郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局并未改变。他预计，全球原油供需平衡的实质性拐点可能出现在2026年一 季度之后，届时供给增长受限与需求季节性回暖或共同为油价提供上行动力。 进入2026年，国际原油市场风云再起。受伊朗局势影响，布伦特原油价格一度突破70美元/桶关口，在 不到一个月的时间内累计反弹超过10美元/桶，成为近半年来最为强劲的一轮上涨。 市场普遍认为，近期美国在中东地区的军事行动，加剧了市场对伊朗原油供应可能中断的担忧。然而， 在"火热"的盘面之下，能化研究员在接受期货日报记者采访时却冷静地表示，全球原油市场供需宽松的 基本格局并未发生根本性扭转，当前涨幅已蕴含较高的地缘风险溢价，需警惕市场情绪退潮后的回调风 险。 "中东地缘局势对油价的影响主要包括两个方面。"中辉期货能化研究员郭艳鹏分析道，"一是伊朗自身 的原油供应，其产量已达350万桶/日，出口量约160万桶/日；二是其毗邻的霍尔木兹海峡，作为全球石 油贸易咽喉要道，日均通过量巨大。"他表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间布伦特油价因地缘风险带来的溢 价在15美元/桶左右，而本轮自1月初以来的上涨幅度已超10美元/桶，已经接近上一轮冲突的溢价幅 度。 海证 ...

据追风交易台，在"原油将迎来史诗级过剩"的共识声浪中，巴克莱给出了一个明显逆市场的判断：眼下市场所担忧的供给过剩，规模被高估、持续时间被夸 大。 在巴克莱看来，当前并不是原油熊市的起点，而更像是多年上行周期前的"最后一次情绪错配"。 巴克莱明确指出，国际油价将在2026年下半年开启一轮持续数 年的上行周期。 市场为何会误判？"过剩叙事"本身就站不住脚 过去一年，市场反复引用 IEA、EIA 的供需预测，认为 2026 年全球原油市场将出现 300–400万桶/日 的供给过剩。但巴克莱强调， 如果过剩真实存在，应当 首先反映在库存之中 。 然而，现实数据并不支持这一判断，巴克莱认为，现实数据并不支持这一判断。 第一，所谓"4百万桶/日过剩"，在现实中根本没有出现。 无论是陆上商业库存，还是海上浮仓、在途原油，都明显低于这些模型所暗示的水平。 价格本身也给出了答案——布伦特油价并未跌入市场反复预期的40–50 美元区间，而是表现出明显韧性。 真正的拐点不在当下，而在"非OPEC供给范式"发生变化之后 如果说短期的分歧来自对"库存与需求"的误读，那么巴克莱真正看多原油的底层逻辑，指向2026年之后的供给结构变化。 ...

海证期货能化研究员郑梦琦也持相似观点。她表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间，原油市场对地缘风险的 反应和消退都较为迅速。当前原油市场供需过剩，若伊朗地缘风险并未进一步实质性发酵，其带来的风 险溢价将逐步回落，弱势的基本面会重新压制油价。 尽管地缘事件吸引了市场的绝大部分目光，但分析师们均认为，决定油价中长期走向的基石仍是供需基 本面。从供给端看，上述两位研究员均指出短期存在一些扰动因素，如哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田的意外停 产、美国极寒天气导致的产量短暂下降等，但这些影响被普遍认为是"暂时的"。郑梦琦表示，美国原油 产量仍处于历史高位，冬季风暴的影响短暂，港口流量已快速恢复。长期来看，OPEC+在一季度结束 后存在潜在的增产预期，全球原油供应预计较为充足。 需求侧则呈现出结构性分化。郑梦琦表示，成品油需求中，柴油相对较强，形成一定支撑，但汽柴油整 体需求相对较弱，"新能源替代旧能源是大势所趋，新能源车销量占比已超过传统燃油车，柴油重卡的 市场份额也在被侵蚀"。她引用国际能源署（IEA）的预测称，2026年汽油和柴油的需求同比增速仅有 0.3%和0.8%，全球原油库存将攀升至相对高位。 郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling below 49,000 points, closing down 179.09 points or 0.36% at 48,892.47 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.94% to 23,461.82 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,939.03 points. Despite the decline, all three indices recorded gains in January, with the S&P 500 and Dow up 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively, and the Nasdaq up 1% [3][14]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for December exceeded expectations, with a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.5%, matching the highest level in nearly a year. This indicates persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [9][22]. Commodity Performance - International oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with WTI crude oil near-month contracts down 0.32% at $65.51 per barrel, and Brent crude down 0.03% at $70.69 per barrel. The precious metals market experienced significant declines, with COMEX gold futures for February delivery dropping 11.37% to $4,713.90 per ounce, marking the largest drop since January 1980. Silver futures fell 31.35% to $78.29 per ounce, the worst performance since March 1980 [4][15]. Individual Stock Performance - Apple Inc. saw a 0.46% increase, driven by strong iPhone demand, with Q1 FY2026 earnings surpassing Wall Street expectations. However, concerns regarding memory supply chain issues remain, with upcoming quarterly reports being critical for short-term stock performance [5][17]. - Tesla Inc. rose 3.32%, while other major tech stocks like Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and Meta experienced declines ranging from 0.04% to 2.95% [5][17]. - Verizon Communications Inc. surged over 11% after reporting adjusted earnings and net revenue that exceeded market expectations, along with a $25 billion stock buyback plan [19]. Chinese Market Indices - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.36%, with major companies like Alibaba, NetEase, Baidu, and JD.com all declining over 2%, and Pinduoduo down 1.59% [8][20].

Group 1 - American Airlines plans to resume daily flights to Venezuela, facilitating travel for business and leisure [1] - The Venezuelan government confirmed the restoration of commercial air traffic with the U.S., following a conversation between the interim president and President Trump [1] - The U.S. Department of Transportation had previously suspended all flights to Venezuela in May 2019 due to security concerns [1] Group 2 - On the same day as the resumption of flights, Venezuela's interim president signed a reform bill for the oil industry, allowing private and foreign investments [2] - The reform aims to strengthen the Venezuelan oil sector by updating participation mechanisms [2] - The new legislation grants foreign companies clear operational control over oil production enterprises, effectively reducing the role of the state-owned oil company [2]

【周六你需要知道的隔夜全球要闻：特朗普相中鹰派老将沃什掌舵美联储，黄金、白银断崖式崩盘；美 国公开爱泼斯坦案海量档案；SpaceX上市估值剑指1.5万亿美元】 1、美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理 事凯文·沃什担任下任美联储主席。这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 2、因市场担忧沃什的鹰派立场，贵 金属获利抛压激增，黄金、白银出现崩盘式跳水，白银盘中一度暴跌36%，黄金最高跌超12%。现货黄 金最终收跌9.52%，报4865美元/盎司。白银收跌26.9%，报84.7美元/盎司。黄金、白银1月仍有12%、 18%的涨幅。现货铂金重挫17.59%，1月累涨1.65%。现货钯金重挫14.89%，1月累涨4.66%。 3、美股三 大指数收盘集体下跌，道指跌0.36%，1月累涨1.73%；纳指跌0.94%，1月累涨0.95%；标普500指数指数 跌0.43%，1月累涨1.37%。黄金、白银股大幅下挫，全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust跌28%。热门 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.36%，1月累涨2.69%。 4、国际油价30日下跌。WTI3月原 油期货收于每桶65.21美元，跌幅为0.32 ...

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 埃克森美孚（XOM）周五早盘下跌0.9%课次钱该公司报告第四季度每股收益和营收均超预期，理由是 产量创纪录及强劲的炼油利润率；全年盈利为288亿美元，向股东返还了372亿美元。 埃克森美孚（XOM）周五早盘下跌0.9%课次钱该公司报告第四季度每股收益和营收均超预期，理由是 产量创纪录及强劲的炼油利润率；全年盈利为288亿美元，向股东返还了372亿美元。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Kazakh officials accepted bribes to approve billions of dollars of costs incurred by top oil companies at one of its giant fields, representatives of the government said in a confidential arbitration ... ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a dramatic crash on January 29, 2026, with gold prices plummeting nearly 7% within 28 minutes after reaching a historic high of $5600 per ounce, while silver prices fell by 11% during the same period [1][3]. Market Shock - The gold price reached a peak of $5626.80 per ounce before crashing, with a drop of $380, marking a significant decline [3]. - London spot gold hit a low of $5107.78 per ounce, reflecting a drop of over 7%, while silver fell to $107.758 per ounce, with a decline exceeding 8% [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw a rapid decline in gold prices, dropping from a historic high of 1200 CNY per gram to a low of 1148.01 CNY per gram, with a daily fluctuation of 8.08% [3]. Algorithmic Trading Influence - The surge in algorithmic trading in the precious metals market contributed to the rapid price decline, as automated systems triggered sell orders when prices hit certain thresholds [5]. - The previous year saw unprecedented growth in the gold market, with global physical gold demand surpassing 5000 tons for the first time, and gold prices increasing by 44% year-on-year [5]. Policy Changes - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's decision to raise margin requirements for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures intensified market sell-offs, forcing leveraged traders to close positions [6]. - Political developments, including potential changes in U.S. monetary policy and easing geopolitical tensions, also influenced market sentiment, leading to a shift of funds away from precious metals [7][8]. Central Bank Perspective - Despite market volatility, global central banks maintained their gold reserves, with purchases reaching 863 tons in 2025, significantly above the long-term average [9]. - The World Gold Council noted that the price surge in 2025 solidified gold's status as a key reserve asset for central banks, investors, and consumers [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent market fluctuations may represent a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift in the long-term upward trend of gold prices [9]. - The ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar credit system is expected to support continued upward pressure on gold prices, with potential for a new round of increases in 2026 [14][15]. - The market is anticipated to recover from the recent lows, with gold prices rebounding from $5107 to $5370, indicating a shift from panic to stabilization [16].

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a conditional easing of sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, allowing U.S. entities to engage in transactions related to Venezuelan oil with the Venezuelan government and its state-owned oil company, provided certain conditions are met [1] - Transactions must comply with U.S. law, and funds must be deposited into a foreign government deposit fund or other accounts designated by the U.S. Treasury, as per a presidential executive order signed on January 9 [1] - The U.S. has implemented multiple rounds of strict sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in recent years, while also adjusting policies through licensing documents issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control [1]