1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on: production end is differentiated with some开工率 decreasing and some increasing; commercial housing transactions decline marginally while land supply area rises continuously; prices are stable with an upward trend; shipping prices at home and abroad show opposite trends. Short - term attention should be paid to anti - involution, incremental policy implementation, and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.42 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 pct, and rebar output increased by 5.52 tons [2][9]. - Petroleum asphalt: Operating rate increased by 0.4 pct [9]. - Chemical industry: PX operating rate increased by 1.6 pct, PTA operating rate increased by 2.4 pct [9]. - Automobile tires: Full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.24 pct, semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.26 pct [10]. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area declined marginally, inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, land supply area increased continuously, and residential land transaction premium rate increased [13]. - Movie box office: Decreased by 0.53 billion yuan compared with the previous week [13]. - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 0.6 million vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales increased by 1.5 million vehicles [15]. - Shipping index: SCFI increased by 10.49%, CCFI increased by 2.89%, BDI decreased by 1.26% [18]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.32% to $65.07 per barrel, coking coal futures price increased by 3.52% to 1295.5 yuan per ton [20]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.51%, + 1.1%, and + 1.01% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 1.83% [21]. - Agricultural products: The overall price rose rapidly, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 increasing by 2.23%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by + 0.39%, - 0.14%, + 5.96%, and + 0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [23]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: Beijing decreased slightly, Shanghai increased slightly [26]. - Flight volume: Both domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and international flight volumes decreased [28]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have fallen from short - term highs, and asphalt prices have declined overall this week. The supply of asphalt is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is neutral, and cost is neutral. The overall trend of asphalt continues to fluctuate with crude oil, showing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as neutral. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). This week, the overall supply slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Zhonghai Yingkou and intermittent production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Sinochem Quanzhou [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Shandong stimulates downstream purchases by lowering prices and there is catch - up work after less rainfall. The demand in East China is also weak, with low prices and low shipments. The overall market demand is slowly declining with the drop in temperature. However, the total domestic asphalt shipments this week reached 469,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.3%. Shipments in North China and Northeast China have improved [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The inventory of asphalt production enterprises has decreased this week, in line with last week's expectations. The inventory in most regions has declined, especially in Shandong. The social inventory has also decreased but does not meet last week's expectations. The social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly due to improved weather and increased demand for catch - up projects [3] - **Cost**: It is neutral. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upwards. They first rose due to new US sanctions on Russia and upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, then fell due to doubts about the implementation of Russian sanctions, OPEC +'s planned production increase in December, and increased Iraqi oil exports in September, and finally rebounded due to positive EIA inventory data, positive signals from Sino - US and US - South Korea agreements, and the Fed's interest rate cut [3] - **Investment View**: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. With high supply and declining demand in the north affected by the rainy season, the peak season for asphalt is not prosperous, and its long - term trend continues to follow crude oil [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there are no opportunities. Key risks to watch include OPEC + production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [3] Part Two: Price - There are multiple price charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions from 2021 to 2025, including national and regional data [5][6][8] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: There is a chart showing the asphalt basis in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [14] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025, as well as production data in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [17][21][24] - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [29][33][35] - **Maintenance Loss**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [40] Part Two: Cost & Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [47][48] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [58] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [63][64][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment View: Bullish [7] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - Temporary Observation; Arbitrage - Long PP2601 and Short PL2601 [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the main contract of LPG futures strengthened, with the international LPG market price rising. The domestic supply decreased while imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand. The market confidence has recovered due to factors such as the expected increase in November import costs and the peak demand season in the far - month. [9] - The supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects of LPG show different trends. The supply is expected to decline this week, demand is gradually recovering, inventory shows a mixed trend, and the valuation of the LPG market is bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of the PN spread continuously below $50 on the raw material procurement of cracking units and overseas fundamental changes. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated between 4170 - 4330 yuan/ton. The international crude oil price first rose and then fell, but the international LPG market had a good trading atmosphere, and prices increased. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 1 yuan/ton, in South China was 114 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3811, an increase of 1395 from last Thursday. [9] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 53.06 million tons (-1.19%), including 20.93 million tons of civil gas, 21.34 million tons of industrial gas, and 18.05 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The LPG arrival volume was 82 million tons (59.11%). Enterprises in East and South China had maintenance last week, leading to a decline in supply. Some maintenance units in the Northeast, Shandong, and East China resumed, but an enterprise in Shandong had maintenance at the end of the week, which may continue to affect supply, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to decline this week. [7][8] 3.3 Demand - In late October, the winter heating demand gradually emerged, and the LPG combustion demand gradually improved, with demand slowly recovering. In the carbon - four deep - processing aspect, the restart of the maleic anhydride unit downstream of n - butane in November may drive an increase in demand, but the profit of the deep - processing unit is under pressure, suppressing the rebound of raw material prices. For isobutane, the dehydrogenation unit started operation, and the demand side improved. Overall, the demand for carbon - four deep - processing is relatively stable. In the propane deep - processing aspect, demand increased month - on - month, and the operating rate returned to a high level, but the continuous loss of unit profit due to the significant increase in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand structure has dampened the production enthusiasm of enterprises. [6][7] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 18.17 million tons (-2.47%), and the port inventory was 309.72 million tons (3.96%). Refineries promoted sales by reducing prices this week, and shipments improved to varying degrees. Downstream buyers replenished at low prices, with stable market enthusiasm and a continuous decline in the storage capacity utilization rate. At ports, ships delayed by strong winds unloaded in a concentrated manner, resulting in a significant increase in imported resources. With a slight increase in chemical demand, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement, and port inventories showed an accumulation trend. [7][8] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 3.00 yuan/ton in East China, 120.20 yuan/ton in South China, and - 5.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4194, an increase of 383, and the lowest deliverable location was East China. [7][8] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - Operating Rate: PDH was 73.85%, MTBE was 56.50%, and alkylation was 44.30%. - Profit: The profit of PDH to produce propylene was - 580 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 128 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 453 yuan/ton. [7] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.28 (2.18%), and the PG primary - secondary month spread was 80 yuan/ton (-29.20%). Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil prices rebounded significantly this week, and the PG - SC cracking spread narrowed. [7] 3.8 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. - The China - US summit in Busan achieved positive progress, and the US made a series of commitments to suspend or cancel tariffs, export controls, and industrial investigations against China to ease bilateral economic and trade relations. - The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela intensified, and market news was constantly disturbing. - Europe and the US imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India re - planned its energy procurement plan. [7]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China faces a structural contradiction of "high-end insufficiency and low-end surplus," leading to industry pressure and intensified competition [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The surplus in the industry is causing a decline in overall industry prosperity, resulting in increased "involution" competition [1] - The industry is expected to achieve high-quality development through measures such as the exit of backward production capacity and high-end transformation driven by policy [1] Group 2: Refining Sector Outlook - In the context of clearing backward production capacity and peak demand, the marginal supply-demand pattern in the refining industry is expected to improve [1] - Leading refining companies are likely to continue benefiting from these changes in the market dynamics [1] Group 3: Investment Vehicle - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed company securities involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, refining, and sales [1] - The index primarily consists of large enterprises in the energy sector, characterized by strong cyclicality and resource dependence, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas industry chain [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

Summary of Dongfang Shenghong Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dongfang Shenghong - **Industry**: Petrochemical and New Materials Key Financial Metrics - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 reached **11.788 billion yuan**, a **2%** year-on-year increase [2][4] - Total assets amounted to **212.8 billion yuan**, with net assets attributable to shareholders at **34.33 billion yuan** [2][4] - Revenue for the first three quarters was **96.261 billion yuan**, a decline of nearly **15%** year-on-year [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was **1.126 billion yuan**, an increase of **108.9%** year-on-year [4] Operational Highlights - The Shenghong integrated refining project operated at full capacity, with basic and fine chemical products accounting for over **70%** of output, while finished oil products accounted for less than **30%** [2][5] - The overall gross margin improved to nearly **10%**, up **1.4 percentage points** year-on-year [2][6] - In the new energy and materials sector, EVA production capacity increased to **900,000 tons**, with all facilities operating at full capacity [2][7] - The PTA production capacity reached **6.3 million tons**, with polyester filament capacity nearing **3.6 million tons**, including **600,000 tons** of recycled polyester fiber [2][8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "One Plus N" strategy, focusing on oil refining, new energy materials, and high-end textiles, while embracing artificial intelligence to create differentiated competitive advantages [2][9] - Major projects like EVA, POE, and PTA are nearing completion, with capital expenditure expected to decline, indicating a focus on shareholder returns and financial health [2][10] Market Outlook - Future oil prices are expected to fluctuate between **$66 and $70** per barrel, with significant profit elasticity if chemical product prices rebound by **50 to 100 yuan** per ton [3][21] - The company anticipates a stable development phase, with new projects completed and capital expenditures decreasing [20] Risk Management and Financial Strategy - The company is managing risks by optimizing resource allocation and improving operational efficiency [10][19] - The asset-liability ratio remains stable, with plans for equity financing to further reduce this ratio [19] Additional Insights - Tax and additional fees decreased by nearly **10%** year-on-year due to reduced consumption tax [15] - The company is actively engaging with downstream clients for its POE project, establishing strategic partnerships with leading enterprises [13][14] - The company is adapting to market changes and adjusting production strategies to ensure sustainable development [11][18]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, driven by significant improvements in its insurance underwriting business and solid contributions from Precision Castparts [1][2] Financial Performance - Berkshire's operating profit surged by 33.6% year-on-year to $13.49 billion in Q3, marking a recovery after consecutive declines in the previous two quarters [2] - The company's cash reserves reached a record high of $381.7 billion, increasing by $48 billion since the beginning of the year, without any stock buybacks [3][4] Stock Performance and Market Position - Berkshire's A and B shares have declined approximately 11.5% since the announcement of Greg Abel's succession, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 20.3% gain [4] - The stock has temporarily lost its "Buffett premium" due to ongoing stock sales and the suspension of buybacks, leading to a significant underperformance compared to the broader market [4] Future Outlook - Analysts believe that Greg Abel will rebuild investor confidence over time, with potential catalysts for stock price increases if he utilizes the substantial cash flow for investments or stock buybacks [5]

Core Insights - The China Petroleum Industry Index has seen a slight increase of 0.08% as of November 3, 2025, with leading stocks including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and Baofeng Energy [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has risen by 0.25%, reaching a latest price of 0.8 yuan, and has experienced a total net inflow of 100 million yuan over the past six days [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has achieved a new high in both share count (186 million shares) and total scale (149 million yuan) over the past year [1] Performance Metrics - As of October 31, 2025, the Petrochemical ETF has recorded a net value increase of 23.51% over the past six months [3] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception is 15.86%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being six months and an average monthly return of 5.06% [3] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 5.87% over the last six months [3] Risk and Tracking - The maximum drawdown for the Petrochemical ETF in the last six months is 6.47%, which is relatively low compared to a benchmark drawdown of 0.14% [3] - The ETF has the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds, with a tracking error of 0.037% over the past year [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum Industry Index account for 56.05% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical, CNPC, and Sinopec [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Fuel Oil Morning Report [3] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Group 2: Market Data - Rotterdam | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 1.02 [4] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -1.59 [4] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.23 [4] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -3.51 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 1.92 [4] | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.54 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -2.61 [4] | Group 3: Market Data - Singapore | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 2.18 [4] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 3.37 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 5.55 [4] | | Singapore GO M1 | 1.45 [4] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.05 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -5.18 [4] | Group 4: Market Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -14.46 [5] | | FOB VLSFO | -3.42 [5] | | 380 Basis | -1.05 [5] | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1 [5] | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.7 [5] | Group 5: Market Data - Domestic FU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -6 [5] | | FU 05 | -1 [5] | | FU 09 | -4 [5] | | FU 01 - 05 | -5 [5] | | FU 05 - 09 | 3 [5] | | FU 09 - 01 | 2 [5] | Group 6: Market Data - Domestic LU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 13 [6] | | LU 05 | 16 [6] | | LU 09 | 15 [6] | | LU 01 - 05 | -3 [6] | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 [6] | | LU 09 - 01 | 2 [6] | Group 7: Core Views - This week, the 380 fuel oil crack spread oscillated, the monthly spread weakened month - on - month, the basis oscillated and weakened, the European HSFO crack spread strengthened, and the EW spread weakened significantly. The 0.5 low - sulfur crack spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis oscillated at a low level [6]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased slightly [6][10]. - In terms of shipments, Russia's residual fuel oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year - on - year. Russia's overall residual fuel oil shipments in October decreased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's residual fuel oil shipments oscillated at a high level, the UAE's shipments decreased month - on - month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and domestic residual fuel oil arrivals increased month - on - month [10]. - This week, the domestic - foreign spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. The external low - sulfur market remained weak, the Singapore high - sulfur market had a poor basis, but the EW spread and raw material premiums supported the 380 crack spread, showing a short - term oscillating pattern [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward with an expected improvement in the domestic trading atmosphere and a possible slight price increase, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] - PDH profit slightly decreased, alkylation unit profit significantly declined, and MTBE production gross profit changed little [1] - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected growth in chemical demand [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Data Price Data - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4279 (-6), in Shandong was 4300 (+20), and in South China was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4420 (+50). The lowest delivery location was Shandong with a basis of - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33) [1] - **External Market Prices**: FEI was 508 (-4), CP was 472.6 (-1.7) dollars/ton. FEI month spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), CP month spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The 11 - month CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The internal and external PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Inventory and Production Data - **Port Inventory**: Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded [1] - **PDH开工率**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Warehouse Receipt Data - The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 lots (+1778), including 2300 from Wanhua, 1628 (+1628) from Jingbo, 150 (+150) from Ouhua, 64 from Yunda, and 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical [1]