在上周引起市场剧烈波动后，美国总统特朗普周一宣布，不会对进口金条加征关税。当天国际金价震荡走低超2%，创近三个月来最大跌幅。与此同时，对 黄金的避险需求因俄乌停火前景而减弱，投资者也在密切关注事关9月美联储降息的最新美国通胀报告及依然不明朗的全球贸易形势进展。 72小时市场巨变 纽约商品交易所近月黄金期货合约周一重挫近2.5%，盘后失守每盎司3400美元，创今年5月以来最大跌幅。 上周五（8日），美国海关和边境保护局表示，向美国供应1公斤金条和100盎司金条时使用的正确海关编码为7108.13.5500，而不是7108.12.10。然而，美国 政府在4月份仅将后一种代码列入排除在特定国家进口关税之外的产品清单中，这意味着进口金条将被征税对等关税。 消息传出后，纽约商品交易所12月黄金合约飙升至创纪录的每盎司3534.10美元。相比之下，伦敦现货价格徘徊在3400美元左右。由此产生的溢价一度接近 130美元极为罕见，表明现货和期货市场之间的正常定价关系严重失衡。当天晚些时候，白宫宣布打算在不久的将来发布一项行政命令，澄清关于金条和其 他特种产品关税的错误信息，金价随后基本回吐涨幅。 据报道，上周末包括瑞士在内的 ...

特朗普 据《华尔街日报》报道，美国总统特朗普的芯片关税政策可能会扰乱全球电子产品贸易，推高各种商品价格。但有一点看起来不太可能实现让美国高端芯片 制造业重现繁荣。 上周，特朗普威胁对"芯片和半导体"征收100%关税，但同时提出豁免条件。根据特朗普的说法，那些承诺"在美国制造"的公司将免缴此关税。 尽管措辞含糊，但这一政策表面看来合乎逻辑。既然关税的目的是促使企业在美国增加生产，那么当它们真的这么做时，理应获得豁免。 该投的已投了 但问题是，全球主要芯片公司其实早已在美国投资建设生产线，这在一定程度上得益于拜登政府此前发放的补贴。为了获得关税豁免，其他科技巨头很可能 会选择投资高端芯片制造以外的领域。 例如，台积电正在菲尼克斯以北建设芯片工厂，这些项目是其对美投资1650亿美元的一部分。韩国三星电子也在得州投资建设价值400亿美元的芯片工厂。 类似的投资案例还有很多。 这些芯片制造商很可能会凭借这些巨额投资获得关税豁免。但如果真是这样，特朗普最新的关税政策就难以激励他们继续扩大在美国的业务。相反，这种激 励措施可能会促使他们仅在美进行足够的投资以安抚政客，然后进口所需的其他产品，尤其是考虑到在美国生产的成本要高 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据报道，分析人士表示，美国总统特朗普提出对所有进入美国的芯片征收约100% 的关税、但对在美生产芯片的企业给予豁免的计划不太可能推动芯片制造业大规模回流美国。 一方面，台积电(TSM.US)等行业巨头已经在投入数十亿美元在美国建设工厂，部分原因是早前的政府 补贴。相关的这些项目将有资格获得豁免，从而减少了这些企业进一步扩产的新动力。 另一方面，高昂的生产成本仍是一大障碍。例如，台积电估计，其美国业务的毛利率将下降2—3个百分 点，且所生产的芯片为相较于中国台湾工厂的旧一代产品。 虽然关税可能会推动更广泛的本土制造，但业内观察人士认为，美国芯片投资的驱动力仍将更多来自 《芯片与科学法案》(Chips Act)补贴、税收优惠、供应链韧性以及地缘政治考量，而非关税政策本身。 有专家指出，这些关税可能对依赖进口零部件的电子企业影响更大。例如，苹果(AAPL.US)已经通过承 诺在美国投资6000亿美元(其中大部分与芯片制造无关)避免了新增成本。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palantir has become the most expensive company in the S&P 500 index, with analysts estimating that it needs to generate $60 billion in annual revenue to reach a reasonable valuation, significantly exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $4-5.7 billion [1][8]. Group 1: Valuation Concerns - Analysts express concerns over Palantir's valuation bubble, with more than twice as many analysts rating the stock as a sell or hold compared to those giving a buy rating [6][10]. - The company's stock price has surged nearly 2500% since its IPO in 2021, leading to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 245, making it the most expensive in the S&P 500 [5][7]. - Analysts estimate that Palantir must achieve $60 billion in revenue over the next 12 months to align its valuation with peers, a figure that is much higher than Wall Street's projections for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 [4][8]. Group 2: Growth Potential - Bullish investors are betting on Palantir's long-term growth potential, similar to the trajectories of other major tech companies [11]. - Some analysts acknowledge the valuation concerns but continue to hold the stock due to its growth potential, with expectations of maintaining a 50% annual growth rate and profit margin over the next five years [8][13]. - The company is seen as a must-hold stock by some portfolio managers, who are wary of falling behind in relative performance [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of President Trump's proposed chip tariffs on the global electronics trade and the challenges in reviving the U.S. high-end chip manufacturing industry [1]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Company Responses - Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors includes exemptions for companies that commit to manufacturing in the U.S. [1] - Major chip companies have already invested in U.S. production lines, partly due to subsidies from the Biden administration, which may lead them to invest in non-high-end chip manufacturing to qualify for tariff exemptions [2]. - Companies like TSMC and Samsung are making significant investments in U.S. chip factories, with TSMC investing $165 billion and Samsung $40 billion [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Costs and Technology - The higher manufacturing costs in the U.S. remain a core issue for foreign chip manufacturers, with TSMC projecting a 2-3 percentage point decline in overall gross margins due to increased production costs in the U.S. [3]. - TSMC's U.S. factories utilize older technology (N4 process) compared to its more advanced processes available in Taiwan, indicating a technological gap [3]. - The advanced chip manufacturing sector is dominated by a few companies, including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, with Intel facing significant challenges and uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Impact on Non-Chip Companies - The chip tariffs may have a more significant impact on electronic companies that do not manufacture chips, as they rely on imported components, leading to potential losses [4]. - Apple successfully obtained tariff exemptions by committing to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over four years, which may not directly correlate with advanced chip manufacturing [4]. - Apple's investments in U.S. manufacturing, including its role as a major customer for TSMC's Arizona factory, do not necessarily drive the growth of the domestic chip industry [4]. Group 4: Non-Tariff Considerations - Despite the tariff implications, chip manufacturers have strong reasons to invest in the U.S., including benefits from the CHIPS Act and geopolitical considerations [5]. - The rising costs associated with tariffs and U.S. production will ultimately be borne by American consumers and various supply chain participants [5]. - Factors such as avoiding supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks are becoming more significant motivators for companies to invest in U.S. chip manufacturing rather than tariffs [6].

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock price has surged nearly 2500% since its IPO in 2021, making it the most expensive company in the S&P 500 with a projected P/E ratio of 245, driven by rapid AI application growth, government contracts, and strong recent earnings [1][3] Valuation Concerns - Analysts express concern over Palantir's high valuation compared to peers, with estimates suggesting the company needs to generate $60 billion in revenue over the next 12 months to align with industry valuation standards [3][4] - Current revenue expectations for fiscal year 2025 and 2026 are significantly lower, at $4 billion and $5.7 billion respectively, indicating a substantial gap between expectations and reality [4] - Analysts warn that if Palantir fails to meet high expectations, it could lead to a decline in stock price, similar to Tesla's recent performance [4][5] Bullish Sentiment - Some investors remain optimistic about Palantir's long-term growth potential, likening it to the trajectory of other tech giants like Netflix, which once had a much higher P/E ratio [6] - Despite valuation concerns, certain portfolio managers view Palantir as a must-hold stock to avoid underperformance relative to peers [6][7] - Piper Sandler raised its target price for Palantir from $170 to $182, maintaining a buy rating based on expectations of continued growth and high free cash flow margins [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has seen its stock surge, leading to a historic market capitalization, raising concerns about its high valuation and the need for sustained growth to justify it [1][4][5] Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Palantir's stock has increased nearly 2500% since its IPO in 2021, with a year-to-date rise of about 150% driven by AI applications and strong government contracts [1] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 245, making it the highest valued company in the S&P 500, compared to Nvidia's P/E of 35 [1] - Analysts express concerns about Palantir's valuation, with a significant number rating it as "sell" or "hold," indicating a growing unease among Wall Street professionals [5][8] Group 2: Future Growth Expectations - Analysts estimate that Palantir needs to achieve $60 billion in revenue over the next 12 months to align its valuation with peers, significantly higher than the projected $4 billion for fiscal 2025 [4] - To reduce its future P/E ratio to 30, Palantir must maintain a 50% annual growth rate and a 50% profit margin over the next five years [5] - Despite high valuations, some investors continue to hold the stock, fearing they might miss out on potential future gains [4][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Comparisons - The sentiment around Palantir reflects a broader trend in the tech industry, where high valuations are often justified by strong growth narratives, similar to Netflix's past performance [6] - Analysts from Piper Sandler have raised the target price for Palantir from $170 to $182, maintaining an "overweight" rating, citing strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6] - Concerns about high valuations are echoed by multiple analysts, who warn that any failure to meet expectations could lead to significant sell-offs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO of Figma has reignited discussions about IPO pricing and the significant first-day stock price surge, which rose by 333% on its debut, followed by a 27% drop the next day, raising questions about whether this will encourage other startups to pursue IPOs and end the tech industry's "IPO winter" [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Market Dynamics - Successful IPOs are seen as positive signals for the market, with examples like Chime's recent IPO, which saw a 37% increase on its first day [2]. - The current IPO landscape is characterized by a slow pace, with only 18 venture-backed companies going public by June 30, largely due to policy uncertainties and the lingering effects of over-funding in 2021 [3]. - Investors are increasingly looking for companies that can generate at least $200 million in revenue and maintain high growth rates, with a strong emphasis on free cash flow rather than profitability [3]. Group 2: Potential IPO Candidates - Canva is highlighted as a strong candidate for an upcoming IPO, boasting a valuation of $32 billion and annual revenues of $3 billion with a 35% year-over-year growth rate, making it a compelling case following Figma's performance [4]. - Other potential IPO candidates mentioned include Revolut, Midjourney, Motive, and Anduril Industries, with Anduril predicted to be the next tech company to go public due to its alignment with national security interests [6][7]. - Cerebras, a chip manufacturer, is also noted as a potential IPO candidate, although its plans have been delayed due to regulatory concerns [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The surge in Figma's stock price is attributed more to market conditions and retail investor enthusiasm rather than the company's fundamentals, as many investors were drawn to the novelty of a new listing [5]. - The trend of maintaining private status among high-valuation companies like OpenAI, Stripe, and SpaceX is noted, as these companies prefer to avoid public scrutiny while still accessing private capital [6]. - The potential for around 300 other companies to consider IPOs indicates a robust pipeline of candidates looking to enter the public market [7].

1、习近平同俄罗斯总统普京通电话 重要程度：★★★★★ 8月8日，国家主席习近平应约同俄罗斯总统普京通电话。 普京介绍了俄方对乌克兰危机当前形势的看法和俄美最近接触沟通的情况，表示俄方高度赞赏中方为政治解决危机发挥的建设性作用。习近平阐述了中方 原则立场，指出复杂问题没有简单的解决办法。无论形势如何变化，中方都将坚持一贯立场，坚持劝和促谈。 两国元首积极评价中俄高水平政治互信和战略协作，一致同意共同推动两国关系取得更大发展。双方将通力合作，筹备好上海合作组织天津峰会，办成一 届友好、团结、成果丰硕的峰会，推动上海合作组织实现高质量发展。 2、北京五环外购房不限套数 地产新一轮政策开启？ 重要程度：★★★★ 8月8日晚，北京市住房和城乡建设委员会、北京住房公积金管理中心联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，自2025年8月9日起施 行。《通知》明确符合条件家庭在北京市五环外不再限制购房套数。 克而瑞地产研究表示，京沪作为"因城施策"的风向标，预期上海进一步取消限制政策空间打开。去年一线城市购房限制性政策松动调整，除广州全域解除 限购外，京沪深三城市依然保留核心区限购，外围区域有条件放开，但今年 ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.30%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.35% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.09%, France's CAC40 up by 0.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rising by 0.16% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.58% to $64.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.65% to $66.86 per barrel [4] Earnings Reports - The earnings season has seen a significant drop in investor patience, with companies failing to meet Wall Street expectations facing an average stock price drop of 7.4%, compared to the usual 3.2% over the past five years [5] - MP Materials reported Q2 revenue of $57.4 million, an 84% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations, with a significant production increase of 120% for neodymium and praseodymium [10] - Pinterest's Q2 revenue grew by 17% to $998 million, surpassing expectations, but the adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 fell short of the anticipated $0.36, leading to a pre-market drop of over 12% [10] Corporate Developments - Tesla is disbanding its Dojo supercomputer team and shifting from an in-house chip development strategy to external partnerships, marking a significant change in its approach to autonomous driving technology [8][9] - Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger received full support from the board amid calls for his resignation due to alleged conflicts of interest, as he aims to clarify misinformation regarding his background [9] - Toyota and Honda are facing potential impacts of over $12.5 billion from new automotive tariffs, with uncertainty surrounding policy details complicating pricing decisions [11] Industry Trends - The demand for AI chips remains strong, with TSMC reporting a 26% year-over-year revenue increase in July, reflecting accelerated investment in the AI sector [11]