图片来源：视觉中国 据智通财经盯盘数据，1月12日，沪深两市成交额3.6万亿元，较上一个交易日放量4787亿元，刷新此前在2024年 10月8日创下的34549.33亿元的成交额历史纪录。这也是两市成交额2026年第二次、历史上第六次突破3万亿大 关。其中，沪市成交额1.45万亿元，深市成交额2.16万亿元。蓝色光标成交额居首，为235.89亿元。 此前，1月9日，沪深两市成交额时隔73个交易日后再度站上3万亿大关，也是今年首次突破3万亿。此前在2024年 10月8日、2025年8月25日、8月27日和9月18日，两市成交额曾四次突破3万亿。 | 序号 | 日期 | 成交额(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2024-10-08 | 34549.33 | | 2 | 2025-08-27 | 31655.63 | | 65 | 2025-08-25 | 31411.36 | | র্ব | 2025-09-18 | 31351.72 | | 5 | 2026-01-09 | 31227.67 | | 6 | 2025-08-28 | 29708.02 | | 71 | 2024- ...

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.09% to close at 4165.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.75% to 14366.91 points, the Sci-Tech 50 up by 2.43% to 1511.84 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.82% to 3388.34 points [1][10] - Overall, 4141 stocks rose while 1179 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 3601.4 billion yuan, an increase of 478.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Media, Computer, National Defense and Military Industry, Social Services, and Communication, with respective increases of 7.80%, 7.26%, 5.66%, 3.21%, and 2.74% [1][14] - Conversely, the Oil and Petrochemical, Coal, and Real Estate sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 1.00%, 0.47%, and 0.29% respectively [1][14] Concept Sectors - The top-performing concept sectors today included Kimi, Pinduoduo partners, Xiaohongshu platform, Satellite Internet, ChatGPT, Intelligent Agents, Virtual Humans, DeepSeek, Chinese Corpus, AIGC, Internet Celebrity Economy, Douyin Doubao, Multimodal Models, WEB3.0, and Commercial Aerospace [2][12]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices collectively rose today, with total trading volume exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, marking the second consecutive trading day above 3 trillion yuan, an increase of 478.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, setting a new historical record for trading volume in 2024 [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29 points, up 1.09%, with a trading volume of 1.446 trillion yuan - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91 points, up 1.75%, with a trading volume of 2.155 trillion yuan - The ChiNext Index closed at 3388.34 points, up 1.82%, with a trading volume of 1.086 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of growth included: - Cultural Media: up 7.96%, with a trading volume of 724.48 billion yuan and a net inflow of 94.79 billion yuan - IT Services: up 7.92%, with a trading volume of 822.49 billion yuan and a net inflow of 122.25 billion yuan - Software Development: up 7.76%, with a trading volume of 640.22 billion yuan and a net inflow of 214.60 billion yuan [2] Declining Sectors - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Insurance: down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 18.93 billion yuan and a net outflow of 10.62 billion yuan - Oil and Gas Extraction and Services: down 0.34%, with a trading volume of 164.48 billion yuan and a net outflow of 8.16 billion yuan - Agricultural Chemicals: down 0.22%, with a trading volume of 182.31 billion yuan and a net outflow of 22.81 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Franklin Fund presents a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026, highlighting a "slow bull" market characterized by structural differentiation, with significant performance from the technology sector and resource revaluation driven by external and internal demand dynamics [1][9]. Group 1: Technology Growth - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is identified as the core driver of the fourth industrial revolution, with its impact expected to surpass that of the internet and mobile internet eras [2]. - The past year has seen exponential growth in computing power driven by companies like OpenAI and Nvidia, alongside advancements in algorithms, leading to a clearer understanding of the path to General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) [2][3]. - The focus for investment in the AI sector should be on commercial opportunities in application development and the technological iteration of computing power, with a strong belief that 2026 will be a breakthrough year for domestic AI industries in China [3]. Group 2: Resource Revaluation - The report notes a significant increase in the prices of non-ferrous metals, driven by geopolitical tensions, de-globalization trends, and the rising demand for strategic resources due to the AI revolution [4]. - The U.S. is implementing tariffs and localization policies to build strategic reserves of critical minerals, while China is enhancing its control over supply in areas like rare earths and tungsten [4]. - The potential for this revaluation trend to extend to oil and agricultural products is highlighted, with oil prices being a key factor influencing global inflation and economic policies [5]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Stabilization - The decline in real estate prices since 2021 has led to a contraction in local government and household balance sheets, contributing to weak domestic demand [6]. - Short-term stabilization of core asset prices and proactive debt management are seen as effective measures to restore balance sheets, while long-term recovery will depend on structural reforms in consumption and income distribution [6][7]. - The direction of real estate policy will be crucial for the performance of the domestic demand sector in 2026, with a shift from a "supportive" to a "stimulative" approach potentially leading to significant valuation recovery across the domestic industry chain [7]. Group 4: National Competition - The report suggests that a stable external economic environment is essential for the continued performance of externally driven sectors, with a shift in U.S. foreign policy expected to lead to a more pragmatic approach [8]. - Improved relations between China and Europe are anticipated, although potential trade disputes in Southeast Asia and other regions remain a concern [8]. - Overall, the external environment in 2026 is expected to be more stable than in 2025, benefiting the outlook for externally driven industries [8]. Conclusion - Guohai Franklin Fund maintains an optimistic view for the A-share market in 2026, with a continued focus on technology growth, resource revaluation, and the potential stabilization of domestic demand [9].

物业类型以住宅为核心，成交金额占比51.9%，拍卖阶段二拍成交占比最高46.9%。区域分布上，高价 房源集中于一线及核心二线城市，深圳、上海、北京构成第一梯队。 北京商报讯(记者李晗)1月12日，中指研究院数据显示，2025年全国挂拍71.9万套法拍房，同比降6.6%； 成交16.9万套，同比降4.4%；总成交金额2536.2亿元，同比降23.6%，平均折价率74.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Franklin Fund indicates that the A-share market in 2026 is expected to be influenced by a "slow bull" market characterized by structural differentiation, with significant performance from the technology sector and resource revaluation [1][15]. Group 1: Technology Growth - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the core driver of the fourth industrial revolution, with its impact expected to surpass that of the internet and mobile internet eras [3][4]. - The AI sector is anticipated to experience substantial growth in 2026, driven by advancements in domestic manufacturing technology and the mass production of GPUs, alongside established advantages in large model development in China [5]. - The focus for investment in the AI industry should be on commercial opportunities in application and the technological iteration path in computing power, with a recognition of potential short-term disruptions in stock selection due to hardware technology changes [4][5]. Group 2: Resource Revaluation - The report notes a significant increase in the prices of non-ferrous metals, driven by geopolitical tensions, de-globalization trends, and the rising demand for strategic resources due to the AI revolution [7][8]. - The supply-side dynamics are influenced by the U.S. implementing tariffs and localization policies, while China continues to manage its advantages in rare earths and other strategic materials [7]. - The potential for value revaluation trends to extend into oil and agricultural products is highlighted, with oil prices being a critical factor affecting global inflation and economic policies [8]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Stabilization - The decline in real estate prices since 2021 has led to a contraction in local government and household balance sheets, contributing to weak domestic demand [10][11]. - Short-term stabilization of domestic demand relies on balancing the asset-liability sheets of households, governments, and enterprises, while long-term recovery will depend on fundamental changes in economic driving models [10]. - The direction of real estate policy will be crucial for the market structure in 2026, determining whether it will adopt a conservative "support" strategy or a more aggressive "stimulus" approach [11]. Group 4: National Competition - The report suggests that a stable external trade environment is essential for the continuation of strong performance in foreign demand-driven sectors [13]. - The U.S. is expected to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy, which may lead to a phase of stability in U.S.-China relations and improved ties with Europe [13]. - Despite potential trade disputes in Southeast Asia, China's ability to manage these challenges has significantly improved compared to the past [13]. Conclusion - Overall, Guohai Franklin Fund maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, expecting a better environment than in 2025, with a continued focus on technology growth and resource revaluation [15].

每经AI快讯，1月12日，市场震荡拉升，三大指数均涨超1%，创业板指探底回升，此前一度跌超1%。 沪深两市成交额3.6万亿，连续第2个交易日突破3万亿，较上一个交易日放量4787亿，刷新此前在2024 年10月8日创下的成交额历史纪录。盘面上，市场热点轮番活跃，全市场超4100只个股上涨，其中201只 个股涨停。从板块来看，AI应用概念全线爆发，引力传媒6天5板，利欧股份、天下秀、省广集团2连 板，卫宁健康、新点软件、福昕软件等多股涨停。商业航天概念延续强势，金风科技5连板，通宇通讯4 天3板。可控核聚变概念表现活跃，中国核建4天3板。下跌方面，保险、油气、房地产等板块跌幅居 前。截至收盘，沪指涨1.09%，深成指涨1.75%，创业板指涨1.82%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreclosure market is expected to experience a decline in auction volume, transaction volume, transaction amount, and average price in 2025, indicating a downward trend in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the total number of properties listed for auction is projected to be 719,000, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% [1] - The expected number of transactions is 169,000, which is a 4.4% decline compared to the previous year [1] - The total transaction amount is anticipated to be 253.62 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year drop of 23.6% [1] - The average discount rate for properties is forecasted to be 74.1% [1] Group 2: Property Type and Auction Stages - Residential properties will remain the core focus of the market, accounting for 51.9% of the total transaction amount [1] - The second auction stage is expected to have the highest transaction share at 46.9% [1] Group 3: Regional Distribution and Market Dynamics - High-value properties are concentrated in first-tier and core second-tier cities, with Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing forming the top tier [1] - There is a notable increase in regional differentiation, with significant performance disparities among key cities [1] - The transaction structure is optimizing, with the second auction stage becoming the primary channel for transactions, as bidders are more inclined to act during more attractive pricing phases [1] - The foreclosure market exhibits an independent cyclical trend, with monthly transaction volume and amount significantly influenced by court enforcement schedules, leading to pronounced volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The legislative process of the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law has focused on the issue of input tax deduction for loan services, which directly impacts corporate financing costs and tax burdens. The VAT Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, with the implementation regulations published on December 30, 2025, clarifying current rules and leaving room for future policy optimization [1]. Group 1: Loan Service Input Tax Deduction - The current VAT system has prohibited the deduction of input tax on loan services, which has been a contentious issue, particularly for capital-intensive industries like finance and real estate, increasing corporate financing costs [2]. - The deletion of the prohibition on input tax deduction for loan services in the VAT Law aligns with the logic of VAT reform and signals a positive policy adjustment, allowing companies to reasonably expect future deductions [2][3]. - The implementation regulations maintain the current prohibition on input tax deduction for loan services, indicating that there will be no comprehensive opening in the short term, which has garnered widespread attention from businesses [3]. Group 2: Future Policy Optimization - The temporary nature of the current prohibition on loan service deductions is emphasized, with a commitment from fiscal and tax authorities to evaluate the policy's effectiveness over time, suggesting potential future adjustments based on economic conditions and administrative capabilities [4]. - The legislative framework allows for easier policy adjustments at the State Council level without needing to amend the law, which could facilitate gradual opening of deductions based on industry and scenario trials [4]. Group 3: Non-Compensated Lending - The new VAT Law provides significant benefits by removing the requirement for non-compensated loans to be treated as taxable sales, which previously applied only to non-group enterprises [5][6]. - Starting January 1, 2026, non-compensated loans between enterprises will no longer fall under the VAT taxable scope, significantly reducing the tax burden associated with such transactions [6]. - Companies must remain aware that corporate income tax policies remain unchanged, and non-compensated loans must adhere to independent transaction principles to avoid tax complications [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report constructs a multi - dimensional analysis framework based on long - term expectations, medium - term cycles, and short - term shocks to systematically sort out the core driving forces and future trends of US inflation [3]. - The Fed's "risk - management style" rate cuts will not restructure the inflation pattern as this round of cuts occurs in a non - recession environment and is more about maintaining economic resilience rather than causing a significant rebound in inflation [3]. - Long - term inflation expectations are anchored, and the Fed's independence remains a key stabilizer, with limited risk of long - term inflation getting out of control [3]. - Endogenous inflation momentum is slowing, and most structural sub - items show downward pressure, except for possible mild rebounds in durables and core services (excluding rent) inflation [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Inflation Analysis's Three - Dimensional Framework: Long - term Expectations, Core Dynamics, and Short - term Shocks - The Fed assesses inflation trends through a three - dimensional framework: long - term inflation expectations, core inflation, and short - term price shocks [11]. - Long - term inflation is anchored by monetary policy through expectations, core inflation's mid - term fluctuations are driven by the economic cycle, and external factors cause short - term disturbances [12]. - Long - term inflation expectations are the core pillar of the Fed's inflation management, core inflation reflects the domestic demand and labor market, and short - term shocks are usually temporary and exogenous [13]. - "Risk - management style" rate cuts generally do not lead to a significant inflation rebound based on historical experience and logical reasons [20][21]. 2. Is the Fed's Long - term Inflation Anchor Failing? - Although inflation has been persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the 5 - year/5 - year forward break - even inflation rate shows that the market's long - term inflation expectations remain stable [33]. - A quantitative model shows that the Fed's 2% inflation target has played a decisive role in guiding and stabilizing market expectations, and currently, the market may overestimate Trump's short - term impact on the Fed's independence [36][40]. 3. Reconstructing US Inflation Analysis: A Six - Sub - item Analysis Framework 3.1 Food and Beverage: Obvious Dual - Factor Drive of Commodity and Labor Costs - The cost of US food mainly concentrates on the middle and lower reaches of processing and circulation. The CRB food index and salary growth indicators are in a downward trend, so the food sub - item's upward momentum for overall inflation will weaken [3][51]. 3.2 Energy: Inflation Thrust Easing under Changing Supply - Demand Patterns - Energy has a significant impact on overall inflation. In 2025 - 2026, the global crude oil market's supply growth is expected to exceed demand, reducing the risk of a significant upward movement in US inflation [3][56][58]. 3.3 Rent: Lags US Housing Prices by about 15 Months - Rent is a key driver of CPI. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of rent is expected to slow to about 2.88%, leading to a 0.3% decline in overall inflation [3][71]. 3.4 Durables: May Face Some Upward Pressure in 2026 - Durables inflation may face upward pressure in 2026, but the pulling effect on inflation is expected to be mild due to the slowdown in the job market and consumer pressure [3][88]. 3.5 Non - durables: Obvious Cost - Driven Characteristics - Non - durables demand is rigid, and prices are mainly cost - driven. Based on the prediction of a decline in the crude oil price center in 2026, non - durables inflation is expected to cool down or fluctuate narrowly [91]. 3.6 Core Services: The Labor Market is the Core Driver - Core services inflation (excluding rent) is mainly driven by the labor market's tightness. Currently, the labor market is demand - driven, and there is no sustainable upward momentum for this type of inflation [3][111].