Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "involution" competition in recent years is not merely due to the short-sightedness of companies and employees, but is deeply rooted in macroeconomic backgrounds influenced by economic cycles, institutional issues, and technological development patterns [1][27]. Group 1: Industry Responses to Involution - The automotive industry has been notably active, with a significant "60-day account period revolution" and calls from the National Federation of Industry and Commerce for manufacturers to shorten rebate periods and simplify policies [3][4]. - The pig farming sector is also responding, with major companies being urged to reduce production capacity and stabilize prices, controlling the weight of pigs for market [5]. - The photovoltaic industry is proactively reducing production, with leading glass manufacturers planning a collective 30% cut in output [6]. - The cement industry is undergoing self-examination, with the China Cement Association requiring members to align actual production with registered capacity [7]. Group 2: Historical Context of Capacity Reduction - Historical capacity reduction efforts have typically focused on high-pollution and high-energy-consuming traditional industries, employing methods such as limiting new capacity and eliminating outdated production [16][20]. - The current round of capacity reduction is characterized by a broader scope, including emerging industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, indicating a shift from traditional sectors [21][22]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The low demand in the domestic market and uncertainties in foreign demand are contributing to the "involution" competition, exacerbated by supply-demand mismatches in certain industries [28]. - Local governments' performance evaluation mechanisms lead to "race-to-the-bottom" competition, distorting industry entry costs and slowing down market adjustments [29]. - Technological advancements often result in structural overcapacity, particularly in emerging industries, as companies invest heavily to adapt to rapid changes [30]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - To address "involution" competition, authorities should enhance counter-cyclical adjustments to boost domestic demand and reform the income distribution structure to improve labor compensation [34][36]. - Encouraging differentiated competition among enterprises and establishing industry standards can help mitigate excessive competition [38]. - A tailored approach to supply-side guidance based on industry-specific technological development patterns is necessary to support innovation [39]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors should be aware of the typical patterns of capacity reduction, as stock prices in affected industries may initially drop but can rebound significantly post-adjustment [57]. - Emerging industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, despite current bubbles, present substantial arbitrage opportunities [58].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "anti-involution" policies to curb low-price competition and promote product quality improvement across various industries, including photovoltaic, steel, cement, and pig farming [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Emphasis - The Central Financial Committee highlighted the need for legal governance of low-price disorderly competition and guiding enterprises to enhance product quality while promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1][5]. Industry Response - Major photovoltaic glass companies announced a collective production cut of 30% starting July to alleviate "involution-style" competition [3]. - The China Steel Association called for self-discipline to prevent "involution-style" vicious competition [4]. Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a "anti-involution" thematic rally, with sectors like steel, engineering machinery, photovoltaic, and glass experiencing significant growth [6]. - The expectation is that the "anti-involution" theme will continue to evolve across various industries, becoming a main focus in the near future [6]. Historical Context - The term "involution" has gained prominence in recent years, originally describing a situation where increased labor does not lead to significant productivity gains [9][10]. - Since last year, policy attention has increased regarding "anti-involution" and capacity reduction, with multiple meetings outlining strategies to combat this issue [11]. Key Industries Targeted - The "anti-involution" policies are particularly focused on four key industries: photovoltaic, e-commerce, automotive, and steel, employing various measures such as industry regulation and capacity adjustments [14]. Economic Indicators - Domestic prices have remained low, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing 32 months of negative growth as of May 2025, indicating a need to address the current deflationary pressures [13]. - The ongoing competition for investment among regions has also contributed to "involution-style" competition in certain sectors [13]. Future Outlook - The current round of "anti-involution" is reminiscent of the supply-side reform period (2015-2018), with expectations for key industries to enter a bullish market phase [16]. - However, the current market environment differs significantly from the previous supply-side reforms, as demand stabilization has not yet been observed, particularly in real estate, which may affect commodity prices [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term, leading to a strong price fluctuation. The main contract of live pig futures rose 2.14% this week. However, in the medium - term, there is still supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, and the key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of second - fattening. If the slaughter rhythm recovers later, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the upside space of prices. The recommended strategy is range trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, with the main contract rising 2.14% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply is tight due to the scale farms' price - holding and reduced slaughter at the beginning of the month, and the farmers' reluctance to sell. The average slaughter weight has decreased. As the price difference between fat and standard pigs narrows and the price of live pigs rises, the slaughter rhythm is expected to recover. In the medium - term, there is supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, with high temperatures suppressing people's willingness to buy pork, slow terminal sales, and a decline in the slaughterhouse's operating rate, although it is higher than last year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract rising 2.14% [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 1168 lots to 10564 lots compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 450, a decrease of 300 compared with last week [16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the July contract of live pigs was 1350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the September contract was 895 yuan/ton [20]. - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average price of live pigs in the national market this week was 14.55 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last week and 2.03% compared with last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week and a decrease of 10.78% compared with last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of June 26, the national market price of pork was 25.20 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 11, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, a decrease of 0.17 compared with the previous week, and it was lower than the break - even point [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of May was 40420000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 40000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms in May increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the first quarter, the inventory of live pigs increased year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 2.38% month - on - month and increased by 12.35% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.48% month - on - month and increased by 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of externally -三元 live pigs this week was 123.52 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg compared with last week [47]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit and Other Aspects - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 26.26 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 105.45 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.58 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.17 yuan/head compared with last week [52]. - **Pork Import**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%, at a historically low level [53][57]. - **Substitute and Feed**: As of July 4, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of June 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of July 4, the spot price of soybean meal was 2916.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.43 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 3, the price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 4, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index decreased by 0.77% compared with last week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of May 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2762100 tons, an increase of 98100 tons compared with the previous month [61][66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month [77]. 3.3.3. Downstream - **Slaughter and Demand**: In the 27th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 26.50%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points compared with last week and 10.32 percentage points higher than last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 14.46%, a decrease of 2.95% compared with last week. As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, an increase of 4.52% compared with last month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [80][85]. 3.4. Live Pig Stocks - The report mentioned the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data was provided [86].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 04 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，3 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最 高 14420 元/吨，最低 142500 元/吨，收盘报 143 ...

Group 1 - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has recorded five consecutive days of gains, with a net inflow of 7.34 million in funds, indicating a strong attraction to the sector [2] - The revival of the pig sector is attributed to two main reasons: the implementation of anti-competitive policies and seasonal demand [4][5] - Recent government actions, including a reduction in production capacity and the first significant domestic frozen pork storage this year, have boosted market sentiment [4] Group 2 - Seasonal demand is increasing as the market anticipates price hikes for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, leading to speculative investments [5] - Since February, pig prices have been fluctuating downwards, but supply has tightened since June due to government policies, resulting in a price increase of 8.5% from 14.06 yuan per kilogram to 15.25 yuan per kilogram [7] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, are favored by investors due to their strong cost control and high output realization [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Dekang Agriculture (02419) for 2025/26, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.5 and 6.7 for those years. The target price is raised by 68% to HKD 111, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price, supported by the company's continued growth and improved trading liquidity [1] Group 1 - The company adopts a "company + farmer" light asset development model, with the second farm's sow breeding model achieving the lowest costs within the system. The current operational model distribution is 20% self-operated, 60% first farm, and 20% second farm, with the average annual income for contracted farmers reaching RMB 770,000, a historical high for the company [2] - The second farm model has lower breeding costs compared to the first farm and self-operated models, enhancing operational efficiency and farmer engagement [2] Group 2 - The company continues to reduce costs, maintaining its position as an industry leader. The monthly total cost is reported to be below RMB 12.5 per kilogram, attributed to a focused breeding strategy in the Southwest region, technological empowerment, and efficient management practices [3] - The company expects to achieve a pig output of 11 million and 15 million heads in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with long-term potential exceeding 30 million heads [3] Group 3 - Liquidity has improved significantly, with an average turnover rate of 1.9% since the release of the 2024 annual report, and average daily trading volume increasing to RMB 140 million from RMB 3.69 million year-on-year. The proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect has also risen [4] - The valuation of the company is expected to increase, with a calculated average market value of RMB 2,528 per head, indicating a 22% potential increase compared to industry leaders [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture (02419) is gaining positive attention from multiple securities firms due to its technology-driven and innovative platform strategy, with target prices ranging from 96 to 170 HKD, indicating strong growth potential in the pig farming industry [1][6]. Group 1: Company Strengths - Dekang has a significant competitive edge in profitability, technology, and food safety standards, leading the industry in these aspects [1]. - The company has a unique "platform + ecosystem" strategy that allows it to transition from a production-oriented to a service-oriented business model, potentially increasing its revenue through service fees [2]. - Dekang's breeding, corporate culture, and farming model create three competitive moats, with its farming costs being among the lowest in the industry [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - The current valuation of Dekang is relatively low, with a 2025 PE ratio of approximately 7.6x, significantly below the industry average of 15.4x, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing consolidation in the pig farming industry, which will likely enhance its market share due to its competitive advantages and financial strength [6]. - Dekang's "company + family farm" model aligns with national rural revitalization strategies, indicating further growth opportunities in serving farm owners [6]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Dekang is expected to maintain steady growth in the number of pigs and yellow feathered chickens it services, supported by its comprehensive industry chain from feed production to sales [7]. - The company is also advancing its slaughtering and food processing projects, which are anticipated to open new avenues for growth [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involutionary" competition in the agricultural sector, suggesting that high-quality, low-cost leading companies may benefit from this shift [3] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and the integration of agricultural resources to create a sustainable ecosystem that empowers farmers and drives continuous innovation [6][7] - The report anticipates that the pig farming market, valued at trillions, will see opportunities for technology-driven enterprises that can navigate the challenges of the industry [6] Summary by Sections Production Capacity - As of May, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on stabilizing pig prices and controlling production capacity among leading enterprises [5] Market Performance - The price of live pigs reached a new high of 15.08 yuan/kg on July 1, attributed to a reduction in supply and the release of previous weight reduction pressures [7] - The white-feathered chicken market is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," but overall industry growth is expected to continue [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the seed industry, particularly those with advanced research capabilities, are likely to see sustained performance growth [11] - The pet economy is highlighted as having strong consumer resilience and significant growth potential, with a favorable market structure [10] Industry Trends - The report notes that the agricultural industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes biotechnology, smart equipment, and low-carbon agriculture as key areas for future development [7] - The feed industry is characterized as a service-oriented sector with opportunities and risks, requiring companies to balance scale and flexibility [9]

"反内卷式竞争"的投资机会 20250702 摘要 反内卷政策升级，人民日报等媒体密集发文，预示行业协会将密集发文 控价控产能，主要集中在新能源车和光伏行业，可能引发市场预期波动， 影响相关公司股价和大宗商品价格。 大宗商品价格下跌源于需求侧居民收入和地产下滑。传统行业经过前期 去产能和企业整合，供给侧大幅出清空间有限，本轮周期股反弹更多源 于市场内生需求，而非供给侧改革。 新能源车和光伏领域是反内卷政策重点，政府鼓励民营企业信心。未来 或通过控制价格实现红利，但难以复制 2015-2016 年供给侧改革驱动 的大宗商品牛市。 钢铁行业：限产政策短期影响有限，但制造业需求超预期增长，成本端 双胶价格下跌提升钢厂利润。关注电炉减产及低位库存对钢铁价格和利 润的推动作用，预计 7-8 月钢铁股将有一波反弹行情。 水泥行业：协会推动供给侧改革，要求企业严格按照设计产能生产，有 望提升标的配置性价比。今年企业具备底线思维，避免激烈价格战，确 保行业微盈利，但需求淡季和错峰执行力度不足构成不利因素。 Q&A 如何理解中央财经委关于建设全国统一大市场的政策？ 中央财经委近期强调建设全国统一大市场，旨在依法依规治理企业低价 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high while experiencing the largest net sell-off by clients in 10 weeks, primarily driven by institutional clients and hedge funds [1] - The sectors most affected by the sell-off were industrials and real estate, which have seen outflows for four consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - UBS lowered its 10-year U.S. Treasury yield forecast from 4.20% to 4.10% due to a weakening employment outlook, with a stop-loss level set at 4.40% [2] - The latest yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury was reported at 4.199%, having previously reached a two-month low of 4.191% [2] Group 3 - The term premium for bonds has increased globally, with a notable rise of over 40 basis points in Japan's 10-year government bonds since early last year [3] - In the U.S. bond market, the term premium has surged due to heightened concerns over fiscal policy and a lack of clarity in government economic policies [3] Group 4 - Eurozone inflation pressure is easing despite a slight increase in the inflation rate to 2.0% in June, attributed to slowing wage growth and a weak economy [4] - The inflation rate is expected to remain stable, with potential risks from oil price fluctuations and trade negotiations [4] Group 5 - German bank analysts predict that Eurozone inflation may decline again in the coming months, primarily driven by falling oil prices [5] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause its actions due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [5] Group 6 - The European Central Bank faces a delicate balance regarding future rate cuts, as inflation remains stable but core inflation is slightly elevated [6] - Predictions indicate that inflation may stay below 2% for most of the next two years, suggesting a victory in the anti-inflation battle [6] Group 7 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a macro environment characterized by "funding boom + asset scarcity," leading to index fluctuations and active structural trends [7] - Investors are advised to reduce positions in the short term while preparing for future opportunities, particularly in stable dividend-paying stocks [7] Group 8 - The internationalization of the Renminbi is deepening, with significant potential for growth in financial asset investments and official reserve assets [8] - Future strategies may include expanding bilateral currency swap agreements and exploring new payment methods through digital currencies [8] Group 9 - The telecommunications sector is expected to see improved performance driven by AI demand, particularly in North America, with significant growth anticipated for leading companies [9] - The domestic demand for computing power is also improving, benefiting local leaders in optical modules and switches [9] Group 10 - The Chinese government has introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which is expected to enhance the sector's growth [10] - The focus on innovation and internationalization is seen as a key strategy for the pharmaceutical industry moving forward [10] Group 11 - The soft drink industry is entering a peak season, with strong demand and resilience in sales despite pricing pressures [11] - Companies are expected to ramp up promotional activities and product launches as they approach the critical operating period [11] Group 12 - The pig farming industry is projected to maintain profitability in the second half of the year, with a slight increase in the number of pigs being marketed [12] - The average price of pigs is expected to range between 14-16 yuan per kilogram in the latter half of 2025 [12] Group 13 - The electronic sector is anticipated to continue its high growth trajectory, particularly in AI-related applications and domestic manufacturing advancements [13] - AI glasses are expected to reach a turning point in the second half of the year, driven by price reductions and increased demand [13] Group 14 - The media industry is poised for structural growth opportunities supported by policy, technological advancements, and product cycles [14] - Key areas of focus include the gaming sector, AI applications, and the rapid development of IP derivative markets [14] Group 15 - The solid-state battery industry is entering a phase of accelerated development, with applications expanding beyond automotive to include robotics and low-altitude vehicles [15] - The industry is expected to see significant advancements in performance and commercialization [15] Group 16 - The A-share market is still some distance from a bull market, with weak macroeconomic expectations and a lack of strong catalysts for structural improvement [16] - The market is characterized by a split in investor sentiment, with active trading but cautious long-term outlooks [16]