Group 1 - The A-share military industry sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant gains in various companies [1] - Great Wall Military Industry has reached its daily limit increase, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Guankong Technology has risen over 10%, showcasing robust performance in the sector [1] Group 2 - Aerospace Development has increased by more than 8%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Aerospace Changfeng and Leike Defense are also seeing gains, contributing to the overall strength of the military sector [1]

Macro Insights - Stablecoins are not absolutely stable in value; they are subject to technical de-pegging risks and fluctuations in the underlying assets [1] - Not all fiat currencies can support the issuance of stablecoins; the development of stablecoins depends on the acceptance and trust in the underlying fiat currency [1] - The rapid development of USD stablecoins does not weaken the credibility of the USD; instead, it enhances the USD's role and functionality [1] - USD stablecoins provide limited relief to the US short-term debt market, with the Federal Reserve remaining the primary influencer of the overall debt market [2] - The emergence of USD stablecoins does not significantly increase the supply of USD; the Federal Reserve retains control over total USD liquidity [2] - Stablecoins support the RWA market primarily at the transaction level, with the development of RWA ultimately dependent on the quality of underlying assets [2] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent adjustments, driven by emerging opportunities in new technologies and consumption [4] - The potential for a trend of USD depreciation is increasing, which may benefit Chinese assets, particularly in the context of capital flow and asset pricing [5] - The focus on AI trends in the technology sector is emphasized, alongside recommendations for cyclical industries and high-dividend financial stocks [6] AH Premium Analysis - The historical AH premium has been trending downward, influenced by differences in market structure, liquidity, and industry concentration between A-shares and H-shares [8] - Recent changes indicate a narrowing of the AH premium, with some H-shares trading at a premium compared to their A-share counterparts [9] Commodity Insights - The lithium and cobalt sectors are under scrutiny, with current market conditions showing weak demand and price pressures [11][12] - The cobalt market is experiencing a downturn, with reduced purchasing activity and potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact prices [13]

Group 1 - The global capital markets demonstrated unexpected resilience despite geopolitical tensions and hawkish policies from the Federal Reserve, with major Asian markets, including South Korea, India, and Japan, showing significant gains of 4.4%, 1.59%, and 1.50% respectively [3][4][14] - The Chinese market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.51% after failing to break through the critical resistance level of 3400 points, indicating a need for technical correction [3][14][16] - Structural risks in the Chinese market were highlighted, as small-cap stocks showed signs of weakening momentum, with the CSI 1000 Index down 1.74% and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 Index down 2.55% [3][14][16] Group 2 - The core logic supporting global market resilience is the belief that the Middle East geopolitical crisis will not escalate uncontrollably in the short term, with OPEC+ maintaining sufficient spare capacity and the long-term trend of global energy transition mitigating sustained oil price surges [4][14][15] - A differentiated outlook suggests that the Chinese market may outperform global markets in the coming week, as recent technical corrections have preemptively absorbed some risks, allowing for a potential rebound if geopolitical tensions ease [5][16] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector in the Chinese market, bolstered by supportive policy signals from the recent Lujiazui Forum, which emphasized long-term capital support for technology [6][17] Group 3 - Key investment themes include a focus on technology growth driven by US-China tech competition and new economic transformation, with specific attention to sectors such as robotics, artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology [7][20] - High dividend stocks are recommended for stable allocation, particularly in sectors like banking, electricity, and home appliances, as the trend of declining risk-free interest rates continues to create demand [7][20] - Cyclical commodities with constrained supply and improving demand are also highlighted, particularly in the rare earth and chemical sectors, which are expected to show resilience [7][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, particularly in light of the current global geopolitical tensions, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in this sector [3][36]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of demand and the elimination of previous disruptions, with a long-term growth certainty supported by national defense modernization goals set for 2035 and 2050 [5][38]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of drone technology in modern warfare, emphasizing its cost-effectiveness and operational advantages [4][36]. - The low-altitude economy is identified as a burgeoning sector, with significant policy support and commercial opportunities emerging [4][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military index fell by 2.01% last week, ranking 17th among 31 sectors, with a current PE(TTM) of 74.63 times [3][20]. - The sub-sectors show varying PE ratios, with aerospace equipment at 134.59 times and ground weaponry at 148.10 times [20]. Key Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong demand and product depth in the downstream manufacturing sector, such as Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [5][40]. - Highlight new technology firms in the military sector, including Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Guangqi Technology [5][40]. - Emphasize underwater equipment companies like Hailanxin and Yaxing Anchor Chain [5][41]. - Recommend missile industry chain companies such as Feilihua and Guokexun [5][42]. - Suggest companies involved in military-grade titanium materials and electronic components, including Western Superconducting and Hongyuan Electronics [5][43][44]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are driving interest in military investments [3][36]. - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a significant growth area, with various local governments implementing supportive measures to foster development [31][35].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].

Market Overview - The stock indices collectively adjusted this week, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets seeing a net inflow of approximately 20 billion yuan into stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs [1][6]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 59.3 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 22.6 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market for 36.7 trillion yuan [2]. ETF Performance - Major ETFs such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext related ETFs fell over 1% this week, while the STAR 50 ETF saw a net inflow of 2.019 billion yuan [5][6]. - Among the large-scale ETFs, the CSI 500 ETF had a weekly net inflow of 10.83 billion yuan, despite a price drop of 1.68% [3][8]. Sector Analysis - The brokerage, medical, and military industry ETFs were favored by investors, with net inflows of 9.96 billion yuan, 7 billion yuan, and 6.96 billion yuan respectively [7][8]. - Conversely, the information technology innovation (信创) related ETFs experienced significant outflows, with the 信创 ETF seeing a net outflow of 1.76 billion yuan [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the mid-term upward potential of the equity market, particularly in sectors supported by policy, including domestic technology innovation and industrial development [6][16]. - The military sector is expected to see a turning point in orders by 2025, driven by new technologies and military trade opportunities [13]. New ETF Listings - One new ETF tracking the CSI A100 index is set to be listed next week, with four additional ETFs focused on artificial intelligence, STAR board value, securities, and aviation industries expected to be issued soon [17][19].

Core Points - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in the past week, Russian forces have gained control of six settlements and targeted Ukrainian military enterprises, energy infrastructure, and air defense radar stations [1] - Ukrainian armed forces reported over 170 battles occurring in frontline areas within a single day, with attacks on Russian command posts and missile and artillery facilities [1] - Russian air defense forces intercepted over 1,000 fixed-wing drones and shot down Ukrainian aerial bombs and "HIMARS" rockets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving significant activity in the A-share military industry stocks, with notable price surges observed in companies like Longcheng Military Industry and Guangli Technology [1][6]. Company Summary - Longcheng Military Industry has achieved a three-day consecutive price increase, with the latest price at 18.36 yuan and a trading volume of 19.95 billion yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of 13.297 billion yuan [2]. - Over the past three trading days, Longcheng Military Industry's stock has increased by 33.14% [3]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of 21.96 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 40.32 million yuan [5]. - The company is involved in military equipment and has a significant focus on military products, including mortars and individual rockets [8]. Industry Summary - The military sector is experiencing heightened interest due to international geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, which is expected to boost military trade [10][12]. - Global military spending is projected to increase for the tenth consecutive year in 2024, with the highest growth rates observed in Europe and the Middle East [12]. - The upcoming Paris Air Show in June 2025 is anticipated to be a significant event for the aerospace sector, potentially catalyzing investment interest in related industries [13][14]. - The military trade market is expected to expand from military aircraft and radar-related stocks to include missiles, ammunition, and the broader military supply chain [16].

3连板长城军工：目前生产经营活动正常 智通财经6月20日电，长城军工发布股票交易风险提示公告，自2025年6月17日至6月20日期间，公司股 票价格在4个交易日累计涨幅达到37.06%，累计换手率达到15.52%，上述指标均远高于行业同期平均水 平。经公司自查，目前生产经营活动正常，日常经营情况未发生重大变化，不存在影响公司股票交易异 常波动的重大事项。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Great Wall Military Industry (601606) experienced a significant increase, with a cumulative rise of 37.06% from June 17 to June 20, 2025, along with a turnover rate of 15.52%, both exceeding the industry average during the same period [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Stock Performance - From June 17 to June 19, 2025, the stock price increased by 21.89%, followed by another limit-up on June 20 [1] - Company Operations - The company conducted a self-inspection and confirmed that its production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in daily operations [1] - Market Conditions - The substantial short-term increase in stock price may indicate a potential risk of significant decline in the future [1]