上周五，美国公布的7月非农就业数据意外"爆冷"，远不及市场预期。这盆泼向美国经济的"冷水"，却给资本市场点燃了一把火，金价应声拉升，COMEX黄 金期货当天涨幅超2%。 今年以来，黄金走强的驱动因素主要是美国经济数据趋弱催化美国滞胀/衰退预期，无论美国降息预期再扩张与美国再通胀两种路径哪种发生，均利多金 价。 事实上，尽管今年全球风险偏好显著回升，几个主要股市的表现都比较亮眼，黄金的涨幅依旧领跑。近期，随着美联储9月降息预期升温，资金再度聚焦黄 金。其中，以金ETF（159834；联接A/C：018391/018392）为代表的黄金ETF产品，为普通投资者提供了便捷高效的配置通道。 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 当前普遍预计美联储将加快降息节奏，根据wind数据，截至8月5日，CME掉期利率显示9月降息概率超九成，或对黄金价格形成支撑。 当下的投资价值与逻辑支撑 我们知道，黄金集避险硬通货、通胀对冲货币、工业与饰品商品三重属性于一身，且与股债低相关，是天然的跨维度风险缓冲器。眼下，地缘政治升温 ...

截至 6 月，高盛 proprietary 的广义财政赤字（AFD）指标按 12 个月移动平均计算为 GDP 的 11.3%（2024 年为 10.6%），这表明今年以来财政政策已成为温和的增长推动力，而去年则是增长拖 累。 香港时间8月6日下午，高盛发布亚洲宏观经济研究指出，鉴于今年迄今为止出口增长强于预期，以及当 前 "被动应对式"（而非 "先发制人式"）的宽松模式，中国的政策宽松一直是适度、有针对性且具有耐 心的。 7 月政治局会议表明，刺激的紧迫性有所下降，但高盛认为，若增长阻力加大，政策制定者仍为进一步 的宽松举措留有空间。 在这份报告中，高盛回顾了中国上半年的财政状况，评估了下半年可用的财政空间，重新审视今年剩余 时间的财政政策展望，并更新高盛对固定资产投资（FAI）的预测。 部分预算外融资渠道持续疲软 与去年相比，上半年财政状况有所改善 得益于去年年底推出的 10 万亿元地方政府债务化解计划以及今年的扩张性预算，中国的财政状况显著 改善。上半年，预算内财政支出同比增长 3.4%，持续高于财政收入（上半年同比下降 0.3%）。受土地 出让收入下滑的拖累，政府性基金收入依然低迷，今年上半年同比进一步 ...

高盛分析师最新研判显示，6月非农就业数据疲软已成为美国就业市场"明确转向"的信号。这一判断意 味着劳动力市场的韧性正在减弱，经济增长面临更多不确定性。若接下来公布的消费者价格指数 （CPI）继续保持温和甚至放缓，美联储在9月实施大幅度降息的可能性显著提升，市场也开始认真评 估降息50基点甚至更大幅度的政策调整。 降息50基点或更大幅度，将是对当前经济放缓风险的积极回应。此举不仅可以降低企业融资成本，刺激 投资和消费，还能缓解金融市场的紧张情绪，避免经济硬着陆。但同时也存在风险，过度宽松可能加剧 资产泡沫和长期通胀压力，考验美联储的政策平衡能力。 整体来看，美国经济正处于复杂的转折点。就业市场的转弱为降息提供了动力，但未来CPI走势及其他 宏观经济指标的变化将成为决定政策力度的关键。投资者和市场参与者需密切关注即将发布的数据，以 及美联储官员的表态，以判断货币政策的下一步走向。 过去一年，美联储为应对通胀不断加息，导致资金成本上升，经济增速放缓的迹象日益明显。就业市场 作为经济健康的重要晴雨表，其疲软往往预示着需求端的压力正在加大。6月非农数据的意外走弱不仅 打破了此前市场对劳动力市场稳健的预期，也让决策者不得 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains unchanged at 36,045 kilograms as of August 7 [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 782.28 yuan per gram, with a high of 785.00 yuan and a low of 781.08 yuan, closing at 785.02 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% [1] - Trading volume for the day reached 187,081 contracts, with an increase in open interest by 2,418 contracts, totaling 217,630 contracts [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists noted that the current relative expensiveness of five-year U.S. Treasury bonds is rare, except during periods when the Federal Reserve lowered the overnight loan rate target to 0% [2] - The five-year Treasury bond has been the best-performing segment of the U.S. Treasury market this year, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Ongoing inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit are exerting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, with market expectations suggesting a potentially more accommodative policy path after mid-next year following changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone indicates a 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession, yet global stock markets remain active, with U.S. stocks near historical highs [1] - The current market momentum is so strong that making bearish bets against the market seems irrational, despite signals of a slowing labor market [1] - Strong corporate earnings during the current earnings season and rising bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts contribute to the optimistic sentiment overshadowing concerns about tariffs [1] Group 2 - Swap traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by over 100 basis points by mid-2026, leading to increased liquidity in the cash market [2] - Trend-following investors control a significant portion of the funds flowing into "hot" stocks, indicating a short-sighted market behavior [2] - The prevalence of short-term strategies in U.S. stocks and suppressed volatility suggest that the upward trend is likely to continue in the near term [2]

过去几周，美联储主席鲍威尔持续面临来自特朗普政府的施压，要求美联储大幅降息至1%水平。而尽 管美联储目前依然迟迟按兵不动，但美债市场上的一些迹象却显示，在特朗普第二任期内，美联储大幅 降息或许绝非是一幕难以想象的场景…… 他们的比较对象是2年期和30年期国债收益率。在该称为"蝶式价差"策略的计算中，5年期收益率被乘以 两倍，再减去两年期和30年期收益率之和。目前这一计算结果为接近-100个基点，处于自2021年初以来 的区间低端。 高盛利率策略师在最新的报告中就发现，5年期美债相比起其他期限的国债而言，在历史上很少像现在 这样昂贵——只有美联储降息至零的那些时期例外。 周三，5年期国债收益率报约3.78%，仍处于自2022年初以来的高位区间。不过，债券市场中常见的相 对价值计算方法——即通过将收益率与较短和较长期限的债券收益率进行比较来评估显示，五年期美债 的估值目前正处于历史高位。 高盛策略师William Marshall和Bill Zu在周二发布的一份报告中写道，"美国国债市场当前的一个显著 特征是5年期国债的高估状态。" 不过，高盛团队认为这种情况不太可能持续下去。 基于对美联储降息的预期，五年期美债 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategy team highlights that the current valuation level of five-year U.S. Treasury bonds is historically rare unless the Federal Reserve lowers the benchmark interest rate to zero [1] - The five-year Treasury yield is reported at 3.78%, close to the high range since early 2022 when the Fed's policy rate was at zero [1] - The relative value assessment model indicates that the yield on five-year bonds is at a historic high, with the current result of the butterfly spread model approaching -100 basis points, reaching the lower limit of the volatility range since early 2021 [1] Market Expectations - The valuation phenomenon is closely tied to market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of Fed rate cuts, which are difficult to sustain in the long term [4] - Since the beginning of the year, the market has increasingly priced in more short-term rate cut expectations, anticipating a larger cumulative cut [4] - To alter the steepening yield curve trend and alleviate the overvaluation of five-year bonds, the market needs to shift towards clearer forward pricing [4] Performance Analysis - The five-year Treasury bond has been the best-performing segment this year, primarily supported by rate cut expectations, while long-term bonds face upward yield risks due to persistent inflation pressures and expanding U.S. budget deficits [4] - Since the end of last year, the five-year Treasury yield has decreased by 60 basis points, while the two-year yield has fallen by 52 basis points, and the thirty-year yield has remained relatively unchanged, highlighting the relative advantage of mid-term bonds under the influence of rate cut expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the U.S. economy showed signs of improvement in July after hitting a low in June, despite a rebound in the dollar index since July. The tightening of dollar liquidity and the impact of tariffs on inflation may negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September, while the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to around 4.8% in the near term. However, the long-term outlook remains positive for risk assets due to potential dollar liquidity easing and fiscal support for the economy [1][2][16]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Dynamics - The dollar index reflects various factors including cross-border capital flows, fundamentals, and dollar liquidity. Its fluctuations indicate a structural bear market for the dollar amidst ongoing capital rebalancing between the U.S. and other markets [2][4]. - The dollar index has maintained strength despite the widening U.S. fiscal and trade deficits over the past two years, driven by continued capital inflows into U.S. assets underpinned by AI-related market confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - Following a structural depreciation in April, the dollar index regained positive correlation with the U.S.-Germany yield spread from May, reflecting the recovery of the U.S. economy in July after a downturn from April to June [6][7]. - High-frequency data indicates that unemployment claims rose significantly from April to June, peaking at 1.95 million, corresponding to an unemployment rate of 4.3%. However, new job openings showed a recovery starting in July [9][10]. Group 3: Liquidity and Debt Issuance - The liquidity situation shifted from easing to tightening as the Treasury General Account (TGA) began releasing funds to replenish reserve accounts, with a significant increase in net debt issuance in July amounting to $308.3 billion compared to $104.9 billion from April to June [12][14]. - The Treasury is projected to issue $1 trillion in net debt from July to September, with long-term debt issuance reaching $470 billion, which may lead to financial risks and market volatility [20][21]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The potential for inflation is increasing as the impact of tariffs on import costs becomes more apparent, coupled with strong wage growth and low inflation base effects [16][18]. - The report suggests that if the U.S. economy remains stable with rising inflation and tightening dollar liquidity, Treasury yields are unlikely to stay low, which could adversely affect the real estate and manufacturing sectors [21][22]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The report anticipates potential adjustments in risk assets over the next couple of months due to tightening liquidity and rising inflation, particularly affecting growth sectors, while financial, real estate, and industrial sectors may remain resilient due to policy support [22]. - The long-term trend suggests that fiscal dominance may lead to renewed liquidity and continued improvement in fundamentals, maintaining an upward trajectory for the market despite short-term adjustments [22].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that E Fund Management Co., Ltd. has increased its stake in China International Capital Corporation (CICC) by purchasing 926,000 shares at an average price of HKD 19.1115 per share, totaling approximately HKD 17.6972 million [1] - Following this transaction, E Fund's total shareholding in CICC has risen to 114,897,200 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 5.99% to 6.04% [1][2]

美股目前接近历史高位，强劲的企业财报和对降息的押注压过了对全面关税影响的担忧。在经济增长可能放缓的信号显现之际，投资者重新涌入科技巨 头和人工智能交易。 高盛交易员警告，尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不合常理"。"关键在于市场无 法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。" 对美国经济衰退风险充耳不闻，本轮全球股市牛还能坚持多久？ 高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示， 尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不合 常理"。 流动性充裕推动市场乐观情绪 Schiavone在给客户的最新报告中指出： "关键在于市场无法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。" 他认为，投资者可能会忽略 劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而专注于强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题。 掉期交易员目前预期美联储到2026年中期将降息超过100个基点。大量短期国债发行向货币市场注入流动性，使得资金供应充足。与此同时，快钱投资 者在标普500指数从4月关税驱动的抛售中反弹后 ...