Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is undergoing a silent yet profound revolution driven by global climate governance and energy transformation, with a focus on decarbonization and technological innovation [1] Group 1: System Reconstruction - Electrification represents a fundamental change in the shipping industry, shifting from mechanical to electric drive systems, requiring a complete overhaul of energy distribution and propulsion systems [2] - European companies like ABB and Wärtsilä are leading with integrated energy platforms, while Chinese firms are rapidly catching up in the back-end of the supply chain, showcasing significant advancements in battery technology [3] - Hybrid power solutions are gaining traction in new builds and retrofits, allowing vessels to achieve zero emissions in emission control areas while maintaining operational efficiency [3] Group 2: Economic Challenges - The initial capital expenditure for advanced electric systems can be 20%-40% higher than traditional vessels, necessitating new business models and financial innovations to absorb the green premium [4] - Financial institutions in China are providing preferential loans for green vessels, and energy management contracts are being explored to lower the barriers for technology adoption [4] Group 3: Automation to Autonomy - The shift towards data-driven operations is transforming the industry from single-vessel automation to integrated ship-shore smart operations, enhancing fuel efficiency and predictive maintenance [5][6] - Chinese companies are developing digital infrastructure for smart shipping, while advancements in autonomous navigation technologies are being made, indicating a growing domestic capability [6] Group 4: Decarbonization Challenges - The choice of green fuels such as LNG, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen presents a complex dilemma, with each option facing scrutiny regarding its lifecycle carbon emissions [8] - The lack of global infrastructure for green fuel supply creates a "chicken and egg" problem, hindering investment in green fuel-powered vessels [8][9] Group 5: Global Collaboration and Governance - China's infrastructure development for charging and refueling facilities along domestic waterways serves as a testing ground for future global applications, but significant international cooperation and investment are required to replicate this success globally [9] - The future success of the shipping industry's transformation will depend on collaborative efforts across the global ecosystem, including diverse technological paths, innovative business models, and inclusive governance frameworks [10]

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [TaSummary] 今年以来，受资金风格切换等因素影响，交运板块核心红利资产标的均面临一定程度股价调整， 估值及股息率重回高性价比区间，显著领先十年期国债收益率，对于绝对收益资金吸引力逐步 提升。基于行业特征，我们重点推荐交运板块中具有低估值、高股息特征的垄断性资产，1）买 低波稳健+分红确定：优选高速公路龙头（招商公路以及宁沪高速等），以及大秦铁路与青岛港； 2）短期看，港股市场估值折价明显、股息率更具性价比，建议关注港股向上弹性。 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 当前时点，如何看待交运红利资产配置价值？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 当前时点，如 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Ocean Shipping Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Shandong Ocean") is preparing for an IPO with the support of Shenwan Hongyuan, aiming to optimize resource allocation through capital markets [1][2]. Company Overview - Established in March 2020 with a registered capital of 445 million yuan, Shandong Ocean is formed from the restructuring of Shandong Port Group's business segments [1]. - The company engages in various shipping services, including container transportation, oil product transportation, and passenger liner services [1]. Business Performance - Since its inception, Shandong Ocean has shown steady growth in revenue and profit, with a fleet of over 60 vessels and a total capacity exceeding 1.1 million deadweight tons [1]. - The company operates 40 container shipping routes, with continuous growth in cargo volume across its business lines [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a "daily service" brand for shipping between China and South Korea, enhancing trade and personnel exchanges [2]. - Shandong Ocean offers customized logistics solutions through its various service lines, including the Peninsula Express and oil transportation services [2]. Shareholding Structure - Shandong Port Group holds a 29.47% stake in Shandong Ocean, making it the controlling shareholder [2]. Parent Company Overview - Shandong Port Group is a significant state-owned enterprise with a comprehensive port network, including major ports and listed companies [3]. - The group has developed an integrated and international development pattern, supporting Shandong Ocean's potential listing as an additional platform for the group [3].

Core Insights - The global shipping trade is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, trade policy changes, climate impacts, and regulatory adjustments, leading to increased shipping costs [1] - The UNCTAD report predicts a significant slowdown in shipping trade growth to 0.5% in 2025, following steady growth in 2024 [1] Group 1: Shipping Costs and Trade Dynamics - Shipping routes are being altered due to various pressures, resulting in a 5.9% increase in global shipping ton-miles in 2024, which is nearly three times the growth rate of shipping volume [1] - Freight rate volatility has become the new norm, with container, bulk, and tanker freight rates expected to remain high in 2024 and 2025 [2] - Dry bulk freight rates surged in 2024 due to strong demand for coal, grains, and fertilizers, while tanker rates are projected to spike in June 2025 due to geopolitical factors [2] Group 2: Changes in Maritime Trade Patterns - The maritime energy trade landscape is shifting, with coal prices rebounding after a long decline, stable oil prices but longer transport routes, and rising natural gas prices [2] - The Suez Canal's tonnage is expected to remain 70% lower than 2023 levels by May 2025, while the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption risks, impacting 11% of global trade and one-third of maritime oil trade [2] Group 3: Fleet and Port Operations - As of January 2025, the global fleet consists of 112,500 vessels with a total deadweight of 2.44 billion tons, with Greece, China, and Japan accounting for over 40% of global capacity [4] - Port congestion is increasing, with average waiting times in developed economies rising by 23% to 6.4 hours, and by 7% to 10.9 hours in developing economies [4] Group 4: Connectivity and Environmental Challenges - The UNCTAD liner shipping connectivity index shows Asia remains dominant, while Africa's connectivity improved by 10% from June 2024 to June 2025 [5] - The shipping industry faces a deep transformation due to operational challenges and climate regulations, with significant investments needed for fleet renewal, alternative fuel expansion, and port infrastructure upgrades [5] - The EU carbon pricing is beginning to affect transportation costs and fleet choices, with the International Maritime Organization considering a "net-zero emissions framework" that could drive substantial investment [5]

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a mere 0.5% growth in global maritime trade volume for 2025, marking the slowest growth rate in recent years due to geopolitical tensions, new trade barriers, and climate change pressures reshaping shipping routes and increasing transportation costs [1][2] Group 1: Maritime Trade Growth - Global maritime trade is expected to grow by only 0.5% in 2025, significantly lower than the average growth rate of recent years [1] - The slowdown follows a period of expansion in 2024, indicating severe structural challenges facing maritime trade [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are leading to costly rerouting of shipping lanes, with certain countries' tariff policies disrupting trade flows [1] - Vulnerable economies are bearing the brunt of high and unstable freight costs [1] Group 3: Environmental Concerns - The shipping industry saw a 5% increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, with only 8% of the global fleet equipped for alternative fuels [1] - Clear regulatory policies and upgrades to the trading fleet are essential for reducing maritime carbon emissions [1] Group 4: Future Directions - The future of global maritime trade must transition towards zero carbon, digitalization, and new trade routes [2]

Group 1 - The opening of the "China-Europe Arctic Express" is beneficial for the company's development in the European industry by shortening shipping times [2] - The company has already utilized this shipping route, although the current shipping volume remains relatively small [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. dropped by 5.13% to 8.50 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 436 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.63%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 68.634 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on December 31, 2004, and listed on December 1, 2006, primarily engages in international crude oil, dry bulk, domestic roll-on/roll-off, and various cargo shipping services, with transportation services accounting for 86.38% of its revenue [1] - The company has its headquarters in Shanghai and additional offices in Hong Kong and Shenzhen [1] Group 2 - According to data, the China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. is the second-largest holding in the Jiayin Schroder Fund, with 1.013 million shares held, representing 1.55% of the fund's net value [2] - The Jiayin Multi-Strategy Return Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund has a total scale of 269 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 10.24% [2] - The fund manager, Wang Yiwei, has a tenure of 5 years and 304 days, with the best fund return during this period being 28.78% [2]

Core Insights - The global shipping industry is currently facing a highly uncertain and turbulent environment, as highlighted in a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) [1] - Following a steady growth in 2024, the growth rate of maritime trade is expected to significantly slow down to 0.5% in 2025 [1] Industry Challenges - Geopolitical tensions, changes in trade policies, climate impacts, and regulatory adjustments are driving up shipping costs and forcing changes in shipping routes [1] - Port congestion and the demand for green transformation are accelerating the push for digitalization, although many developing economies remain lagging [1] Recommendations - UNCTAD calls for actions to promote stable trade policies, accelerate green and digital transformation, enhance cybersecurity, and provide support to developing countries, particularly the most vulnerable economies, to mitigate the impact of high transportation costs [1]

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 20.3% year-on-year. First-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities saw increases of 68.8%, 21.7%, and a decrease of 19.9% respectively [2] - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year during the week of September 8-14, 2025, indicating a slowdown in the price war in the car market [2] - Service consumption shows signs of recovery, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 1.3% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year due to the release of new films [2] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand shows slight improvement, with policies supporting steel growth leading to small price increases in steel and glass, while cement prices have stabilized [3] - Manufacturing sector shows overall improvement in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, with stable hiring intentions among companies [3] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [3] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to a hawkish stance from U.S. Federal Reserve officials following a rate cut, combined with weak domestic downstream demand [3] Group 4: Human Flow and Logistics - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly improved, with an increase in air transport demand month-on-month [3] - National highway freight truck traffic and railway freight volume increased by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively, indicating a recovery in logistics [3] - Dry bulk shipping prices continue to rise due to increased demand for bulk commodity transport in the Northern Hemisphere's autumn season [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of domestic cyclical product prices and the improvement in service consumption, indicating a positive trend in the overall economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing growth rates of 68.8%, 21.7%, and -19.9% respectively [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slowdown in price competition and a slight recovery in sales growth [3]. - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in movie box office revenues, which surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand showed marginal improvement, with steel and glass prices slightly rising, and cement prices stabilizing [4]. - Manufacturing activity improved, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical sectors, and stable hiring intentions among companies [4]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices increased by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [4]. - Industrial metal prices faced pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve following a rate cut [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand improved, with a month-on-month increase in air transport demand [4]. - National highway freight traffic and railway freight volume rose by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [4].