Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide a specific industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Future investment strategy suggests balanced style allocation, emphasizing technology, non - banking, and consumption sectors. For stock funds, A - share market may have a spring "good start" with policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals improving. For bond funds, short - term negative factors are repaired, but mid - term structural optimization is incomplete. Money funds have no trend investment opportunities in the long - term low - interest environment [3][4]. - Last week, the A - share market continued its upward trend and had a good start, with satellite, AI application, and non - ferrous sectors performing well. The bond market declined, the US stock market reached a new high, and oil and gold prices rose due to geopolitical risks. Funds heavily invested in medical, semiconductor, and military sectors performed well [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: Continued the upward trend and had a good start during 20260105 - 20260111. Satellite, AI application, and non - ferrous sectors were strong. The satellite sector's popularity and IPO benefits drove the military sector; AI company listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange boosted the AI application sector; the US military action in Venezuela affected non - ferrous metal supply and pushed up the sector. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82% to 4120.43, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40% to 14120.15. The trading volume was 14.13 trillion yuan, with a daily average increase of about 1.56 trillion yuan compared to the previous week. Among industries, defense, media, non - ferrous, computer, and medical sectors led the increase [4][6][7]. - **Bond Market**: Declined as the strong A - share market suppressed it. The 1 - year Treasury yield dropped 5BP to 1.29%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 3BP to 1.88%. Credit spreads narrowed. The ChinaBond Aggregate Net Price Index fell 0.24%, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45% [4][8]. - **Overseas Market**: The US stock market reached a new high, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.32%, the S&P 500 rising 1.57%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.88%. European and most Asian markets also rose, except for the Hang Seng Index which fell 0.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69%. Geopolitical risks from the US military action in Venezuela increased oil and gold prices [4][9]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock Funds**: Rose 4.92%. Some funds heavily invested in medical, semiconductor, and military sectors performed well. Index funds related to satellite, semiconductor, and media themes did well [4][10][11]. - **Bond Funds**: Rose 0.29%. Partial - debt funds and convertible bond funds with semiconductor and computer in their equity allocation performed well. Among pure - debt funds, those mainly investing in high - grade credit bonds and medium - short - term bonds did better [4][10][11]. - **QDII Funds**: Equity QDII funds rose 2.62%, with funds mainly investing in medicine and semiconductor themes performing well. QDII bond funds rose 0.10% [4][10][12]. - **Money Funds**: Had an annualized yield of 1.58%. Different types of摊余成本法债 funds had different yields [11]. - **Gold ETF and Linked Funds**: Rose 2.85%. Commodity funds rose 2.64% [13]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Stock Market**: Policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals are expected to improve, and the A - share market may have a spring "good start". Industries with good prospects are technology, non - banking, and consumption. It is recommended to have a balanced style allocation and focus on these sectors [4][14][15]. - **Bond Market**: Short - term negative factors are repaired, but mid - term structural optimization is incomplete. It is recommended to focus on interest - rate bonds with flexible durations and products that mainly invest in high - grade and highly liquid credit bonds [4][15]. - **Money Market**: There are no trend investment opportunities in the long - term low - interest environment [4][15]. - **Commodity Market**: It is advisable to appropriately allocate gold ETFs for long - term and hedging investments [15]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **QDII Quota**: Under the background of promoting inclusive finance, QDII quotas should be more used in public - offering products. Fund companies need to adjust the proportion of QDII quotas used in public - offering and private - placement products, reducing the private - placement quota ratio to within 20% by the end of 2027 and completing at least half of the adjustment by the end of 2026 [17]. - **Fund Sales Fee Regulations**: The official version of the regulations relaxes the redemption fee constraints for bond funds and fine - tunes the subscription and purchase fees. Bond ETFs may become important tools for liquidity management and trading by wealth management institutions. Wealth management funds may gradually increase their allocation to equity funds, with broad - based index funds and low - volatility "fixed - income +" products being more popular [18]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: 11 new funds were established last week, including 3 low - position ordinary FOF funds, 2 strong - equity hybrid funds, 2 stock ETFs, etc. The average subscription days were about 12 days, and the average raised share was 7.45 billion, with a total of 81.91 billion shares [19]. - **Upcoming Fund Dividends**: 99 funds will conduct equity registration in the coming week. The most notable is the Chang Sheng Aerospace and Marine Equipment A, with a dividend of 2.764 yuan per 10 shares [20].

Group 1: Market Trends and Opportunities - A-shares continue to show a trend of oscillating upward, with a focus on structural investment opportunities as the market may experience increased short-term volatility [1] - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities during market fluctuations, particularly before the Spring Festival, and to pay attention to the performance forecasts of listed companies as the reporting window opens in January [1] - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, robotics, controllable nuclear fusion, and quantum technology, along with a clear recovery path in manufacturing and resource sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment [1][5] Group 2: Regulatory and Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of deepening comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce outlines key work for 2026, prioritizing actions to boost consumption, including the promotion of the "Buy in China" brand and the development of new growth points in service consumption [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - China Galaxy Securities highlights the potential for structural investment opportunities in AI, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace, as well as a clear recovery path in manufacturing and resource sectors [5] - Zhongtai Securities recommends focusing on the robotics sector, which has seen consistent capital inflow and remains a key area of interest [6] - Bank of China Securities notes that AI applications offer a high cost-performance ratio, with the AI industry experiencing various phases of market rotation since 2025 [7] - Yongying Fund anticipates that AI technology will continue to be a market driving force, with a shift in market narrative expected towards fundamental improvements [8] - Huaxia Fund observes an increase in the investment potential of Hong Kong stocks, with improved valuation compared to the U.S. Nasdaq index [9] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Fund reports a sustained high level of activity in the engineering machinery sector, with domestic demand and export growth contributing to an upward trend [10]

Group 1 - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the A-share market, driven by a slow bull market expectation, seasonal market movements, and global market synchronization, indicating a favorable investment window from mid-December 2025 to early March 2026 [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly those that have previously underperformed but have catalysts for growth, in light of valuation expansion and liquidity easing [4][7] - Key investment areas include commercial aerospace, satellite industries, AI applications, humanoid robots, domestic AI computing power, and sectors benefiting from price increases such as storage chips, consumer electronics, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [4][13][15] Group 2 - Recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand include optimizing service industry loans and implementing interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, which are expected to significantly enhance consumer demand [7][8] - Domestic prices are showing a mild upward trend, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month in December, driven by increased consumer spending during the holiday season [8][9] - The report highlights the distinction between "anti-involution" and monopoly, indicating that price increases and profit margins are key factors in differentiating the two concepts, with ongoing reforms expected to support price recovery in certain industries [10][12] Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been compressed, with a low probability of rate cuts in January 2026, but a cumulative reduction of about 50 basis points is anticipated throughout the year [11] - The technology sector is experiencing structural inflation characteristics, with new economic sectors showing price increases while traditional sectors remain weak, indicating a divergence in price trends [12] - The report maintains that the A-share market is likely to enter a new bullish phase, encouraging the acquisition of quality A-share assets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and technology growth sectors [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new phase with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points for the first time in 10 years, marking a 16-day consecutive rise, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in "hard technology" and resource sectors [1][13]. Market Drivers - The rapid iteration and upgrade of industries such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and brain-computer interfaces are fundamental supports for the market's sustained rise [4]. - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and foreign capital's positive outlook on Chinese assets are likely to boost overall A-share valuations [7]. - The current market sentiment reflects a shift from a "long-term bear market mindset" to a "trend upward mindset," which can create significant upward momentum [11][15]. Structural Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a structural optimistic phase driven by the resonance of policy, liquidity, and industrial cycles, rather than being merely a seasonal rally or driven by capital [14]. - The dual logic behind this market rally includes breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing fields like semiconductors and AI, alongside resource sectors benefiting from global inflation expectations and energy security strategies [14][18]. Investment Strategies - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on both "hard technology" and resource sectors, as these areas are expected to yield significant returns [31][33]. - The focus on AI hardware is emphasized over applications due to the current technological landscape, while the resource sector is seen as a defensive asset with high dividend yields [32][24]. Market Outlook - Following the breakthrough of 4100 points, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase rather than a rapid ascent, with key observations including the stability of capital structure and the breadth of sector rotation [35][36]. - The market's future trajectory will depend on several factors, including the trend of the RMB, the pace of foreign capital inflow, and the verification of industry fundamentals [36].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new phase with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points for the first time in 10 years, marking a significant bullish trend characterized by a 16-day consecutive rise, indicating a potential "spring rally" [1][15][16] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Current market sentiment is improving, driven by supportive policies and internal economic momentum, suggesting a critical turning point [2][20] - The rapid iteration and upgrade of industries such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals are fundamental supports for the market's sustained rise [4][22] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and foreign capital favoring Chinese assets are likely to boost overall A-share valuations [7][30] Group 2: Investment Strategies - A balanced investment strategy focusing on both "hard technology" and resource sectors is recommended, as these areas are expected to yield significant returns [23][33] - The market is shifting from broad-based speculation to a focus on core sectors, emphasizing the need for a diversified approach to mitigate risks [24][34] - The current market environment suggests a preference for sectors with high dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in metals and technology [25][26] Group 3: Risks and Opportunities - The primary risk involves the potential for corporate earnings to fail to meet high expectations, which could lead to valuation corrections [28][29] - The market's current focus on a few sectors may lead to volatility if those sectors underperform, necessitating careful monitoring of earnings reports [28][29] - The transition from a long-term bearish mindset to a trend-oriented perspective could create upward momentum, as investors adjust their expectations [11][17] Group 4: Future Outlook - Following the breakthrough of 4100 points, the market is likely to enter a consolidation phase rather than a rapid ascent, with key indicators to watch including liquidity trends and sector performance [36][38] - The dual focus on "hard technology" and resources is expected to continue driving market dynamics, with potential for sector rotation and new opportunities emerging [16][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring season presents a favorable environment for investment, characterized by ample liquidity and positive macroeconomic indicators, which are expected to drive market performance [1][2] - The analysis indicates that the current market is experiencing a "spring rally," supported by increased inflows from various types of investors, including ETFs, insurance funds, and foreign capital, which collectively enhance market risk appetite [1][2] - The upcoming political events, such as the Two Sessions and potential visits from foreign leaders, are anticipated to provide additional policy catalysts that could further stimulate market activity [1][2] Group 2 - The short-term market sentiment is currently high, with indicators suggesting that the upward trend may continue until the Two Sessions, driven by improved domestic demand expectations [2][3] - Historical data suggests that A-shares have not experienced three consecutive years of valuation increases, but 2026 may break this trend, with a potential recovery in overall ROE [2][4] - Various sectors, particularly those related to technology and materials, have shown signs of short-term consolidation after previous upward trends, indicating a potential for further investment opportunities [2][4] Group 3 - The analysis highlights that the current market dynamics are influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment, creating a positive feedback loop that encourages further capital inflow [1][2] - The spring season is marked by a series of favorable time windows for investment, with specific months identified as having historically high success rates for market performance [1][2] - The focus on thematic investments, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace and robotics, is expected to remain strong, with potential for significant returns as these industries continue to develop [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metal and new materials industry, indicating a favorable spring market [1]. Core Insights - The metal sector has shown strong performance, with the non-ferrous metal index rising by 8.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.77 percentage points [4][6]. - Key metals such as gold, aluminum, and lithium have experienced significant price increases, reflecting robust demand and supply dynamics [8][16]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply chain disruptions and inventory levels, particularly in copper and aluminum, which are expected to influence future price trends [29][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.82%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.40% week-on-week [4]. - The non-ferrous metal index's performance indicates a strong recovery in the sector, with various sub-sectors such as precious metals and aluminum showing notable gains [8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals have seen price increases, with copper up by 4.24%, aluminum by 4.00%, and lithium compounds experiencing even higher increases, such as lithium carbonate rising by 17.95% [14][16]. - The report notes that the price of gold has also increased by 4.07%, reflecting ongoing demand amid economic uncertainties [14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that copper production is facing disruptions due to labor negotiations in Chile, which may impact supply and pricing in the short term [29]. - The demand for lithium remains strong, driven by the energy storage sector, with prices for lithium hydroxide and carbonate continuing to rise [16]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, are highlighted for their strong earnings potential and favorable valuations, with projected PE ratios indicating growth opportunities [17]. - The report suggests that companies with integrated operations and cost advantages, such as Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao, are well-positioned for future growth [17].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic for 2026, with expectations of continued price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, despite concerns about high valuations and potential risks in the market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index rising over 8% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historical high of 3369 points on January 9 [1]. - In 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Index recorded a cumulative increase of 91.67%, with leading stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper seeing price increases of 200.7% and 166% respectively [2]. - The futures market also reflected this trend, with LME copper futures prices increasing by over 40% in 2025, and LME tin and aluminum rising by 39% and 17% respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the demand for metals such as copper and aluminum will continue to rise due to increased global electricity construction and investment in power infrastructure, which is expected to outpace GDP growth [2][6]. - The electric aluminum sector is anticipated to mirror the coal market's performance from 2022 to 2024, with limited supply and high dividend yields making it attractive for value investors [3]. - The ongoing macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to create a favorable backdrop for both precious and non-ferrous metals [6]. Group 3: Institutional Activity and Caution - There has been a surge in public fund applications for non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest in the sector [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, there is a growing caution among market participants regarding high valuations, with the price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous sector rising from 2 to approximately 3.5 [6]. - Analysts recommend a balanced approach, advising against blindly chasing high valuations while recognizing the ongoing demand and investment opportunities in the sector [6][7].

Core Viewpoints - The latest strategies from top brokerages indicate a bullish sentiment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors like technology, traditional manufacturing, and resource pricing power [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a "rally" phase, with significant trading volume and a risk appetite resurgence, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points [4][6] - The market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory until the Spring Festival, driven by favorable macroeconomic indicators and increased participation from institutional investors [3][4][11][13] Group 2: Sector Focus - Brokerages recommend focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robotics, which are anticipated to benefit from policy support and market trends [3][7][12][14] - Traditional manufacturing and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential in pricing power enhancement, with suggestions to increase allocations in non-bank financials [2][4][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies emphasize a balanced approach, suggesting a mix of growth-oriented and cyclical sectors, with a focus on themes like "anti-involution" and price recovery in industries such as chemicals and metals [7][8][14] - The importance of monitoring market sentiment and performance metrics is stressed, particularly as the market enters a period of earnings announcements and potential volatility [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].