恒指报收26649.06点，涨1.55%，恒生科技指数报收5915.56点，涨1.34%，消费股领涨，白酒、旅游、 零售方向齐上涨；石油化工、黄金行业涨幅居前。个股方面，泡泡玛特涨逾8%，中海油涨近6%，比亚 迪股份涨近4%。（AI生成） 来源：第一财经 ...

2025-11-10 09:40:54 作者：狼叫兽 国内成品油价格调整窗口将于2025年11月10日24时开启，根据当前市场监测数据，本轮调价或将迎来年 内第七次上涨。截至11月6日收盘，国内成品油定价体系参考的原油变化率已达3.12%，预计汽、柴油 价格将上调约135元/吨。折合升价，92号汽油、95号汽油及0号柴油每升分别上调0.11元。 若此次调价如期落实，消费者加满一箱50升容量的92号汽油，相较调价前将多支出5.5元。2025年以 来，国内成品油价格已进行二十一轮调整，呈现"六涨九跌六搁浅"的格局。在涨跌互抵后，汽、柴油每 吨累计较年初分别下降745元和715元。此次调价若实施，全年调价格局将调整为"七涨九跌六搁浅"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On November 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $63.63 per barrel, up 0.39%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan was $581.75 per ton, up 1.04% [1] - The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea was $693.50 per ton, up 0.14%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port was $825.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - **PTA** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,664 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,652 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - The closing price of CZCE TA's near - month contract was 4,616 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,574 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,572 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $620.00 per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The near - far month spread was - 44 yuan per ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the basis was - 92 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan [1] - **PX** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,780 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the settlement price was 6,758 yuan per ton, up 0.99% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX's near - month contract was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98%; the settlement price was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,502 yuan per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China was $826.00 per ton, down 0.12%; the spot price of p - xylene in FOB South Korea was $801.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - The PXN spread was $243.25 per ton, down 2.80%; the PX - MX spread was $131.50 per ton, down 1.50%; the basis was - 278 yuan per ton, an increase of 69 yuan [1] - **PR** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,724 yuan per ton, up 0.92% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PR's near - month contract was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53%; the settlement price was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the market price in the South China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1] - The basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 64 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] - **Downstream** - On November 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 0.37% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,050 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 2.24% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,620 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the load rate of PTA factories in the PTA industry chain was 77.42%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 89.70%, unchanged; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.55%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 48.28%, down 21.72 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 46.68%, down 23.29 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 53.72%, down 89.32 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos was under maintenance, and the restart date was to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment was planned to be maintained at the end of this week, possibly shut down for 45 days, which remained to be watched [2] Market Analysis - **PX** - This week, the PX price rebounded after a decline, with the absolute price up 0.4% week - on - week to $823 per ton CFR on Friday. The weekly average price remained strong, up 0.2% week - on - week to $820 per ton CFR. The international oil price continued to be weak, and cost - side support was insufficient. The domestic PX supply remained stable, awaiting the realization of the expected changes in PTA devices [2] - Due to the release of sentiment from the news, the PX2601 contract closed at 6,780 yuan per ton (up 1.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 362,800 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load could still be effectively maintained even if there were fluctuations in the disproportionation or reform operations of domestic factories such as LIDONG and Hengli. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. Recently, market disturbances caused by rumors were obvious. Since 8.7 million tons of PTA devices were put into operation this year, it promoted the annual destocking of PX, which had an obvious supporting effect on PX. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to demand - side feedback [2] - **PTA** - Due to device changes, the TA2601 contract closed at 4,664 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 926,200 lots. On Thursday, the sales rate of polyester filament at the end of the session was around 228.61%, which was positive for the PTA market on Friday, and cost support remained. The PTA market rose slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuated within a limited range. Recently, many PTA device maintenance operations were carried out as planned, and the industry had long anticipated this. However, due to the continuously low processing fee, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, and there was actually no unexpected reduction. The domestic demand market was running moderately and weakly, but recently, the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable. Generally speaking, the supply side could not eliminate the pressure only by short - term maintenance or shutdown [2] - **PR** - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,710 - 5,810 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures showed a warm - biased shock. Most offers on the supply side were raised, and the downstream purchasing willingness was average, mainly for replenishing stocks on a just - in - time basis [2] - Following the cost movement, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,100 lots. The supply - side operation was temporarily stable, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream end - users were cautious, mainly following up with small just - in - time orders [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the PTA industry, indicating a potential for recovery but highlighting ongoing challenges in profitability [4][10]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been experiencing prolonged losses, with a significant decline in profitability expected in 2025 due to increased production capacity and a negative gross margin of -319 RMB/ton as of November 7 [4][6]. - An increase in maintenance schedules for PTA facilities is anticipated, which may lead to a tightening of supply and a potential recovery in profitability if production cuts are realized [6][8]. - The report suggests that the polyester sector may see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve, particularly for leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The PTA industry has been in a state of oversupply since 2022, leading to consistent losses across the sector, with only a few companies managing to achieve marginal profits [4][6]. - Recent data indicates that the industry operating rate is at 78%, reflecting a weak market environment [8]. 2. Maintenance and Supply Dynamics - Several PTA facilities are undergoing planned maintenance, including major players like Yisheng Dihua and Sichuan Energy Investment, which may further restrict supply in the short term [6][7]. - The report notes that if leading PTA companies continue to implement production cuts, the industry could see a return to breakeven profitability levels, with potential profit margins of 200-300 RMB per ton [8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies and high-quality refining firms, suggesting that companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical may benefit from improved market conditions [10]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the oil and gas sector, particularly for offshore service companies, as capital expenditures remain high [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG futures market is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation this week due to coastal cooling and increasing chemical demand. There are still traditional heating expectations in the market, causing the far - month prices to be stronger and the monthly spread to decline. The PG - SC ratio remains high. In the short term, the driving logic of PG is unclear, and the fundamentals remain tight. Attention should be paid to the price trends of crude oil and natural gas, as well as overseas fundamental changes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing price, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various energy - chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current price of LPG is 4272 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%, a monthly increase of 4.96%, and an annual decrease of 3.09% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG decreased by 2.19% to about 519,000 tons, with industrial gas at 58,000 tons (-1.77%), and civil gas at 173,000 tons (-1.21%). The arrival volume of LPG was 72,000 tons (-29.35%). Some enterprises in Shandong and North China carried out device maintenance, and only one enterprise in the Northeast resumed production, leading to a decline in domestic commercial volume. International prices generally fell, and due to poor chemical profits and tight supply - demand of non - US goods, some Chinese buyers intended to purchase US goods [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, the heating demand for LPG is gradually increasing, and the combustion demand is improving, with a slow recovery in overall demand. In the C4 deep - processing sector, the resumption of maleic anhydride units downstream of n - butane in November may drive up demand, but the profit of deep - processing units is under pressure, which restricts the rebound of raw material prices. In the isobutane sector, the operation of dehydrogenation units has improved the demand. In the propane deep - processing sector, demand has increased month - on - month, and the operating rate has returned to a high level, but recent sharp increases in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand have led to continuous losses in device profits, dampening the enthusiasm of enterprises [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG inventory in factories was 418,800 tons (-0.18%), and the port inventory was 298,000 tons (-3.65%). Refineries in various regions were generally stable. Some regions improved sales through price advantages, while others withheld sales due to low - supply expectations. Port arrivals decreased, and with the improvement of chemical demand as the temperature dropped, the overall demand increased, resulting in a significant reduction in port inventory [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The average weekly basis was 81.80 yuan/ton in East China, 94.20 yuan/ton in South China, and 150.20 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 250 to 4444 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, alkylation, and MTBE were 75.45%, 56.50%, and 41.60% respectively. The profits of PDH - made propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 461 yuan/ton, - 679 yuan/ton, and - 151 yuan/ton respectively [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27 (-0.90%), and the PG secondary - to - main monthly spread was 72 yuan/ton (-10.00%). In the fourth quarter, gas prices remained strong, while crude oil trended downward, and the oil - gas cracking spread maintained high - level oscillations [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Positive progress was made in the China - US summit in Busan, with the US making a series of commitments to suspend or cancel tariffs, export controls, and industrial investigations against China. Military confrontation between the US and Venezuela intensified, and there were continuous market news disturbances. Russian energy facilities were attacked, and there were expectations of maintenance for some cracking units in Japan and South Korea. The US and Europe imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India re - planned its energy procurement plan [4]. 3.3 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: The LPG market is expected to oscillate. In the short term, the driving logic is unclear, and the fundamentals remain tight. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, go long on PG2604 and short on PG2603. Attention should be paid to China - US tariffs, US sanctions against Russia, freight rate changes, and device changes [4]. 3.4 Other Information - The report also provides information on LPG futures price trends, regional spot prices and basis, factory and PDH device maintenance plans, and various price spread data for different regions and products [5][8][9][10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding the PTA sector, due to increased maintenance schedules and anticipated production cuts [3][4]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been in a prolonged state of loss since 2022, exacerbated by rapid capacity expansion. As of November 7, 2025, the PTA industry's gross profit reached -319 CNY/ton, indicating a loss across the sector [3][4]. - Recent increases in PTA maintenance schedules are expected to tighten supply, with major companies like Tongkun and Hengli yet to announce maintenance plans. If these companies proceed with production cuts, industry profitability may return to breakeven levels, with potential profit per ton increasing by 200-300 CNY [3][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude closing at 63.63 USD/barrel, down 2.21% from the previous week. This decline is coupled with an increase in drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [15][33]. Summary by Sections PTA Sector - The PTA industry is facing a significant downturn, with losses expected to continue into 2025. The increase in maintenance schedules is anticipated to reduce supply and support a recovery in profitability [3][4][8]. - Current PTA operating rates are at 78%, reflecting weak industry conditions, but with no significant inventory pressure, a quicker recovery is expected as maintenance plans are realized [8][10]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with a closing price of 63.63 USD/barrel, while WTI prices also fell to 59.75 USD/barrel. The overall trend suggests a potential for further price declines, although OPEC's production cuts may provide some support [15][17]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has increased slightly, indicating a potential uptick in exploration and production activities despite a year-over-year decline [25][30]. Refining Sector - The refining sector is seeing improved margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to 23.18 USD/barrel. This improvement is attributed to a recovery in demand and a tightening of supply due to maintenance activities [46][48]. - The domestic refining sector's product price differentials have also improved, suggesting a favorable environment for refining profitability moving forward [46][48]. Polyester Sector - The polyester chain is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift. Key companies to watch include Tongkun and Wankai New Materials [10][11].

Group 1 - Hengli Petrochemical's stock increased by 5%, reaching 20.36 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 737 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.53%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 143.316 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on March 9, 1999, and listed on August 20, 2001, is located in Dalian, Liaoning Province, and specializes in the research, production, and sales of polyester fibers, polyester films, and related products, as well as steam and electricity production [1] - The main revenue composition of Hengli Petrochemical includes refining products at 45.92%, PTA at 31.10%, polyester products at 19.24%, and others at 3.73% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, one fund under Caitong Securities Asset Management holds a significant position in Hengli Petrochemical [2] - Caitong Asset Management's Value Discovery Mixed A Fund (008276) held 942,500 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 3.38% of the fund's net value, ranking as the eighth largest heavy stock [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 29.14%, ranking 3153 out of 8219 in its category, and a one-year return of 22.27%, ranking 3253 out of 8125 [2]

请查收 今天（11月10日）24时 新一轮成品油调价窗口开启 ▼ 根据成品油的调价规则，在11月10日24时（周一晚）就要进行11月份的首次汽柴油价格调整，虽然近几个工作日涨幅连 续减少，不过到目前油价依然预计上涨130元/吨（0.10元/升至0.12元/升）。 就目前的涨幅而言，油价在连降之后，要在11月重新上涨。 按普通家用车50升油箱计算，调价后加满一箱92号汽油将多支出5元，物流运输等行业用车成本同步上升。 2025年油价怎么调？ 本年度油价调整日历 车主们注意啦！ ▼ 本轮油价调整时间为今天24时 今天有空的车主们 可以提前加油哦 转发告诉你身边的 车主朋友吧~ ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector experienced significant upward movement, with China Duty Free Group hitting a trading limit and reaching a nearly two-year high in stock price [6][10]. Market Performance - On November 10, the A-share market showed a downward trend, with the ChiNext Index falling over 2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index saw minor declines of 0.03% and 0.59%, respectively [2][3]. - The total trading volume reached 1.45 trillion CNY, with a predicted increase to 2.28 trillion CNY, reflecting a rise of 262.9 billion CNY [3]. Sector Analysis - The consumer sector, particularly food and beverage and duty-free segments, led the market gains, while sectors like engineering machinery and electronic components faced declines [3][6]. - The lithium battery sector showed resilience, with notable activity in chemical, semiconductor, and superhard materials sectors [3]. Stock Highlights - China Duty Free Group's stock reached a peak of 86.89 CNY, with a trading volume of 874,400 shares and a market capitalization of 179.76 billion CNY [8]. - Other stocks in the food and beverage sector, such as Dongbai Group and Sanyuan Foods, also saw significant gains, with some stocks hitting their trading limits [10][11]. Economic Indicators - The recent implementation of new duty-free policies in Hainan resulted in a 34.86% year-on-year increase in duty-free shopping amounts, totaling 506 million CNY, with 72,900 shoppers participating [10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year increase, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [10][12]. Policy Support - The Ministry of Finance announced continued efforts to boost consumption through fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, particularly in key sectors like elderly care and childcare [12].

Core Insights - The crude oil production in Inner Mongolia for June 2025 reached 181,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, although the growth rate has slowed by 5.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total crude oil production in Inner Mongolia was 1,089,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, which is a decrease of 10.1 percentage points from the previous year [3] - The growth rate in Inner Mongolia's crude oil production is higher than the national average by 11.1 percentage points for June and 9.2 percentage points for the first half of the year, accounting for 1.0% of the national total production [1][3] Monthly Production Analysis - In June 2025, the crude oil production in Inner Mongolia was 181,000 tons, with a growth rate of 12.5% compared to the same month last year [1] - The cumulative crude oil production from January to June 2025 was 1,089,000 tons, reflecting a growth of 10.5% year-on-year [3] Industry Context - The statistics pertain to large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [4]