稀土博弈烧到华盛顿！日本"断粮"危机下的疯狂反击 【前言】 "三天断供，半年停产"——日本企业界正经历着比海啸更凶猛的产业链地震。当中国商务部6日挥出稀土管制"重锤"，东京涩谷街头电子屏上的股价 数字如瀑布般坠落，大阪工厂里堆积如山的F-15J战机零件正在生锈，而高市早苗政府却揣着最后一张牌冲向华盛顿。这不仅是稀土战争的转折点， 更是中日美三方博弈的生死局——这一次，日本赌上了国运。 二、华盛顿的"稀土联盟"幻梦 就在日本企业界哀鸿遍野时，财务大臣片山皋月悄然登上飞往华盛顿的专机。这位以强硬著称的政坛铁娘子临行前放出狠话："要联合美欧打造民主 国家供应链，剥夺中国稀土武器化能力。"然而，这场被日媒吹捧为"稀土版马歇尔计划"的构想，从一开始就漏洞百出。 先看美国的态度。特朗普政府曾投入20亿美元扶持本土稀土企业，但结果令人尴尬——芒廷帕斯矿山复工后，提炼技术始终无法突破中国专利壁垒， 产量仅达设计产能的35%。更讽刺的是，美国国防部去年秘密测试发现，所谓"无稀土永磁体"性能仅及传统产品的60%，根本无法满足F-35战机需 求。五角大楼官员私下吐槽："我们连自己的供应链都建不起来，怎么帮日本？" 再观欧洲的反应。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between China and Japan has escalated from verbal exchanges to direct economic impacts, particularly affecting Japan's military and manufacturing sectors, leading to stock price declines and market panic [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on Japan - Japanese companies, particularly Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, experienced immediate stock price drops due to fears of supply disruptions [3]. - The Japanese industrial system, which has been a source of national pride, is facing severe challenges, with potential long-term consequences for its military capabilities [6][36]. - China's export controls on dual-use items, including critical materials for military applications, have effectively blocked Japan's access to essential resources [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Responses from Japan - The Japanese government is seeking assistance from the U.S. to mitigate the impact of China's actions, but initial responses have been disappointing [4][18]. - Japan's attempts to establish a "democratic supply chain" excluding China are seen as unrealistic, given the U.S.'s own reliance on Chinese supply chains [20][22]. - Domestic proposals for technological self-sufficiency or deep-sea mining are viewed as inadequate solutions to the immediate crisis [24][39]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - Japan's military projects are at risk, with at least 17 key projects facing significant delays due to material shortages, impacting defense capabilities [27][28]. - The potential for increased costs in sourcing materials from alternative suppliers could lead to budget inefficiencies, where Japan ends up spending more for less military output [32]. - The upcoming regulations from China are expected to further tighten access to critical materials, complicating Japan's recovery efforts [34]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The conflict highlights the interconnectedness of global supply chains and the challenges of decoupling from China, which could lead to severe economic repercussions for Japan [44]. - The situation underscores a cognitive battle about recognizing the realities of resource dependency and the limitations of political alliances in addressing economic vulnerabilities [43].

Core Insights - The European stock market started strong in 2026, with major indices, including Germany's benchmark index, reaching historical highs [2][20]. Seasonal Trends - January is typically a favorable month for the European stock market, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index showing an average increase of 0.26% over the past 20 years and a 56% probability of closing higher [3][20]. - The DAX index averages a 0.44% increase in January with a 57% chance of closing higher, while the CAC40 index shows a 0.58% average increase and a 57% closing probability [3][20]. - The Italian FTSE MIB index outperforms with an average increase of 1.23% and a 62% probability of closing higher [3][20]. - Historical data indicates that April and November often yield stronger and more stable returns compared to January [4]. Recent Performance - January 2023 and January 2025 were noted as the best-performing January periods for several European indices on record [5][21]. - The Euro Stoxx 50 index surged by 9.75% in January 2023 and by 7.98% in January 2025, while the DAX index rose by 8.65% in January 2023 and further increased by 9.16% in January 2025, reflecting renewed investor enthusiasm for cyclical and industrial stocks [6][22]. Notable Companies - **Alten SA**: This French engineering consulting firm has shown a significant seasonal increase in January, with an average rise of 4.13% over the past 20 years and a 71% chance of closing higher. In January 2023, the stock rose by 20.46% [10][11][26]. - **Accor SA**: The French hotel group has an average January increase of 4.3% and a 67% chance of closing higher. In January 2023, it experienced a notable surge of 28.1% due to a rebound in travel demand [13][27]. - **Sopra Steria Group SA**: This French IT consulting firm has a stable January performance with an average increase of 5.75% and a 76% chance of closing higher. It recorded a 23.25% rise in January 2012 [14][28]. - **Sartorius AG**: The German life sciences equipment supplier has an average January increase of 5.85% and a 67% chance of closing higher. In January 2025, the stock surged by 30.11% [15][29]. - **Rheinmetall AG**: The German defense giant has an average January increase of 7.74% with a remarkable 90% chance of closing higher. It has achieved double-digit increases in January for the past four years [16][30]. Significance of Seasonal Patterns - Seasonal patterns reflect investor behavior and market expectations, but they are not predictive tools. Major macroeconomic shocks or geopolitical events can disrupt these trends [17][31].

每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 2026年开年第一周，A股赚钱效应较好，上证指数创出十年新高，很多板块有所表现，长期跑输大盘的显示面板、钒矿板块启动，商业航天板块继续上 涨，新概念GEO受到市场追捧。 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛中，第81期比赛于1月5日开始，多位选手报名，抓住了行情机会。目前，上证指数步入主升浪，对于板块方向，参赛 高手怎么看呢？今日，他们对此做了一些分享。 此外，为方便选手了解有价值的信息，与高手交流市场热点和投资技巧。报名掘金大赛后，就能申请加入掘金大赛交流群，加群方法是：点击微信主页 右上角"+"号，选择"添加朋友"，然后点击"企业微信联系人"，输入手机号13882019385，添加企业微信火山君。 A股主升浪来了，高手看好这些主线 消息面上，据央视新闻，记者当地时间1月10日获悉，据多位知情美国官员透露，美国总统特朗普近日听取了关于对伊朗进行军事打击方案的简报，正在 认真考虑是否对伊朗发动打击。 在掘金大赛中，有参赛高手认为，地缘局势或将刺激军工板块。如无人机、军工金属等。军工金属包括中重稀土、锑、钼、钨、高温合金等等。有机构 称，我国高温合金的供需缺口达30%，其受到航 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the strong underlying drivers of the current bull market, including liquidity support, policy backing for capital markets, moderate fundamental recovery, and continuous industry catalysts, despite short-term overseas disturbances [1][9][10] - The report highlights the significant inflow into the A500 ETF, which accounted for 92.2% of the total net inflow of 110.6 billion yuan in December, indicating a strong market sentiment and confidence in the Chinese market [10][14] - The continuous appreciation of the RMB reflects a recovery in international capital confidence towards China, supported by a decline in the US dollar index and a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlements [18][19][21] Group 2 - The report identifies the small-cap index, CSI 2000, as an "invisible champion," outperforming the large-cap index during the recent market rally, supported by a favorable liquidity environment and moderate fundamental recovery [2][25] - The report suggests that the current bull market is characterized by a unique valuation expansion, where small-cap stocks face less resistance compared to large-cap stocks, potentially breaking the historical underperformance of small caps at year-end [2][25] - The report anticipates strong elasticity in small-cap stocks under conditions of risk appetite and liquidity support, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, suggesting that both can thrive simultaneously, driven by a global tech cycle and supportive policies [3][28] - It highlights the importance of monitoring the marginal change in profit growth (ΔG) for AI hardware, indicating that as long as ΔG remains stable, the sector is likely to continue benefiting from the ongoing valuation bull market [38] - The report notes that AI applications are transitioning from being a supporting role to becoming the core narrative of the tech sector, driven by policy support, demand release, and a mature industry ecosystem [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of A-share themes in 2023, highlighting the performance of various sectors and the potential pitfalls of blindly following market trends without a solid trading strategy [1][3]. Monthly Performance Summary - January: Human-like robots, stock Ji Dong Equipment, gained +84.49% [2] - February: AI computing, stock Capital Online, gained +150.97% but fell -26.25% the next month [2] - March: Chemicals, stock Zhongyida, gained +135.41% [2] - April: New retail, stock Guofang Group, gained +117.10% [2] - May: AI computing, stock Zhongyou Technology, gained +157.28% but fell -29.75% the next month [2] - June: Military industry, stock Beifang Changlong, gained +159.97% [2] - July: Human-like robots, stock Shangwei New Materials, gained +1083.42% but fell -9.85% the next month [2] - August: AI computing, stock Cambricon, gained +110.36% but fell -11.22% the next month [2] - September: Unknown sector, stock 688411.SH, gained +153.52% but fell -15.15% the next month [3] - October: Cross-strait relations, stock Pingtan Development, gained +99.44% and +51.55% the next month [3] - November: Cross-strait relations, stock Hefei China, gained +143.31% and +2.43% the next month [3] - December: Commercial aerospace, stock Aerospace Power, gained +104.83% [3] Overall Results - The cumulative return from this strategy was -4.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 by -22.46% [3]. - The analysis indicates that while chasing hot stocks is not inherently wrong, it is crucial to have a well-defined trading strategy [3]. Trading Strategy Insights - Stocks with a monthly gain exceeding 150% have an approximately 80% chance of declining the following month [4]. - Stocks driven by policy and industry support, with significant monthly gains, have a success rate exceeding 75% in the following month [4]. Key Questions for Analysis - Can the performance be supported by the company's earnings? - Is the stock at a peak or in a consolidation phase? What are the resistance levels? - Are there any negative factors on the horizon? [5] Sector Analysis Example - In December 2025, commercial aerospace emerged as a hot market concept, driven by policy and industry factors, with the national space agency expanding government procurement and a projected industry scale exceeding 2.5 trillion by 2025 [7]. - Key questions for evaluating this sector include recent policy support, investment trends, core companies' commercialization progress, and overall industry trends [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tightening of silver export controls by China has transformed silver from a secondary precious metal into a critical strategic resource, impacting global supply chains and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Export Control Changes - Starting January 1, 2026, silver exports from China will transition from a quota system to a licensing management model, requiring detailed reporting of buyer identities and end-use of goods [3]. - Only 44 companies have been granted export qualifications, effectively excluding smaller enterprises with annual production below 80 tons from the export market [3][21]. Group 2: Silver's Strategic Importance - Silver has become essential in high-tech industries, with the photovoltaic sector consuming 55% of global silver production, highlighting its critical role in solar energy conversion [7][9]. - The metal is also vital for electric vehicle control modules, 5G base station components, and AI server parts, making it irreplaceable in several strategic industries [9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years, with a supply gap of 3,660 tons in 2025, expected to widen in 2026 [15]. - Current silver inventories in London are at a decade-low of 233 tons, indicating a critical shortage in available supply [15]. Group 4: China's Dominance in Refining - Although China only produces 13% of the world's silver, it dominates the refining sector, processing 60% to 70% of global silver into high-purity products necessary for industrial use [11][13]. - China's ability to refine silver from by-products of copper and lead-zinc mining gives it a significant advantage in controlling the global silver supply chain [13]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the new export policy, silver prices experienced extreme volatility, with futures prices nearing historical highs before a sharp decline, reflecting market anxiety over supply shortages [19]. - The new regulations have led to a significant reshaping of the silver export landscape, with 90% of small traders being excluded, resulting in a more regulated market environment [21]. Group 6: Implications for Global Trade - Europe, heavily reliant on Chinese silver for photovoltaic applications, faces increased procurement costs or the need to develop alternative technologies, which may take years to implement [23]. - In contrast, China's domestic market is prioritizing supply for high-tech industries, with policies in place to ensure the availability of silver for critical sectors [25]. Group 7: Long-term Strategic Shifts - The tightening of silver export controls is part of a broader strategy by China to assert its influence in global resource markets, moving from a passive participant to an active rule-maker [31][33]. - The ongoing demand for silver in emerging technologies positions it as a key asset in the global resource competition, with implications for future market dynamics and pricing strategies [29][33].

Core Insights - The commodity market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift due to escalating geopolitical tensions and global supply chain restructuring, moving from a "just-in-time" model to a "just-in-case" stockpiling approach [1][2] - Countries are increasingly building strategic reserves to mitigate risks associated with potential wars, shipping disruptions, or geopolitical blockades, leading to a reconfiguration of supply and demand across various commodities [1][4] Group 1: Commodity Trends - Energy and strategic metals are becoming focal points for stockpiling, with countries potentially amassing around 1.4 billion barrels of oil, sufficient to sustain supply for hundreds of days, far exceeding the 90-day international norm [1][3] - The prices of critical military metals such as tungsten and cobalt have experienced significant volatility, with projected price increases of 229% and 120% respectively by 2025 [1][5] Group 2: Investment Implications - The shift in commodity dynamics suggests new trading themes for investors, particularly around "de-dollarization" and the demand for metals driven by national security needs [2][6] - Central banks are accelerating their gold purchases as a hedge against credit risk, with the share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 56.92%, prompting a shift in gold's pricing logic [6] Group 3: Market Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on capital market opportunities related to this macro narrative, such as European defense stocks and commodity ETFs, as funds are increasingly flowing into "hard assets" [7] - Gold mining stocks are also positioned to benefit, with all tracked gold miners achieving record profits at current gold prices, indicating a strong market for gold as a value storage asset [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current spring market is expected to favor technology growth and certain cyclical industries, with commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces emerging as key investment themes for the season [1][5]. Group 1: Spring Market Trends - The main phase of the spring market may witness a rebound, with industries benefiting from positive policies and trends likely to perform strongly [2]. - Historical data indicates that during the main phase of the spring market, sectors with low valuation sentiment and significant inflows of financing tend to experience a rebound [2]. - Industries such as communication, social services, and beauty care have shown strong performance during previous spring market phases due to favorable policies and industry trends [2]. Group 2: Technology and Cyclical Industries - Technology growth sectors like media, computing, and pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound in the upcoming spring market due to low valuations and sentiment [3]. - Supportive policies for technology growth and cyclical industries are likely to continue, with initiatives in commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence being implemented [3]. - The upward trend in industries related to commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence is anticipated to persist in the short term [3]. Group 3: Economic and Liquidity Outlook - The economy is expected to continue its weak recovery, with profit growth likely to rebound, as indicated by the rising PPI year-on-year growth [4]. - Macro liquidity is projected to further loosen, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and domestic central banks [4]. - Risk appetite in the market may continue to improve due to the implementation of positive policies and limited overseas risks [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The focus should remain on technology growth and cyclical growth sectors, as theme indices typically outperform primary industry indices during the main phase of the spring market [5]. - Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces are highlighted as key investment themes, with the space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 [5]. - Industries such as military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, gaming), and computing (AI applications, brain-computer interfaces) are recommended for low-cost allocation [5].

Group 1 - Japan's economy and industries are facing significant impacts due to China's export controls on dual-use items, particularly in critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [1] - Japan's reliance on rare earths, especially heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, is nearly 100%, which is crucial for military and electric vehicle applications. The export controls have led to a critical inventory shortage, with only 3-6 weeks of supply remaining. If the situation persists for a year, Japan's GDP could shrink by 0.43%, resulting in an economic loss of 2.6 trillion yen [1] - Major Japanese companies such as Toyota and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are forced to reduce production due to raw material shortages, with semiconductor production lines facing shutdown risks [1] Group 2 - Japan's military-industrial complex is severely affected, with high-end weapon production halted due to the inclusion of essential materials like heat-resistant alloys and carbon fibers in the export control list. Projects such as the F-15J fighter jet upgrade and hypersonic missile development are delayed [1] - The civilian sectors, including automotive and electronics, are experiencing supply chain disruptions. The automotive industry, particularly electric vehicle production, has seen a production drop of over 20% due to a 90% reliance on Chinese neodymium-iron-boron magnets [1] - The semiconductor industry is facing a wave of contract defaults due to the shortage of high-purity gallium and germanium [1] Group 3 - Japan's countermeasures against China's export controls are weak, revealing strategic deficiencies. Alternatives like deep-sea mining or sourcing from Australia are not viable in the short term due to a fivefold increase in costs and a 15-year lag in refining technology compared to China [3] - Japan's export structure to China is heavily imbalanced, with 17% of its total exports going to China, compared to only 4% of China's exports going to Japan. This places Japan at a significant disadvantage in the economic confrontation [5] Group 4 - Domestic tensions in Japan are escalating, with strong dissatisfaction in the economic sector regarding political statements, leading to calls for a no-confidence motion against the cabinet. The Nikkei index dropped by 556 points in a single day, reflecting public panic [5] - Japan's diplomatic isolation is increasing, with South Korea seizing the opportunity to capture market share in semiconductors. Although the U.S. appears to support Japan, it is simultaneously raising military sales prices and delaying weapon deliveries, highlighting cracks in the alliance [5] Group 5 - China's export control measures are strategically designed, covering 1,030 dual-use items across ten industry categories, with a "catch-all clause" to prevent any support for Japan's military capabilities. A third-party transfer accountability mechanism is in place to block circumvention paths [4] - The measures are not a complete embargo; trade in civilian sectors can still occur under compliance review, while military-related applications are largely rejected. This approach fulfills export control laws and international non-proliferation obligations, signaling that crossing red lines will incur consequences [6] - The export controls directly target Japan's resource scarcity and economic structural issues, causing short-term disruptions in the supply chain while pressuring Japan to adjust its policy towards China. Further losses are anticipated if Japan does not retract its controversial statements regarding Taiwan [6]