Core Insights - China's total goods trade value for the first five months of the year reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with exports at 10.67 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 7.27 trillion yuan (down 3.8%) [1] - The ASEAN region remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 3.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [1] - Trade with African countries showed significant growth, with total trade reaching 963.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and exports growing by 20.2% [2] Trade Performance - In May, despite having two fewer working days, China's imports and exports still achieved year-on-year growth of 2.7% and 6.3%, respectively [1] - Trade with the EU saw a total value of 2.3 trillion yuan, growing by 2.9%, while trade with the US totaled 285.51 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 12.67% [1] Product Analysis - Exports of electromechanical products reached 6.4 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.3%, making up 60% of total exports, with integrated circuits, ships, and LCD panels showing double-digit growth in both quantity and value [3] - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing policies to stabilize growth and foreign trade, with potential financial support for struggling foreign trade enterprises [3]

Export Performance - In May, China's total exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a trade surplus of $103.22 billion[6] - Year-on-year export growth in May was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 5%[8] - The two-year average growth rate for exports continued to rise, reaching 6.1% in May[8] Trade Relations - Exports to ASEAN and EU showed resilience, with EU exports growing by 12% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall export growth[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% year-on-year, negatively impacting overall export performance by 5 percentage points[8] Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while high-tech and labor-intensive products experienced declines of 4.9% and 2.5%, respectively[8] - Consumer goods such as mobile phones, home appliances, and computers showed weak export performance, negatively affecting overall export growth[8] Import Trends - Imports in May decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with agricultural products showing a positive growth of 0.7%[8] - The trade surplus expanded to $103.22 billion due to the combination of rising exports and declining imports[8] Future Outlook - Overall export resilience is expected to continue into June, driven by the recovery in exports to the US as trade negotiations progress[8] - The outcome of US trade negotiations will significantly influence export performance in the second half of the year[8] Risk Factors - Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies poses a risk to China's export outlook, with potential impacts on re-export trade[7][8]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 5 月出口，高关税阴影犹存 据海关总署，2025年5月出口总值为3161亿美元，同比增长4.8%，低于市场预期的6.2%和4月的8.1%； 进口总值为 2129 亿美元，同比-3.4%，预期 0.31%，前值-0.2%。5 月以来，中美贸易关系缓和，第一轮谈判后 中美互相大幅降低关税，当前美国对华关税仍维持在 30%之上。如何看待 5 月份进出口数据？ 一是对美出口继续下降，暂未反映贸易缓和。5 月对美出口同比降 34.6%，拖累出口同比 5 个百分点。对美 出口进一步大幅下降，或仍在继续反映 4 月美国对中国征收 145%高额关税的影响。不过，5 月以来，中美贸易 关系逐渐缓和，5 月 12 日中美会谈结束后发布日内瓦联合声明，中美之间关税税率超预期大幅下降，关税下调 于 5 月 14 日正式生效。6 月 5 日晚间，中美最高领导人通话，同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，并约定尽 快举行新一轮会谈。 伴随中美关系缓和，中国对美出口的恢复有望体现在 6 月数据。5 月中旬暂停加征关税后，市场迅速 ...

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to April[1] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, significantly dragging down overall export growth[1][3] - The high base effect from the previous year, where exports grew by 7.4% in May 2024, also contributed to the slowdown in May 2025[4] Import Trends - In May 2025, China's import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 3.2 percentage points from April[6] - Imports from the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 18.1%, with the drop expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, directly impacting overall import growth by 1.1 percentage points[6] - The decline in import demand was also influenced by the overall slowdown in exports and the negative impact of the trade war on domestic investment and consumer confidence[5][6] Market Dynamics - The "export rush" effect towards the U.S. is expected to continue in June, potentially maintaining positive year-on-year growth in exports, although the growth rate may drop to around 1.0%[5] - The ongoing high tariff levels from the U.S. and the established trend of external demand slowing down suggest that export growth may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[5] - The diversification of export markets has shown progress, with exports to ASEAN growing by 14.8% and to the EU by 12.0% in May, indicating resilience amid external challenges[4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 进出口数据快评 出口仍然展现较强韧性 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 6 月 9 日，海关总署数据显示，中国 5 月出口（以美元计价）同比增长 4.8%，进口同比下降 3.4%，贸易顺 差 1032.2 亿美元。 评论： 证券研究报告 图3：主要发达国家制造业景气度 图4：集装箱运价指数 出口仍然展现较强韧性 2025 年 5 月出口增速当月同比达到+4.8%，较 4 月+8.1%的水平继续回落。原因上看，关税带来的负面影响 逐步显现，5 月我国对美出口当月同比进一步下滑至-34.6%，对出口造成较大拖累，这也符合转口贸易抢 订单后逐步退潮的基本经验。但是，5 月在贸易形势面临较大压力的背景下仍然保 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction activity shows a significant decline in cement usage, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonal high, but some sectors are declining, such as polyester chip production which has dropped to a low level[2][24] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and construction material demand below historical levels[3][31] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and aluminum are fluctuating, while gold prices have increased[4][39] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the South China comprehensive index nearing its September 2024 low[4][41] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 7% week-on-week decline in transaction area across 30 major cities, down 41% compared to 2023[5][59] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes are weakening, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -1%, -15%, and +6% respectively[5][61] Exports - High-frequency export data for the first week of June indicates a potential year-on-year decline of around -8%[6][67] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.55% and DR007 at 1.53% as of June 6[5][80] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 358.6 billion yuan in recent weeks[5][82]

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade maintained resilience amid external pressures, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1][2]. Trade Performance - Exports reached 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports totaled 7.27 trillion yuan, declining by 3.8% [1]. - In May, despite having two fewer working days compared to the previous year, imports and exports grew by 2.7% and 6.3% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Trade Partners - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [4]. - Trade with the EU also increased, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan, a growth of 2.9% in the first five months, and a notable 9.39% increase in May [4]. US-China Trade Relations - The recent US-China trade talks led to a commitment from the US to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, while China will suspend or cancel corresponding counter-tariffs [4]. - In May, trade with the US totaled $285.51 billion, with a month-on-month decline of 12.67%, but the decline was less severe than in April [5]. Trade with Other Regions - Trade with Africa showed significant growth, reaching 963.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, with exports growing by 20.2% [6]. - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative totaled 9.24 trillion yuan, growing by 4.2% [7]. Future Outlook - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 6.4 trillion yuan, growing by 9.3%, while automotive exports increased by 16.8% [10]. - June is expected to see continued growth in exports, driven by a "rush to export" to the US and efforts to explore other overseas markets [10]. - The macroeconomic policy is anticipated to strengthen, with potential financial support for struggling foreign trade enterprises [11].

海关总署6月9日发布最新数据显示，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值为17.94万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长2.5%。其中，出口10.67万亿 元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。 海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良表示，今年以来，我国经济持续回升向好，货物贸易在外部压力下保持较强韧性。进入5月份，我国进出口延续增长态势，特别是 中美经贸高层会谈之后，增速明显加快。当月在同比少2个工作日的情况下，进出口、出口分别实现2.7%、6.3%的同比增长。 对美进出口降幅收窄 "中美关税政策的阶段性调整能够带来一定的积极影响。前期145%的高关税极大地压制了需求，90天窗口刺激补货的动力，其积极效应可能有集中大规模显现的可 能。此外，对东盟等市场的出口将继续保持韧性增长，部分弥补对美贸易的损失。"对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院研究员陈建伟接受记者采访时表示。 与大多数贸易伙伴贸易往来保持增长 根据海关总署统计数据，今年1—5月，除意大利、美国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、巴西等国家，我国对其他主要国别（地区）的累计进出口值均保持增长。其中，非洲 与我国的贸易往来增长表现亮眼。海关总署数据显示，今年1—5月，我国 ...

进口方面，铁矿砂、原油和煤等主要大宗商品进口价格下跌，机电产品进口值增长。 新华社北京6月9日电（记者邹多为、张晓洁）海关总署9日发布数据显示，今年前5个月，我国货物 贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%，增速较前4个月加快0.1个百分点。其中，出口增长 7.2%，进口下降3.8%。 5月当月进出口3.81万亿元，比去年同期增长2.7%。其中，出口增长6.3%，进口下降2.1%。 海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良表示，今年以来，我国经济持续回升向好，货物贸易在外部压力下 保持较强韧性。进入5月份，我国进出口延续增长态势，特别是中美经贸高层会谈之后，增速明显加 快，当月在同比少2个工作日的情况下，实现平稳增长。 出口方面，机电产品仍为我国出口主力。前5个月，我国出口机电产品6.4万亿元，同比增长9.3%， 占出口比重的六成。其中，工业机器人、电动汽车、集成电路、工程机械分别增长55.4%、19%、 18.9%、10.7%。 值得一提的是，同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口9.24万亿元，同比增长4.2%；对非洲 国家进出口9632.1亿元，增长12.4%，规模创历史同期新高。（完） 作为进出口贸 ...

海关总署：民营企业、外商投资企业进出口增长 金十数据6月9日讯，前5个月，民营企业进出口10.25万亿元，增长7%，占我外贸总值的57.1%，比去年 同期提升2.4个百分点。其中，出口6.97万亿元，增长8%，占我出口总值的65.4%；进口3.28万亿元，增 长4.9%，占我进口总值的45.1%。同期，外商投资企业进出口5.21万亿元，增长2.3%，占我外贸总值的 29%。其中，出口2.88万亿元，增长6%；进口2.33万亿元，下降1.9%。国有企业进出口2.44万亿元，下 降12.7%，占我外贸总值的13.6%。其中，出口7994亿元，增长4.3%；进口1.64万亿元，下降19.1%。 （海关发布） ...