Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Team: Research Center Black Team - Date: May 14, 2025 Spot Market Australian Iron Ore - The latest price of the Platts 62 index is 98.60, with a daily change of 0.60 and a weekly change of 1.70 [2]. - For Newman and PB powders, the latest prices are 757 and 765 respectively, with daily changes of -5 and -4, and weekly changes of 4 and 6. Their import profits are -23.55 and -2.01 [2]. - The price of Mac fines is 745, with a daily change of -2, a weekly change of 7, and an import profit of -1.93 [2]. - The price of Jinbuba is 724, with a daily change of -5, a weekly change of 3, and an import profit of 4.38 [2]. - The price of mixed fines is 675, with a daily change of -3, a weekly change of 17, and an import profit of 0.61 [2]. - The price of Super Special fines is 630, with a daily change of -5, a weekly change of 6, and an import profit of -8.87 [2]. Brazilian Iron Ore - The price of Carajás fines is 853, with a daily change of -2, a weekly change of 3, and an import profit of -13.47 [2]. - The price of Brazilian Blend is 776, with a daily change of -4, a weekly change of 3, and an import profit of -8.49 [2]. - The price of Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 737, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of 4 [2]. - The price of Brazilian coarse SSFT is 752, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of 4 [2]. - The price of Brazilian iron ore concentrate is 847, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 3 [2]. Non - mainstream Iron Ore - The price of Ukrainian iron ore concentrate is 820, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of -5 [2]. - The price of 61% Indian fines is 704, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 3 [2]. - The price of Karara iron ore concentrate is 820, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 5 [2]. - The price of Roy Hill fines is 735, with a daily change of -4, a weekly change of 6, and an import profit of 16.01 [2]. - The price of South African fines is 825, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of 6 [2]. - The price of 58% Indian fines is 582, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 6 [2]. - The price of Robe River fines is 690, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of 6 [2]. - The price of Atlas fines is 670, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 17 [2]. Others - The price of PB lump/ lump ore premium is 905, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 5 [2]. - The price of Ukrainian pellets/ pellet premium is 820, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of -5 [2]. - The price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate is 939, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 6 [2]. Futures Market Dalian Commodity Exchange - The latest price of the i2601 contract is 684.5, with a daily change of -2.5 and a weekly change of 5.0. The monthly spread is 30.0, and the basis is 103.1 [2]. - The latest price of the i2505 contract is 778.0, with a daily change of 17.0 and a weekly change of 17.0. The monthly spread is -93.5, and the basis is 9.6 [2]. - The latest price of the i2509 contract is 714.5, with a daily change of -4.0 and a weekly change of 10.0. The monthly spread is 63.5, and the basis is 73.1 [2]. Singapore Exchange - The latest price of the FE01 contract is 94.46, with a daily change of 2.72 and a weekly change of 2.70. The difference is -84.4 [2]. - The latest price of the FE05 contract is 100.49, with a daily change of 2.24 and a weekly change of 2.84. The monthly spread is -6.03, and the difference is -40.0 [2]. - The latest price of the FE09 contract is 97.08, with a daily change of 2.89 and a weekly change of 2.90 [2].

| 财产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 118 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 108 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3310 | 30 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3033 | 3036 | -3 | 187 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3079 | 3082 | -3 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3102 | 3103 | -1 | 118 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 32 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | -18 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a mixed supply and demand situation, with a slight decrease in global shipments and high iron production, leading to fluctuations in prices. Group 1: Market Data - On May 13, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in China reached 747,000 tons, a decrease of 27.90% month-on-month [1] - As of May 13, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 148.86 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons compared to May 8 [1] - Satellite data indicates that from May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.07 million tons, a decrease of 101,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, global shipment volumes have slightly decreased, with Australian port repairs reducing shipments, while Brazilian shipments have significantly declined [2] - Iron production has increased to 2.4564 million tons, leading to a reduction in both port and steel mill inventories [2] - Guodu Futures notes that the supply of iron ore is weak while demand remains strong, with a decrease in arrivals and high production levels at steel mills [3] Group 3: Price Outlook - The current high iron production levels are supporting prices, but expectations of peak production and weak terminal demand are limiting upward price movement [3] - The strategy for the September contract is to expect limited upward trends, with a focus on a 700-point central fluctuation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - The steel industry shows strong supply - demand on the industrial side with continuous inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the market, and improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the valuation of iron ore is expected to be repaired, but in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained. The high - level of molten iron production is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase in the future [4]. Coke - The coke market is in a weak pattern. The spot market is slightly declining, and the futures market has a large hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal market is in a situation of loose supply - demand. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The cost is relatively stable, and with positive macro - level news, the price is expected to rebound based on valuation repair [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese market is in a situation where production is decreasing, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing. With positive macro - level news, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound based on valuation repair [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some falling. Futures contract prices also show fluctuations [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while some steel production costs increased. Profits in different regions and varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 0.2 to 245.6 tons, with a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 tons to 874.2 tons, a 1.1% decrease. Rebar production decreased significantly by 4.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 tons to 1476.1 tons, a 2.0% increase. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 27.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 12.9%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased significantly [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 - contract for different varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 49.4%, while the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads changed [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.5%, the global shipment volume decreased by 4.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average ore - discharging volume decreased by 5.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices in different regions and futures contract prices showed fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The coking profit increased significantly [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.8%, and the inventories of full - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contract prices decreased. The basis increased, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal, represented by coke production, decreased slightly [6]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the inventories of full - sample coking plants and ports decreased [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 0.4%. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased [8]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3.9%, and the operating rate increased by 5.8% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 1.1%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [8]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract decreased by 1.0%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained stable, and the production profit situation was not significantly changed [8]. Supply - Silicomanganese production decreased by 1.1%, and the operating rate decreased by 7.9% [8]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand decreased by 1.8%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9% [8].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：5月13日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 3082 | 3105 | 3115 | 3066 | 3079 | 0.88% | 1,930,069 | 2,151,176 | -29,285 | -0.68 | | HC2510 | 3220 | 3245 | 3255 | 3202 ...

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 765 CNY/ton and Brazilian mixed powder at 776 CNY/ton [1] - The main iron ore futures contract increased by 1.06% (+7.5) to close at 714.5 CNY/ton [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder, with warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder at 810 CNY and 795 CNY respectively. The basis for the 09 contract PB powder is 96 CNY/ton [2] Demand Metrics - Daily average pig iron production is 2.4564 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.22 million tons; the blast furnace operating rate is 84.62%, up by 0.29%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 92.09%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; and the steel mill profit margin is 58.87%, up by 2.59 percentage points [3] Supply Dynamics - Global shipments have slightly rebounded this week, with a decrease of 21.5 million tons to 30.29 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 24.225 million tons, down by 1.18 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.972 million tons, up by 0.28 million tons, with 15.938 million tons sent to China, an increase of 0.755 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.252 million tons, down by 1.46 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.546 million tons, down by 0.951 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of May 8, the inventory at 45 ports stands at 142.387 million tons, a decrease of 0.6377 million tons; steel mills have slightly resumed production, and the profit margin for steel mills has improved. The imported ore inventory at steel mills decreased by 3.7607 million tons to 89.5898 million tons, as inventory was consumed during the holiday period [5] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced a spike and subsequent pullback, with night trading accelerating upward. The average daily pig iron production has slightly increased week-on-week, maintaining a high level. SMM reports an increase in maintenance at steel mills, with a rise in maintenance for construction materials and hot-rolled coils, suggesting a potential peak in pig iron production. Inventory levels have decreased to a yearly low, with port inventories slightly declining. The outlook for the market indicates that terminal demand for finished steel will determine the sustainability of high pig iron production levels, with marginal changes influenced by exports and infrastructure projects. Current data shows unexpected high exports of steel billets, and SMM's high-frequency steel export data has surged. However, the supply-demand pressure for iron ore is expected to increase in the coming months due to a surge in overseas mine shipments, while macroeconomic sentiment may provide short-term support. The short-term valuation of iron ore is expected to recover, but a bearish outlook is maintained for the medium to long term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has been significantly boosted by the better - than - expected results of the China - US trade negotiation, causing the rebar to rebound from its low level. However, the increase in inventory and the decline in apparent demand have dampened bullish sentiment. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectation remains unchanged. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider buying at low prices after full adjustment [2]. - Currently, the profitability of steel mills is decent, and the molten iron is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly rely on technical analysis, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1 Market Background - The results of the China - US trade negotiation have far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The production has decreased, factory inventory has increased significantly, social inventory has continued to decline, total inventory has increased, and apparent demand has dropped sharply. Policy - side benefits have basically materialized, and the real - estate market in core cities has stabilized while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The rumor of production restriction has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that a production restriction policy is likely to be introduced this year [2]. 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - In the short term, there has been a significant rebound, and after a downward trend, it has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. 3.1.3 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. After the negative factors are fully priced in and full adjustment, consider buying at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to avoid short - term profit - taking [2]. 3.1.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3079 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.06% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3215 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.59% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [2]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The rebar main base is 141 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 8 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil main base is 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day and up 1 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different futures spreads [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 223.53 tons, down 4.22% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 320.38 tons, up 2.79% from last week. The inventory of five major varieties of social inventory, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, and five major varieties of factory inventory shows different trends of increase and decrease [2]. - **Market Transaction Data**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 18.65 tons, down 17.68% from the previous day and up 66.31% from last week; the line - screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai is 13200 tons, down 9.59% from last week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 148997 tons, down 19706 tons from the previous day and 42344 tons from last week; the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 281489 tons, down 9957 tons from the previous day and 42000 tons from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Background - The profitability of steel mills is good, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced, it will suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level and rising seasonally, and the current slowdown in port inventory decline and high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices [4]. 3.2.2 Technical Analysis - The futures price has broken through the recent oscillation range, the open interest has continued to increase, and the price has dropped to near the long - term trend line [4]. 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - Judge mainly based on technical trends, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3.2.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 714.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.56% from the previous day and up 1.42% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.51 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.49% from the previous day and up 3.95% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The base between McFadden powder (Qingdao Port) and the DCE iron ore main contract is 30.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 3 yuan from last week; the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 31.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different spreads [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1601.8 tons, up 0.19% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 548.1 tons, down 16.42% from last week. The port inventory is 14238.71 tons, down 0.45% from last week [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, unchanged from the previous day and last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - According to Mysteel, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on May 16, 2025 [6]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 850 tons, a decrease of 35 tons (4.0%) from the previous period. The inventory decline rate has slightly narrowed, an increase of 191 tons (29.0%) from the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 305 tons (26.4%) from the same period last year [6]. - According to Mysteel, an alloy factory in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, has recently reduced production of two 33000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces, expected to affect the daily output by about 400 tons; a large ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise in Chongqing has shut down two submerged arc furnaces since 12:00 on May 12, 2025, and the resumption time is to be determined, affecting the daily output by 400 tons [6]. - According to Brazilian customs data, in April 2025, the total export volume of Brazilian manganese ore was 66600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.99% and a year - on - year increase of 23.68%. Among them, the export volume of manganese ore to China was 63800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2418.44% and a year - on - year increase of 245.28% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Tariff cuts exceed expectations, demand expectations are revised upward, and macro - sentiment improvement is expected to repair valuations. The industry has strong supply and demand and continuous de - stocking. Pay attention to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices and the pressure in specific price ranges for different contracts [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract rebounded due to macro - level sentiment. Fundamentally, daily iron - water production remains high, and inventory pressure eases. The sustainability of high iron - water production depends on terminal demand for finished products, and the supply - demand pressure may increase in the future. It is expected to have short - term valuation repair but a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long - term [4]. Coke - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results. The second round of spot price increase is difficult to implement, and the market is bearish. Although the fundamentals have improved, factors such as weak coking coal, over - capacity, and lack of pricing power lead to a weak downward trend. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results, but the spot market is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - The futures main contract continued to rebound. Supply pressure has eased after previous production cuts, but inventory is still at a medium - to - high level. Demand is cautious, and cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the trend - based market lacks momentum [7]. Ferromanganese - The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a basis for continuous rebound. Production is in a state of reduction, and demand is affected by factors such as iron - water production and finished - product inventory. Manganese ore prices are expected to stabilize. It is expected that the price will oscillate and bottom - build, and then rebound [7]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have increased. The basis and spreads also show certain changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have increased, while some costs and profits of steel products have decreased, such as the profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions [1]. Supply - The daily average iron - water production has a slight increase, while the production of five major steel products and rebar has decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils has a slight increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar has increased, while the inventory change shows a certain trend [1]. Demand - Building material trading volume has a slight increase, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils has decreased [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore varieties such as warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed significantly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and global shipment volume have decreased, while monthly import volume has a slight decrease [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase, and monthly pig iron and crude - steel production have increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills have decreased [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The coking profit has increased [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills has a slight decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory and the inventory of different sectors, such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke has a certain change [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The sample coal - mine profit has a slight decrease [6]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines is at a relatively high level, and the import volume of coking coal has changed due to various factors [6]. Demand - Downstream users purchase coking coal on - demand as the blast - furnace and coking - plant operations increase [6]. Inventory - The coal - mine inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, while the port inventory decreases, and the downstream inventory is at a low level [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferrosilicon futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the production profit has increased. The Lanzhou - charcoal price remains stable [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, and the production - enterprise start - up rate has increased [7]. Demand - The iron - water production remains high, but the downstream demand for procurement is cautious. The overseas demand has changes in quotation and inquiry [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has decreased, and the average available days for downstream users have decreased [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferromanganese futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased slightly, and the production profit has increased. The prices of manganese ore from different sources remain stable [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly shipment volume of manganese ore has decreased, while the arrival volume and port - clearance volume have increased [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The port inventory of manganese ore has decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferromanganese has decreased, and the start - up rate has decreased [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese has a slight decrease, and the procurement volume of a large enterprise remains stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased, and the average available days have increased slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market currently shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a relatively healthy fundamental situation, which provides support for iron ore prices. After the Sino - US Geneva talks, the tariff policy has been eased, and with the revision of downstream demand expectations, the iron ore price is expected to rebound in the near future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upwards, rising 3.16% to close at 718.5 yuan/ton. The prices of other steel futures also showed varying degrees of increase, such as RB2510 rising 1.52%, HC2510 rising 1.51%, and SS2507 rising 1.29% [5][7]. - In terms of positions, the long - short position changes of different contracts varied. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 18,164 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 5,325 hands, with a long - short difference of 12,839 hands and a deviation of 2.84% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - In the spot market on May 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by $2.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ and MACD indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed golden crosses [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Brazil decreased, while those from Australia increased slightly. The total shipments from 19 ports decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports also decreased slightly. However, the overall level was still moderately high. The shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.68% compared with the previous four weeks, and it is expected that the arrivals will remain at a moderately high level in the near future, with a loose iron ore supply [10][11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased again, reaching a new high of 2.4564 million tons since late October 2023. Steel mills maintained strong production, providing strong support for the actual demand for iron ore [11]. - **Inventory**: The available days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and the port inventory decreased slightly. As the arrivals remain at a high level, it is expected that the inventory will increase in the near future, but the increase space is limited [11]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [12]. - According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 317,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. The export of new energy vehicles was 200,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 27% and a year - on - year increase of 76%. From January to April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 1.295 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, and the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 52.6% [12]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks jointly stated that both sides will take measures to adjust tariffs. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will make corresponding adjustments to the tariffs on US goods. Both sides will also cancel some additional tariffs and take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. They will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [12][13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port iron ore trading volume, steel mill inventory available days, port inventory and dredging volume, and various production and consumption data of steel products [20][22][24].