2025.12.26 本文字数：2214，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 本周西方迎来传统节日圣诞节，随着诸多市场进入假日交易时段，通常情况下行情往往处于低波动状 态。今年的情况有所不同。 节后首个交易日，避险情绪、供需失衡等因素继续推动资产规模较小的贵金属市场狂欢。相比之下，人 工智能AI泡沫担忧、货币政策不明朗让流动性更好的明星科技股失去了短期进一步上行的动力。 美股波澜不惊 作为节前公布的重磅数据，美国三季度国内市场总值（GDP）表现强劲，但美债利率却未出现相应上 扬，美国10年期国债收益率徘徊在4.17%，10年期与2年期国债利差保持31个基点的正值区间。 BK asset management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，这向市 场释放的信号是：当前货币政策虽处于限制性区间，但并不会进一步收紧，是美元走弱、股市企稳的核 心逻辑。他认为，短期内股市表现近似于 "低波动套息资产"——标普500指数与纳斯达克综合指数保持 强势，市场波动性整体受到压制，如恐慌指数（VIX ）徘徊在年内低点附近。 这与市场对权重人工智能领域的担忧情绪不无关系 ...

贵金属再次全面爆发。 周五黄金、白银和铂金均创历史新高, 沪铜史上首次突破10万元人民币关口, 纽铜超越了今年7月史无前例的逼空行情期间所创盘中最高纪录。 黄金现货大涨逾1%，盘中刷新历史高点至4550美元上方，现货白银站上79美元关口，COMEX铜期货涨5.01%。夜盘期货同样强势，沪银夜盘涨超 6%，首次收于19000元关口上方。 （金银铜铂金飙升） 铂族金属同样表现惊人。现货铂金大涨10%至每盎司2459.5美元，创历史新高，全年涨幅超170%，是自1990年有伦敦基准价以来最大年度涨幅；钯金 也涨逾11%至每盎司1925美元，全年涨幅已超111%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2459.50 | 231.50 | 10.39% | 172.07% | | 现货锂金(美元/盎司) | 1925.00 | 201.50 | 11.69% | 111.89% | | NYMEX铂 | 2513.9d | 266.1 | 11.84% | 176.13% | | NYMEX铝 | 2 ...

相比之下，美股波动性跌至年内低位。 节后首个交易日，避险情绪、供需失衡等因素继续推动资产规模较小的贵金属市场狂欢。相比之下，人工智能AI泡沫 担忧、货币政策不明朗让流动性更好的明星科技股失去了短期进一步上行的动力。 美股波澜不惊 作为节前公布的重磅数据，美国三季度国内市场总值（GDP）表现强劲，但美债利率却未出现相应上扬，美国10年期 国债收益率徘徊在4.17%，10年期与2年期国债利差保持31个基点的正值区间。 BK asset management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，这向市场释放的信号 是：当前货币政策虽处于限制性区间，但并不会进一步收紧，是美元走弱、股市企稳的核心逻辑。他认为，短期内股 市表现近似于 "低波动套息资产"——标普500指数与纳斯达克综合指数保持强势，市场波动性整体受到压制，如恐慌 指数（VIX ）徘徊在年内低点附近。 这与市场对权重人工智能领域的担忧情绪不无关系——过度投资与成本收益失衡。仅OpenAI 一家就计划未来数年投 入1.4万亿美元。科技巨头同样如此，这种 "烧钱换增长"的模式高度依赖外部资金，一旦融资断档便会引发连 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Silver, platinum, and palladium prices surged over 10% recently, with COMEX silver futures rising by 11.15% and spot silver increasing by 10.24%, reaching new historical highs [1][4] - NYMEX platinum rose by 11.84%, also achieving a historical high, while NYMEX palladium increased by 14.04% [1][8][6] - COMEX gold futures and spot gold prices rose by 1.31% and 1.12% respectively, marking new historical highs as well [1][4] Group 2: Market Trends and Influences - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and low market liquidity [10] - The U.S. has imposed sanctions affecting oil tankers in Venezuela, contributing to market instability [10] - The trend is further supported by a shift in investor behavior, with concerns over rising national debt leading to increased demand for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [10] Group 3: M&A Activity - Global M&A activity reached $4.5 trillion in 2025, a nearly 50% increase from 2024, marking the second-highest level in over 40 years [2] - The year saw 68 transactions exceeding $10 billion, spanning various sectors, driven by favorable market conditions and a relatively lenient regulatory environment in the U.S. [2] - The largest transactions included competitive bids for Warner Bros. Discovery and a major merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, creating a $250 billion railroad giant [2]

国际金银续创新高。COMEX黄金期货收涨1.31%，报4562美元/盎司，本周累计上涨3.98%；现货黄金涨1.12%，报4531.1美元/盎司，本周累计上涨 4.44%。 COMEX白银期货收涨11.15%，本周累计上涨18.06%；现货白银涨10.24%，本周累计上涨17.87%。 隔夜美股盘中下跌，中概股走强。黄金拉升。 截至12月26日收盘，美股三大指数均微跌，纳指跌0.09%，道指跌0.04%，标普500指数跌0.03%。纳指本周累计上涨1.22%；道指本周累计上涨1.2%；标普 500指数本周累计上涨1.4%。 个股方面，特斯拉跌超2%，谷歌、苹果、微软等小幅下跌；英伟达涨超1%。消息面上，英伟达确认与AI芯片初创公司Groq达成技术授权协议，还从Groq 公司招揽了工程人才。 中概股盘中拉升，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.72%。小鹏汽车涨超6%，蔚来涨近4%，阿里巴巴、百度涨超1%；霸王茶姬跌逾2%。 国际原油期货价格下挫，WTI原油期货结算价收跌2.76%，报56.74美元/桶；布伦特原油期货结算价收跌2.57%，报60.64美元/桶。 ...

Market Performance - US stocks showed little change on Friday but achieved weekly gains ahead of the final trading week of the year [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly below its record close from Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dipped below the flat line during thin post-Christmas trading [1] - All three major indexes recorded gains of over 1% during the shortened holiday trading week [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, experienced a significant rally, reaching new records due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar [2] Year-End Trends - The S&P 500 and Dow reached record highs during the Christmas Eve session, marking their fifth consecutive victory as Wall Street entered the Santa Claus rally period [3] - The S&P 500 is up nearly 18% year-to-date, on track for its sixth year of over 15% gains in the last seven years [4] - The Nasdaq has outperformed with over a 20% rise in 2025, despite a brief bear market following tariff impositions by President Trump [4] Interest Rate Expectations - Stocks have continued to rise despite diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, with traders estimating less than 15% odds of a cut next month [5] - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's actions in March, with no major economic data or earnings results expected to conclude the holiday-shortened week [5]

Core Insights - Investors and traders who maintained their positions in precious metals throughout the year have seen positive returns following a significant pullback in early April [1] Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced a sharp decline in early April, which tested the patience of investors [1] - Those who held onto their investments during this downturn have been rewarded as the market has rebounded [1]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - The market is divided into three camps: bullish, bearish, and a rational third party that observes without emotional involvement [1] - Investment decisions should be based on logical reasoning and understanding of market dynamics rather than solely on market sentiment [2][4] - Caution is advised when investing during high market sentiment, as it may lead to unwise decisions without a clear understanding of risks [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold is viewed as a financial asset with low industrial utility, primarily serving as a measure of value during times of chaos [5][10] - Silver and platinum are considered secondary to gold, with their value largely dependent on gold's performance [10][11] - The perception of silver as a precious metal is challenged by its abundance and the fact that it is often a byproduct of other metal mining [13] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - Copper is abundant with global reserves of nearly 1 billion tons, primarily used in electrical applications [14] - The price of copper is influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with a consistent annual supply gap of approximately 200,000 tons [17] - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to the growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies, although there are ongoing efforts to find alternatives like aluminum [17][18] Group 4: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The stability of copper-producing countries significantly impacts copper prices, as geopolitical issues can disrupt supply [15][18] - Predictions for gold prices suggest potential significant increases, reflecting the uncertainty in global economic conditions [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals, with gold, silver, and copper reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of global liquidity expectations and supply-demand tensions [3][4]. Price Movements - As of December 26, 2025, the spot prices for gold and silver reached $4531.284 per ounce and $75.649 per ounce, respectively. In the domestic futures market, Shanghai gold and silver also hit historical highs, with Shanghai silver rising by 6.60% to close at 18319 yuan per kilogram, and Shanghai gold reaching a peak of 1023.96 yuan per gram before closing at 1016.30 yuan per gram, a 0.75% increase [3]. - Copper prices also set new records, with LME copper hitting $12282 per ton and Shanghai copper futures rising by 3.6% to reach 99730 yuan per ton before a slight pullback [3]. Market Analysis - The current market dynamics reflect a confluence of factors including expectations of global liquidity easing, structural supply-demand tensions in strategic resources, and speculative trading behaviors. Analysts caution that prices have significantly diverged from fundamentals, indicating a high level of speculative sentiment that could lead to volatility [3][4]. - Analysts from various firms note that while long-term bullish factors like "de-dollarization" exist, the rapid short-term price increases may have over-traded these factors, raising potential risks for market stability [4]. Supply Chain Insights - The supply side for copper has been impacted by unexpected production issues at major overseas mines, leading to downward revisions in global copper supply expectations since September. Additionally, U.S. tariffs on copper are drawing refined copper towards the U.S., tightening supply in other markets and fueling bullish sentiment [4]. Regulatory Measures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented risk management measures in response to the volatile market conditions, including adjustments to trading limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures to enhance market resilience and prevent extreme fluctuations [5]. - These measures aim to guide investors towards rational participation in the market, especially during the sensitive year-end period when liquidity may change abruptly [5]. Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend a dual approach for investors: maintaining a strategic bullish outlook while avoiding chasing prices too high. Focus should be on accumulating positions during pullbacks for core assets like gold and copper, while being cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing slight declines post-Christmas, but major indices are expected to achieve weekly gains, with the S&P 500 index up 1.4% this week, potentially marking its fourth weekly increase in five weeks [3][4][8]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 37.49 points (0.08%) to 48,693.67 points, the Nasdaq dropped by 39.94 points (0.17%) to 23,573.36 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 4.25 points (0.06%) to 6,927.80 points [3][8]. - Precious metals continue to rise, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs due to worsening geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar [3][4][8]. Seasonal Trends - Investors are currently in a historically strong seasonal window, anticipating a "Santa Claus rally," which typically occurs in the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.3% increase during this period [3][4][8]. Future Predictions - Wall Street anticipates that the AI boom and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will support continued gains in the S&P 500, although inflation, high valuations, and geopolitical tensions may pose risks for market corrections [4][9]. - Ed Yardeni, a prominent market commentator, predicts the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 points by 2026 and 10,000 points by 2029, while also forecasting gold prices could hit $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade [5][10].