1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - shares are oscillating narrowly at a high level, with hotspots rapidly rotating. The index is approaching the predicted neutral point, and market sentiment is exuberant [14]. - The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the downward - revised Q1 GDP and increased economic downward pressure [18]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term, and copper prices may be supported by macro factors and show a slightly stronger oscillating trend [4][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Collins believes it may be too early to cut interest rates in July, and the baseline outlook is to resume rate cuts later this year. Gold lacks upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction [10][11]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors should be aware of correction risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued a plan to improve the social credit repair system, and the third batch of consumer trade - in funds will be released in July [13][14]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump hopes Congress can pass the tax reform bill before July 4. The US Q1 GDP was downward - revised, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [16][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, but the Q1 GDP was downward - revised. Market sentiment is high, but there are still concerns about economic data and tariff negotiations [20][21]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase the high as the US stock market has factored in a lot of optimistic expectations [22][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentine soybean sales may stagnate in July due to the expiration of the tax - cut policy. US soybean export sales are better than expected. Domestic soybean meal prices have fallen, and trading volume is average [24][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. Focus on US soybean growing area weather and Sino - US relations [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.83% from June 1 - 25. The oil market is oscillating and waiting for new data [27]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to continue oscillating in the short - term. It is recommended to operate within the range and not to short when the bottom support is strong [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazilian port sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from August 1, which may support sugar prices [28][31]. - Investment advice: The external sugar market is weakly consolidating. Zhengzhou sugar may have limited rebound space and may fall after the July contract is delivered [32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly this week, but rebar inventory decreased slightly. Steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short - term [33][34]. - Investment advice: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy when the price rebounds [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn and corn starch consumption in starch sugar products increased slightly this week. The opening rate of starch enterprises decreased slightly, and inventory decreased steadily. The CS09 - C09 spread decreased [36]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see as the factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Spot prices are stable with an upward trend, while futures are weak [37][39]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. Consider shorting the November and January contracts when the new - crop situation is clearer [39]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The metal market shows a cautiously bullish sentiment. India plans to take measures to deal with copper supply risks. Macro factors support copper prices in the short - term, and inventory changes should be focused on [39][43]. - Investment advice: Copper prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term. Adopt a bullish strategy. Wait patiently for arbitrage opportunities [43]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi plans to build a 1.4GW BC component factory in Indonesia. The polysilicon market is still under pressure, with falling prices and limited production cuts [44][45]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to focus on the PS08 - 09 positive spread opportunity due to high unilateral investment risks [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased this week. There are rumors of production cuts and restarts. The price increase may face resistance [47][48]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price of industrial silicon rebounds [48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is in a contango. A zinc smelter in Peru went on strike, and domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Zinc prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term but face an oversupply situation in the medium - term [49][51]. - Investment advice: Reduce or stop losses on previous short positions in the short - term. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - sentiment fades. Consider positive spread arbitrage [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng's first shipment of lithium concentrate from Mali set sail. The low price attracts some pre - season stocking, and there may be a short - term price rebound [53][54]. - Investment advice: Avoid short positions. Consider the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The nickel market is facing an oversupply situation, and nickel prices may be affected by the price of nickel ore [55]. - Investment advice: The short - term up - and - down profit - loss ratios of nickel prices are not good. Consider short - selling when the premium of nickel ore drops significantly [56]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China decreased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [57][58]. - Investment advice: Wait and see the demand after the increase in the release of civil LPG in East China [59]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration issued 215 million green certificates in May. The demand for green certificates is increasing, and they are evolving into financial assets [60]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [61]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable. Supply is stable, and demand is average. The downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. - Investment advice: The spot price of caustic soda is gradually weakening, but the downward space of the futures price is limited [62]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and the demand from downstream paper mills was weak [63][64]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak [64]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder was narrowly adjusted, and the futures price oscillated. The trading volume was low [65]. - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals change little in the short - term [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises decreased slightly. The domestic supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, but the export quota may affect the market [67][69]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to potential policy changes regarding export quotas [69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate of PTA was slightly adjusted. Supply decreased slightly this week and is expected to increase in the medium - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PTA price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term [72]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable with some slight decreases. The industry plans to cut production in July, which may relieve supply pressure [73][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin of bottle chips when the price is low [76].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-687578 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. For example, the stock index is strong due to the improved macro - situation, while the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and capital interest rates. Precious metals are influenced by geopolitical events and Fed's attitude towards interest rates. Different commodities in the futures market also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and rose throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.30%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, important meetings were held, and a grand celebration for the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was announced. Overseas, Trump criticized the Fed's interest - rate policy, and Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 24, A - share trading volume increased significantly. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the current basis rate of the main contracts, with relatively stable support below the index and the need for a driving force for upward breakthrough, it is recommended to try a covered combination strategy on the CSI 1000 variety [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [6]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, and MLF was incrementally renewed. The market sentiment was relatively stable, and the end - of - quarter capital fluctuations were expected to be controllable [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the bond market is under short - term pressure, the overall pattern may remain strong. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to economic data and capital trends, and consider positive arbitrage and curve - steepening strategies [8][9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and Fed Chairman Powell was cautious about interest - rate cuts. Precious metals tumbled during the session but recovered some losses at the end of the session [10][13]. - **Future Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but in the short term, it lacks a clear driving force and faces risks. Silver is supported by factors such as the recovery of the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, but the upward drive is weakened. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options on gold and try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options on silver [13][14]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of June 24, shipping companies' prices varied. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of major economies reflected the demand situation [15]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to closely observe the shipping company's quotes in late July [16]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, but the premium decreased, and the overall trading was average [17]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium is controversial, and the Fed's economic outlook is moving towards "stagflation", which restricts the upward and downward space of copper prices [18][21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the production of refined copper increases, and the "rush - to - export" demand continues, but it may overdraw future demand. The inventory situation is complex, with COMEX inventory accumulating and domestic inventory slightly decreasing [19][20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [21]. Alumina - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production increased in May, and the inventory situation is complex. The market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [22][23]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the downstream start - up rate is under pressure, and the inventory decline rate slows down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of the recycled aluminum alloy market are both weak, but the demand side is more prominent. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [26][27]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of zinc ingots increased, but the market trading was dull [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, the demand is weakening, and the low inventory provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 [28][30]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of tin increased, but the trading was cold. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][33]. Nickel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in a range [34][35]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of stainless steel decreased [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range [37][39]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading did not improve significantly [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is relatively high, the demand is stable but difficult to boost in the off - peak season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price is stable, and the basis has weakened. The price is expected to weaken again in the off - peak season, and it is recommended to try short positions or sell out - of - the - money call options [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder has changed slightly, and the futures price has fluctuated. The demand for iron water is high, but there is a risk of weakening in the off - peak season. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in the range of 670 - 720 [47][48]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weakly stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is affected by environmental protection and other factors, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short - term buy on dips and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [49][52]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is close to the bottom. The supply is tightening marginally, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [53][56]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [57][58]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is difficult to stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [60][62].

文字早评 2025/06/25 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.15%，创指+2.30%，科创 50+1.79%，北证 50+3.65%，上证 50+1.16%，沪深 300+1.20%， 中证 500+1.62%，中证 1000+1.92%，中证 2000+2.22%，万得微盘+2.72%。两市合计成交 14146 亿，较上 一日+2920 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、伊朗和以色列已同意在 24 小时之内分阶段 "全面停火"，停火于周二开始，这场"持续 12 天的战 争"将正式结束。 2、央行：将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划，出台深化运用金融科技推动金融数字化智能化转型的 政策文件。 3、商务部将组织开展 2025 年千县万镇新能源汽车消费季活动，活动时间为 2025 年 7 月至 12 月。通知 指出，各地要认真落实汽车以旧换新政策，在新能源汽车消费季活动场地内普遍设置汽车以旧换新专区， 更好满足县乡地区群众多样化购车需求。 资金面：融资额+42.24 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.30bp 至 1.370%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.40bp 至 2.8716 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 25 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 伊以冲突，对能源化工品影响几何？ 伊朗石油&炼厂 我们估算 360 万桶产量=150 万桶原油出口（主要到中国）+80 万桶成品油 出口+130 本土消费。炼厂加工量约 210 万桶/天，新闻中起火的有油库和炼 厂，其中德黑兰炼厂能力 22.5 万桶/天。 首先，针对油田目标袭击，不如针对油库炼厂来的方便，类似俄乌也是对成 品油出口影响大于原油。其次，如果伊朗原油出口受影响，中国地炼油源或 将受损失。 天然气、LPG 和化工品 2022 年伊朗发电 85%靠天然气，天然气主要是南帕斯生产。伊朗的 LPG 基 本来自南帕斯，且 LPG 出口主要到中国，中国进口 LPG 有 27%来自伊朗。 中国进口伊朗甲醇、乙二醇分别占总进口量的 59%和 4%。 对以色列来说，袭击南帕斯气田效率非常高，对伊朗电力系统和民众的影响 力大。那么首先 LPG 潜在影响最大；其次气头的甲醇和乙二醇也有一定潜 在影响；第三对伊拉克电力系统也有潜在影响。 霍尔木兹海峡 2023 年霍尔木兹海峡的石油通过量 2090 万桶/天，占全球石油液体消费量 20%左右。沙特和阿联酋拥有少量绕过霍 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货：A 股低开高走， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.30%. The production is expected to increase slightly, while the demand pressure is gradually increasing, and the pessimistic expectation drives the market to weaken first [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 88,450 lots and an open interest of 78,183 lots, a net increase of 10,054 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The expectation of concentrated production cuts has failed. The weekly production is expected to enter a stage of slight month - on - month increase. The terminal photovoltaic demand is expected to fall to about 40GW, and the inventory has been increasing since April. There is no positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period [4] 3.2 Market News - As of June 23, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The transaction price range of N - type re -投料 was 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon was 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 33,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.90%. There was no bulk transaction of P - type polysilicon [5]

Group 1 - The company is exploring new paths for green development and accelerating its progress towards intelligent manufacturing [2] - The new PTMEG 08 unit has achieved a significant reduction in product color to below 10, marking a substantial improvement compared to the PTMEG 07 unit [2] - The company is actively engaging in technical exchanges in the new materials sector, focusing on the characteristics of Spandex 2.0, which offers advantages such as increased spinning speed and reduced production costs [2] Group 2 - The company is shifting from merely selling products to providing solutions, aiming to optimize product quality while maintaining cost advantages in the TPU industry [3] - Technical exchanges with Lianyungang Du Zhong New Ao Spandex Co., Ltd. have highlighted the need for innovation and lean management in the face of structural adjustments in the Spandex industry [3] - The company is committed to optimizing its industrial structure and enhancing its competitiveness in the energy chemical and liquid chemical logistics sectors [3]