Market Overview - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09% and the ChiNext Index up 0.15% [1] - The Hong Kong market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.22% [1][8] - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with nickel up 3.05% and lithium carbonate up 2.02% [1][9] Sector Performance - The advanced packaging, memory, consumer electronics, commercial aerospace, and photovoltaic sectors showed strength, while stablecoins and energy metals concepts weakened [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper hitting the daily limit and other companies like Yunnan Copper and Zijin Mining rising over 5% [1][2] - The commercial aerospace concept strengthened again, with companies like Tailong Technology and Aerospace Development seeing notable increases [2][3] Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper's stock price rose to 55.03, up 9.51% [2] - Tailong Technology experienced a five-day consecutive rise, indicating strong market interest [2] - New stock N Hengdongguang listed with a surge of over 1000%, reaching a price of 350 yuan [4] Bond Market - Government bond futures opened with slight increases across various maturities, with the 30-year contract up 0.04% and the 10-year contract up 0.05% [1][4]

展望后市，申万宏源指出，2026年汽车"两新"补贴政策落地将修复市场对行业总量的担忧，为新能源板 块带来明确利好。补贴政策将有效撬动换购需求，利好主打中低端市场的新能源整车企业，同时带动零 部件企业2026年上半年业绩显著改善。叠加行业反内卷涨价周期与智能化升级趋势，新能源产业链盈利 弹性有望释放，建议关注业绩有支撑、估值低位的零部件企业，以及智能化优势突出的新势力车企与核 心供应商。 每日经济新闻 2025年12月31日，A股三大指数高开后集体翻绿，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）开盘后跳水下跌， 跌幅为0.94%。盘面上，罗博特科上涨4.77%，中来股份上涨2.56%，迈为股份上涨2.30%，中伟股份上 涨1.68%。截至发文，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）成交额达1483万元，居同类基金首位。 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场跟踪创业板新能源指数的规模最大ETF基金。创业板新能源 指数主要涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏等多个细分领域。创业板新能源ETF华夏 （159368）高弹性，涨幅可达20cm；费率最低，管理费和托管费合计仅为0.2%；规模最大，截至2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global vacuum cleaner robot industry is experiencing a resurgence, with Stone Technology, once a market leader with a market value of 393 billion yuan, officially starting its IPO journey in Hong Kong, potentially becoming the world's first publicly listed vacuum cleaner robot company [1][12]. Group 1: Company Background - Stone Technology, known as the "king of vacuum cleaner robots," attracted significant investment from top venture capital and private equity firms, including Xiaomi Group, and achieved a peak market value of over 1 trillion yuan in 2021 [1][2]. - The company faced challenges as the global market shifted, leading to a decline in its market value to 393 billion yuan, despite efforts to expand its market share and enter the capital-intensive fields of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots [1][10]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In a recent move, Stone Technology showcased its embodied intelligence robot in a documentary, indicating a strategic shift as it prepares for its Hong Kong IPO [2][11]. - The company has launched the "P10 Pro" vacuum cleaner robot, priced at 3,999 yuan, which quickly became a bestseller, contributing to a 15.54% year-on-year increase in overall sales [8][12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Stone Technology reported revenue of 12.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.22%, but net profit decreased by 29.51% [12]. - The company is facing cash flow challenges, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -1.06 billion yuan due to rising raw material and R&D costs, highlighting the urgency for funding through the upcoming IPO [12].

转自：北京日报客户端 12月29日，由中国国家博物馆、工业和信息化部新闻宣传中心联合主办的"筑基强国路——中国制造'十 四五'成就展"正式开幕。此次展览通过高端制造、产业基础、智能制造、绿色制造、融合发展、美好生 活等六大板块、300余件（套）展品，全景呈现"十四五"期间中国制造的辉煌成果。 "十四五"期间，中国新能源汽车产业迅猛发展，2024年产销双双突破1300万辆，连续十年稳居全球第 一。本次展览中，由赛力斯与华为联合设计的问界M9与国产大飞机C919、复兴号动车组等并列展出， 不仅彰显自主品牌在电动化、智能化转型中的领先成果，更标志着中国汽车工业正加速迈向全球价值链 高端。 校检：张萌、孙朝阳 未来，赛力斯将继续坚持"软件定义汽车"理念，深化智能化与电动化融合发展，以持续的技术迭代与产 品进化，不断优化用户体验，引领中国新能源汽车产业迈向更高质量、更高水平的发展新阶段，助力制 造强国建设行稳致远。 审核：朱沙 来源：北京日报客户端 据了解，截至目前，问界系列累计交付突破90万辆，其中问界M9自上市以来累计交付突破26万辆，累 计20个月稳居50万级豪华车市场销冠，改变了豪华市场长期由国外品牌主导的局面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the gold and silver markets are expected to maintain a strong trend driven by the transformation of the macro - financial order and the tight micro - supply - demand structure, but their logical paths will significantly diverge [1][2][3]. - Gold's core narrative revolves around the deepening of "de - dollarization" and the revaluation of credit assets. It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce [2]. - Silver will enter an independent bull market dominated by "rigid industrial demand" and "supply bottlenecks". It is expected to challenge the $75 - $100 per ounce range in 2026 [3]. - For trading strategies, gold should be allocated as a "ballast stone" in the portfolio on dips; silver can be considered for trend - following long positions driven by industrial demand, but strict stop - losses are required. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage window brought by the mean - reversion of the gold - silver ratio [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025: Gold and Silver Continued to Shine 1.1 K - shaped Differentiation in the Performance of Major Asset Classes in 2025 - Equity and fixed - income assets: Chinese stocks rose 17.60% in 2025, and global stocks rose 17.63%. In the bond market, domestic bonds' returns dropped to 0.64%, while global bonds were relatively stable at 3.02% [9]. - Precious metals: Gold's return reached 53.91% in 2025, and silver's return was as high as 132.11%, becoming the best - performing asset class of the year [10]. - Energy and commodities: Crude oil had a return of - 10.82% in 2025, falling for two consecutive years. Industrial products and agricultural products also showed negative growth [11]. - Other assets: Real estate continued to slump, while foreign exchange and cash had stable and moderate positive returns [13][14]. 1.2 Liquidity Release and Demand Imagination Space Boosted the Surge of Gold and Silver - Gold showed strong anti - decline ability, with positive returns in 9 out of 12 observed years. In 2025, its increase was as high as 53.91% [15]. - Silver had higher volatility and elasticity. In 2025, it soared by 132.11%, driven by strong industrial demand and financial speculation funds [15]. 1.3 Multiple Narratives Drove the Soaring of Gold and Silver in 2025 - Gold market: It had two clear bull markets in 2025. The first wave was triggered by Trump's radical policies, and the second wave was due to the Fed's dovish turn and the revaluation of the US dollar's credit. At the end of the year, the price fluctuated at a high level [17][18]. - Silver market: It lagged behind in the first half of the year and then led the rise. In December, a "short - squeeze" market pushed the silver price to a new high [21]. 2. Multiple Factors May Push the Gold Price Higher 2.1 Global Monetary System Reconstruction: Gold Value Revaluation under the De - dollarization Wave - Dollar's decline in global reserves: The dollar's share in global official reserves dropped to 56.3% in Q2 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline. Gold's share in global official reserves has increased, and it is expected to reach the historical median level of 34% in 2026 [25][32]. - Emerging market central banks' gold purchases: Since 2022, emerging market central banks have been accelerating their gold purchases to hedge against the dollar risk. In 2022 - 2024, the average annual gold demand of central banks was 1072.3 tons, more than double the previous level [33]. 2.2 Monetary Policy Easing of Countries Led by the Fed - Global monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing since 2025. The Fed's interest - rate cuts will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is beneficial to the gold price [41][43]. 2.3 Long - term Benefits of Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Global Debt Levels to the Gold Price - The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits and government debts in major economies, especially the US, has weakened the credibility of sovereign - credit currencies. Gold, as a hard asset, has become the preferred choice to hedge against such risks [45]. 2.4 Re - evaluation of Inflation Expectations and Gold's Safe - haven Attribute - In 2026, global inflation shows significant differentiation. Whether inflation is high or there is a deflation risk, the value of gold as an ultimate safe - haven asset will be reflected [51][55]. 2.5 Market Investment Demand: Resonance of Institutional Allocation and ETF Fund Inflows - Global gold ETFs: In 2025, the inflow of funds into global gold ETFs reached a new high since 2020. In 2026, the return of ETF investors and the continuous buying of central banks will jointly push up the gold price [56][58]. - Institutional investors' re - balance of gold asset allocation: In 2026, adding gold to the investment portfolio can reduce volatility and improve risk - adjusted returns. The proportion of gold assets held by institutional investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% [60]. 2.6 Geopolitical Risks: Ultimate Safe - haven Asset in an Uncertain Environment - Geopolitical conflicts: In 2025, geopolitical tensions provided support for the gold price. In 2026, although the risk may be reduced, it cannot be completely eliminated, and gold's strategic value will continue to exist [62][63]. - Global elections: The elections in major economies in 2025 - 2026 will bring policy uncertainties, which will strengthen the allocation value of gold as a tool to hedge against policy risks [66]. 2.7 Gold Supply Side: Fundamental Constraint of Scarcity - Gold supply is limited. The annual growth rate of new gold mining is slow, and the production cost has increased significantly. The cost - support effect on the gold price will be reflected in the pricing [69][72][73]. 2.8 Gold Demand Side: Strong and Diverse - Global gold demand has been increasing in the past three years. The consumption structure is changing from jewelry - dominated to investment and official - reserve - driven. Central bank gold purchases and gold ETF investments have become the key driving forces [77][79][80]. 3. The Global Silver Supply - Demand Gap is an Important Driver of Capital Inflows 3.1 Silver Supply Status and Capacity Bottlenecks - Silver supply has been in a state of tightness. The annual compound growth rate of global silver mine production has been negative since 2019. More than 70% of silver comes from associated mines, which restricts supply growth. It is expected that the supply growth will remain slow in the future [81][83]. 3.2 Photovoltaic Industry: Core Growth Engine of Silver Demand - The photovoltaic industry is the core driver of silver demand growth. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic field accounts for 17% of the total silver demand in 2024. The replacement of P - type batteries by N - type batteries will increase the demand for silver [88][89]. 3.3 Silver Demand Potential in the New - Energy Vehicle Field - New - energy vehicles have become an important growth engine for silver demand. The silver consumption of pure electric vehicles is 1.7 times that of fuel - powered vehicles. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of silver consumption in the automotive industry will be 4.5% - 12.5% from 2025 - 2027 [94][96]. 3.4 Silver Demand Potential in the Fields of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, and the Internet of Things - These emerging fields provide new application spaces for silver. The silver demand in these fields is expected to increase significantly in the future, and they will jointly form the "four pillars" of silver industrial demand [97][98]. 3.5 Support of Continuous Inventory Depletion to the Silver Price - As of December 2025, global silver inventories are at a low level. The low - inventory problem is caused by the long - term contradiction between the explosion of photovoltaic demand and the rigidity of mineral supply, which will support the silver price in the future [100][103][104]. 4. Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 4.1 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by This Report - Gold: It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce. The price may fluctuate around $4,700 in the first half of the year, break through $5,000 in the middle of the year, and may be adjusted in the second half of the year, but the decline will be limited [105][106]. - Silver: It will enter an independent bull market driven by "structural shortages" in 2026, with the price range between $75 - $100 per ounce. The price is more determined by inventory and delivery risks [108][109]. 4.2 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by Other Institutions - Gold: Most international investment banks are optimistic about the gold price in 2026, with target prices concentrated in the $4,500 - $5,055 range [111][112]. - Silver: The current price has exceeded most institutions' forecasts. Some institutions expect the silver price to reach $100 per ounce [113][114]. 5. Gold and Silver Trading Strategies in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Strategies for Gold and Silver in 2026 - Gold: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and use it as a core allocation in the investment portfolio. Buy in batches when the price corrects by 5% - 10% [117]. - Silver: Closely monitor the development of key industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles. Adopt an active long - position strategy when the industrial demand is strong, and set strict stop - losses [118]. - Hedging strategy: Adding precious metals to the investment portfolio can reduce the overall asset volatility and effectively disperse risks [119]. 5.2 Arbitrage Trading Based on the Mean - Reversion of the Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio has a characteristic of mean - reversion. When the ratio is at an extreme level, buy the undervalued one and sell the overvalued one. In 2026, pay attention to the extreme changes in the gold - silver ratio for arbitrage opportunities [122][123].

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究所 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：张清 投资咨询： Z0019679 2025 年 12 月 25 日 中辉期货研究 2026 商品年度报告 年 碳酸锂 储能高景气，碳酸锂开启新周期 摘 要 供应端：从全球资源端来看，锂资源仍有放量空间，而且大部分以中资企 业投产的项目为主。由于 2025 年价格处于低位的时间较短，产能出清不够彻 底，供应端依然呈现分散，弹性大的特征，高价仍会刺激存量项目提升开工 率。 需求端：终端需求增长的确定性较强，2026 年全球新能源汽车渗透率有 望达到 30%，带动动力电池需求增长，尤其是国内纯电动汽车比例提升以及重 卡等商用车同比保持高增；储能市场在经济性提升和海内外需求共振的背景 下，装机需求有望持续提升。 综合来看， 2026 年碳酸锂将从供应过剩逐步转向紧平衡的格局，行业 库存覆盖天数明显下降将推动价格中枢上移。从长期来看，本轮周期投产周 期高峰已过，而全球各国对储能的支持使得乐观预期强化，市场投机需求旺 盛。但高供应弹性下价格上涨节奏 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.21%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.22%. The new energy vehicle sector led the gains, with NIO rising over 3% and Xpeng Motors increasing more than 2%, while tech stocks adjusted [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the volatility in asset performance and frequent style and sector rotations have led to a decline in the clarity of main lines in the market, with a weaker activity level for risk assets towards the end of the year. They identified two major consensus points: 1) The logic for the bulk commodity sector is solid and subject to rapid revaluation; 2) Weak recovery in domestic demand suggests a left-side allocation in the consumer sector [1] - CITIC Securities highlighted the recent appreciation of the RMB, which is favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets. They expect stable macro-financial conditions to lead to a stable banking operating environment by 2026, with bank interest margins bottoming out and income and profit recovery in the real sector [1] - Founder Securities mentioned that the central economic work conference and the Ministry of Finance have clarified the optimization of the "two new" policies, with multiple regions selecting old-for-new platform enterprises. Reports indicate that national subsidies will continue in 2026, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per vehicle, focusing on phasing out old high-emission vehicles while enhancing subsidies for new energy and hybrid models [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities stated that the pressure from stock unlocks in the Hong Kong market will significantly decrease in January 2026. In December, a total of 113.9 billion HKD was unlocked, which has been a constraint on the market. In January, the unlock market value will drop to 47.2 billion HKD, particularly from mid-January to mid-February, where no companies will have unlock values exceeding 10 billion HKD, indicating a reduction in unlock pressure and potential for a rebound [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the financial performance and stock activity of Futec Technology, indicating a decline in stock price and significant trading volume on December 30 [1] - As of December 30, Futec Technology's financing balance reached 106 million yuan, accounting for 2.34% of its market capitalization, which is above the 70th percentile of the past year [1] - The company reported a revenue of 2.559 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 116.31%, with a net profit of 137 million yuan, up 65.94% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Futec Technology has a total of 9,070 shareholders as of December 19, 2025, reflecting a 1.80% increase from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 1.76% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.9983 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [3] - As of September 30, 2025, notable changes in institutional holdings include the exit of several funds from the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Continue to be bullish on equity assets in 2026, maintaining a "slow bull" pattern. However, the narrative of liquidity will weaken marginally, and the expectation of economic rebound remains weak, so the increase in 2026 may be smaller than that in 2025 [3][8] - Structurally, it is more optimistic about the opportunities in technology growth stocks and the profit repair direction of enterprises in the "anti-involution" line. It is more bullish on IM. If incremental policies for real estate and consumption are implemented, low-valued sectors have the dual opportunities of profit and valuation repair, and IF can be allocated [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs External Environment - **Sino-US Relations**: Before the US mid-term elections in 2026, Sino-US frictions will continue, but they are more of a means of game, and the probability of a significant increase in tariffs is small. Sino-US relations will be in a period of phased relaxation. Pay attention to the possible visit of Trump to China in April 2026, which may cause significant market fluctuations [5][16] - **US Interest Rate Policy**: The recent rise in the US unemployment rate to 4.6% and the decline in core CPI to 2.6% in November provide a basis for interest rate cuts. It is expected that there will be 2 - 3 interest rate cuts in 2026, with a space of 50 - 75BP [18] - **Global Capital Flow**: With the continuation of the global interest rate cut process, overseas funds' allocation demand is expected to further spill over to emerging markets. Chinese equity assets are cost-effective, and overseas funds are expected to contribute more marginal increments to the domestic market. However, Japan's interest rate hike to 0.75% may disrupt global capital spillover and weaken the capital spillover effect [23] Domestic Judgment - **Policy Orientation**: Fiscal policy remains positive, and monetary policy is moderately loose. The support at the macro level has not increased. The real estate market is in the deep - water area of stability, and policies to expand consumption are expected. The main lines of new quality productivity and anti - involution remain unchanged. Capital market policies aim to enhance internal market stability, with strict supervision as the norm [28][31] - **Economic Situation**: GDP growth rate will remain relatively stable at around 4.9% in 2026. Economic stability depends on the central government's borrowing. Manufacturing investment and infrastructure construction investment are expected to pick up in 2026, while the real estate market is still in a downturn. Domestic consumption improvement has fallen short of expectations, and exports may still drive GDP growth next year [34][35][38] - **Market Liquidity**: The A - share market will maintain sufficient liquidity in 2026. Incremental funds come from retail investors' new accounts, margin trading funds, index ETFs, dividend reinvestment, foreign capital, and long - term funds (insurance funds). However, attention should be paid to the impact of shareholder reductions and net outflows of southbound funds, as well as the IPO progress [52] Structural Judgment - **Industry Growth**: The economic growth engine is shifting, and structural opportunities still exist in 2026. Traditional industries such as real estate, construction, coal, and food and beverage are still under pressure of negative growth, while industries representing cutting - edge technologies such as computer, electronics, and power equipment maintain growth. Non - ferrous metals also benefit from technologies such as AI [62] - **Growth vs. Value Stocks**: The strength of domestic growth stocks and value stocks is highly correlated with the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond. It is expected that the US will cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in 2026, and the yield of the US Treasury bond has room to decline further, so growth stocks are expected to remain strong [70] - **Index Allocation**: From an absolute valuation perspective, the valuations of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 are both below 15 times, with allocation value. If incremental policies for real estate and consumption are implemented, low - valued sectors have the dual opportunities of profit and valuation repair, and IF can be allocated. The absolute valuations of the CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and STAR 50 have increased significantly, pending verification of profit fundamentals. Among the four major index futures, the CSI 1000 has the highest annualized basis rate, which can provide a safety cushion, and can be allocated when its annualized basis rate is higher than 15% [71][75]

Core Insights - The report highlights the steady growth of the animation film industry, with animated films accounting for nearly 50% of total box office revenue in 2025, showcasing a significant shift from a niche category to a major player in the market [36][37] - The gaming industry is also noted for its robust growth, with a focus on AI applications enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation, suggesting a positive outlook for companies in this sector [15][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy improvements and technological advancements in driving the performance of various sectors, including media and entertainment, as well as new materials [17][29] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown slight upward movement, with various sectors such as financials, petrochemicals, and aerospace leading the gains, while energy metals and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [6][10][11] - The report indicates that the average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are above their three-year median levels, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][10] Industry Analysis - The animation film sector has seen a significant increase in box office contributions, with top films like "Nezha 2" and "Zootopia 2" leading the charge, indicating a growing consumer preference for animated content [36][37] - The gaming industry is projected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by a combination of market demand and technological integration, particularly in AI [15][17] - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from increasing demand in manufacturing and technological innovation, with a strong emphasis on sustainable practices [21][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the gaming and animation sectors that are leveraging AI technologies for growth, as well as those in the new materials industry that are positioned to capitalize on market trends [17][29] - Specific companies such as Jiubite, Perfect World, and Light Media are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [17][18]