Core Viewpoint - Hedge funds have turned bearish on Xiaomi stock, with significant short positions expected to persist until the earnings report, citing a lack of catalysts and safety concerns as primary reasons for the negative sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Xiaomi's stock has declined nearly 30% since reaching a historical high in June [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs reported a 53% increase in short positions on Xiaomi stock over the past week, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among institutional investors [4]. - The consensus among hedge funds is that Xiaomi is a common target for short selling in the short term due to various concerns, including delayed factory construction and challenges in the electric vehicle sector [4]. Group 2: Financial Projections and Analyst Ratings - CITIC Securities projects that Xiaomi will achieve total revenue of 113.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, up 63% [1]. - Despite current pressures, CITIC Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for Xiaomi, expecting it to remain a leading technology ecosystem company globally [4]. - Ping An International also reiterated a "buy" rating for Xiaomi, anticipating that the automotive business may achieve profitability for the first time in a single quarter [4]. Group 3: Product Performance and Market Position - According to Canalys, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 43.4 million units in Q3 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a 14% market share globally [5]. - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments were 10 million units, a decline of approximately 2%, resulting in a 15% market share, ranking fourth [5]. - Xiaomi's high-end smartphone series, launched in September 2025, achieved record sales shortly after release, indicating a positive trend in product structure optimization [5]. Group 4: Automotive and IoT Business Developments - Xiaomi has delivered 400,000 vehicles since launching its automotive division, with monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September and October 2025 [6]. - The company introduced a tax subsidy scheme to enhance consumer benefits, aiming for a break-even point in its automotive business [6]. - Despite a slowdown in national subsidies, Xiaomi's IoT business remains competitive, supported by product quality and supply chain management [7].

Core Insights - The overall smartphone sales in China declined by 2.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, attributed to weak consumer demand influenced by the summer vacation and back-to-school season [1] - Vivo leads the market with an 18.5% share despite a 5.9% drop in sales, while Honor experienced the largest decline, with its market share falling to 14.4% [1] - Huawei maintained a stable market share of 16.4% with a slight sales decrease of 2.6%, supported by the Nova 14 series despite challenges with its HarmonyOS [2] - OPPO showed a recovery with a 2.1% year-on-year growth, driven by the stable performance of the Reno 14 series and its sub-brand OnePlus [4] - Xiaomi achieved a 1.1% increase in sales, bolstered by the REDMI Note 15 and K80 series, and its new Xiaomi 17 series has gained traction in the high-end market [4] - Apple’s market share rose to 13.6% with a 2% sales decline, maintaining strong competitiveness in the high-end segment due to the iPhone 17 series [5] - Despite the overall market downturn, smartphone sales in China grew by 11% year-on-year in the first two weeks of October, indicating a positive start to Q4 [7] Company Summaries - **Vivo**: Holds the top market share at 18.5%, with a 5.9% decline in sales; successful in mid-range and entry-level segments with models like S30 and Y500 [1] - **Honor**: Experienced the largest sales drop of 8.1%, with challenges in product innovation and brand positioning, despite some success in the entry-level market with the X70 series [4][2] - **Huawei**: Maintained a stable market share of 16.4% with a 2.6% sales decline; the Nova 14 series performed well, but the HarmonyOS's development is still ongoing [2] - **OPPO**: Achieved a 2.1% growth in sales, with the Reno 14 series contributing to its recovery [4] - **Xiaomi**: Recorded a 1.1% increase in sales, with the new Xiaomi 17 series enhancing its presence in the high-end market [4] - **Apple**: Increased market share to 13.6% with a 2% sales decline; the iPhone 17 series continues to perform well in the high-end market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hedge funds have significantly increased their short positions on Xiaomi, with a 53% surge in the past week, indicating a cautious investor sentiment ahead of the company's Q3 earnings report on November 18 [1][5] Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds view Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1][5] - The selling pressure has been dominated by pension funds and hedge funds, reflecting a strong bearish sentiment [5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has lowered Xiaomi's 12-month target price from HKD 66 to HKD 56.5, a decline of over 10% [1][11] - The downgrade is attributed to rising storage chip prices affecting gross margins, slowing growth in AIoT business, and delivery risks from delays in the electric vehicle factory [1][11] - Market expectations for Xiaomi's Q3 revenue growth are set at 23% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Smartphone Business and Margins - Rising storage costs are expected to pressure Xiaomi's smartphone gross margins, which are projected to decline to around 10% by 2026 [6] - Despite the margin pressure, Xiaomi's high-end strategy and favorable currency adjustments may mitigate some of the impacts [6] Group 4: AIoT Business Growth - AIoT revenue growth is anticipated to slow down due to high base effects, with expected growth rates of 6% and 0% in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively [8] - However, international market expansion could provide new growth opportunities, with plans to open approximately 2,000 Xiaomi stores by 2026 [8] Group 5: Electric Vehicle Business - The electric vehicle segment is crucial for Xiaomi's future growth, with a projected financial impact of around RMB 3 billion from vehicle purchase subsidies in the first half of 2026 [9] - Production capacity is expected to gradually increase, with delivery forecasts remaining stable at 390,000 vehicles in 2025 and 800,000 in 2026 [10] Group 6: Long-term Outlook - Despite the challenges, Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating, citing attractive risk-reward dynamics at current stock prices [12] - The company is also investing in new areas such as AI language models and robotics, which could serve as potential catalysts for stock price appreciation [12]

人民财讯11月6日电，Counterpoint Research最新数据显示，2025年第三季度中国智能手机销量同比下降 2.7%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In Q3 2025, smartphone sales in China decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, influenced by ongoing economic factors related to summer vacations and the back-to-school season [1] - Despite a reduction in the impact of national subsidy policies after Q1, these policies continue to support the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones in China [1] - Overall smartphone sales in China showed a strong start in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11% in the first two weeks of October [5] Group 2: Company Performance - Vivo's market share fell to 18.5% in Q3 2025, but it maintained a leading position due to a diverse product line across different price ranges, with models like S30, X200s, Y300, and the newly launched Y500 contributing significantly [1] - Huawei's high-end Mate 70 and Pura 80 series saw lower sales compared to previous generations, while the Nova 14 series performed well; however, challenges remain due to the new HarmonyOS NEXT lacking ecosystem support [1] - OPPO showed signs of recovery with a 2.1% year-on-year growth, driven by stable sales of the Reno 14 series and strong performance from its sub-brand OnePlus, particularly the Ace 5 and 13 series [4] - Honor's X70 series stood out in the entry-level market with features like an 8300mAh battery, but overall sales declined by 8.1% in the quarter; the brand is investing heavily in AI to transition into an AI-focused ecosystem company [4] Group 3: Apple Performance - The iPhone 17 series has performed exceptionally well since its launch in September 2025, with the base model's sales nearly doubling compared to the iPhone 16 during the same period last year [8] - The iPhone 17's entry-level model offers high value with a storage upgrade from 128GB to 256GB at a starting price of RMB 5999, putting pressure on competing high-end Android brands [5] - The iPhone 17 Pro has shown remarkable performance, with a year-on-year growth rate significantly higher than that of the iPhone 16 Pro [8]

Core Insights - The global smartphone market revenue is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $112 billion, marking the highest revenue for this quarter in history [1] - Global smartphone shipments are expected to see a moderate growth of 4% year-on-year, totaling 320 million units [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has reached a record high for Q3 at $351, driven by an expanding mature user base upgrading to more expensive devices [1] Market Performance - Apple led the global smartphone market with a 60% revenue share, achieving a 6% year-on-year revenue growth and a 9% increase in shipments [2][5] - Samsung holds the largest market share in shipments at 19%, with a 9% revenue growth and a 3% increase in ASP, attributed to the success of high-end products like the Galaxy S25 series [5] - Xiaomi ranks third in global shipments with a 14% market share, experiencing a 2% growth, supported by demand in emerging markets [5] Brand Analysis - OPPO recorded the highest ASP growth among the top five brands, increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, with a 1% revenue growth driven by the strong performance of the Reno14 series [5] - Vivo achieved the fastest revenue growth among the top five brands at 12% year-on-year, fueled by strong shipment growth in India and Southeast Asia [6] - The overall trend indicates a shift towards high-end devices and an increase in the adoption of foldable smartphones, which is expected to further boost ASP and revenue in the global smartphone market by 2025 [6]

Core Insights - The folding smartphone market in Western Europe is shifting from a dual-brand dominance of Samsung and Honor to a more competitive landscape with the entry of Motorola and Google [4][5][7] - Motorola's Razr and Google's Pixel Fold have gained significant market share, indicating a diversification in the competitive dynamics of the folding smartphone segment [5][7][8] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, Motorola's Razr 60 led the market with a 15% share, while combined with Razr 50, the total share reached approximately 27%, comparable to the previous year's leading models [7] - Google's Pixel 9 Pro Fold and Samsung's Galaxy Z Flip6 each maintained just over 10% market share, contributing to a more balanced competitive environment [7][8] - The overall folding smartphone market is experiencing steady growth, with a decrease in concentration and an increase in competition among brands [5][7] Future Outlook - Google’s Pixel 10 Pro Fold launched in early October 2025, supported by promotional activities, is expected to perform well in markets like the UK [8] - Motorola aims to surpass Honor and become the second-largest brand in the European folding smartphone market by expanding distribution and promotional efforts [8] - The market is anticipated to become more active during the holiday season, with brands that demonstrate confident product design and stable execution likely to capture growth [8][9] - Apple is expected to enter the folding smartphone market in the second half of 2026, which may reshape resource allocation and pricing strategies among operators [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese smartphone market experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.7% in Q3 2025 due to economic slowdown and reduced demand [5][4] - OPPO achieved the highest year-on-year growth rate among major OEMs, driven by strong demand for its sub-brand OnePlus [6][5] Market Performance - The overall smartphone sales in China decreased by 2.7% in Q3 2025, influenced by ongoing economic factors such as the summer vacation and back-to-school season [5][4] - Vivo's market share fell to 18.5% amid intensified competition, yet it maintained a leading position with a diverse product line [5][6] - Huawei's high-end Mate 70 and Pura 80 series saw lower sales compared to previous models, while the Nova 14 series continued to perform well [5][6] Brand Analysis - OPPO's growth of 2.1% was attributed to stable sales of the Reno 14 series and strong performance from OnePlus, particularly the Ace 5 and 13 series [6][5] - Xiaomi recorded a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, supported by the Redmi Note 15 and K80 series, with the recently launched Xiaomi 17 series receiving positive market feedback [6][9] - Honor's X70 series stood out in the entry-level market, but the brand's overall sales declined by 8.1% [6][5] Apple Performance - The iPhone 17 series outperformed the iPhone 16 series in initial sales, with the base model being particularly popular due to its competitive pricing [7][11] - Apple's pricing strategy has increased pressure on high-end Android brands, with expectations of intensified competition in Q4 [7][11] - The iPhone 17's sales in September were nearly double that of the iPhone 16 during the same period last year, indicating strong market demand [11][9]

Core Insights - The global smartphone market revenue grew by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $112 billion, marking the highest level for Q3 in history [4][5] - The global smartphone shipment volume also saw a moderate 4% year-on-year increase, totaling 320 million units [5] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached a record high for Q3 at $351, driven by an expanding mature user base upgrading to more expensive devices [5][8] Company Performance - Apple led the market with a 43% revenue share and a 6% year-on-year growth, achieving its best-ever Q3 revenue [8][11] - Samsung experienced a 9% year-on-year revenue growth, supported by strong sales of the Galaxy S series and foldable devices, with its ASP increasing by 2.9% to $304 [5][11] - Vivo was the fastest-growing brand among the top five, with a 12% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by strong shipments in India and Southeast Asia [5][11] - OPPO achieved the highest ASP increase among the top five brands, growing by 3.4% to $254, thanks to strong performance in higher price segments [5][11] - Xiaomi held a 14% market share with a 2% year-on-year growth, benefiting from mid-to-high-end smartphone demand in emerging markets [11] Market Trends - The ongoing trend of premiumization in the smartphone market is expected to continue, with increasing adoption of foldable smartphones further driving ASP and revenue growth [8] - The introduction of trade-in offers, financing options, and bundled sales has lowered the upgrade barrier, particularly in emerging markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that market sentiment is turning cautious ahead of Xiaomi Group-W's (01810) earnings report, with hedge funds increasing their short positions significantly [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge fund short positions in Xiaomi have increased by 53% over the past week, according to Goldman Sachs' sales department [1] - Institutional trading led by pension funds and hedge funds has shown a net selling trend over the past two weeks [1] - Hedge funds view Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Market Sentiment - Concerns over safety, production delays, and weak demand for electric vehicles despite recent promotional activities are contributing to negative market sentiment [1] - Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply compared to earlier this year when optimism about Xiaomi's entry into the electric vehicle sector had driven its stock price up [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Analyst Predictions - Xiaomi's stock price has fallen over 25% since peaking in early July [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts have lowered Xiaomi's target price by more than 10% due to profit margin pressures from rising memory chip prices [1] - The company is expected to report a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in its third-quarter earnings on November 18 [1]