Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector, anticipating that the sector will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [61]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in an inflationary environment, the agricultural sector tends to yield excess returns, with historical data showing that periods of CPI exceeding 3% have led to significant gains in the agricultural sector [19]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the agricultural sector due to recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which are expected to stimulate demand and support price recovery [19][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Inflation Expectations Rising - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted towards promoting a reasonable price recovery, with measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio from 10% in August 2024 to 9% in May 2025 and reducing the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.8% to 1.4% [7][8]. - Despite a recent decline in CPI due to fluctuations in food and energy prices, core CPI has shown positive changes, indicating underlying inflationary pressures [10][13]. 2. Swine Farming: Weak Price Fluctuations, Profits for Cost-Effective Producers - Swine prices have shown a downward trend but are expected to stabilize with policy guidance suggesting a price recovery in the second half of the year [23][27]. - The report notes that self-breeding operations remain profitable, although profits have been shrinking recently, while external piglet purchases have led to losses [31][33]. - Major pig farming companies have improved their profitability due to cost reductions, with companies like Wen's Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods showing significant profit recovery [38]. 3. Planting: Policy Expectations & Demand Improvement, Grain Prices Gradually Recovering - Corn prices have rebounded significantly due to increased demand from recovering pig farming and strong performance in the corn processing industry, with average prices rising from 2,197 CNY/ton in Q1 2025 to 2,322 CNY/ton in April and May [46]. - Wheat prices are also expected to rise due to increased procurement by state reserves and rising corn prices, with the average price for wheat in Q1 2025 at 2,410.83 CNY/ton [50]. - The report indicates that soybean prices have slightly decreased due to the arrival of imported soybeans, but the market is expected to stabilize as supply conditions improve [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp [4][5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Live pigs, cotton, sugar, logs [2][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The MPOB report has limited impact on oils and fats, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical resistance. The protein meal downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, with spot prices weaker than the futures. The bullish sentiment for corn/starch is rising, and the 09 contract has broken through the previous high. The pork reserve purchase has temporarily boosted the market sentiment for live pigs. The strength of commodities has driven up the price of rubber, while synthetic rubber has changed little and followed the rebound. The macro - environment affects the sentiment of pulp commodities, and pulp maintains an oscillating trend. The fundamentals of cotton have changed little, and the macro - level has released positive news to boost the futures. The sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the log futures are experiencing a decline due to strong delivery games [1][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports in May were higher than expected, and inventory was slightly lower than expected. May production was 1.7716 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 3.94%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25.85% and a year - on - year increase of 0.64%; inventory was 1.9902 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.68% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5% [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and an improvement in the good - to - excellent rate, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday, with palm oil being weaker. The market is focused on Sino - US trade negotiations, the US dollar weakened, and crude oil prices continued to rise. The cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and there is still great uncertainty in US biodiesel and foreign trade policies. The soybean planting progress in the US has reached 90%, and the good - to - excellent rate is 68%. In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas will be normal, and the temperature is expected to be high in mid - June. A large number of imported soybeans are arriving in China, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to rise. The MPOB report on palm oil has limited impact, and the short - term production increase pressure may weaken marginally. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high and the supply is sufficient [4]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the oils and fats market may operate within a range. Recently, there may be a rebound demand for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper technical resistance [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 10, 2025, the international soybean trade basis quotes for US Gulf soybeans were 226 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 7.62% and a year - on - year change of - 20 cents per bushel or - 8.6957%; for US West soybeans, they were 199 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 8.74% and a year - on - year change of - 54 cents per bushel or - 22.7848%; for South American soybeans, they were 180 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 12 cents per bushel or 7.14% and a year - on - year change of - 6 cents per bushel or - 3.4483%. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 34.17 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 20.49 yuan per ton or 149.78% and a year - on - year change of - 74.08 yuan per ton or - 84.412% [4]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, and the precipitation and temperature in the next 15 days will be slightly high. Although the drought in June is not a major problem, it is expected to intensify in the quarterly outlook. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the spot and basis trading volume has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of spot prices. The oil mill's profit margin has increased month - on - month. It is expected that the soybean arrivals will increase in the next few months, the oil mill's operating rate will remain high, the soybean meal inventory will increase seasonally, and the basis will be under seasonal pressure. The downstream soybean meal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the downstream has become more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The year - on - year increase in the inventory of breeding sows indicates that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [4]. - **Outlook**: Before weather speculation, US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating trend within a range. Under the dominance of increasing supply pressure in China, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis will continue to be weak. The soybean meal futures will follow the US soybeans to operate within a range [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 30 yuan per ton. The average domestic corn price is 2,391 yuan per ton, with a price increase of 12 yuan per ton and an expanding increase [4]. - **Logic**: The wheat minimum purchase price policy has been launched in Henan over the weekend, which has continuously boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. The import of grains has been continuously tightened, and the expectation of inventory reduction is gradually being realized. The fundamental situation shows that the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants this morning is 116, remaining at a low level. The demand for new corn from downstream feed - using enterprises is limited, but there is still rigid demand for corn in some egg - laying hens, young poultry, and pig feed. Futures prices have continuously risen, which has in turn boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. In the medium term, the import of grains has been continuously tightened, further confirming the expectation of inventory reduction [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Corn and starch are expected to operate with a bullish bias [5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Industry Information**: On June 10, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.01 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week change of 0.79%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13,595 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 0.89% [5]. - **Logic**: After the recent rapid decline in pig prices, the pig - grain ratio has decreased. On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased, which has boosted market sentiment. However, the current inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals remain loose. In the short term, the slaughter weight of live pigs has decreased, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has significantly increased. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets from January to April 2025 has continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase in the third quarter. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level, and the inventory of breeding sows in May has continued to increase month - on - month in the sample points of Steel Union and Yongyi. The terminal consumption has entered the off - season, and the slaughter demand has decreased. The average slaughter weight has decreased month - on - month [1][5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is weak, and in the long term, the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term market is under pressure to sell, and the far - term market is affected by the expectation of inventory clearance and production capacity adjustment, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 13,740 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber is 13,800 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan. The STR20 spot in the free trade zone is 1,715 US dollars, up 5 US dollars. The price of glue entering the dry - glue factory in Yunnan is 13,000 yuan, unchanged; the price of rubber blocks is 12,600 yuan, unchanged. On June 10, the raw material market quotes in Thailand's Hat Yai showed that the price of white sheet rubber was 63.66 baht, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 67.88 baht; the price of glue was 56.25 baht, up 0.25 baht; the price of cup lump was 46.2 baht, up 1 baht. According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million units in May this year, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail sales volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [5][6]. - **Logic**: Driven by the strength of commodities, the rubber price has increased, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals have changed little. On the supply side, Thailand is still affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has started to decline under the drag of the futures. On the demand side, the overall recovery of tire production is weak, and the finished - product inventory backlog has been slightly alleviated, but there is still no obvious improvement. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the futures may temporarily stabilize and have a slight rebound [6]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the fundamentals of rubber are still weak, and the impact of the commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is relatively large, and the downward trend may continue [6]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber standard delivery products from two major oil companies are as follows: the market price in Shandong is 11,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Yantai Haopu is 11,400 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of butadiene in the central Shandong region is 9,450 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan; the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangyin is 9,100 yuan per ton, down 175 yuan [5]. - **Logic**: The futures followed the broader market to rise slightly yesterday, but the fundamentals have changed little recently. The current futures price has returned to the previous low and the absolute low since listing. The BR fundamentals are relatively neutral, and most private production enterprises have started to reduce production, which may help alleviate the subsequent social inventory pressure. The butadiene market is operating weakly, but the tight supply of spot resources has gradually supported the market sentiment. As the price declines, the phased buying in the market has gradually followed up, and the premium transaction of auctioned goods has boosted the replenishment enthusiasm of middlemen, providing short - term support [7]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the support of the futures after the butadiene price stabilizes. The BR futures are expected to temporarily stabilize, but there is still pressure on the upside [7]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the number of registered warrants in the 2024/2025 season is 10,815. As of June 9, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,520 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan per ton week - on - week [7]. - **Logic**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen for three consecutive trading days. The fundamentals have changed little, and the market sentiment has been boosted by positive macro - news last week. In the new cotton planting season, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase year - on - year. If there is no extreme weather, the cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season may remain high or even reach a new high, with the market generally expecting it to be around 7 million tons. On the demand side, the downstream production has been stable since the beginning of the year until before the Dragon Boat Festival, and cotton consumption has been rapid. However, since June, the downstream demand has gradually entered the off - season, the enterprise operating rate has decreased, and the finished - product inventory has gradually accumulated. On the inventory side, the cotton inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and the commercial inventory is lower than that of last year and the five - year average, which may support the price [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, it is expected to oscillate on the weak side [7][8]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan per ton week - on - week [9]. - **Logic**: The market has advanced the trading of the expectation of a loose global sugar supply in the 2025/2026 season. In the new season, Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The new sugar - making season in Brazil's central - southern region has started, and although the production data as of the first half of May has declined year - on - year, the market's optimistic expectation for the total output remains unchanged. China's 2024/2025 sugar - making season has ended, with a high sales - to - production ratio, a year - on - year decrease in industrial inventory, and a low import volume, but there will be subsequent arrival pressure [9]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected loose supply in the new season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the decline of the external market has led to a downward shift in valuation, and the sugar price is oscillating weakly [9]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, on the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong is 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Maples is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Silver Star is 6,150 yuan per ton, unchanged. The price of Golden Fish is 4,120 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Logic**: Currently, the pulp supply - demand situation is as follows: the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and there are rumors of maintenance and production conversion for Russian softwood pulp, so the price difference between Russian softwood pulp and other softwood pulps may return to the normal historical level. The continuous production pressure of hardwood pulp is emerging, the US dollar price is continuously decreasing, and the domestic downward space has been opened. The overseas shipment is abundant, and the domestic arrival volume of hardwood pulp is generally high. The demand side is generally weak. In the short term, there are news of strikes and pulp mills' price - holding in the supply side. The previous month's futures rebound was mainly due to the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is now approaching the end. Excluding this factor, the overall pulp supply - demand is weak, and the abundant supply of hardwood pulp suppresses the hardwood pulp price, and the weak demand. The decline in the hardwood pulp price negatively affects the softwood pulp price through the price difference between soft and hard pulp. In the future, due to the weak supply - demand, the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline. The pulp futures are priced based on Russian softwood pulp, and the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts and the production conversion of Russian softwood pulp will continue to drive the futures to resist decline [10]. - **Outlook**: Due to the conflict between the weak supply - demand situation, which is negative for the single - side market, and the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is positive for the futures, the pulp futures are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 770 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter. The LG2507 log futures contract closed at 772 yuan per cubic meter, with a basis of - 2 yuan in Jiangsu and - 22 yuan in Rizhao [11]. - **Logic**: Since June, the fundamentals of logs have weakened, and the short - term supply is still accumulating, with the spot price still under pressure. In the futures market, the main log

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,384.82, down 0.44%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,162.18, down 0.86% [4] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The report highlights an increase in share buybacks among brokerages, with six firms having repurchased a total of 129 million shares for 1.31 billion yuan as of June 5. This reflects management's confidence in their company's value and aims to optimize capital structure [7] - The average price-to-book ratio for the securities industry is currently at 1.33x, which is at the 38.20% percentile since 2018, indicating a certain level of value in the sector [7] - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms in the capital market will clarify the development paths for the industry, with brokerages focusing on mergers and acquisitions to enhance capital quality [7] Chemical Raw Materials Sector - The new materials sector saw a slight increase, with the New Materials Index rising by 0.77%, although it underperformed compared to the ChiNext Index [8] - The report notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to encourage the use of green electricity, which is expected to drive the wind power installation market [10] - The wind power sector is projected to see new installations of approximately 105-115 GW in 2025, with a significant portion coming from onshore wind [10] Agriculture Sector - The report indicates a decline in pig prices, with average prices in key provinces dropping by 3.15% to 3.46% as of June 6. The average pork price fell by 1.11% [11] - The report expresses optimism about the operational outlook for Haida Group, citing potential growth from its overseas feed business and a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices [11] - The report emphasizes that the current cycle in the pig farming industry may lead to a prolonged profitability period, contrary to market pessimism [11]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights that Haiguang Information (688041.SH) is a core player in the domestic computing chip sector, while Zhongke Shuguang leads in server systems. Their merger will create a closed-loop layout for the computing industry chain, maximizing resource utilization and enhancing industry competitiveness. The projected net profits for Haiguang Information from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at CNY 2.956 billion, CNY 4.314 billion, and CNY 6.153 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 111.7X, 76.5X, and 53.6X based on the closing price on June 10, 2025 [2][9][10] - Beike-W (2423.HK) is recognized as a leading integrated real estate transaction service platform, with significant advantages in real estate brokerage. The company is expected to benefit from policy support for market recovery, with projected EPS for 2025 to 2027 at CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11, corresponding to PE ratios of 28.7X, 24.8X, and 21.5X. The report gives a "recommend" rating for the stock [2][11][12] Group 2: Company Overview - Haiguang Information is a leading high-end processor design company in China, having developed various high-end processor products widely used in data centers across telecommunications, finance, and internet sectors. Zhongke Shuguang is a leading enterprise in high-end computing, focusing on high-end computers, storage, and data centers. The merger will enable Haiguang Information to achieve a closed-loop layout from high-end chip design to high-end computer systems, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry [8][9][10] - Beike has established a robust position in the real estate brokerage market, with a significant market share in both existing and new home transactions. The company’s "true housing source" standard and ACN network address service quality issues, creating a unique competitive advantage. The projected total transaction volume for 2024 is CNY 3.3 trillion, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [11][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - The computing industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on domestic chip production and intelligent computing infrastructure. The merger of Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to accelerate the localization of the computing industry in China, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the sector [8][9] - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, supported by policy measures. Beike's diversified business model, including home decoration and rental services, positions it well for future growth. The company is expected to leverage its brokerage strength to drive growth in its ancillary services [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, and commodity sectors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics. The overall sentiment varies across different markets, with some expected to be bullish, some bearish, and others in a state of oscillation. For example, the bond market is expected to go bullish, while the iron ore market is expected to remain weak [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May NFIB small business confidence index was 98.8, higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. If the tariff issue eases, gold may continue to fall; if it worsens, the upside is limited. Short - term gold is expected to be weak with a risk of correction [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The market believes the probability of a successful Sino - US trade negotiation is low. The bond market is expected to go bullish in July. There are two possible paths for the bullish trend, and the first path is more likely. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [16][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The leaders of China and South Korea had a phone call, emphasizing strengthening cooperation. The A - share market tumbled on June 10th, and the market's expectation for the Sino - US talks has deteriorated. Due to high valuation levels, the market will be more volatile. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan and the US are arranging a meeting between their leaders. Trump defined the Los Angeles riots as a "foreign invasion", which may intensify the situation in the short - term. The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Mexico are close to an agreement on steel tariffs. The Sino - US trade negotiation is reported to be going well. TSMC's May revenue increased year - on - year. The market is optimistic about the negotiation results, but there is still a risk of disappointment. It is not recommended to chase the high [29][30][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Abiove maintained Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts but lowered the price forecast. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US talks. Domestic demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the Sino - US talks and the USDA monthly report, and expect the futures price to oscillate [33][34][35]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the northern ports was stable on June 10th. The coal price is temporarily stable due to downstream replenishment and upstream supply control, but it may decline again in summer. The growth rate of thermal power consumption has not increased significantly in June, and the risk of new energy substitution should be watched [36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Zhengzhou will suspend the subsidy application for consumer goods trade - in of home appliances. The iron ore price is expected to remain weak due to weak sentiment in the industrial products market and seasonal pressure, but the decline may be gentle [37][39][41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian officials called for an increase in the minimum sugar price. India is expected to have sugar production surpluses for at least two consecutive years. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. The international sugar market supply is increasing, and the domestic market may be affected by imports. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate weakly [42][43][44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Heavy rain in East China may suppress the demand for building materials. The Sino - US trade negotiation is unclear, and the steel price is oscillating. The demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Aonong Biological's hog sales in May increased year - on - year, while New Hope's executives plan to reduce their shareholdings. The hog market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the short - term futures price may be weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and look for short - selling opportunities on significant rallies [48][49][50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weak. Although the futures price rebounded, the spot price is still weak. The supply is shrinking, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is recommended to treat the current situation as a rebound and wait and watch [51]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic module project was announced. There are some market rumors about polysilicon production, but the actual situation is different. The supply in June is expected to increase, and the market is currently in a stalemate. It is recommended to take a short - term short and long - term long approach [52][53][54]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry refuted the rumor of equity transfer. Some silicon plants in Sichuan are resuming production, while those in Yunnan are still waiting. The demand is weak, and the price is close to the cash cost line. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply changes [55][56]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Zambia invites automobile manufacturers to set up factories in copper - mining areas. Rio Tinto reaffirmed its copper production guidance for 2025. The LME copper inventory is changing. The short - term macro - factors have a neutral impact on copper prices, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. It is recommended to wait and watch [57][59][60]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount on June 9th. The supply of lead has decreased marginally, while the demand is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate widely in June, and it is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and look for long - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount on June 9th. The zinc market is expected to show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in June. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the accumulation of put options. The mid - term strategy is to do an internal - external positive arbitrage [64][65]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL announced the mass production of 587Ah cells. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected. The market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [66][67]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA lowered the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026. The US API crude oil inventory decreased slightly. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 67.67 yuan/ton on June 10th, slightly down. The CEA price is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the market is expected to be oversupplied in 2025. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation [71][72]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is strong, and the market negotiation is okay. The demand is in a seasonal off - season, while the supply is increasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [73][74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price. The styrene price rebounded, mainly driven by cost and capital. The pure benzene supply may decrease marginally in July. It is recommended to consider the potential of pure benzene as a chemical allocation [75][76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable on June 10th. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract of caustic soda may be limited in its downward space due to the large discount [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market increased slightly. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export and domestic prices are mostly stable. The industry has high supply pressure, but the processing fee is close to the historical low. Some large factories plan to reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market in China was slightly stronger. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's soda ash production is normal. The soda ash market is weak and stable, with high supply and low demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [86][87][88]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable on June 10th. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was weak. With the coming of summer and the rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the price may continue to fall. The short - term futures price may be affected by market sentiment [89].

Group 1 - The "Credit Assistance for Agriculture" initiative was launched in Wuhan, allowing farming enterprises to secure loans without collateral, with a total of 35.4 million yuan granted to four companies [1] - Wuhan Tianjian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. received a credit agreement of 10 million yuan, aiming to expand its annual pig production from 500,000 to 1 million within three years, increasing its output value from 1.2 billion yuan to 2.8 billion yuan [1] - The "Two Agriculture Credit Loan" evaluates farmers' creditworthiness based on various factors, generating a scoring system that categorizes them into four levels (A, B, C, D) for loan eligibility [1] Group 2 - The initiative aims to transform dormant rural resources into assessable credit capital through data enhancement, facilitating a new credit evaluation system for agricultural operators [2] - The program includes a month-long policy promotion and service connection effort in Huangpi District, one of the first ten pilot areas for the "Two Agriculture Credit Loan" [2] - The Wuhan Rural Commercial Bank introduced the "Two Agriculture Credit Loan" product, allowing customers to apply for loans online by filling out basic information on a dedicated platform [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant growth in sales volume, with many companies reporting double-digit year-on-year increases in sales of pig-related products, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2]. Sales Performance - In May, several companies reported substantial increases in sales volume, with some exceeding 150% year-on-year growth. For instance, Muyuan Foods sold 6.406 million pigs, up 30.42% year-on-year; Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.1554 million pigs, an increase of 32.64%; Zhengbang Technology sold 638,600 pigs, up 158.02%; and Tangrenshen sold 482,800 pigs, up 47.69% [1][2]. - Other companies like Kemin Foods and Dabeinong also reported double-digit growth in sales, with Kemin's subsidiary selling 48,300 pigs, up 23.06%, and Dabeinong selling 386,300 pigs, up 17.99% [2]. Production and Cost Management - Muyuan Foods attributed its sales increase to improved production efficiency and operational planning, while Wens Foodstuff cited increased piglet production and demand for piglets as contributing factors. Zhengbang Technology noted a gradual recovery in its business as a reason for its sales growth [2]. - Despite positive year-on-year comparisons, some companies saw a decline in sales compared to April, indicating a mixed performance in the short term [2]. Slaughter Volume and Market Outlook - The average daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises increased to 149,100 pigs in late May, reflecting a recovery in terminal consumption driven by pre-festival stocking demands. However, slaughter volumes are expected to decline post-festival [3]. - The industry anticipates a decrease in pig prices due to rising temperatures affecting weight gain and initiating inventory reduction actions. Nevertheless, the slow growth in the number of breeding sows may provide a buffer against supply pressures in the medium term [3]. Cost Control - Muyuan Foods reported a decrease in pig farming costs to approximately 12.2 yuan/kg in May, down nearly 0.2 yuan from the previous month, attributed to improved production performance. The company aims to achieve a cost target of 12 yuan/kg through technological innovation and refined management [3][4]. - Wens Foodstuff reported a comprehensive cost of 6 yuan/lb for pig farming in April, while New Hope indicated a current cost of 12.9 yuan/kg, with expectations for further reductions by year-end [4].

Group 1 - Jinzhai Food's innovative upgraded products have entered the Pang Donglai system, with good sales performance reported [1] - Meta's CEO Mark Zuckerberg is forming a new AI team aimed at achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and plans to invest over $10 billion in Scale AI [2] - TianKang Bio reported a 19.95% year-on-year decline in pig sales revenue for May, totaling 345 million yuan, with a sales volume of 229,700 pigs [3] Group 2 - Trina Solar's Chairman Gao Jifan stated that the proportion of solution business will increase to over 50% in the next two to three years [3] - SpaceX's revenue is projected to reach $15.5 billion this year, according to Elon Musk [4] - VinFast reported a 296% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle deliveries in Q1, totaling 36,330 vehicles, with a net loss of approximately $712 million [4] Group 3 - Bubble Mart has registered dozens of trademarks related to the "labubu" series, covering various categories including education and entertainment [4] - Hangzhou Oxygen Yiju Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. completed a Series A financing round of 50 million yuan, aimed at developing negative oxygen ion release technology [6] - "Bo Te Ding Dong" completed a 20 million yuan angel round financing, focusing on optimizing AI routing algorithms and expanding market coverage [7] Group 4 - "Longxing Hangdian" successfully completed a Series A++ financing round of 100 million yuan, with participation from various investment institutions [8] - "Photon Leap" announced the completion of a 100 million yuan angel round financing, focusing on AI imaging algorithm development [9] - Meituan launched its first AI Coding Agent product, NoCode, aimed at simplifying programming tasks [10]

猪价下行趋势依然延续 图片来源：摄图网 近日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）创始人王宁家族身家超越牧原股份（002714）的秦英林家族，登顶"河南新首富"。 原因除了泡泡玛特风光无限、股价蹭蹭上涨以外，也与牧原股份股价踌躇不前有关，这背后反映的是两个行业景气度的冰火两重天，前者因核心IP Labubu在全球范围内火热而备受瞩目，后者则依然受制于生猪价格不断下行。 牧原与泡泡玛特2024年初以来的股价走势及区间涨幅对比 来源：Choice数据 此外，牧原股份5月底还递交了H股上市申请的资料，距离港股上市又近了一步。 01 2022年至2024年，牧原股份收入分别为1248.26亿元，1108.61亿元、1379.47亿元，净利润分别为149.33亿元、-41.68亿元、189.25亿元。 2025年一季度，牧原股份实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比+37.26%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润44.91亿元，归母扣非净利润为45.09亿元，同比均大 幅扭亏为盈。 可以看出，牧原股份的业绩波动较大。这和生猪养殖行业作为强周期行业有关。 2021年中至最新全国大中城市生猪出场价格走势 来源：Wind 即使抛开2019 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has submitted an application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise at least $1 billion, which raises questions about the company's financial needs and future growth strategies [1][26]. Company Overview - Founded by Qin Yinglin, Muyuan Foods started with 22 pigs and has grown into a leading player in the pig farming industry, often referred to as the "pig king" [2]. - Despite a decline in the "pig king" status in recent years, the company's move to list on the Hong Kong market presents new opportunities and challenges for its development [2]. Industry Context - The pig farming industry is characterized by a cyclical pattern known as the "pig cycle," which involves fluctuations in prices and production levels over a four-year period [3]. - This cycle leads to significant volatility, causing many companies to struggle with profitability during downturns [3]. Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods has experienced a significant rebound in its financial performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 137.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, a dramatic turnaround from a loss of 4.26 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 519.42% increase [6][10]. - The company's pig output surged from 40.26 million heads in 2021 to 71.60 million heads in 2024, making it the largest pig farming enterprise globally [7][8]. Market Position - Muyuan Foods holds a 5.6% share of the global market and a 10.2% share in the domestic market, contributing to an increase in industry concentration [8]. - The company's reliance on pig farming is evident, as this segment accounts for over 90% of its revenue, with revenues from pig farming reaching 119.74 billion yuan in 2022, 108.22 billion yuan in 2023, and 136.23 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. Cost Structure - Feed costs have consistently represented around 60% of total costs, limiting the company's ability to control expenses [12]. - Labor costs and depreciation have been rising, with employee salaries increasing by 28% despite a 5% reduction in workforce, and depreciation expenses rising by 27% over three years [13][14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to use part of the $1 billion raised from the IPO to enhance its liquidity and support its supply chain development in overseas markets [19]. - Muyuan Foods aims to leverage its advanced farming technologies and disease prevention systems to improve efficiency and productivity in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [20]. Global Market Outlook - The global pig farming market is expected to grow steadily from $1.5 trillion in 2025 to $1.6 trillion by 2030, with China maintaining a significant share [15]. - Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, presents substantial growth potential due to its high demand for pork and low industry concentration [15][17]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, with total liabilities reaching 110.11 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.68% [10]. - The pig farming industry is also susceptible to disease outbreaks, which can severely impact production and market stability [21][22]. Conclusion - Muyuan Foods' IPO is a strategic move to navigate current challenges and position itself for future growth in the global pig farming industry, testing its capabilities in capital management and risk control [26].