力勤资源(02245)午后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报24.16港元，成交额4538.99万港元。 力勤资源 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 24.82 1.98 8.67% 9.02% 6.00% 3.02% 0.00% 3.02% 6.00% 9.02% 20.78 21.47 22.15 22.84 23.53 24.21 24.90 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 9万 17万 26万 消息面上，力勤资源公布，公司已就建议A股发行向深交所提交包括A股招股说明书(申报稿)在内的申 请材料，并已于2025年12月31日收到深交所就公司建议A股发行的申请出具的受理通知书。据悉，力勤 资源目前已覆盖镍矿贸易、冶炼生产、设备制造和销售等完整产业链环节。 国盛证券（002670）发布研报称，印尼控制全球60%镍供应，其供应政策直接影响镍供需。镍作为有色 金属当中为数不多仍处于周期底部的品种，自然条件下距离出清尚有时日。但考虑其集中度可类比钨、 钴、锑等品种，供给主导国政策可显著影响商品价格。今年以来，印尼基于市场地位，陆续出台供应限 制政策，意在抬升价格水平、将 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Likin Resources (02245) has submitted application materials for a proposed A-share issuance to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, including the A-share prospectus, and has received an acceptance notice from the exchange as of December 31, 2025 [1] - Likin Resources has established a complete industrial chain covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, and equipment manufacturing and sales [1] - According to Guosheng Securities, Indonesia controls 60% of the global nickel supply, and its supply policies significantly impact nickel supply and demand [1] Group 2 - Nickel is one of the few non-ferrous metals still at the bottom of the cycle, and it is expected to take time to clear the market naturally [1] - Indonesia has implemented supply restriction policies this year to elevate price levels and retain more profits domestically, indicating a strong determination to stabilize prices [1] - The article expresses optimism about nickel prices accelerating their bottoming and recovery due to Indonesia's supply control policies [1]

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has seen a price increase of over 6%, with a monthly rise exceeding 30%, currently trading at 2.71 HKD and a transaction volume of 25.9145 million HKD [2] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported a significant reduction in the nickel production target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from the 2025 target of 379 million tons [2] - CICC indicated that the tightening of nickel ore quotas is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on the Indonesian economy, and the increase in nickel prices could enhance tax revenue and the value of local resources, suggesting a high probability of the quota policy being implemented [2] Group 2 - Guangzhou Futures noted that the Indonesian government is still discussing the quota plan internally, and previous announcements regarding nickel ore quotas have often been retracted, indicating that the impact of this news on nickel prices may be overestimated [2] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining owns several nickel-copper mines, including Karatungke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as vanadium mines at Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and a fluorite mine at Kalchaer [2]

价格走势趋势分析（以下数据来源长江有色金属网） 沪镍主力合约盘中涨超4%，最高触及135570元/吨，创3月下旬以来新高，为全年交易画上强势句号。 与此同时，电池级硫酸镍同步温和跟涨，中间价28050元/吨，在产业链复苏预期中稳步修复。这场岁末 狂欢的背后，是印尼减产政策的强力催化，更是全球镍市供需格局重构的序幕拉开，2026年镍价将迎来 怎样的变局？ 从冰点到沸点：政策"惊雷"与宏观暖风的共振 镍价在12月上演的"V型"深蹲起跳，是多重时空因素叠加的结果。前半月的阴跌，反映了市场在"美联 储降息"与"中国稳增长"等宏观利好兑现前的观望，以及对镍自身高库存、弱需求的现实担忧。真正的 转折点始于12月17日。这一天，发生了两件决定当月镍市命运的大事： 首先是宏观层面的"发令枪"：美联储如期降息，全球流动性宽松的闸门正式开启，叠加中国经济数据回 暖，为大宗商品提供了系统性向上的金融环境。 更具爆炸性的是产业层面的"核弹"：印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）释放信号，政府计划在2026年将镍矿生 产配额大幅削减约34%。这一消息在12月31日得到进一步强化，印尼能矿部释放了明确的政策收紧信 号。印尼供应着全球近半壁江山的镍 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel is expected to remain strong due to frequent positive policies from Indonesia, a long period of bottom - side oscillation, and attention from profit - seeking funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, despite a fundamental situation of high inventory and oversupply [2]. - Stainless steel prices are predicted to maintain an oscillating state, closely following the price trend of Shanghai nickel, with macro - level benefits being partially realized, continuous inventory reduction for four weeks, and weak downstream demand in the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 132,390 yuan/ton, up 3.86% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,000,602 (+215,362) lots, and the open interest was 149,624 (+1,821) lots. It showed a wide - range oscillating trend of opening low and moving high, accelerating the upward rush in the afternoon, and slightly falling back at the end. The intraday amplitude reached 7.0%, hitting a nine - month high. The price rebounded strongly under the continuous fermentation of the expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota cut, but there was significant divergence between bulls and bears due to policy uncertainty [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: Near the holiday, the nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited, and mines had a bullish expectation. Shipping efficiency was affected by increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron plants were eager to stock up in advance, which might slow down the price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore purchases. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price for January 2026 (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 37,798 (-712) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 (0) tons [1]. Strategy - The strategy is mainly based on range trading for single - side operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2602 opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 13,090 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 181,552 (+11,677) lots, and the open interest was 88,597 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend of opening low and moving high, with a relatively mild intraday fluctuation and an amplitude of about 2.1%, significantly smaller than that of Shanghai nickel. It rose driven by the strong rebound of Shanghai nickel, but its own weak fundamentals limited the increase, showing a pattern of "passive following + range oscillation" [2]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market trading enthusiasm increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods was average. After traders offered discounts, the transaction situation was relatively good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 60 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2][3]. Strategy - The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel futures market shows a macroeconomic easing expectation, with overnight London nickel rising by 6.47% to close at $16,780, an increase of $1,020 per ton [1] - Domestic nickel futures also experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai nickel main contract closing at 134,400 yuan per ton, up 4,720 yuan per ton, a 3.64% increase [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply expectations are heavily influenced by policy disruptions, particularly Indonesia's nickel ore production reduction and the taxation plan for associated cobalt, leading to strong supply contraction expectations [3] - The rainy season in the Philippines and domestic smelting reductions further exacerbate the tight supply expectations, despite high global visible inventories [3] Group 3: Demand Factors - Demand remains structurally rigid, with stainless steel production slowing and steel mills being cautious in restocking; the new energy sector shows steady demand but is sensitive to high prices, resulting in a market characterized by "high prices with limited transactions" [4] Group 4: Industry Chain Insights - Profit margins are concentrating upstream due to strong bargaining power and stable profits in the resource sector, while the smelting segment faces pressure from "high costs" and "weak demand" [5] - Downstream stainless steel and battery companies are highly sensitive to raw material prices, leading to a restructuring of profit distribution within the industry chain [5] Group 5: Price Outlook - Short-term nickel prices are expected to oscillate between "tightening policy expectations" and "high inventory with weak demand realities," with a forecast of maintaining a strong oscillating trend [6] - Future attention will be on Indonesian policy details, downstream restocking pace, and the recovery progress of new energy demand [6]

Group 1: Hot News - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds for consumer goods trade - in. New subsidy objects include smart products, and home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. Car purchase subsidies remain at 2025 caps, and home appliance subsidy scope and rates are reduced [2] - From 2026, the VAT levy rate for individuals selling homes bought less than 2 years ago drops to 3%, and those bought 2 or more years ago are exempt. This will boost second - hand housing trading activity but increase supply [2] - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to balance supply and demand, controlling nearly 70% of global nickel output [2] - In December 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value drops 55 yuan/ton, a 3.6% decline [3] - Last week, domestic oil mills had high operating rates, and soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate. During the New Year's Day holiday, soybean crushing is expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons, but inventory may remain high at around 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, Shanghai silver, PVC, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance shows different percentage changes for various commodity futures sectors, with precious metals at 32.77%, non - metallic building materials at 2.20%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 0.00% daily change, 1.97% monthly change, and 18.30% annual change [6] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, etc. [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the Shanghai nickel price rose significantly again, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 134,480 yuan/ton and closing at 132,390 yuan/ton, a increase of 3.86%. The total position increased by 18,000 lots to 346,000 lots. Driven by the news of the reduction of the Indonesian RKAB quota, the speculation sentiment of funds is still rising, and the fluctuation range of nickel prices has increased [7]. - Driven by the sharp rise in nickel prices, the prices of other products in the industrial chain are also rising. The NPI quotation increased by 2.5 to 914.5 yuan/nickel point on the 30th, which is regarded as a short - term rebound. The nickel salt price increased by 20 to 27,575 yuan/ton, and the short - term price will continue to rise [7]. - Affected by a series of news speculations such as the reduction of the Indonesian RKAB quota and the revision of the nickel reference price HPM, combined with the amplification of macro and precious metal fluctuations, the speculation sentiment of long - position funds in the nickel market remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to rise before the quota is finalized. It is recommended to wait and see and participate cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 30th, the Shanghai nickel price rose sharply, and the speculation sentiment of funds was heating up. The prices of NPI and nickel salt in the industrial chain also increased. The NPI price increase is regarded as a short - term rebound, and the nickel salt price will continue to rise in the short term [7]. - Affected by news speculations and market fluctuations, the long - position funds' speculation sentiment in the nickel market remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will have upward elasticity before the quota is finalized. It is recommended to wait and see and participate cautiously [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - From January to November, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The export of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [8] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in the 2026 RKAB to about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons in 2025. The final implementation method is still unclear [10]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement new position limit rules from July next year, covering key contracts such as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc futures, as well as related options and trading settlement contracts [10]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支撑 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 | 6 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，关注行情波动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月31日 2025 年 12 月 31 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 132,390 | 6,680 | 8,950 | 20,100 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 30% in the month and currently trading at 2.71 HKD, with a trading volume of 25.91 million HKD [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and the Karachar fluorite mine [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported that the government's nickel production target for the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is approximately 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set for 2025 [1] - CICC indicated that the tightening of nickel mining quotas will have a minimal impact on the Indonesian economy, and rising nickel prices will enhance tax revenue and increase the value of local resources, suggesting a high probability of the quota policy being implemented [1] - Guangzhou Futures noted that the Indonesian government is still discussing the quota plan internally, and past instances of similar quota policy news being disproven suggest that the impact on nickel prices may be overestimated [1]