1. 1月30日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指 期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.35%，标普期货跌 0.34%，纳指期货跌0.44%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数齐涨。欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.04%，英国富 时100指数涨0.5%，法国CAC40指数涨0.8%，德国DAX30指数涨0.96%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌 0.64%，报65.0美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.69%，报69.11美元/桶。纽交所 黄金跌3.69%，报5157.2美元/盎 司。 市场消息 1、特朗普正式提名沃什执掌美联储，CME数据显示美联储到6月累计降息25个基点概率 达48.3%，货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次且每次25个基点。 2、芝加哥期权交易所波动 率指数接近盘中低点，报17.80点。 3、印尼金融监管机构负责人辞职，为印尼股市抛售承担责任。 4、 印度外汇储备增至创纪录的7094.1亿美元（截至1月23日）。 5、以色列将于周日重新开放加沙与埃及之 间的拉法口岸。 6、伊朗外交部长表示伊朗的 导弹问题绝不会成为谈判议题，已为战争或外交两种情况 做好准备，希望就有尊严的谈判达成框架协议，目前没有计划与美国 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于美国墨西哥湾和哈萨克斯坦的供应增长带动石油产量激增，雪佛龙(CVX.US) 第四季度业绩超出分析师预期，这有助于缓解原油价格下跌的影响。第四季度调整后净利润为每股1.52 美元，比分析师平均预期高出0.14美元。与此同时，雪佛龙将股息提高4%至每股1.78美元，但比预期低 0.1美元。营收为468.7亿美元（同比下降10.3%），高于市场预期。 由于哈萨克斯坦腾吉兹等地的新供应投入使用，以及公司整合了从赫斯收购中获得的资产，四季度产量 比上年同期增长了20%以上，达到每天 405 万桶。 雪佛龙公司公布该季度净利润为 27.7 亿美元，即每股 1.39 美元，与去年同期净利润 32.4 亿美元(即每 股 1.84 美元)相比下降了约 14%。 雪佛龙首席财务官Eimear Bonner在接受采访时表示："我们之前谈到的现金流拐点和现金创造目标—— 我们在2025年实现了。我们说到做到，这确实让我们处于有利地位。" 雪佛龙预计今年将实现更多增长，产量预计将增长7%至10%，主要来自圭亚那和东地中海地区的油 田。雪佛龙首席执行官Mike Wirth去年大部分时间都在裁员、降低运营成本，并完 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks are the core factors affecting the crude oil market. The escalation of US - Iran tensions may lead to supply disruptions and drive up oil prices. If the situation eases, the risk premium in oil prices may quickly disappear. The upside of oil prices may be limited if the situation does not further escalate, but short - term pulse - type price increases may occur due to unexpected events. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In January, the crude oil market was strong under geopolitical influence. At the beginning of the month, the US raid on Venezuela and the detention of President Maduro raised concerns about supply disruptions, supporting short - term price increases. Then, the US hinted at relaxing sanctions on Venezuela, causing a drop in oil prices. Subsequently, rising Middle - East geopolitical risks, such as Trump's military threat to Iran and the deployment of US warships, pushed up oil prices again [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Tensions - The US detained Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. A large number of US military planes flew to Europe, and Iran strengthened its combat readiness. Trump is considering new major strikes against Iran. As the US completes military deployment in the Middle East, the risk of intensified geopolitical tensions is rising. The way of US military intervention will determine the impact on oil prices [10] - The US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first tripartite talks, but there were still significant differences on the issue of Ukrainian territory. The situation is expected to continue with a combination of fighting and negotiation, and the direct impact on oil prices is currently limited [11] 3.2.2 OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to pause production increases in the first quarter. The total OPEC+ crude oil production in December decreased compared to November. The suspension of production increases and over - quota cuts support oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of rising oil prices and Middle - East tensions on OPEC+ production policies [14] 3.2.3 Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The Fed upgraded its assessment of the US economy. Powell said that interest rate cuts depend on the labor market. Although the market has priced in the pause of rate cuts, expectations of future rate cuts may rise due to Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chairman [17] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased in December, but the growth rate slowed down. After the end of the first - quarter production - increase suspension, attention should be paid to changes in OPEC+ production policies [18] - US crude oil production decreased from the previous month as of January 23, and is expected to remain stable at a high level [21] - The number of US oil rigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24] 3.3.2 Demand - In December, the US manufacturing PMI decreased and was below the boom - bust line, which suppressed crude oil demand to some extent. The US refinery utilization rate decreased seasonally, but is expected to rise in the second quarter [26][31] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI increased and was above the boom - bust line. The production side was relatively stable, but the demand side was weak. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed a differentiation trend, and overall domestic crude oil consumption is expected to slightly improve [39][43] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA crude oil inventory faced the pressure of seasonal accumulation. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased slightly, and the gasoline inventory reached an inflection point [48][52]

雪佛龙(CVX.N)：预计第一季度停工造成的影响相当于每天18.5万至22.5万桶油当量。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Due to geopolitical situations and cold weather, crude oil prices are oscillating strongly. However, the market is still in a state of oversupply, and the EIA's latest January report has raised the expected surplus for 2026. Traders should be aware of significant price fluctuations and manage risks [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025, suspending production increases in February and March 2026. Despite the off - peak demand season, winter storms led to an unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories and a slight increase in refined oil inventories, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories. US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day, about 15% of the national production, last weekend due to the storms. The IMF raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude, which currently has little impact on global supply and demand. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran on the 23rd and has not ruled out military action. The Iranian military will conduct live - fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1 - 2. The Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will restart, but only half of its capacity will be restored by February 7 [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 465.8 yuan/ton and a high of 499.6 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4265 to 44117 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price forecast by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On January 28, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 decreased by 2.295 million barrels, against an expected increase of 1.848 million barrels, and were 2.94% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, against an expected increase of 1.009 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, against an expected decrease of 583,000 barrels; heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, against an expected increase of 279,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its November 2025 crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week ending January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, near the historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a 0.08% decrease from the same period last year, with the decline narrowing. Gasoline weekly production increased 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 8.266 million barrels per day, a 0.39% decrease from the same period last year. Diesel weekly production increased 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 3.721 million barrels per day, a 4.78% decrease from the same period last year. The increase in gasoline and diesel production led to a 2.49% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]

市场焦点方面，受国际贵金属价格大幅震荡影响，今日黄金股集体遭遇重挫。其中，山东黄金 （HK01787）跌超14%，江西铜业股份（HK00358）、中国黄金国际（HK02099）、紫金黄金国际 （HK02259）跌超10%，紫金矿业、招金矿业跌超9%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股普跌，快手、小米跌超3%，腾讯、阿里巴巴跌超2%，百度、联想、美团、 京东、哔哩哔哩跌超1%。石油股普遍下跌，中石油跌超1%。光伏太阳能股走弱，福莱特玻璃跌超6%； 创新药概念多数下跌，石药集团跌超10%。 1月30日，是港股市场结束1月行情的最后一个交易日。尽管今日市场出现调整，但恒指月涨幅依旧接近 7%，周四更是创下近4年半来新高。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收27387.11点，下跌580.98点，跌幅2.08%。 恒生科技指数报收5718.18点，下跌122.92点，跌幅2.10%。 展望后市： 中信证券认为，2025年四季度导致港股下跌的业绩预期调整和资金面扰动已告一段落。展望2026年2 月，港股业绩预期已有显著调整，叠加内外部资金面的扰动因素也已告一段落，该行判断港股2025年12 月下旬以来的春季行情或将延续，整体呈现春节前大盘 ...

2026.01. 30 本文字数：1224，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 郭霁莹 1月以来，全国经历多轮阶段性强寒潮天气，"冷暖转换"频繁导致用电负荷多次突破历史度冬负荷极 值。随着春节假期临近，国内迎峰度冬能源保供迎来关键时期。 国家能源局电力司副司长刘明阳1月30日介绍，入冬以来，华北、西北、东北3个区域电网，和新 疆、西藏等14个省级电网负荷累计86次创历史新高。另外，受大范围寒潮天气影响，1月19日至21 日，全国最大电力负荷连续三天创冬季新高，首次突破14亿千瓦，1月21日最高达14.33亿千瓦。 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 为确保迎峰度冬全国能源电力平稳有序供应，国家能源局给出四点保供方案：在责任落实上，推 行"一省一策"细化落实各项措施，优化电网方式安排并强化省间余缺互济；监测预警方面，密切跟踪 天气、负荷与供需形势变化，对线路台 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices rose significantly this week, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced US crude oil production, decreased US crude oil inventories, and a falling dollar index. However, the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged, and the rebound height of oil prices may be limited without clear production cut signals or significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4]. - The overall valuation of the chemical sector has increased due to rising crude oil prices. PX supply is expected to ease, and PTA may face inventory accumulation in February. PTA prices are expected to oscillate at a high level following the cost side [4]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been alleviated, but the medium - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets have strengthened, but their supply - demand has turned loose, with limited upward momentum and a risk of correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, Brent crude oil reached $70/barrel. Tensions in the Middle East and concerns about potential supply disruptions, along with reduced US production and inventory, and a falling dollar, supported oil prices [4]. - OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increase from January to March 2026, but the long - term increase trend remains. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute 1.2 million barrels per day of production growth in 2026 [4]. PX & PTA - PX load remained unchanged, with processing fees stable at around $350/ton. Supply is expected to be looser in the future, and attention should be paid to terminal restocking [4]. - PTA plant inventory decreased slightly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level with the cost side [4]. - As of Friday, the PTA spot market price was 5,290 yuan/ton, up 241 yuan/ton from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.83%, unchanged from last week. Factory inventory days decreased by 0.04 days to 3.58 days [16]. - PTA processing fees were 416 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from last week. The price increase was mainly due to the strong support of PX prices [16]. MEG - Domestic ethylene glycol synthesis gas plants are undergoing spring maintenance, and the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors has boosted its valuation, reducing supply pressure [5]. - Port inventory reached 812,000 tons, but imports are expected to decline in February due to overseas plant shutdowns. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - As of Friday, the ethylene glycol price in East China was 3,814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.50%, up 0.44% month - on - month [25]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene market has strengthened, but the supply - demand has turned loose, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 69.28%, down 0.35% month - on - month. Both factory and port inventories have increased, but the inventory pressure has been alleviated [38]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 81.81%, down 1.81 percentage points from last week. The production and capacity utilization rate declined significantly due to pre - holiday plant maintenance [30]. - The开工 rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises was 42.41%, down 8.79% from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 6.70 days, down 0.85 days from last week, and the average finished - product inventory level was 28.79 days, up 0.48 days from last week [30].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (1.19-1.23) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡运行，尾盘走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.28美元，周涨3.48%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 65.44美元，周涨1.93%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至449.8元/桶，周涨2.51%。周内前期，伊朗通过镇压平息了抗议活动，此前特朗普推迟军 事行动的发言也降低了美国军事打击这一主要产油国并扰乱其供应的风险，投资者对美伊局势持观望态度导致油价承压。除地缘局势外，供应 方面，哈萨克斯坦最大油田因电力故障停产，供应减少支撑油价，而对委内瑞拉原油封锁仍在继续，美方已 ...

或受美国总统特朗普加大对伊朗军事威胁消息影响，国际油价连涨三天冲破了四个月高点。 从近期盘面表现来看，1月29日，国际油价收涨超3%，布伦特原油价格收于70.71美元/桶，突破70美元大关。 分析师认为，长期来看，今年的油价仍然存在下调压力。 "最近油价的涨势超出了大家的预期，业内此前并没预判到能涨这么多。"隆众资讯原油分析师李彦今天在接受第一财经记者采访时直 言。 截至1月30日第一财经记者发稿，国际油价有小幅下调，WTI美国原油价格下调1.941%至64.15美元/桶，布伦特原油价格下调1.897%至 68.25美元/桶。 中银国际分析，短期内国际油价面临关税政策与OPEC+增产的压力，但地缘风险溢价、OPEC+的干预能力以及全球需求韧性有望支撑油 价底部；另外，宏观层面的不确定性或将加大油价的波动水平。 李彦认为，主要因素是市场对美伊局势的担忧，由于地缘因素扰动了情绪，业内担心未来原油供应可能出现问题。而次要因素有两个， 一是前段时间的寒潮天气确实导致美国原油的产量下降，另一个是哈萨克斯坦前段时间由于停电故障，部分油田暂时停产，也对油市产 生了影响。 宏观层面，据摩根大通报告，占据哈萨克斯坦近一半产量的 ...