Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Beixin Building Materials, Pona, and China Jushi, while recommending "Hold" for Weixing New Materials [8]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to experience a "not-so-weak" off-season despite the traditional seasonal downturn, with a slight increase in demand for certain materials [1][2]. - Government debt issuance has increased, which may alleviate fiscal pressure and accelerate municipal engineering projects, benefiting companies like Longquan Co., Qinglong Pipe Industry, and China Liansu [2]. - The glass market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a marginal improvement in demand since March 2025, but overall demand is expected to decline post-2025 [2][3]. - The cement industry is still in a demand bottoming process, with companies increasing production cuts to stabilize prices [2][15]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of recovery, particularly in wind power applications, while electronic fiberglass demand remains strong [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - From June 3 to June 6, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) rose by 0.63%, with cement up 0.38%, glass manufacturing up 1.01%, fiberglass up 2.07%, and renovation materials up 0.24% [1][11]. - The net capital inflow for the construction materials sector was -159 million yuan during this period [1]. 2. Cement Industry Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the national cement price index was 358.88 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 3.157 million tons, a decrease of 9.81% [15]. - The cement market is characterized by weak demand in infrastructure and residential construction, with a utilization rate of 61.01% for cement clinker production [15][27]. 3. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass was 1250.27 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous week, with inventory levels increasing significantly [3][32]. - The demand for glass is expected to remain weak in June, with prices likely to fluctuate downward [3][34]. 4. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with demand from wind power applications supporting growth [2][7]. - The price of non-alkali fiberglass is expected to stabilize, while electronic fiberglass prices remain steady [6][7]. 5. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market is stable, with production rates at 60.69% and a slight increase in inventory levels [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber is anticipated to grow, particularly in wind energy and hydrogen storage applications [7]. 6. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials recommended for investment [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The building materials industry is expected to recover in 2025, driven by government policies and market demand [7][58] - The cement market is currently facing weak demand and declining prices, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [15][18] - The retail market for consumer building materials is showing signs of recovery, with increased sales expected due to policy support [44] - The glass fiber sector is experiencing price declines in raw yarn but stable prices in electronic yarn, with a focus on high-end products [48][49] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Outlook - The building materials industry plays a crucial role in supporting various sectors, including infrastructure and defense [7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes green and low-carbon development, with significant goals set for 2025 [8][10] - The building materials industry index rose to 102.8 in May, indicating a recovery trend [11] 2. Market Demand and Price Trends - Cement demand has declined in May due to weak real estate activity, with prices expected to continue falling until August [15][18] - The float glass market is under pressure with declining prices and high inventory levels, indicating weak demand [31][33] - Consumer building materials retail sales increased by 2.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, with a significant jump in April [38][44] 3. Policy Impact - Government policies are expected to boost the valuation recovery of the building materials sector, with a focus on infrastructure investment [52][58] - The building materials sector's valuation is currently at a historical low, suggesting potential for growth [58] 4. Financial Performance - In 2024, the building materials sector faced significant profit declines, but Q1 2025 showed a notable recovery in profits [66][67] - The overall revenue for the sector in Q1 2025 was 1355.98 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 2.39% but a significant profit recovery [67]

Group 1: Market Trends and Performance - The construction and building materials indices have shown a W-shaped fluctuation in 2025, with the building materials sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.5 percentage points[12] - As of May 30, 2025, the CI building materials index has increased by 0.05% compared to the end of 2024, while the CI construction index has decreased by 3.3%[12] - The construction sector's operating cash flow has improved significantly, with a net cash inflow of CNY 1,668 billion in 24Q4 and 25Q1, an increase of CNY 1,534 billion year-on-year[38] Group 2: Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The demand for renovation and urban renewal is expected to support the building materials sector, with an estimated 1.1 to 1.2 million units of renovation demand per year from 2024 to 2026, growing at a CAGR of 5%[4] - Key recommendations for investment include China State Construction, China National Materials, and China Nuclear Engineering, with target prices set at CNY 8.60, CNY 13.04, and CNY 10.81 respectively[10] - The cement industry is projected to see a 6% year-on-year decline in demand, while the glass fiber and carbon fiber sectors are expected to maintain high demand due to emerging industries[5] Group 3: Corporate Strategies and Transformations - Many small and medium-sized construction enterprises are actively seeking cross-industry transformations, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy[45] - The "6+4+2" trillion yuan debt restructuring plan has led to a total of CNY 3.38 trillion in debt replacement funds in 2024, benefiting smaller construction firms more significantly[37] - The construction industry is entering a phase of deep integration, with state-owned enterprises likely to increase their market share as private firms exit the market[43]

Macro - The global economic system is undergoing reconstruction due to changes in the trust foundation, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" primarily driven by non-economic factors, particularly international relations [2] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to be historical and significant, as the trend of declining trust among countries is unlikely to change [2] - In the short to medium term, attention should be paid to the potential decline in dollar credit and the risks of rising real interest rates and inflation expectations in the US [2][3] Strategy - The "transformation bull" market in China's stock market is becoming clearer, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [6] - Key drivers include the decline in risk-free rates and a systemic reduction in risk perception, which will help restore investor confidence [6] - Investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as financials, emerging technologies, and cyclical consumption, with specific recommendations for stocks in these areas [7][8] Overseas Strategy - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to lead the market, driven by the AI industry cycle [11] - The fundamentals of Hong Kong's tech sector are improving, with strong growth in capital expenditure and cloud business revenues [12] - Despite uncertainties in the trade environment, domestic policy support is expected to drive fundamental recovery in the Hong Kong market [13] Fixed Income - The bond market is expected to experience a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for convertible bonds [34] - Strategies focusing on short-term interest rates are recommended, with an emphasis on maintaining duration without chasing long-term bonds [29] Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with improving supply-demand dynamics in key cities and a narrowing of cumulative declines post-policy adjustments [41] - The industry is expected to benefit from a clearer policy direction and a supportive environment for first-time homebuyers [41] Construction Engineering - The construction sector is focusing on high-dividend central state-owned enterprises and technology transformation [48] - Significant growth is anticipated in sectors such as intelligent computing and low-altitude economy development [48][49] Utilities - The electricity market is expected to see a bottoming out of spot prices, with both valuation and performance improving [53] - The nuclear power sector is projected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 110 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2030 [54] Transportation - The aviation industry is entering a low-growth supply era, with demand expected to drive ticket prices upward [57] - The highway sector is anticipated to maintain strong demand, with policies likely to enhance long-term investment value [60]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持建材行业"增持"评级。该行假设建材实物需求量在2025 年迎来本轮下滑的尾声，核心依据在于产业链已经先后转入缩表周期。该行对于建材板块的关键词 是："龟兔赛跑"，该行将供给改善比喻成龟，需求收缩比喻成兔，供给优化追上需求收缩的盈利改善契 机正在到来。大宗行业或迎来单位盈利中枢的底部反弹，消费建材价格竞争和费用有望同步改善。建材 板块估值和机构配置处于低位，龙头公司投资价值持续凸显。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 水泥行业：协同共识增强，盈利修复高确定性 2024年水泥需求在地产调整与基建托底减弱下承压，25年地产拖累减弱叠加基建资金改善下，需求压力 收窄企稳预期增强，25Q1降幅显著收窄正在兑现。24年行业重返协同，24Q4首次旺季错峰提价实质落 地盈利显著改善，25年观察行业保利润共识继续增强，25Q1价格及盈利同比明显改善，奠定全年良好 基础，25Q2观察在高基数下以稳为主，全年展望盈利中枢修复具备高确定性。长期供需格局的改善政 策预期亦在逐步落地。推荐水泥板块龙头公司海螺水泥，华新水泥，天山股份，上峰水泥，塔牌集团， 华润建材科技等。 消费建材：格局走向固化，行业盈 ...

建筑材料 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 22 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 由单边下行走向结构分化，赛道及龙头α开始显现 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建材行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，化债力度不及预期，房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | 1. 综述:行业压力仍存,结构性拐点逐步显现…………………………………………………………………………………… 5 | | --- | | 2. 消费建材:行业逐步探底,结构分化开始显现. | | 3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials sector [6]. Core Insights - The building materials sector experienced a convergence of non-operational disturbances in 2024, with signs of operational turning points emerging in Q1 2025. The sector faced a challenging environment characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, leading to a decline in revenue and profit margins due to intense price competition and a sluggish recovery in downstream real estate [1][2][5]. - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, stabilizing infrastructure demand and improving retail demand for building materials, which has led to a narrowing of revenue declines in various sub-sectors [1][5]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, Weixing New Materials, Tubao, and China Liansu, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in building materials retail [1][5][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the tracked 31 companies in the consumer building materials sector reported revenues and net profits of 170.7 billion and 5.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 6.9% and 47.8%. In Q1 2025, revenues and net profits were 32.7 billion and 1.3 billion, down 5.5% and 18.6% year-on-year [2][27][28]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.5%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.3%, down 2.6 percentage points, indicating that declining revenue and increased competition have significantly impacted profitability [2][30]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The report notes that in 2024, price competition intensified across various materials, with average prices for key raw materials such as asphalt and PVC showing declines. This has led to a lack of cost support for product pricing, further pressuring margins [3][30]. - The average price changes for major raw materials in 2024 included declines of 4.4% for asphalt and 5.6% for PVC, while some materials like epoxy showed a price increase of 5.2% [3][30]. Sub-sector Performance - Among the sub-sectors, only the gypsum board segment maintained stable growth, primarily driven by Beixin Building Materials' strong market position. Other segments like coatings, pipes, and tiles faced significant margin pressures due to intense competition [4][30]. - The report indicates that the waterproofing and board segments experienced substantial impairment losses in 2024, but the pressure is expected to ease as the market stabilizes [4][30]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that demand for building materials may stabilize at low levels, with revenue and profit declines expected to narrow in 2025. However, ongoing price competition is likely to continue, potentially leading to further industry consolidation [5][19]. - The expected recovery in the second-hand housing market and ongoing renovation demand are projected to support retail demand for building materials, with a focus on companies that have shown signs of recovery in their Q1 2025 reports [5][19].

Market Overview - Major indices opened higher with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11%, and ChiNext Index up 0.43%, with innovation drugs and mergers & acquisitions sectors leading the gains [1] - As of the latest data, Shanghai Composite Index stands at 3371.69, Shenzhen Component Index at 10182.25, and ChiNext Index at 2041.50, reflecting slight increases in their respective percentages [2] External Market Influences - U.S. stock market showed initial weakness due to Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign rating, but retail investor buying helped avoid a potential "stock, currency, and bond triple kill" scenario [3] - S&P 500 Index closed up 0.09% at 5963.6 points, with a rebound of 17% from the end of April, nearing historical highs [3] Industry Insights - **Exoskeleton Robots**: The market for exoskeleton robots in medical rehabilitation is expected to grow significantly, projected to reach $1.8 billion by 2024 and exceed $12 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 28% [4] - **Urban Renewal**: The urban renewal initiatives are anticipated to accelerate, potentially stabilizing demand for construction materials as housing sales improve [5] - **Nuclear Fusion Sector**: The nuclear fusion sector is experiencing strong growth prospects, with significant investments expected in domestic experimental projects, potentially exceeding 60 billion yuan [6] - **Liquor Industry**: The liquor industry is in a cyclical bottoming phase, with companies increasingly relying on market share gains and product diversification to drive performance [7][8]

Group 1 - The emphasis on urban renewal actions has increased from "vigorously implement" to "intensify implementation," indicating a stronger governmental focus on this initiative [2] - Urban renewal actions are expected to release rigid and improved housing demand, positively impacting the consumption of building materials [2] - The renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing is anticipated to create new housing demand, further boosting the consumption of waterproofing materials, coatings, and gypsum boards [2] Group 2 - Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, a leading company in the domestic ductile iron pipe industry, is expected to benefit from urban pipeline renovation and water conservancy facility construction [3] - Donghong Co., a leading consumer building materials company, primarily collaborates with state-owned enterprises and local governments, positioning it well for upcoming projects [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and building materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and China National Materials [3]. Core Views - The cement industry shows signs of improvement in the fundamentals from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a focus on corporate discipline and peak production implementation, as well as cement price trends [3][10]. - The glass industry experienced widespread losses in Q4 2024, but there was a significant improvement in Q1 2025, driven by the price of photovoltaic glass [3][15]. - The fiberglass sector saw a general improvement in profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profitability due to stable price increases and effective industry self-discipline [3][16]. - The consumer building materials sector continues to face declining revenues and profits, with expectations of sustained pressure on downstream demand from construction completions [3][20]. - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits among leading companies, indicating weak operational data [3][24]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry's fundamentals improved from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in quarterly cement production growth rates and a general recovery in net profits for leading companies [10]. - The national average cement price in early May 2025 was slightly lower than the same period last year, indicating a need to monitor corporate discipline and price trends [10]. Glass Industry - The glass industry faced significant losses in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 showed marked improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass prices [15]. - Key variables to watch include glass price trends and downstream demand changes [15]. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass companies reported improved profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profits due to stable price increases and effective supply-side management [16]. - The inventory levels remained stable, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand [16]. Consumer Building Materials - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector reported widespread revenue declines, with expectations of continued pressure on downstream demand linked to construction completions [20]. - The report anticipates a narrowing decline in new construction demand over the next year [20]. Construction Industry - The construction sector is seeing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, with many reporting weak operational data [24]. - The report highlights a significant drop in orders and revenues for central state-owned enterprises in Q1 2025 [24].