猪价下行趋势依然延续 图片来源：摄图网 近日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）创始人王宁家族身家超越牧原股份（002714）的秦英林家族，登顶"河南新首富"。 原因除了泡泡玛特风光无限、股价蹭蹭上涨以外，也与牧原股份股价踌躇不前有关，这背后反映的是两个行业景气度的冰火两重天，前者因核心IP Labubu在全球范围内火热而备受瞩目，后者则依然受制于生猪价格不断下行。 牧原与泡泡玛特2024年初以来的股价走势及区间涨幅对比 来源：Choice数据 此外，牧原股份5月底还递交了H股上市申请的资料，距离港股上市又近了一步。 01 2022年至2024年，牧原股份收入分别为1248.26亿元，1108.61亿元、1379.47亿元，净利润分别为149.33亿元、-41.68亿元、189.25亿元。 2025年一季度，牧原股份实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比+37.26%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润44.91亿元，归母扣非净利润为45.09亿元，同比均大 幅扭亏为盈。 可以看出，牧原股份的业绩波动较大。这和生猪养殖行业作为强周期行业有关。 2021年中至最新全国大中城市生猪出场价格走势 来源：Wind 即使抛开2019 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has submitted an application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise at least $1 billion, which raises questions about the company's financial needs and future growth strategies [1][26]. Company Overview - Founded by Qin Yinglin, Muyuan Foods started with 22 pigs and has grown into a leading player in the pig farming industry, often referred to as the "pig king" [2]. - Despite a decline in the "pig king" status in recent years, the company's move to list on the Hong Kong market presents new opportunities and challenges for its development [2]. Industry Context - The pig farming industry is characterized by a cyclical pattern known as the "pig cycle," which involves fluctuations in prices and production levels over a four-year period [3]. - This cycle leads to significant volatility, causing many companies to struggle with profitability during downturns [3]. Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods has experienced a significant rebound in its financial performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 137.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, a dramatic turnaround from a loss of 4.26 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 519.42% increase [6][10]. - The company's pig output surged from 40.26 million heads in 2021 to 71.60 million heads in 2024, making it the largest pig farming enterprise globally [7][8]. Market Position - Muyuan Foods holds a 5.6% share of the global market and a 10.2% share in the domestic market, contributing to an increase in industry concentration [8]. - The company's reliance on pig farming is evident, as this segment accounts for over 90% of its revenue, with revenues from pig farming reaching 119.74 billion yuan in 2022, 108.22 billion yuan in 2023, and 136.23 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. Cost Structure - Feed costs have consistently represented around 60% of total costs, limiting the company's ability to control expenses [12]. - Labor costs and depreciation have been rising, with employee salaries increasing by 28% despite a 5% reduction in workforce, and depreciation expenses rising by 27% over three years [13][14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to use part of the $1 billion raised from the IPO to enhance its liquidity and support its supply chain development in overseas markets [19]. - Muyuan Foods aims to leverage its advanced farming technologies and disease prevention systems to improve efficiency and productivity in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [20]. Global Market Outlook - The global pig farming market is expected to grow steadily from $1.5 trillion in 2025 to $1.6 trillion by 2030, with China maintaining a significant share [15]. - Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, presents substantial growth potential due to its high demand for pork and low industry concentration [15][17]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, with total liabilities reaching 110.11 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.68% [10]. - The pig farming industry is also susceptible to disease outbreaks, which can severely impact production and market stability [21][22]. Conclusion - Muyuan Foods' IPO is a strategic move to navigate current challenges and position itself for future growth in the global pig farming industry, testing its capabilities in capital management and risk control [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a slight increase, with the agricultural index rising by 0.91%, ranking 20th among 31 primary industries [5][12]. - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with the average price of pigs at 14.17 CNY/kg as of June 8, 2025, down 0.64% from the previous week [6][16]. - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable yet slight adjustments in prices, with chick prices at 2.90 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices at 3.60 CNY/jin, both showing a decline [30][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 0.91%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% [12]. - Among sub-sectors, planting and agricultural product processing led the gains, while meat chicken breeding and animal vaccine sectors faced significant adjustments [13][14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The pig price is under pressure, with a continued downward trend expected due to strong supply and weak demand [6][19]. - As of June 6, 2025, self-breeding pigs have a profit of approximately 33 CNY per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 121 CNY per head [17][20]. - The breeding stock remains stable, with the number of breeding sows fluctuating between 40-41 million, indicating controlled supply growth for 2025 [19][29]. White Feather Chicken - Chick prices are experiencing slight adjustments, with a focus on domestic breeding due to uncertainties in imports caused by avian influenza outbreaks [30][31]. - The industry is currently well-supplied, and domestic breeding enterprises may benefit from reduced overseas imports [30][31]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, with white sugar priced at 6090 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY from the previous week [33]. - Soybean prices have seen a slight increase, with the Brazilian soybean landed price at 3725 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [33]. - Corn prices have shown minor fluctuations, with an average price of 2336 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY from the previous week [33].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3399.77, up 0.43%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10250.14, up 0.65% [2][6] - The overall market sentiment improved, with over 4100 stocks rising, particularly in the pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors [8][9] Economic Indicators - In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD [15][16] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May fell by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a slight deflationary trend [17][18] Industry Dynamics - Canalys forecasts that the penetration rate of AI smartphones will reach 34% by 2025, driven by advancements in chip capabilities and model efficiency [26] - The Ministry of Transport reported that in May 2025, urban rail transit systems across 54 cities operated 326 lines, with a total operational mileage of 10,978.3 kilometers and a passenger volume of 2.87 billion [28][29] Company Updates - Bohui Innovation (300318.SZ) received a medical device registration certificate for its HPV genotyping test kit, enhancing its product portfolio and market competitiveness [34] - Haizhi Science (002653.SZ) obtained an IND application acceptance notice for its innovative drug HSK47977, aimed at lymphoma treatment, indicating significant development potential [36] - Jingji Zhino (000048.SZ) reported a 8.74% year-on-year decline in pig sales in May, while Shennong Group (605296.SH) saw a 24% increase in the same period [37][39] - Yisheng Co. (002458.SZ) experienced an 11.21% decline in sales revenue from white feather broiler chicks in May, despite a 11.35% increase in sales volume [41][42]

Company Overview - Shandong Bangji Technology Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% equity of six companies, including Shandong Beixi Agricultural Co., Ltd. and Ruidong Agricultural (Shandong) Co., Ltd., along with 80% of the equity of Paistong Livestock Technology Consulting (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [1] - The company was established in April 2007 and is based in Zibo High-tech Zone, specializing in providing professional products for modern breeding farms, including pig premix, concentrated feed, and complete feed [1] Financial Performance - In the years 2022 to 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.658 billion, 1.647 billion, and 2.542 billion respectively, while net profits were 120 million, 83.89 million, and 50.13 million respectively [1] - The company has experienced a situation of "increased revenue but decreased profit" in recent years, attributed to low capacity utilization rates and increased fixed costs due to the gradual production of fundraising projects [1] Industry Context - The feed industry is maturing, with large feed companies extending their industrial chains through alliances and mergers, while some companies are penetrating downstream into the breeding industry [2] - The company is adapting to industry changes by adjusting its business strategy and expanding into new areas, including the acquisition of other feed companies [2] Strategic Moves - The planned acquisition marks the company's entry into the pig fattening industry, with the target company, Ruidong Agricultural, aiming to build modern American-style breeding bases with significant investment [3] - The company has also adjusted its fundraising projects to acquire stakes in other feed companies, indicating a strategic shift towards vertical integration [2] Recent Performance - In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved revenues of 1.076 billion, a year-on-year increase of 160.84%, and a net profit of 28 million, up 37.71%, indicating a recovery in performance [3] - The success of the upcoming acquisition, especially following the recovery of pig prices, will be crucial for the company's revenue growth [3]

Core Points - The company reported a pig sales volume of 156,200 heads in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.44% and a month-on-month increase of 17.63% [1] - As of the end of May 2025, the company's pig inventory stood at 536,400 heads, which is a year-on-year increase of 22.56%, a slight decrease of 0.59% compared to the end of April 2025, and an increase of 4.57% compared to the end of December 2024 [1] - The company is actively optimizing its pig farming capacity by adjusting its farming layout, scale, and breed structure, while continuing to focus on cost reduction and resource concentration to develop advantageous capacity [1] Summary of Business Data - The pig sales volume for May 2025 was 156,200 heads, with a year-on-year increase of 9.44% and a month-on-month increase of 17.63% [1] - The pig inventory at the end of May 2025 was 536,400 heads, showing a year-on-year increase of 22.56%, a decrease of 0.59% from April 2025, and an increase of 4.57% from December 2024 [1] - The company emphasizes a strategy of "stability first and continuous cost reduction" to achieve practical business development goals [1]

Group 1 - The company reported sales of 328,000 pigs in May 2025, with 318,300 being market pigs and 9,700 being piglets, generating revenue of 579 million yuan [1] - For the period from January to May 2025, the company provided sales data for its pig farming business, although specific figures were not disclosed in the provided text [1] - The sales data is based on internal statistics and is unaudited, indicating potential discrepancies with regular report disclosures [1] Group 2 - The pig farming industry faces systemic risks such as significant price fluctuations and animal diseases, which can substantially impact the operational performance of any pig farming producer [2]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the changes in slaughter volumes and pricing dynamics post-Chinese New Year [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increase in Slaughter Volumes**: - Post-New Year, slaughter volumes have increased due to protein product substitution, fresh-frozen conversion, and higher slaughter concentration [1][3]. - Large-scale designated slaughterhouses benefit from the concentration in farming and the development of the industry chain, leading to significant growth in slaughter volumes, while small slaughter points are declining [1][4]. 2. **Weight Management in Livestock**: - Farming enterprises are increasing the weight at which pigs are sold to reduce costs and improve barn utilization, responding to market demand for heavier pigs [1][5]. - Despite attempts to lower weights, the high demand for heavier pigs has led companies to maintain or even increase slaughter weights [5]. 3. **Policy Impacts on Pricing**: - Policies aimed at increasing pig prices have led large farming companies to gradually reduce slaughter volumes and weights, implementing bans on secondary fattening to reduce inventory [1][6]. - The effectiveness of these policies is still under observation, especially given the potential for speculative behavior among smaller farming groups [1][6]. 4. **Secondary Fattening Regulations**: - The secondary fattening ban aims to prevent disease spread and illegal quarantine practices, with some regions beginning to crack down on violations [1][7][8]. - However, loopholes remain, such as the sale of pigs without proper documentation, which complicates enforcement [8]. 5. **Mother Pig Production Control**: - Some farming companies are starting to control the production capacity of mother pigs, gradually reducing their numbers, although the execution of these policies is still being monitored [1][9]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Price Trends**: - The price trends for pigs in the second half of the year are closely linked to the timing of supply adjustments and slaughter weights [1][11]. - The expectation is for prices to be high but not excessively so, with potential losses in breeding profits if prices drop too low [11]. 7. **Investment Sentiment Among Secondary Fattening Groups**: - Secondary fattening groups are expanding their investments based on policy expectations, believing that future demand will drive prices up [1][12]. - However, the accumulation of inventory from this expansion may offset the supply reductions from larger farming companies [12]. 8. **Regional Control and Market Influence**: - Large farming groups in northern regions have shown significant control over prices, particularly following a reduction in mother pig numbers in social groups [1][14]. - The dynamics of supply and demand are shifting, with increased competition from other sources reducing reliance on single companies [14]. 9. **Challenges for Traditional Slaughter Enterprises**: - Head farming enterprises have made significant inroads into the slaughter business, creating pressure on traditional slaughter companies to adapt [1][20][21]. - The integration of farming and slaughtering operations is becoming more common, leading to reduced costs and improved competitiveness [21][22]. 10. **Emerging Trends in Farming Practices**: - The rise of mother pig leasing models is attributed to local policy restrictions, allowing larger farms to circumvent limitations and expand production [1][25]. Additional Important Insights - The overall weight of pigs being sold by leading farming groups is currently around 125 kg, with a downward trend expected as policies take effect [1][23]. - The average weight of pigs in secondary fattening varies by region, with northern areas showing higher weights compared to southern regions [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine farming industry, highlighting the interplay between market dynamics, policy impacts, and operational strategies within the sector.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" for the agricultural sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.03 percentage points during the week of June 3-6, 2025, with the index closing at 2,682.22, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.91% [1][15] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of pigs at 14.05 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.43% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.89% [2] - The poultry sector is seeing stable chick prices but weak adjustments in meat chicken prices due to high inventory levels in downstream slaughtering [2] - In the agricultural products segment, wheat and soybean meal prices are weak, while japonica rice prices have increased [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector index rose by 0.91% and ranked 20th among 31 sectors [1][15] - The fishery sector showed the best performance with a 1.34% increase, followed by planting, feed, agricultural product processing, and breeding sectors [1][17] 2. Industry Key Data 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.05 yuan/kg, down 2.43% week-on-week and down 23.89% year-on-year [2] - Self-breeding profits are at 33.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.82 yuan/head week-on-week, while profits from purchased piglets are at -120.80 yuan/head, down 36.43% week-on-week [2] 2.2 Poultry - The average price of meat chicken chicks is 2.84 yuan/chick, down 1.05% week-on-week, and the price of white feather meat chickens is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week [2] 2.3 Agricultural Products - The average price of wheat is 2,433.61 yuan/ton, down 0.82% week-on-week; japonica rice is at 2,876.00 yuan/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week; and soybean meal is at 2,940.00 yuan/ton, down 0.54% week-on-week [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the aquaculture feed industry due to the upcoming sales peak in summer and rising prices of certain fish species [4] - In pig farming, companies with strong cost control or clear cost reduction paths are recommended, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For poultry, attention is drawn to integrated industry leaders like Shengnong Development and Lihua Stock for their stable expansion and cost advantages [4] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and Hefeng Stock are highlighted for benefiting from the recovery in livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are recommended for their focus on food security [4]

证券代码：603363 证券简称：傲农生物 公告编号：2025-072 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司 2025 年 5 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 5 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 5 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 2025 年 5 月，公司生猪销售量 15.62 万头，同比增加 9.44%，较 2025 年 4 月增加 17.63%。 2025 年 5 月末，公司生猪存栏 53.64 万头，同比增加 22.56%，较 2025 年 4 月末减少 0.59%，较 2024 年 12 月末增加 4.57%。 公司积极推动生猪养殖产能优化工作，合理调整养殖布局、规模与品种结构， 后续将继续坚持"稳字当头、持续降本"的策略，集中资源发展优势产能，务实 经营发展目标，切实推进降本工作。 二、其他说明 本次披露的 2025 年 5 月养殖经营数据来自公司内部统计，未经审计，仅供 投资者及 ...