Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific views and strategies for glass and纯碱 (soda ash) separately: - **Glass**: Short - term: Oscillate weakly; Medium - term: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Trend: Weakly [3] 2. Core Views - **Glass**: Short - term pressure comes from the unclear implementation of anti - deflation and anti - involution policies and the weak real - estate market. Although the policy factors are not clearly falsified, the demand is still not optimistic. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The problems of high production and high inventory persist. Without large - scale production cuts or continuous improvement in the glass market, the price will be under pressure. The market is expected to be in an oscillating or weakly - priced state, depending on the actual situation of the glass industry and the implementation of anti - involution measures [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Supply**: A 700 - ton/day production line in Dalian resumed ignition, with no water - draining or plate - guiding production lines. The weekly production remained stable. As of October 16, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) in China after excluding zombie lines, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th [2]. - **Demand**: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days, a 5.5% week - on - week decrease and a 21.2% year - on - year decrease. Some enterprises reported a decline in orders, and some were in a no - order state, while others had project orders that could last for 20 - 40 days. Enterprises with pre - stocked raw materials were mainly digesting their inventories [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a 2.31% week - on - week increase and an 11.14% year - on - year increase. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period. Inventories in North China, East China, and Central China increased, while those in South China decreased slightly [2]. - **Price and Profit**: Recent spot transactions were poor, and prices in some regions decreased. The basis strengthened as futures prices fell more than spot prices. The profit for petroleum - coke fuel was about 91 yuan/ton, - 80 yuan/ton for natural - gas fuel, and 139 yuan/ton for coal fuel [15][20][23]. - **Inventory and Downstream开工率**: Recent spot transactions weakened, and the market mainly accumulated inventory. The impact of seasonal factors in the fourth quarter has weakened, but the inventory - reduction situation in the fourth quarter continues [31][34]. Photovoltaic Glass - **Price and Profit**: Recent market transactions began to weaken, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was about 20 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous week [41][43]. - **Capacity and Inventory**: Market transactions weakened, and inventories in some regions began to rise. The sample inventory days were about 18.87 days, a 25.64% week - on - week increase [44][51]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Maintenance**: There were phased maintenance and production cuts in soda - ash enterprises. The production capacity utilization rate was 85%, down from 88.4% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 415,500 tons. Some enterprises had maintenance plans, and the total maintenance volume in the fourth quarter was generally low [55][56]. - **Price and Profit**: The quotations of futures - cash merchants decreased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the low - end price in the Shahe area was 1,150 yuan/ton. Enterprise quotations changed little. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 129 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 30 yuan/ton [72][77]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers was about 1.7 million tons. The inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 940,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [60][62][65].

产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 郎志杰（联系人） 0755-233751212 langzj@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 旺季需求不振， 盘面预期悲观 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F3030112 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/10/18 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 周度要点小结 价格：截至2025/10/17，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1180元/吨，环比-50元/吨；玻璃主力合约收盘报1147元/吨，环比-71元/吨；基差63元/吨， 环比上周+51元/吨。 成本利润：截至2025/10/17，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-79.84元/吨，环比+0.72元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价3950元/吨， 环比-20元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为139.67元/吨，环比-4.26元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Glass - Last week, glass cost and profit both increased. The supply rose as previously commissioned production lines started outputting glass, and there's a possibility of output increase in some Shahe production lines but the time is uncertain. Currently in the peak season, demand has recovered, with downstream procurement being active due to price hikes by glass factories, leading to a rise in apparent demand. Glass factory inventories decreased due to price hikes and pre - holiday restocking demand. After the National Day, the downstream's willingness to accept goods and price transmission need further observation. It's advisable to hold an empty position before the holiday, and the 1 - 5 month spread may strengthen. The glass index is expected to range between 1200 - 1280. Key events to watch include glass output, glass factory inventories, and glass spot prices [5][6][7]. 纯碱 - Last week, soda ash production increased and is at a high level. With the upcoming commissioning of Alxa Phase II, production is expected to continue rising. Demand for heavy soda ash is strongly supported by the increasing output of photovoltaic and float glass, while light soda ash demand is relatively stable. Pre - holiday restocking led to a decrease in soda ash factory inventories, but in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser and inventory accumulation is inevitable. Soda ash cost increased and profit declined last week. It's advisable to hold an empty position before the holiday, and the 1 - 5 month spread is expected to weaken. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1260 - 1330. Key events to watch include soda ash factory maintenance, inventory accumulation, and glass output [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - The mainstream market glass prices are running strongly. As of September 26, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1200 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous period, and in Central China, it was 1270 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton [9][10]. Supply - The output of float glass increased month - on - month. Some production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired due to coal - to - gas conversion, but the time is undetermined. Last week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons (+0.3), and the national float glass operating rate was 76.01% (+0) [12][14]. Demand - In the peak season, glass demand has recovered. Due to price hikes by glass factories, downstream procurement is active, driving up the apparent demand. As of September 28, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 10.5 days (+0.1), and last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 24.0375 million weight boxes (+938,000) [16][18]. Inventory - Glass factory inventories decreased due to price hikes and pre - holiday restocking. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes (-1.553 million), and the in - factory inventory in Hubei was 4.67 million weight boxes (-390,000). Regionally, East China's inventory decreased, with improved production and sales; North China's inventory decreased significantly after being boosted by news; Southwest China's inventory increased slightly; Central China's inventory decreased [20][22][26]. Cost and Profit - Glass cost and profit both increased last week. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1396 yuan/ton (+0), using coal - gas as fuel was 1018 yuan/ton (+3), and using petroleum coke as fuel was 1067 yuan/ton (+11). The corresponding weekly average profits were - 151.27 yuan/ton (+13.57), 95.07 yuan/ton (+1.04), and 61.37 yuan/ton (+20) [27][29][33]. Basis and Month Spread - As of September 26, the glass 01 basis was - 92, up 44 from the previous week; the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 120, up 7 from the previous week. The basis is at a low level in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the weakened supply - demand pattern. If price hikes can be passed on to the downstream, it will drive the basis and month spread upwards [35][37]. Soda Ash Price - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are fluctuating weakly. As of September 26, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 980 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week, and the market price of heavy soda ash was 1203 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week [41][43]. Supply - Soda ash production increased month - on - month and is at a high level. With the upcoming commissioning of Alxa Phase II, production is expected to continue rising, which will have a strong bearish impact on the market. Last week, soda ash production was 776,900 tons (+31,200), including light soda ash production of 346,800 tons (+18,800) and heavy soda ash production of 430,100 tons (+12,400) [45][47]. Demand - The output of photovoltaic glass is gradually increasing, and the output of float glass increased month - on - month. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is strongly supported, and the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 250,055 tons (+600). Driven by pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, the apparent demand for soda ash increased month - on - month, reaching 881,000 tons (+93,400) last week [49][53]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventories decreased last week due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser, and inventory accumulation is inevitable. Regionally, North China's inventory decreased significantly, Northwest China's inventory decreased, and Southwest China's inventory remained unchanged [59][61][66]. Cost and Profit - Soda ash cost increased and profit declined last week. The cost support for heavy soda ash in East China using the combined - soda process is around 1310 [67][68]. Basis and Month Spread - As of September 26, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 90, flat from the previous week; the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 91, down 2 from the previous week. The basis is at a low level in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the poor supply - demand pattern of the spot market. Considering new capacity additions, the basis is expected to remain low, and the month spread is expected to decline further [70][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Medium to long - term: Trade conflicts have intensified, and market sentiment is weak. Most black commodities showed weak performance this week. For rebar, supply decreased while demand increased, but the fundamental improvement was not obvious, and the main contract was under pressure from the 5 - day moving average. Although the daily average hot metal output continued to decline, it remained above 2.4 million tons, providing support to the iron ore demand side, while the supply side tended to be loose, and industrial negative feedback intensified. For glass, the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fell short of expectations, the weak demand pattern was hard to change, the operating rate increased, and enterprise inventories accumulated, with the main contract dropping significantly on Friday. For soda ash, factory inventories accumulated, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the oversupply situation continued, and the main contract maintained a weak and volatile trend [63][67]. - Short - term: After the holiday, the recovery of the demand side fell short of expectations, the inventory reduction speed was slow, and the overall fundamental improvement was limited. The main contracts of the black series were mainly in a weak and volatile trend. This week, glass and soda ash continued to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side during the peak season and the policy signal orientation of subsequent important meetings [64][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3103.0 on October 10, 2025, to 3037.0 on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 66.0 or 2.1%. The spot price was 3200.0, and the basis (unconverted) was 163.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3285.0 to 3204.0, a decrease of 81.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 3270.0, and the basis was 66.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 795.0 to 771.0, a decrease of 24.0 or 3.0%. The spot price was 788.0, and the basis was 17.0 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1666.5 to 1676.0, an increase of 9.5 or 0.6%. The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 56.0 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1161.0 to 1179.0, an increase of 18.0 or 1.6%. The spot price was 1350.0, and the basis was 171.0 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1207.0 to 1095.0, a decrease of 112.0 or 9.3%. The spot price was 1270.0, and the basis was 175.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1240.0 to 1209.0, a decrease of 31.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 1271.3, and the basis was 62.3 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On October 16, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply side: As of October 17, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.27% (unchanged), the daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons (a decrease of 0.59), and the rebar output was 2011600 tons (a decrease of 22400) [12]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.1975 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 737400 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 101819 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the social inventory of rebar was 4.5641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108900 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8464 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77000 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply side: In the week of October 10, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71500 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 3.1441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 368300 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.96187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320000 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98273 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63460 tons [30]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 3293200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122200 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 120700 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was 1128925 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63% (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.35% (unchanged) [38]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 64.2756 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.4516 million weight boxes compared with October 10. The number of days of available in - plant inventory was 27.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 days [43]. - Demand side: As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740500 tons, a decrease of 30300 tons compared with the previous week [51]. - Factory inventory: As of October 17, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40700 tons [56]. - Production and sales rate: As of October 17, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 percentage points [60].

Group 1: Glass Market Price and Contract Information - From 2025/10/9 to 2025/10/16, the price of 5mm large glass plates in various regions decreased, e.g., the price of 5mm large plates from Shahe Anquan dropped from 1241.0 to 1181.0, a decrease of 60.0 [1]. - FG05 and FG01 contracts also declined, with FG05 dropping from 1338.0 to 1284.0 (a decrease of 54.0) and FG01 from 1218.0 to 1147.0 (a decrease of 71.0) [1]. Profit and Cost -华北燃煤利润 decreased from 302.3 to 244.6, a decrease of 57.7, while the cost increased from 891.7 to 906.4, an increase of 14.7 [1]. -华南天然气利润 remained at -188.1, and the North China natural gas profit decreased from -150.7 to -193.7, a decrease of 43.0 [1]. Spot and Sales - In Shahe, the factory sales were weak, with the low - price of traders around 1150, and the shipment improved slightly. In Hubei, the factory price was around 1110, and the factory transactions weakened [1]. - The glass sales rates were 40 in Shahe, 58 in Hubei, 92 in East China, and 83 in South China [1]. Group 2: Soda Ash Market Price and Contract Information - From 2025/10/9 to 2025/10/16, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1170.0 to 1160.0, a decrease of 10.0. The SA05 and SA01 contracts also changed, with SA05 dropping from 1344.0 to 1325.0 (a decrease of 19.0) and SA01 from 1250.0 to 1235.0 (a decrease of 15.0) [1]. Profit and Cost - The North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from -207.6 to -234.3, a decrease of 26.7, and the North China combined - soda profit decreased from -231.4 to -253.3, a decrease of 21.9 [1]. Spot and Inventory - The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1140, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1170 [1]. - The factory inventory of soda ash accumulated, and the delivery warehouses had a slight reduction in inventory [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up significantly due to the long holiday. The supply-demand pattern remains bearish, and it is advisable to continue the short-selling strategy during rebounds [1]. - Glass production and sales are sluggish, and the market price continues to be weak. The current trading reflects the logic of a disappointing peak season and fundamental oversupply. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [1]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase overseas, with raw material prices falling and weak cost support. The demand is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main producing areas [4]. Logs - There is no obvious driving force in the current log supply and demand. The near-month 11 contract has insufficient willingness of long positions to take delivery, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable, with supply pressure increasing and prices potentially under pressure. However, if the spot is firm, there is strong support below. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained stable or decreased slightly, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts falling by 1.02% and 0.59% respectively [1]. - Soda ash: The prices in North China, East China, and Central China remained stable, while the price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%. The 2505 and 2509 contracts fell by 0.15% and 0.38% respectively [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The weekly output was 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37% [1]. - Glass: The float glass daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16% [1]. Inventory - Glass: The factory inventory was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 3.74%, and the delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area: -0.09%, an increase of 0.09% [1]. - Construction area: 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43% [1]. - Completion area: -0.22%, a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - Sales area: -6.55%, a decrease of 6.50% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of most varieties increased slightly, with the basis of Yunnan state-owned whole milk rubber decreasing by 8.40% [4]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 50.00% [4]. Fundamental Data - Production: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, while China's production increased [4]. - Tire Production and Exports: The domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% [4]. - Import Volume: The import volume of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [4]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.68% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 contract of logs increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 6, and the arrival volume increased by 200,500 cubic meters [6]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume decreased by 83,000 cubic meters [6]. Inventory - As of October 10, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis decreased [7]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts showed different trends, with the 2510 - 2511 spread increasing by 400.00% [7]. Fundamental Data - Production: The national industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, with significant increases in Xinjiang and Yunnan [7]. -开工率: The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, with significant increases in Xinjiang [7]. Inventory Changes - The factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, and the social inventory increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of most varieties remained stable, and the basis of N - type silicon decreased by 31.70% [8]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract increased by 1.75%, and the spreads between different contracts showed different trends [8]. Fundamental Data - Production: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, while the monthly production of silicon wafers increased [8]. - Import and Export: The import volume of polysilicon decreased, and the export volume increased [8]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [8].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月16日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1220 | 1230 | -10 | -0.81% | | | 华东报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1267 | 1280 | -13 | -1.02% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1351 | 1359 | -8 | -0.59% | | | 05基左 | -47 | -20 | 3 | 6.00% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 流改 | 张跃帽 | 单位 | ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/9 2025/10/14 2025/10/15 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/9 2025/10/14 2025/10/15 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1170.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | -10.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1344.0 | 1321.0 | 1319.0 | -25.0 | -2.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1160.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1250.0 | 1234.0 | 1232.0 | -18.0 | -2.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1409.0 | 1389.0 | 1384.0 | -25.0 | -5.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction lies in the policy and cost - increase expectations for the far - month contracts, which cannot be falsified for now, while the near - term reality is mediocre with weak demand and poor high - frequency production and sales. The ability of the middle - stream to destock during the peak season needs to be observed [2] - The cost of glass and soda ash still has an upward expectation, affecting far - month pricing. Policy expectations cannot be completely ruled out, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded. However, the high inventories in the upstream and middle - stream of glass and soda ash, doubts about downstream acceptance, and potential production increases pose risks [2] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November, and the impact of the implementation time and production line shutdown needs further tracking. Glass production and sales are average, upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and 2 - 3 production lines may be ignited or restarted this month, with daily melting likely to rise slightly [3] - Glass upstream and middle - stream inventories are at a high level, and weak real - world demand restricts price increases. The industry is waiting for further clear policy instructions [3] - On October 15, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 1.02%, 0.59%, and 0.79% respectively [3] - The monthly price range prediction for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 30.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 81.0% [1] Soda Ash - Upstream soda ash plants have started to accumulate inventory, and the sustainability needs attention. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues [3] - The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, with inventory reduced to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash has stabilized, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus [3] - In August, soda ash exports exceeded 200,000 tons, better than expected, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent. High upstream and middle - stream inventories limit the price of soda ash, but the cost provides support at the bottom [3] - On October 15, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 0.15%, 0.36%, and 0.16% respectively [5] - The monthly price range prediction for soda ash is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.20% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Glass Summary Price and Spread - From Oct 9 to Oct 14, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions decreased, e.g., the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan dropped from 1241.0 to 1181.0, a weekly decrease of 60.0 and a daily decrease of 17.0 [2]. - FG01 and FG05 contract prices also declined during the same period, with FG01 dropping from 1218.0 to 1138.0 (weekly - 80.0, daily - 41.0) and FG05 from 1338.0 to 1280.0 (weekly - 58.0, daily - 33.0) [2]. - The FG 1 - 5 spread widened from - 120.0 to - 142.0, a weekly change of - 22.0 and a daily change of - 8.0 [2]. Profit and Basis - Profits of different production methods and regions varied. For example, North China coal - fired profit decreased from 302.3 to 265.1 (weekly - 37.2, daily - 7.0), and 01FG盘面 natural gas profit dropped from - 149.8 to - 226.4 (weekly - 76.6, daily - 38.3) [2]. - The 01 Hebei basis changed from - 24.0 to 26.0 (weekly 50.0, daily 32.0), and the 01 Hubei basis changed from - 68.0 to - 28.0 (weekly 40.0, daily 1.0) [2]. Production and Sales - Shahe factory glass production and sales were weak, but the sales of Shahe traders at low - price levels (around 1173) improved slightly. In Hubei, factory transactions weakened [2]. - The production - sales ratios were 43 in Shahe, 62 in Hubei, 95 in East China, and 86 in South China [2]. Soda Ash Summary Price and Spread - From Oct 9 to Oct 14, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1170.0 to 1180.0 (weekly - 10.0, daily - 20.0), while that in Central China increased from 1160.0 to 1190.0 (weekly 10.0, daily - 20.0) [2]. - SA01, SA05, and SA09 contract prices all declined, with SA01 dropping from 1250.0 to 1234.0 (weekly - 16.0, daily - 13.0), SA05 from 1344.0 to 1321.0 (weekly - 23.0, daily - 15.0), and SA09 from 1409.0 to 1389.0 (weekly - 20.0, daily - 17.0) [2]. - The SA01 - SA05 spread changed from - 94.0 to - 87.0, a weekly change of 7.0 and a daily change of 2.0 [2]. Profit and Basis - Profits of different production methods in North China decreased. North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from - 207.6 to - 220.9 (weekly - 13.4, daily - 23.8), and North China combined - soda profit decreased from - 231.4 to - 242.3 (weekly - 11.0, daily - 23.1) [2]. - The SA01 Shahe basis changed from - 80.0 to - 74.0 (weekly 6.0, daily - 7.0) [2]. Industry Situation - The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1140, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1170 [2]. - Factory inventories of soda ash were accumulating [2].