supply is a long - term problem with periodic adjustments. The mismatch between production expansion and demand, and the subsequent supply rebound after industry adjustment, have led to continuous over - supply. The industry's high inventory, reaching 32,234 tons for polysilicon enterprises and over 500,000 tons in the industrial chain by 2026, will suppress prices in the first half of 2026 [7][9]. - Before 2024, the photovoltaic industry chain had high profitability. After 2024, intensified competition led to profit decline. In the second half of 2025, profits concentrated in the polysilicon segment, while downstream segments suffered losses. The anti - monopoly约谈 in January 2026 will reshape the profit distribution logic, promoting a return to market - oriented rationality [10][13]. Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates - From April 1, 2026, the 13% VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products will be zeroed, and the tax - rebate rate for power batteries will be gradually reduced to zero. Before April 1, a "rush to export" is likely to occur. It is estimated that the demand for polysilicon may increase by 1 - 1.5 tons per month, and the oversupply may be reduced to less than 10,000 tons. However, after April, the demand will face pressure, and enterprises need to cut production [16][18]. Polysilicon Futures - In the short term, the "rush to export" will drive polysilicon demand growth. But without production cuts, prices will face downward pressure in the medium and long term. In the long run, cost control and technological optimization will drive the industry to a more balanced state, and the futures price will better reflect the real value of the industry [21].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Polysilicon Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Futures: Multiple polysilicon contracts hit the daily limit down. The PS2605 contract closed at 49,995 yuan/ton, down 2.89%. Trading volume was 42,510 lots, and open interest was 48,830 lots, a net decrease of 2,113 lots. The top 20 long positions decreased by 3,262 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 2,095 lots [4] - Spot: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10.5% [4] Market Outlook - Policy and Risk: In the 2026 polysilicon annual report, it was noted that the contradiction between involution and monopoly requires policy to balance market and moral risks. Since January 7, the policy has shifted from anti-involution to anti-monopoly, and the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products is negative. The exchange's risk control is strict, so it is advisable to wait and see [5] - Supply and Demand: Although the polysilicon price has moved up, the fundamentals are not expected to improve. The expected output of polysilicon in January is about 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream has entered a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices has squeezed the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off-season. The expected output of silicon wafers, cells, and modules is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. As of the second week of January, the polysilicon spot inventory was 311,800 tons [5] Group 3: Market News - On January 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,430 lots, an increase of 50 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Bearish [6] - Polysilicon: Neutral (Suggested to wait and see) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Sideways [85] Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and with the strengthening expectation of polysilicon production cuts, the support below the price is weak [6]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, and the existing "anti-involution" measures may violate "anti-monopoly" regulations, leading to a revaluation of the polysilicon price. Future prices may continue to correct the previous policy expectations of "anti-involution." Due to the high speculative atmosphere in the polysilicon futures market and large price fluctuations, the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures, resulting in poor contract liquidity [7]. - In terms of demand for lithium carbonate, there are more production suspensions and maintenance in the material sector in January, and the scheduled production has decreased month-on-month, but the prosperity is higher than in previous years. In terms of supply, the scheduled production in January has decreased, and there is no sign of large-scale production increase. The weekly data shows a slight increase in production and a slight accumulation of inventory, indicating obvious off-season characteristics. Coupled with the large short - term increase and a large number of profit - taking positions, the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 80,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77%; the number of open furnaces is 228, a week - on - week decrease of 3. The production in January is scheduled to be 377,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%; the weekly production of silicone is 44,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline significantly [6]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 512,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%; the industry inventory is 457,900 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the warehouse receipt inventory is 54,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.42% [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,088 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the gross profit per ton is - 97 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the price support is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in environmental protection policies [6]. Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%. The production in January is scheduled to be 107,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.26GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.97%. The factory inventory is 26.23GW, a week - on - week increase of 13.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%, with continuous inventory accumulation; the registered warehouse receipts are 13,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.93%, with continuous increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 42,795 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the gross profit per ton is 16,415 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 7,437 yuan [7]. - **News**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has required the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the interviewed enterprises not to engage in monopolistic behavior and has asked them to submit written rectification measures by January 20 [7]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. The weak fundamentals of polysilicon and the potential violation of "anti - monopoly" regulations by "anti - involution" measures have led to a revaluation of the price. The contract liquidity is poor, and investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in "anti - involution" policies [7]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 22,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%. The production in January is scheduled to be about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [85]. - **Import**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 677,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year increase of 40.42% [85]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate is 99,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34%; the weekly production of ternary materials is 18,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline [85]. - **Terminal Demand**: In November, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03%; the sales volume was 1.823 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.27% and a year - on - year increase of 20.59%. The cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage from January to November was 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [85]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the lithium salt factory inventory is 18,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05%; the downstream inventory is 91,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.04% [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external ore purchase is 130,468 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.88%; the production profit is 2,792 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,340 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 134,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.64%; the production profit is 2,351 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,619 yuan/ton [85]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The lithium carbonate market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sideways on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of ore production cuts, changes in environmental protection policies, and the disturbances of large power battery manufacturers [85].

Group 1: Macro Overview - The US non-farm employment population increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 60,000 and the previous value of 64,000 [18] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [18] - The Federal Reserve report indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November [18] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply sentiment, supported by the ongoing strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile [19] - January electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [19] - In November, net imports of refined copper decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [19] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of January 9, global visible copper inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 961,000 tons, with LME inventory decreasing by 8,450 tons to 138,975 tons [19] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 34,900 tons week-on-week to 273,800 tons, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [19] - The copper price has risen again, but downstream enterprises are purchasing cautiously, focusing on essential needs [19] Group 4: Policy Impact on Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% [20] - The market anticipates a rush to export in the first quarter, which may temporarily boost demand for certain commodities, making it difficult for prices to sustain a downward trend [20] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival, with a focus on feedback regarding the new policy [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodities are in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is entering the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [6]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but limited by high inventory and weak terminal orders. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, demand is weak, and the overall weak pattern remains unchanged [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.75%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55,633 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.7149 million lots, a decrease of 66,939 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 112,237 tons, an increase of 3536 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4171 million lots, a decrease of 23,805 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory decreased slightly. Rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory accumulated slightly. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news, and attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil de - stocking and "dual - carbon" policies [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 814.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.18% (+ 1.50). The position changed by + 3210 lots to 639,900 lots. The weighted position was 963,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.27% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines ended, and the overseas shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries also decreased. The near - end arrival volume increased. Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to rise, some blast furnaces resumed production, and the utilization rate of previously resumed blast furnaces recovered. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventory increased but was still at a low level, with some restocking demand [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.20% at 5904 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5740 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated sharply, and the silicon iron price also fluctuated greatly, and both finally declined [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of silicon iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.46% at 1195.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.96% at 1748.0 yuan/ton. Different spot prices and their basis with the main contracts are provided [13]. - Last week, the coking coal price rose significantly, and the coke price also rose [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The rise of coking coal last week was driven by the positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of production capacity reduction. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8715 yuan/ton, up 2.11% (+ 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,806 lots to 379,975 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with corresponding basis [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The production in December was stable, the number of open furnaces in the southwest was at a low level, and the supply improvement was limited. The polysilicon production plan in January continued to decline, and if the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, it will impact the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 4.31% (- 2310). The weighted contract position decreased by 7303 lots to 97,286 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased, with a basis of 3700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment affected the price. The spot price increased before the Spring Festival, but the downstream is waiting and watching. If the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: On Friday, the main contract of glass closed at 1144 yuan/ton, down 1.63% (- 19). The inventory of float glass enterprises decreased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [24]. - Soda Ash: On Friday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 11). The inventory of soda ash enterprises increased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: The daily melting volume decreased, and the cost increased, boosting the price. However, the terminal orders are weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Soda Ash: The supply is stable, the demand from downstream glass industries decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for both industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are "oscillation" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, will lead to a significant rush of exports in Q1 2026, but it is a negative factor for demand in the whole - year perspective. After the rush - export period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [2][11][12] - In the short term, leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises will maintain price - holding strategies, but the possibility of price - testing at lower prices by second - and third - tier enterprises increases. Polycrystalline silicon prices may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2][16] - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. In the short term, industrial silicon may operate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval operation opportunities [3][18][19] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 145 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,715 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polycrystalline silicon decreased by 6,620 yuan/ton week - on - week to 51,300 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials from the Silicon Industry Association increased by 5,300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 59,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polycrystalline Silicon - There were many industry news this week, including rumors of production cuts by leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises, the market supervision department's interview with the photovoltaic industry association and leading enterprises, and the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [11] - It is expected that there will be a significant rush of exports of photovoltaic products in Q1 2026. The expected domestic component production in Q1 2026 is revised upwards to 125GW, a 31% increase from the previous expectation. After April 2026, the annual component export volume is expected to decline by 5 - 10%, and the annual component production will be reduced to about 468GW, a 3% decrease from the previous expectation [12] - During the rush - export window period, downstream sectors have the hope of price increases, but in the whole - year view, the profit pressure on downstream enterprises is greater. After the window period, the cancellation of the export tax rebate will intensify the losses of component enterprises [13] - During the rush - export window period, polycrystalline silicon prices still depend on the price alliance. After the window period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [14] 3. Industrial Silicon - This week, the number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 1, Shaanxi increased by 1, and Qinghai decreased by 1. Yunnan's operation rate remained low. An integrated large - scale enterprise may cut industrial silicon production in Sichuan to zero by the end of the month [17] - The improvement of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. The reduction of polycrystalline silicon production is expected to match that of industrial silicon, having no marginal impact on the supply - demand of industrial silicon. The organic silicon price is expected to rise further, and the supply side may adjust due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be in a tight balance from January to February, and there will be significant inventory accumulation after March if the Xinjiang large - scale enterprise resumes production [18] 4. Hot News Compilation - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [20] - A leading enterprise raised the silicon wafer quotation, but no other silicon wafer enterprises followed, and downstream battery enterprises did not accept the price increase. Market sentiment is becoming more wait - and - see [20] 5. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Industrial Chain 5.1 Industrial Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's oxygen - blown 553 spot price, 99 - silicon spot price, national and regional industrial silicon weekly output, and social and factory inventories [22][24][28] 5.2 Organic Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's DMC spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [30][31] 5.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's polycrystalline silicon spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][39] 5.4 Silicon Wafers - Relevant data charts include China's silicon wafer spot price, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output, as well as profit calculations [41][43][45] 5.5 Battery Cells - Relevant data charts include China's battery cell spot price, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [46][47][49] 5.6 Components - Relevant data charts include China's component spot price, component finished - product inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [53][56][58]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is influenced by Indonesian policy news, with differences in expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless - steel prices may also show wide - range fluctuations. The key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory has decreased, and attention should be paid to downstream production cuts. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in sentiment, with the supply - demand situation showing a pattern of weak supply and strong demand. It is recommended to short industrial silicon at high levels [28][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The "rush - to - export" demand may boost off - season demand, and lithium prices are likely to remain strong. It is recommended to use options for hedging [65][66][68]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation, with a potential short - term reaction of negative news being digested after the MPOB report. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [99][100][102]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuations of soybean meal and soybean No.1 mainly depend on the USDA report. If the report is positive, soybean meal prices are expected to rise; otherwise, they will remain in a low - level oscillation [113][114][119]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although there are some negative factors, the price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [133][134][138]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation. Attention should be paid to Brazilian production and export rhythms, Indian production and policies, and domestic import policies [157][159][184]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. The domestic cotton market lacks new drivers, and it is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [185][186][201]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [203][204][206]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [220][221]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Influencing Factors**: News mainly includes the 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target in Indonesia, the consideration of including associated minerals in the pricing and taxation system, and fines for illegal mining [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary - market funds. Stainless - steel prices may follow nickel prices and are also affected by cost and fundamental factors [8][9]. - **Inventory Situation**: Refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories have different trends. For example, on January 9, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,306 tons [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices adjusted downward [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased. The overall industry inventory showed different trends [29][30][33]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon is recommended to be shorted at high levels, and polysilicon is expected to be in a certain price range [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices continued to rise [65]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was uncertain. Inventory increased [66][67]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium prices are likely to remain strong, and it is recommended to use options for hedging [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Situation**: Palm oil was supported in the short - term, and soybean oil followed the range - bound operation of the oil and fat sector [99]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil may have a short - term reaction of negative news being digested, and soybean oil is waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [100][102]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Previous Week's Situation**: U.S. soybean prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices showed different trends [113][114]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Price fluctuations depend on the USDA report [119]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot and futures prices rose in the week of January 9. The basis of the main contract weakened [133][134]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn rose, wheat prices fell, and corn starch inventory increased. The price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [135][136][138]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: International and domestic sugar prices showed different trends. Fund positions and production data in different countries changed [157][158]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation [159][184]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. Domestic cotton prices also fluctuated [185][186]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [201]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: Spot prices were strong and oscillating, and futures prices were oscillating. The basis of the LH2603 contract increased [203][204]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [205][206]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [220]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [221].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the significant drop in polysilicon prices, indicating the collapse of the previously anticipated "price alliance" in the solar industry, leading to a harsh competition phase characterized by cost elimination [2][3] - The initial stability in polysilicon prices was attributed to hopes of a self-regulating alliance among leading companies to control production and stabilize prices, which had previously led to a 40% price rebound [2][3] - The regulatory intervention from the market supervision authority clarified that the government aims to eliminate vicious competition and does not support price-fixing agreements, effectively shattering the industry's hopes for a collaborative pricing strategy [3][4] Group 2 - The current reality reveals a significant oversupply in polysilicon production, with total domestic capacity reaching approximately 2.65 million tons, while the estimated demand for 2026 is only about 1.45 million tons, resulting in a surplus of nearly 1.2 million tons [4] - The industry is also burdened by high inventory levels, which exacerbate the oversupply situation and hinder price recovery efforts [4] Group 3 - The article highlights the recent surge in coking coal prices, driven by news from a major coal-producing province regarding the removal of certain coal mines from the supply guarantee list, affecting approximately 19 million tons of production capacity [7][8] - Market sentiment is influenced by the potential shift in coal production policies, raising concerns about future supply constraints and the overall balance in the coal market [8][10] Group 4 - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a significant price increase, with the main contract closing at nearly 138,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 9% rise in a single day, driven by both supply constraints and resilient demand [12][16] - Supply-side issues include environmental regulations affecting lithium extraction in key regions, as well as production halts at major mines, which contribute to a tightening supply outlook [14][15] - Demand for lithium remains strong, particularly from the energy storage sector, which supports the overall market despite seasonal fluctuations in electric vehicle demand [16][17] Group 5 - The article discusses the impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC products, which is expected to increase costs for exporters and potentially reduce profit margins, leading to a bearish outlook for the PVC market [30][31] - The PVC industry is already facing challenges from high inventory levels and weak demand, particularly in the construction sector, which is closely tied to the real estate market's performance [32][33]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is set to face a critical test with the start of the Q4 earnings season, particularly with major banks reporting their results and the upcoming release of the December CPI data, which is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1][15] - SpaceX has received approval from the FCC to increase its Starlink satellite constellation by 7,500 units, bringing the total to 15,000, which is expected to enhance global internet service capabilities and is a key component of its IPO plan with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion [1][15] Group 2 - The Chinese government has initiated a strong intervention in the food delivery industry to end "involution" competition, promoting a shift from price wars to value-driven strategies, focusing on supply chain optimization and service enhancement [2][16] - Major supermarkets like Sam's Club and Costco have seen a surge in demand for affordable down jackets, with a notable product selling out quickly, reflecting a shift in consumer perception towards high-quality, cost-effective options [2][16] Group 3 - Following the announcement of closing seven stores, IKEA experienced a surge in customer traffic, with long queues forming as consumers anticipated clearance sales, although the actual discount events will not start until January 15 [3][16] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing significant volatility due to regulatory scrutiny, with major companies facing market downturns as a result of antitrust discussions, leading to a pessimistic outlook on pricing mechanisms and supply-demand dynamics [4][17] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, with the value of global official gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in 30 years, indicating a shift in global reserve asset preferences [18] - Several regions in China have raised the upper limit for urban and rural residents' basic pension insurance contributions, with Yunnan becoming the first province to set the cap at 10,000 yuan per year, aimed at encouraging higher personal account accumulation [5][18] Group 5 - The chairman of Microchip Technology, known as the "father of China's etching machine," plans to reduce his stake in the company due to tax-related matters after restoring his Chinese nationality, which may impact the company's strategic direction [6][19] - The commercial aerospace concept has become a recent market hotspot, positively affecting the stock prices of several wind power companies, as they seek new growth avenues through diversification into aerospace-related businesses [12][24] Group 6 - The price of lithium carbonate has surged past 140,000 yuan per ton, increasing by 19% in just six days, driven by supply disruptions and rising demand from the power and storage sectors, with a notable shift in pricing mechanisms observed [13][24]