证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260326 油价上涨对我国出口影响几何 2026 年 03 月 26 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：近期伊朗冲突的持续发酵对全球大类资产造成了明显的扰 动，引发了市场的广泛关注，而相对被忽视的一点是持续高企的油价对 我国出口方面的潜在冲击。原油作为工业生产的底层基础能源以及国际 货运的重要能源，其价格中枢的系统性抬升必然会对各国生产和外贸造 成显著冲击，最终对我国全年出口造成影响。根据我们的测算，在一定 前提下，原油价格上涨对我国出口呈现"U 型"影响，即在 80 美元/桶 和 120 美元/桶两种原油价格水平下，我国 2026 年出口增速将录得 1% 左右，而在 100 美元/桶的情形下，可能会使 2026 年我国出口录得小幅 负增长。值得注意的是，由于我国原油储备充足且对外部能源依赖度明 显降低，因此即使油价上涨造成全球贸易收缩，我国较其他经济体相比 受到的冲击会明显较小。 ◼ 原油价格上涨对全球贸易的影响体现在需求端和供给端两个维度： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant surge in oil and energy-related funds in the A-share market during March 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and market speculation [3][10]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Oil and energy funds, particularly the Jiashi Oil LOF (160723.SZ), saw a remarkable monthly increase of 97%, nearly doubling in value [4]. - Other notable performers included the Yifangda Oil LOF (161129.SZ) and the Southern Oil LOF (501018.SH), with increases of 84.7% and 77.7% respectively [5]. - Broader oil and gas ETFs also performed well, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF from Fuguo (513350.SH) rising by 41.4% and Jiashi's S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159518.SZ) increasing by 36.75% [8]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in these funds is attributed to macro geopolitical events and concentrated market speculation, particularly concerning the global oil supply chain facing challenges due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East [11]. - The uncertainty in supply has led to heightened anxiety in the international oil market, driving prices up and consequently boosting the net asset values of related LOF and ETF products [11]. Group 3: Market Risks - Investors looking to buy into these oil LOFs face risks not only from oil price volatility but also from extreme market distortions due to high premium rates [12]. - The trading prices of these LOFs and ETFs can significantly exceed their net asset values during periods of extreme market sentiment, leading to potential losses when market conditions normalize [12]. - Historical patterns indicate that high premiums driven by emotional trading can collapse rapidly, resulting in severe price corrections [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market conditions, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical uncertainties, stock market performance, and bond market fluctuations, particularly in the context of interest rates and liquidity [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The financial market is experiencing mixed movements with a decline in the stock market and an increase in oil prices, while the liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [3][5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 224 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 211 billion yuan into the market [3]. - The overnight interest rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.44% [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.83% and fluctuated, reflecting a stable sentiment in the bond market despite geopolitical tensions [5]. - The bond market is characterized by a mixed performance in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.823% and the 1-year bond yield at 1.2425%, showing a change of 21 basis points [9]. - The trading volume for R001 was 66,787.64 billion yuan, with a decrease of 1,377.84 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in short-term funding [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties remain high, particularly with statements from Iran and the U.S. regarding negotiations, which could impact market sentiment and trading strategies [5][6]. - The article notes that market participants are cautious ahead of potential announcements from U.S. officials, which could further influence oil prices and stock market movements [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on global energy markets and China's economic resilience in the face of external shocks [3][4][5][12]. Group 1: Global Energy Market Dynamics - The current global oil market is characterized by an oversupply, with the U.S. transitioning from a major oil importer to a key exporter, which fundamentally alters the dynamics compared to the oil crises of the 1970s [4][8]. - Despite rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, the likelihood of a systemic global economic crisis is deemed low, as the U.S. has gained significant trade surplus and profit from energy exports [8][9]. - The geopolitical conflict has led to increased oil prices, but the underlying supply-demand balance remains favorable, with other oil-producing countries capable of compensating for any short-term supply disruptions [9][10]. Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - China, as the world's largest oil importer, faces input inflation pressures but possesses strong strategic resilience and a robust energy security strategy, including a significant oil reserve capacity that can mitigate supply chain disruptions for up to nine months [12][13]. - The diversification of energy imports and a large domestic market provide China with a degree of pricing power in the global energy market, allowing it to quickly adapt to supply chain challenges [13]. - China's ongoing investments in renewable energy technologies position it favorably in the global energy landscape, aligning with climate goals and enhancing energy security [14][17]. Group 3: Strategic Policy Recommendations - The article emphasizes the need for China to maintain strategic focus and adapt its macroeconomic policies to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape, ensuring stable economic growth amid external uncertainties [16][17]. - Strengthening domestic demand and developing self-sufficient supply chains are critical for enhancing the economy's resilience against external shocks [17].

中东局势难言降温。 今日，国际油价直线拉升，截至发稿，WTI原油期货大涨超4%，布伦特原油期货大涨超3%。消息面上，据央 视新闻最新报道，一艘名为"ALTURA"号的土耳其油轮在距离伊斯坦布尔海峡15英里的黑海海域遭无人机袭 击。另外，伊朗方面称，对以色列方向发起导弹打击，这是当天的第二轮导弹打击行动。 与此同时，关于伊拉克石油减产的消息也持续扰动能源市场。伊拉克能源部门官员表示，由于霍尔木兹海峡陷 入事实性封锁状态，伊拉克无法通过该海峡出口原油，仓储空间告急，因此不得不减产石油，该国南部主要油 田的产量暴跌八成。 一油轮遭袭 消息面上，据央视新闻，一艘名为"ALTURA"号的土耳其油轮在距离伊斯坦布尔海峡15英里的黑海海域遭到无 人机袭击。 据了解，该油轮当时正载有14万吨原油从俄罗斯出发，目的地是土耳其。袭击引发了剧烈爆炸，导致船只的驾 驶台等上层建筑受损，机舱部位进水。 在收到该油轮发出的紧急求救信号后，土耳其海岸安全总局已紧急派遣海岸警卫队以及综合应急救援船赶赴现 场进行处置。据悉，船上共载有27名土耳其籍船员，目前暂无人员伤亡报告。 另外，伊朗方面当地时间3月26日称，对以色列方向发起导弹打击，这是 ...

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a collective adjustment, with A-shares falling over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.08 points, down 1.09% [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw significant declines, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.89% to 24856.43 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 3.28% [2][3] - The Nikkei 225 Index in Japan decreased by 0.27%, while the South Korean Composite Index fell by 3.22% [3][4] Oil Prices - International oil prices rose again, with ICE Brent crude reaching over $100 per barrel, currently reported at $99.66 per barrel, and WTI crude above $90 per barrel [5][6] - The increase in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent drone attack on a Turkish oil tanker in the Black Sea, which has raised concerns about supply disruptions [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The raw material pharmaceutical stocks saw a strong rally, with companies like Meinuohua and Sitai Li hitting the daily limit, and Hongyuan Pharmaceutical rising approximately 8% [8] - The price increase in chemical products, driven by rising oil prices and higher energy costs, is expected to lead to a price hike in raw pharmaceutical materials, benefiting the sector [11] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery concept stocks showed active trading, with Haike Xinyuan rising over 16% and Zhongrui Co. increasing by over 10% [13][14] - Zimbabwe's extended ban on lithium exports is expected to impact global supply, as the country is a significant source of lithium for China, potentially leading to price increases in lithium products [15] Company Specifics - Huadian Liaoning Energy's stock experienced a significant rise, achieving a 9-day consecutive limit up, but closed with a 6.47% increase amid concerns about stock price volatility [17][19] - The company has confirmed that its production and operational activities remain normal, with no significant changes in market conditions or internal operations [19]

Core Viewpoint - The current energy crisis is deemed to be more significant than the oil crises of the 1970s and the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, posing the greatest threat to global energy security in history [5]. Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) is prepared to release additional strategic oil reserves if necessary, following an agreement among member countries to release 400 million barrels of oil [2]. - The IEA emphasizes the importance of demand-side measures, such as reducing speed limits for vehicles, in addition to increasing supply to address the crisis [4]. - The IEA director noted that at least 40 energy facilities in the Persian Gulf region have been severely damaged, and some may take a long time to repair, indicating that supply disruptions could persist even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend. The main short - position holders of the May contract reduced their positions, providing short - term price support. Northeast corn prices are stable, North China prices are slightly weak with limited downward space, and sales area prices are rising. The 2605 contract of corn fluctuates after the wheat supply policy, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to be volatile. CBOT soybeans rose due to bargain - hunting, while domestic protein meal declined. Factors such as weak US soybeans, falling crude oil, and the China - Brazil agricultural meeting are negative for the market. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Fats and oils are expected to be volatile. BMD palm oil fell to a two - week low due to falling crude oil and other fats. The domestic fats and oils market is weak, following the decline in import costs. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs are expected to be volatile. The 2605 contract of eggs rose slightly. Spot prices are mostly stable, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with the lower limit of the range rising due to cost support [1]. - For the pig market, the description is the same as that of corn, with short - term price support from the reduction of short - positions in the May contract, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Wednesday, corn reduced positions and adjusted. The main short - position holders of the May contract left the market, supporting short - term prices. Northeast corn prices are stable, North China prices are slightly weak, and sales area prices are rising. Technically, the 2605 contract fluctuates after the wheat supply policy, and short - term participation is recommended [1][2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to bargain - hunting, while US soybean meal fell. The domestic protein meal continued to decline, affected by factors such as weak US soybeans, falling crude oil, and the China - Brazil agricultural meeting. Spot market prices continued to fall, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Fats and Oils**: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell to a two - week low. The domestic fats and oils market is weak, following the decline in import costs. Spot market is dull, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, egg futures fluctuated, and the 2605 contract rose 0.26%. Spot prices are mostly stable. After a continuous rise, the supply still pressures the egg price, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with the lower limit rising [1]. - **Pigs**: The description is the same as that of corn, with short - term price support from the reduction of short - positions in the May contract, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Military actions against Iran by the Israeli Defense Forces will continue for at least three more weeks, with thousands of targets remaining [2]. - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2]. - In 2026, China will strengthen the bottom - line thinking and monitor and regulate the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China is 17187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons; the number of ships at ports is 110, a decrease of 2 [3]. - The rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February is mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking fundamental support [3]. - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to buy Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve [3]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, energy and fertilizer prices soared, and the price of the urea futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% compared with before the attack [3]. - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels, while the Kurdistan region refuses to resume exports [4]. - Bahrain Aluminium Company has started phased production cuts due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 54.80 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons compared with March 5 [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [9][13][15][17][23].

Group 1: Oil Price Impact - The escalation of the Iran situation in February 2026 has led to a significant disruption in global oil prices, affecting commodity markets and monetary policy[1] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drastically reduced oil tanker traffic, impacting 20% of global oil consumption and creating a core negative factor for oil supply[2] - The current oil price fluctuations are driven by geopolitical conflicts rather than conventional supply-demand cycles, marking a severe challenge for the global energy market since the 1970s[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to raise the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 0.34 percentage points directly, with a secondary analysis indicating a 0.13 percentage point increase[3] - The anticipated rise in PPI due to oil price increases suggests a likelihood of PPI turning positive in March 2026, with projections indicating a potential increase of 0.5% to 1.3%[3][26] - Fixed asset investment has a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.80%, while retail sales and exports show monthly year-on-year growth rates of 0.90% and 39.60%, respectively[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The rise in oil prices has altered the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, leading to a shift in the monetary policy landscape[3][29] - Following the increase in oil prices, industrial metal prices such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have experienced declines, complicating the overall market dynamics[3][33] - The copper-oil ratio has shown significant volatility, indicating a revaluation of asset prices in response to the changing economic environment[2][22]

最关键的变量在发生变化！ 当地时间3月25日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在接受伊朗国家媒体采访时表示，中国、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、伊拉克、 印度、孟加拉国等国船只安全通过了霍尔木兹海峡。 另据路透社报道，三位知情人士周一透露，世界最大石油出口商沙特阿美公司将在4月份连续第二个月削减对 亚洲买家的原油供应，此前美国和以色列与伊朗的战争扰乱了经由霍尔木兹海峡的贸易。 据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间3月25日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在接受伊朗国家媒体采访时表示："美国迫使伊朗展 示对霍尔木兹海峡的掌控权——美国以为伊朗在虚张声势，以为伊朗没有勇气做这种事，但伊朗做到了。美国 动用了全部能力来阻止，但失败了。" 阿拉格齐重申，"霍尔木兹海峡并没有完全关闭，只是对敌人关闭。该地区是战区，没有理由允许敌人及其盟 友的船只通过。对于伊朗的友好国家，或者基于其他原因伊朗决定提供通行便利的情况，霍尔木兹海峡都是可 安全通行的——中国、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、伊拉克、印度、孟加拉国等国船只都安全通过了霍尔木兹海峡。" 此外，沙特阿美计划下月减少对亚洲买家的原油出口，消息人士称，该生产商4月份只向长期客户供应从红海 延布港出口的阿拉伯轻质原油，导致亚洲炼油厂 ...