大家想过没有？在股市赚钱靠什么，其实"拿住"比什么都重要。只是，大多数人最缺乏就是耐心，他们觉得赚钱就是必须天天盈利，几天不赚钱就心慌了。 说白了，绝大多数人都是普通的上班族，股市投资与上班最大的区别就是你要忍受很长时间的亏损，不赚钱的时间，也是老板与员工的区别，承受煎熬也是 一种本事…… 1、这个位置，指数的问题有限了 不要觉得会跌到3800点，4000都很难破，这个位置的指数就是反复震荡向上，今年还会创新高，只是大家的股票与指数其实关系有限。 其实，目前的A股也好，港美股也罢都没有主线了，我们必须受市场的混沌期，这个时间节点很容易亏损，特别是3~4月份最难了。 不要去追主线，科技资产在高位你不相信就去长线持有，不过短线博弈没有问题了，小凡与大家的区别就是持有市场遗忘的科技指数等到924行情了，并不 是什么我会埋伏主线。 接下来，等待主线的切换，不会简单的切换，科技资产还会拉升出货，不过在拉升之前需要砸盘出上涨空间，比如大幅回调40~50%，之后可以翻倍拉升， 白酒、新能源、半导体、医疗等上一轮主线也是如此，连银行股都中途大幅回调过。 3、这个位置，必须有自己的交易计划。 小凡，对指数很乐观，而且自己的交易 ...

2025年是白酒行业近年来承压最明显的一年。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-12月，我国白酒（折65度，商品量）累计产量为354.9万千升，累计下降12.1%，行业迎来连续第九年产量下滑。根据2025年 10月31日智通财经《多家白酒企业前三季业绩"失速"：茅台净利增长6% 有公司称行业调整将持续一段时间》的报道，2025年1-9月全国规模以上白酒企业产 量为265.50万千升，同比下降9.90%。 渠道库存压力成为行业普遍痛点。中国酒业协会与毕马威联合发布的《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，2025年上半年，58.1%的经销商反映库存持 续增加，价格倒挂现象加剧，800-1500元价格带酒类产品价格倒挂最为严重。这种库存压力直接反映在行业运营效率上：根据2025年8月28日中国酒业新闻 网《酒业如何穿越弱周期，构建寒冬期的生存与破局之道？》的报道，行业平均存货周转天数已达900天，同比增加10%，部分中小企业甚至超过180天。 2026年春节旺季前，茅台批价回升提振了市场信心，但白酒市场动销复苏分化明显。头部白酒企业凭借品牌优势率先实现经营企稳，多数中小品牌仍通过降 价促销的方式消化库存。 20 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands and stable growth for mass-market products, while mid-range products face pressure [2] Group 1: High-End Market Performance - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January and February 2026, leading to price increases [3] - As of February 21, 2026, the wholesale price of Moutai reached 1,700 RMB per bottle, up 10 RMB from the previous day, indicating a significant recovery from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [3] - Moutai's sales performance is strong, with distributors achieving 35%-40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, and sales growth of 10%-20% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Other High-End Brands - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual payment plans by February 11, 2026, although sales growth varies by region [4] - The price of Wuliangye's mainstream product has increased from 760 RMB to a range of 780-800 RMB per bottle since the beginning of the year [4] Group 3: Mid-Range and Mass Market Trends - Mid-range brands are experiencing sales slowdowns and market share pressures, with some products seeing declines of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [5][6] - Mass-market products are showing resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption, with brands like Gujinggong and Shanxi Fenjiu performing well [6][7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with younger consumers favoring brands in the 100-300 RMB price range, leading to increased sales in larger supermarkets compared to smaller stores [7] - The demand for Guojian series liquor from Jinshiyuan has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, replacing traditional gift items [7] Group 5: Post-Festival Market Outlook - Despite strong sales during the Spring Festival, the liquor industry may face demand decline post-holiday, with potential inventory buildup and price corrections anticipated [8] - The long-term outlook suggests that many liquor businesses may exit the market, leading to a supply of discounted products [9] Group 6: Broader Consumption Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional customers, with a significant portion of participants in a survey indicating they included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [10]

公募资金通过两大路径布局：其一，2026年以来已有8只消费主题基金成立，合计募集规模超70亿元，单只最高募集 14.65亿元；其二，多家基金经理通过加仓、新进方式布局新老消费标的，部分基金单只标的持仓市值超5亿元，四 季度已完成对潮玩、白酒、珠宝等细分领域的布局调整。 市场波动中，仅看涨跌表象易陷入决策困境，唯有穿透数据追踪交易行为的核心特征，才能清晰把握市场运行脉 络。 一、拉升调整中的行为信号 开年以来，消费板块结束长期低迷，迎来系统性回暖。新消费领域，潮玩、黄金类标的开年累计涨幅分别突破 30%、接近20%；传统消费赛道，白酒龙头开年上涨近8%，部分区域酒企涨幅超25%。伴随板块升温，消费主题基 金业绩同步上扬：2026年以来，约200只相关基金平均收益率超3%，13只收益率突破10%，最高两只收益率均在17% 以上。 传统分析框架下，股价拉升后的调整常引发判断分歧：是短期回踩还是趋势反转？经验依赖与主观猜测易导致决策 偏差，量化数据则直接呈现交易行为的核心特征。 某标的在快速拉升阶段出现调整，此前相似调整后曾出现强势涨停，仅依托走势经验易倾向于继续持有。但通过量 化大数据追踪，关键行为特征清晰显现：在 ...

最近看到不少人在聊春节前上市公司分红的事，这两个月里有235家公司拿出真金白银回馈股东，总金额超3400亿，比去年同期还多，后面还有公司要跟 进。很多朋友说，这说明市场基本面越来越扎实，相关板块肯定值得关注。但我想起去年一位同事的经历，他当时盯着消费提振的政策，觉得调整了一阵的 白酒板块肯定要起来，结果一则突发消息让他措手不及，亏了不少才醒悟——我们总以为消息能决定走势，却忽略了最核心的东西。 一、为什么"意外波动"总防不胜防？ 很多人遇到市场突发变化，都会归结为"黑天鹅"，觉得完全防不胜防。就拿去年的白酒板块来说，当时大家都盼着消费政策落地，对调整后的板块充满期 待，结果一则消息让板块走势急转直下，不少人都懵了，觉得毫无预兆。但事后用数据复盘才发现，所谓的意外其实早有信号。 看图1： 图里的橙色柱体是反映机构资金交易活跃程度的「机构库存」数据，它只代表机构资金有没有积极参与交易，和买卖方向无关。从图里能看到，早在板块出 现几次反弹时，「机构库存」就已经没有活跃迹象，甚至年初那波反弹结束后，机构就不再积极参与交易了。这时候不管消息面看起来多利好，没有资金的 持续参与，板块走势自然会走弱。我们之所以觉得是意外， ...

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye Group held its 2025 annual work summary conference, summarizing achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan and outlining the development blueprint for the 15th Five-Year Plan, while also recognizing outstanding individuals and teams [1][3]. Group 1: Achievements and Strategic Goals - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, Wuliangye effectively implemented government strategies, aiming to build a "world-class liquor enterprise" and successfully enhanced its comprehensive strength and industry position [3][5]. - The company faced challenges such as the pandemic and economic downturn but managed to maintain steady growth in its core liquor business and upgrade its non-liquor sectors, laying a solid foundation for future development [7]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on historical classic industries and emerging pillar industries, emphasizing high-quality development and aiming to enter the Fortune Global 500 by the end of 2030 [7][8]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas for 2026 - In 2026, Wuliangye will prioritize five key areas: innovation in liquor and its supporting industries, optimization of non-liquor sectors, enhancement of corporate governance, strengthening of party leadership, and ensuring safety and environmental protection [8]. - The company aims to stabilize high-quality development, create new engines for growth, and solidify its governance framework to support its strategic objectives [8]. Group 3: Recognition and Awards - The conference recognized 17 special contribution teams, 65 advanced collectives, 65 party building pioneers, 29 production experts, 44 marketing leaders, 12 technical leaders, and 67 management excellence individuals [10].

上市企业：贵州茅台（600519）,五粮液（000858）,洋河股份（002304）,泸州老窖（000568）,山西汾酒 （600809）,古井贡酒（000596）,水井坊（600779）,舍得酒业（600702）,酒鬼酒（000799）,老白干酒 （600559） 2020-2025年中国白酒(折65度，商品量)产量统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国白酒行业市场现状分析及投资前景规划报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国白酒(折65度，商品量)产量为37.6万千升，同比下降19%； 2025年1-12月中国白酒(折65度，商品量)累计产量为354.9万千升，累计下降12.1%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the integration of Wuliangye into the cultural celebration of the Chinese New Year through its participation in the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, showcasing its brand and cultural heritage to a global audience [3][10][25]. Group 1: Brand Engagement and Cultural Integration - Wuliangye served as the exclusive interactive partner for the Spring Festival Gala, distributing 100,000 gifts to families across China, thereby enhancing its brand visibility and cultural significance [3][10]. - The Spring Festival Gala featured a 7-minute segment focused on Yibin, showcasing the city as the "First City of the Yangtze River" and highlighting Wuliangye's cultural roots [4][9]. - The main stage of the Yibin segment symbolized the city's spirit and Wuliangye's ambition as an industry leader, reinforcing the brand's identity [6][9]. Group 2: Consumer Interaction and Digital Engagement - The interactive segment allowed viewers to participate in a lottery for various prizes, including a limited edition 1.5L Wuliangye zodiac wine, enhancing consumer engagement during the gala [12][14]. - The event saw a significant increase in participation, with 153 million interactions, a 22% rise from the previous year, and 764 million views on the central video platform [16][17]. - Social media discussions around the event reached over 1.25 billion views, indicating strong consumer resonance with the brand's messaging [17]. Group 3: Strategic Developments and Brand Positioning - Wuliangye's flagship store opened on the first day of the new year, serving as a cultural landmark and a center for product display and consumer experience [18][20]. - The flagship store's design reflects the brand's origins and aims to connect consumers with the rich history of Chinese liquor culture [20][22]. - Wuliangye's initiatives, including collaborations with travel experiences and cultural sites, aim to create immersive brand experiences that resonate with consumers [22][25].

大年初三，终于不用喝酒了！说几句掏心窝的观点。 整个春节，AI概念又火了，明确自己观点，我依旧看好人工智能是主线，要不然也不会重新布局恒科，节前连恒医都又建仓了，它们都是人工智能逻辑， 科技目前只有一条主线，就是人工智能，就像前几年是新能源。 1、白酒，大多数人不要参与。 不过，地产消费能源这些，可能会在今年反转，后面还有2~3年的行情。说白了，投资的成长性是股价的位置，并不是业绩，因为业绩好的科技公司已经10 倍了…… 问问自己，如果你也年少有为，你想不想买豪车载着心爱的姑娘兜风。大年初二，你想不想开着豪车，提着茅台、拉菲、和天下等去岳父母家拜年。 快乐消费，情绪消费有时候比物质的本身更重要，不要说面子，人赚钱是为了什么，如果只是满足温饱的生存，刚需，性价比，你不用那么拼！ 2、消费，本来就是没办法交流的事情。 消费股的逻辑其实就是消费的逻辑，你的认知与消费能力，决定你的参与的逻辑，我不觉得普通散户远离地产消费能源这些是错，毕竟科技股的机会更多， 股票的数量更多。 无论什么筹码都是有人赚有人赔，你觉得没有行情的白酒地产，去年也有朋友在里面赚了几十点，别人做自己擅长的筹码，其他并不关心。你觉得你的工作 不行， ...

大年初三茅台酒价格再次上涨！！ | | 2 月 19 日茅台行情价 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 18日 | 19日 | 涨跌 | | 26年飞天原箱 | 1740 | 1750 | +10 | | 26年飞天散瓶 | 1690 | 1700 | +10 | | 25年飞天原箱 | 1750 | 1760 | +10 | | 25年飞天散瓶 | 1700 | 1710 | +10 | | 24年飞天原箱 | 1770 | 1770 | 0 | | 24年飞天散瓶 | 1710 | 1720 | +10 | | 24年飞天大箱 | 1730 | 1730 | O | | 23年飞天原箱 | 1850 | 1850 | O | | 23年飞天散瓶 | 1800 | 1800 | 0 | | 22年飞天原箱 | 1910 | 1910 | 0 | | 22年飞天散瓶 | 1880 | 1880 | 0 | | 21年飞天原箱 | 1950 | 1950 | 0 | | 21年飞天散瓶 | 1910 | 1910 | 0 | | 20年飞天原箱 | 2080 | 208 ...