行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 随着乌克兰对欧洲某国 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: For BU2601, the opening price was 3042 yuan/ton, closing at 3045 yuan/ton, with a high of 3066 yuan/ton, a low of 3025 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.13%, and a trading volume of 18.21 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3061 yuan/ton, closing at 3068 yuan/ton, with a high of 3085 yuan/ton, a low of 3048 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03%, and a trading volume of 3.74 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Today, the asphalt spot price in Shandong slightly increased, while prices in Northeast, North China, South China, and Sichuan and Chongqing areas decreased. Other regions' prices were relatively stable. Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residue oil, and Yunnan Petrochemical plans to start maintenance in the middle of the month, with the operating rate expected to slightly decline. On the demand side, demand in the northern regions has significantly shrunk. Snow and rain in the Northwest, Northeast, and northern North China have reduced road asphalt demand to zero. In North China, Shandong, and surrounding areas, the temperature will drop below freezing, leading to the suspension of road projects and a seasonal decline in rigid demand. Rain in the Northwest and eastern Southwest has also affected project construction, with demand continuing to decline [6] Operation Suggestions - With no support for oil prices and weakening asphalt demand, the price center is expected to have further downward space. Consider short - selling [7] Group 3: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3030 - 3520 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to Hongrun stopping asphalt loading, Dongming switching to producing residue oil with limited shipments, and Hualong refinery limiting shipments, the available spot resources in Shandong tightened, driving up the low - end prices [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3090 - 3210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Market demand remained stable, with some warehouses having relatively stable shipments. Despite entering the traditional construction season in the southern market, demand did not improve significantly. Traders were still bearish, and social inventory quotes were slightly lowered [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][18][21][23]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 20, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of October 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. LU fuel oil and coking coal dropped over 3%, while pure benzene rose over 2%. Different futures varieties have their own supply - demand fundamentals and market trends, with most expected to show weak or volatile trends, except for urea which is expected to be slightly stronger [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Overall Futures Market - **Price Movement**: As of October 29, domestic futures main contracts were mixed. LU fuel oil, coking coal dropped over 3%, industrial silicon, glass, etc. dropped over 2%. Pure benzene rose over 2%, and styrene, eggs, apples rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while some treasury bond futures rose [5][6]. - **Fund Flow**: As of 15:25 on November 20, funds flowed into CSI 500 2512 (3.693 billion), SSE 500 2512 (2.605 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.334 billion), and flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 (2.804 billion), ten - year treasury bond 2512 (852 million), thirty - year treasury bond 2512 (748 million) [6]. 3.2. Specific Futures Varieties 3.2.1. Copper - **Supply**: In November, 5 smelters are expected to be under maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. But production may increase as some enterprises resume production in October. Higher copper prices lead to more scrap copper supply, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources [8]. - **Demand**: Higher copper prices limit downstream consumption. Except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's unforged copper and copper product exports were 134,304 tons, up 67.8% year - on - year, and imports were 440,000 tons, down 13.5% year - on - year [8]. - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory has been continuously increasing, currently 98.63% higher year - on - year. The copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: Ningde Times' production is expected to resume after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 14, the weekly production rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher year - on - year [10]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 21.1% and 20% year - on - year respectively. The market is optimistic about energy storage demand. As of November 14, lithium carbonate inventory decreased for several weeks, and the warehouse receipt quantity has dropped significantly [10]. - **Price Trend**: After several days of increase, the price increase has slowed down. Wait for further verification of demand [10]. 3.2.3. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC + eight countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and suspend production increase in Q1 2024. The US crude oil production is at a high level. Geopolitical issues may cause supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya, but overall, the supply is in an oversupply situation [11]. - **Demand**: The peak demand season is over, and the EIA data shows that refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The market is worried about demand as the US ISM manufacturing index has declined for eight consecutive months [11]. - **Price Trend**: The price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. 3.2.4. Asphalt - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased to 29.0%. In November, the expected production is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residue oil, and the production rate will remain low [14]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand will further weaken as the cold wave comes and road construction ends in the north, and the increase in southern projects is limited [14]. - **Price Trend**: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. 3.2.5. PP - **Supply**: On November 20, the PP enterprise production rate increased to about 81.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawing increased. New capacity has been put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently [15][16]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving orders are limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement [15][16]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be weak and volatile under the unchanged supply - demand pattern [16]. 3.2.6. Plastic - **Supply**: On November 20, the plastic production rate remained at about 89%. New capacity has been put into operation [17]. - **Demand**: The PE downstream production rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The agricultural film is in the late peak season, and the packaging film orders are decreasing [17]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be weak and volatile recently [17]. 3.2.7. PVC - **Supply**: The PVC production rate decreased to 78.51%. New capacity has been put into operation, and some maintenance devices are about to end [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate is low. The concern about exporting to India has been alleviated, but the anti - dumping duty is about to be implemented, and the BIS policy has limited impact [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is still high, and the inventory pressure is large [19]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be weak and volatile recently [19]. 3.2.8. Coking Coal - **Supply**: In October, China's coal imports decreased. The production of domestic raw coal and coking coal increased. The anti -内卷 policy is expected to keep the supply in a tight - balance pattern [20]. - **Inventory**: Mine and coking enterprise inventories are decreasing, while steel mill inventories are increasing [20]. - **Demand**: Coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has decreased due to slow price increases and increased losses. Steel mill production and hot metal output have increased [20]. - **Price Trend**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand has become loose. Follow - up attention should be paid to the end - of - year production restrictions [20][21]. 3.2.9. Urea - **Supply**: The production of upstream factories is resuming, and the daily production is over 200,000 tons, which suppresses the upward space of the futures price [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream storage demand provides support. The compound fertilizer factory production rate has increased, and other industrial demands such as melamine have also increased [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been continuously decreasing [22]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be slightly stronger with volatile trends [22].

Group 1 - The company, Longzhou Co., Ltd. (SZ 002682), announced a temporary board meeting on November 20, 2025, to discuss a proposal for a comprehensive credit facility application not exceeding RMB 400 million from Haixia Bank Longyan Branch [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition was as follows: asphalt sales accounted for 57.72%, automotive and parts sales and repair income for 12.69%, oil sales for 11.78%, passenger transport and station service for 10.18%, and other businesses for 6.5% [1] - As of the report date, Longzhou Co., Ltd. had a market capitalization of RMB 3.6 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and commitment to returning capital to shareholders [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - The company plans to repurchase 8 million H-shares at a cost of HKD 36.584 million [1] - Additionally, it will buy back 1.7494 million A-shares for a total expenditure of HKD 10.6256 million [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [9][19]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in products such as toluene (up 25.22%) and liquid chlorine (up 13.73%), while products like butadiene and vinyl acetate saw notable declines [4][5][16]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current international oil price fluctuations [6][19]. - The report anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material price declines [6][19]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets for potential investment opportunities [19]. - It recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [19]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like China Heartland Fertilizer and Hualu Hengsheng [19]. Price Trends and Market Analysis - The report notes that while some chemical products have rebounded in price, the overall industry remains weak, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [17][19]. - It provides detailed price movements for various chemicals, indicating a general trend of price increases for certain products and declines for others [4][5][16]. - The report discusses the impact of OPEC's decisions on oil prices and how this affects the chemical industry, particularly in terms of raw material costs [6][20]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, with a focus on their expected EPS and PE ratios for the coming years [9]. - Companies such as Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [9][19]. - The report suggests that companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields, like the "three barrels of oil," will benefit from the current market conditions [19].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Hubei Province's crude oil processing volume reached 8.563 million tons, marking a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which is 12.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2024 and 6.2 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - In June 2025 alone, the crude oil processing volume in Hubei was 1.431 million tons, representing a 10.2% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 21.1 percentage points higher than June 2024 and 1.7 percentage points above the national average [2] Summary by Sections Overall Processing Volume - Hubei's crude oil processing volume for the first six months of 2025 was 8.563 million tons, accounting for 2.4% of the national total of 36.1613 million tons [1] Monthly Analysis - In June 2025, Hubei's processing volume was 1.431 million tons, which is 2.3% of the national total of 6.2245 million tons for that month [2] Growth Comparison - The growth rate of Hubei's crude oil processing in the first half of 2025 was 7.8%, significantly higher than the national growth rate, indicating strong regional performance [1] - The June 2025 growth rate of 10.2% also outperformed the national average, showcasing Hubei's robust recovery and expansion in the oil processing sector [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] Group 2: Core Views - The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, but the upward driving force remains limited [1] - Crude oil prices continue in a weak and volatile state, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - The fundamental situation of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils is converging. The previously strong high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have marginally loosened, but there are still supporting factors below [1] - Recently, the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait has tightened marginally, and the strength of overseas gasoline and diesel has also boosted the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, it faces the contradiction of being substituted in marine fuel demand and has abundant surplus capacity, so it does not have the conditions to strengthen continuously [1] Group 3: Strategy - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For cross-variety: Positions with long LU-FU spreads can be appropriately taken profit [2] - For cross-period: No strategy provided [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy provided [2] - For options: No strategy provided [2] Group 4: Market Data - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.21% at 3,266 yuan/ton [1] - Multiple charts show prices, spreads, and trading volume data for Singapore and Chinese fuel oil futures and spot markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The achievements of Sinopec's Fourth Construction Company in welding engineering for LNG storage tanks have been recognized with national awards, highlighting their expertise and innovation in the field [1] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - The Jiangsu Binhai LNG Phase I expansion project and the Wuhu Yangtze LNG inland receiving station project both won the "Excellent Achievement Award" in the 2025 China Engineering Construction Welding Association's evaluation [1] - The recognition reflects the company's strong quality control and effective technological innovations in large LNG storage tank welding [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The Wuhu project utilized low-temperature fatigue-resistant welding technology and full-cycle digital quality control to ensure the long-term safe operation of tanks in extreme cold environments at -162°C [1] - The Jiangsu Binhai LNG project adopted low-temperature compatible welding techniques and stringent management practices to guarantee the sealing and structural safety of large storage tanks under similar conditions [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - The receipt of these national-level awards demonstrates the company's professional capabilities in the large LNG storage tank welding sector, laying a solid foundation for undertaking future key projects [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2][10] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3][11] Group 2: Market Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong Basis (+80) (Hongrun): On November 19, it was 15, with a daily change of 17 and a weekly change of 24 [4][12] - East China Basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse): On November 19, it was 105, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -16 [4][12] - South China Basis (Foshan Warehouse): On November 19, it was 35, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -66 [4][12] - 12 - 01 Spread: On November 19, it was 4, with a daily change and a weekly change of 5 [4][12] - 12 - 03 Spread: On November 19, it was -46, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of -2 [4][12] - 01 - 02 Spread: On November 19, it was -23, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of -7 [4][12] Futures Contract - BU Main Contract (01): On November 19, the price was 3045, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 16 [4][12] - Trading Volume: On November 19, it was 242605, with a daily change of 23474 and a weekly change of -101039 [4][12] - Open Interest: On November 19, it was 338791, with a daily change of -10853 and a weekly change of -5664 [4][12] - Delivery Quantity: It remained at 4690 from November 13 - 19 [4][12] Spot Market - Brent Crude Oil: On November 19, the price was 64.9, with a daily change of 0.7 and a weekly change of 2.2 [4][12] - Jingbo: On November 19, the price was 3030, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20 [4][12] - Hongrun: On November 19, the price was 2980, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 40 [4][12] - Zhenjiang Warehouse: The price remained at 3150 from November 13 - 19 [4][12] - Foshan Warehouse: On November 19, the price was 3080, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -50 [4][12] Profit - Asphalt - Marrow Profit: On November 19, it was 59, with a daily change of -32 and a weekly change of -89 [4][12] - Marrow - type Refinery Comprehensive Profit: On November 19, it was 654, with a daily change of -93 [5][13]