申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1.主力资金： 近两周主力资金合计净流出1176.07亿元，主力资金净流入的行业为煤炭，主力资金净流 出额前三的行业为计算机、电子和机械设备。 2.融资融券数据： 当前市场融资融券余额为18213.25亿元，较上期上升0.66%，其中融资余额18089.88 亿元，融券余额123.37亿元。本期两融日均交易额为1080.18亿元，较上期上升15.74%，其中融资日均 净买入1075.41亿元，较两周前上升15.77%，融券日均净卖出4.78亿元，较上期上升8.80%。近两周融资 净买入前三的行业分别为医药生物、汽车和食品饮料；融券净卖出前三的行业分别为银行、有色金属和 商贸零售。 3.涨跌情况： 近两周全市场下跌家数高于上涨家数，近两周涨幅前三的行业为有色金属、石油石化和通 信，跌幅前三的行业为食品饮料、家用电器和商贸建筑材料。 4.强弱分析： 近两周全部A股强弱分析得分为5.39，沪深300强弱分析得分5.4 ...

Economic Overview - In May, the national economy demonstrated resilience, maintaining overall stability and progress, with stable growth in production demand and a generally stable employment situation [1][3] - The combination of policy effects has shown positive results in stabilizing the economy and promoting development [1] Industrial Performance - In May, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience and growth potential [2] - The high-end manufacturing sector saw significant growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9% and 8.6% respectively [2] - The digital economy's integration has accelerated, with the added value of digital product manufacturing growing by 9.1%, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [2] - Green production is improving, with production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles increasing by 31.7% and 52.5% respectively [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced consumer vitality [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown continued effectiveness, with significant year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment [4] - The tourism sector has also seen a boost, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export volume grew by 2.7%, with exports increasing by 6.3%, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade [7] - Despite a decline in trade with the US, trade with ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative continued to grow, showcasing the diversification of China's foreign trade [7] - Private foreign trade enterprises have shown strong market adaptability, with their import and export volume increasing by 7% year-on-year in the first five months [7]

6月16日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍5月份国民经济运行情况。从主要指标来看，工业、服务业、消 费、投资等均保持增长。外贸顶住压力，保持平稳增长。 其中，消费和服务业两项增速比上月有所加快，显示出在一系列促消费政策带动下，国内消费潜力得到 释放。工业增加值平稳较快增长，固定资产投资继续扩大。房地产继续朝止跌回稳的方向迈进。 全年即将过半，上半年GDP将于下月中旬揭晓。"作为数据生产者，又来进行预测，本身是存在一定矛 盾的。"国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，统计部门一般不做这方面预 测，但从整个经济运行情况来看，全年经济仍有较好支撑，上半年有望保持总体平稳、稳中有进的发展 态势。 宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供支撑 主要指标中，消费和服务业两项增速均比上月有所加快。5月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%， 增速比上月加快1.3个百分点。全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.2%，比上月加快0.2个百分点。 "从5月份相关指标看，宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供了重要支撑。"付凌晖表示。 以消费品以旧换新政策为例，在政策带动下，5月份，家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公 用品 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a general decline, with financial and cyclical sectors performing the best, while the STAR 50, consumer, and CSI 2000 indices lagged behind [3][9] - Among industries, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery showed the highest gains, while household appliances, food and beverage, and building materials performed the weakest [11][12] - The relative PE of the ChiNext index to the CSI 300 decreased, and the relative PB also declined [16] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices fell, with the current valuations of major indices above the 50% historical percentile level, while the ChiNext index is at a low valuation compared to the past year [24] - Valuation differentiation is evident across industries, with financial real estate valuations above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology are at or below the 50% level [26] Group 3 - The current valuation of the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and public utilities sectors is relatively cheap, indicating potential investment opportunities [37] - The PB-ROE perspective shows that non-bank financials, public utilities, agriculture, food and beverage, and social services have lower PB-ROE ratios, suggesting they may be undervalued [40] Group 4 - Current popular concepts such as autonomous driving, cultivated diamonds, third-generation semiconductors, digital currency, 6G, robotics, central state-owned enterprises, and large aircraft are at historically high valuation percentiles over the past three years [43]

国家统计局发布的最新统计数据显示，5月份，市场销售明显回升，以旧换新相关商品快速增长。国家 统计局新闻发言人付凌晖：5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个 百分点；环比增长0.93%。基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增势较好，消费品以旧换新政策持续显 效，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通信器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长 53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。1—5月份，实物商品零售额49878亿元，增长6.3%，占社会消费品零售 总额的比重为24.5%。1—5月份，服务零售额同比增长5.2%。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the North Exchange has accelerated its IPO approvals, with a total of 9 companies approved from January to June 2025, suggesting an increase in listing pace as companies finalize their 2024 annual reports [3][11]. - The average number of effective online subscription accounts reached 460,100, with an average of 475.2 billion yuan in frozen funds during the same period, reflecting heightened market activity [3][12]. - The average fundraising amount per company in the North Exchange for the first half of 2025 was 396 million yuan, representing a 94.55% increase compared to 2024, indicating a trend towards larger fundraising efforts [3][20]. Group 2 - The North Exchange's overall PE ratio decreased to 50.12X, with the North 50 Index closing at 1,382.74 points, down 0.71% for the week, highlighting a volatile market environment [4][30][32]. - The report notes that 143 companies in the North Exchange have a PE ratio exceeding 45X, with 71 companies exceeding 105X, indicating a significant portion of the market is highly valued [4][35]. - The average maximum online subscription limit was 9.81 million yuan, with a notable increase to 16.13 million yuan in the first half of 2025, suggesting improved investor capacity for participation [3][24]. Group 3 - The report highlights that from January 1, 2024, to June 13, 2025, the average subscription rate for companies raising over 200 million yuan was 0.14%, compared to 0.06% for those raising less, indicating a correlation between fundraising size and subscription success [3][17]. - The average subscription threshold for 100 shares was 1.5827 million yuan, which increased to 1.8591 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting rising entry costs for investors [3][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with reasonable valuations and strong performance potential, particularly those that align with new industrial and technological trends [4][44].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant structural differentiation over the past decade, with banking stocks outperforming expectations and leading the market recovery since the peak in 2015 [1][8]. Industry Performance - Over the past ten years, the A-share market has seen valuation corrections and industrial upgrades, with the index not returning to its peak but a number of genuinely growth-oriented companies have thrived [2]. - The top three performing sectors since June 12, 2015, are food and beverage, home appliances, and banking, while most other sectors have not surpassed their 2015 highs [2]. - The food and beverage sector has shown resilience due to its essential consumption nature, with leading companies significantly outperforming major indices [3][5]. Stock Performance - The top 20 stocks in the food and beverage sector have shown remarkable growth, with Salted Fish (盐津铺子) leading with a 1,430.52% increase, followed by Shanxi Fenjiu (山西汾酒) and Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) with increases of over 600% and 629.72% respectively [4][5]. - In the home appliance sector, Midea Group (美的集团) has led with a 292.31% increase since 2015, while over 60% of home appliance stocks have seen declines over the same period [6]. - The banking sector has seen a significant rise, with the banking index reaching a historical high of 7,237.72 points, up 11.66% year-to-date and 61.4% since last year [9][10]. Market Trends - The banking sector has shown less differentiation compared to other sectors, with 39 out of 42 banking stocks rising this year [9]. - The preference for high dividend yields has driven the banking sector's performance, with the index recovering losses from previous years [9][12]. - Despite the strong performance of banking stocks, the allocation of funds to this sector has been relatively low, with a significant shift towards emerging industries since 2010 [10].

Group 1: IPO Overview - A total of 8 IPOs were accepted in a short span of two days, with 1 from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market, 2 from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 1 from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Main Board, and 4 from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - As of June 14, 2025, a total of 41 IPO projects have been accepted across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, with 10 from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, 25 from the Beijing Stock Exchange, and 6 from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] Group 2: Jiangsong Technology Co., Ltd. - Jiangsong Technology, established in October 2007 and transformed into a joint-stock company in December 2021, has a registered capital of 59.584 million yuan [2] - The company specializes in high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing, focusing on the research, production, and sales of automated equipment for high-efficiency photovoltaic cells, positioning itself as a leading manufacturer in this field [3] - The controlling shareholder and actual controller is Zuo Guisong, who holds 71.28% of the shares, with a total voting power of 72.19% when combined with his son [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Jiangsong Technology's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was 807.09 million yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 2.019 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 85.84 million yuan, 128.02 million yuan, and 186.76 million yuan [5] - The company's asset-liability ratio improved from 91.35% in 2023 to 82.08% in 2024 [6] - The proportion of R&D investment to revenue decreased from 5.83% in 2022 to 2.86% in 2024 [7] Group 4: Major Clients - The combined sales revenue from the top five clients accounted for 58.88%, 55.10%, and 59.31% of total revenue for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [9] - Major clients include Jingao Technology, Longi Green Energy, and Chint Group, with significant contributions to the company's revenue [10][11] Group 5: Fundraising and Investment Projects - Jiangsong Technology plans to raise 1.052 billion yuan through its IPO, with funds allocated to four projects including the construction of a photovoltaic intelligent equipment production base and a research and development center [12][13] Group 6: Shanghai Chaosilicon Semiconductor Co., Ltd. - Established in July 2008 and transformed into a joint-stock company in May 2021, the company has a registered capital of 1.176 billion yuan [14] - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of 300mm and 200mm semiconductor silicon wafers, with a production capacity of 700,000 pieces per month for 300mm wafers [15] - The company reported revenues of 921.09 million yuan, 927.80 million yuan, and 1.327 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net losses increasing over the years [18] Group 7: Fundraising and Investment Projects for Chaosilicon - The company aims to raise 4.965 billion yuan through its IPO, with funds directed towards expanding production capacity for 300mm silicon wafers and R&D projects [22][23] Group 8: Shenzhen Hengyunchang Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. - Founded in March 2013 and transformed into a joint-stock company in December 2023, the company has a registered capital of 50.77 million yuan [24] - The company specializes in the development, production, and sales of plasma RF power systems and related components, providing comprehensive solutions for plasma processes [25] - The company achieved revenues of 158.16 million yuan, 325.27 million yuan, and 540.79 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits showing significant growth [27] Group 9: Fundraising and Investment Projects for Hengyunchang - The company plans to raise 1.55 billion yuan through its IPO, with funds allocated to projects including the industrialization of semiconductor RF power systems and R&D initiatives [33] Group 10: Guangxi Baifei Dairy Co., Ltd. - Established in December 2017 and transformed into a joint-stock company in December 2019, the company has a registered capital of 166 million yuan [35] - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of dairy products, including sterilized milk and fermented milk [36] - The company reported revenues of 780.80 million yuan, 1.075 billion yuan, and 1.423 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits increasing significantly [39] Group 11: Fundraising and Investment Projects for Baifei Dairy - The company aims to raise 496.78 million yuan through its IPO, with funds directed towards the construction of a smart buffalo farm and marketing network development [45] Group 12: Zhejiang Hengdao Technology Co., Ltd. - Founded in October 2010 and transformed into a joint-stock company in August 2023, the company has a registered capital of 39.24 million yuan [46] - The company specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of hot runner systems for injection molds, recognized as a key enterprise in Zhejiang Province [47] - The company achieved revenues of 142.57 million yuan, 168.39 million yuan, and 234.47 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits showing consistent growth [49] Group 13: Fundraising and Investment Projects for Hengdao Technology - The company plans to raise 403.02 million yuan through its IPO, with funds allocated to projects including the production line for hot runner systems and R&D center construction [56] Group 14: Guangdong Shangyan Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. - Established in June 2011 and transformed into a joint-stock company in September 2020, the company has a registered capital of 48 million yuan [58] - The company focuses on the development, production, and sales of electronic control products, including variable frequency drives and power controllers [59] - The company reported revenues of 521.26 million yuan, 615.54 million yuan, and 587.59 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits showing a stable trend [61] Group 15: Fundraising and Investment Projects for Shangyan Technology - The company aims to raise 401.38 million yuan through its IPO, with funds directed towards the construction of electronic control product production bases and R&D projects [67]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 模型提示市场价量匹配度提高，但 轮动仍缺乏持续性 ——量化择时周报 20250613 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 量 化 策 略 证券分析师 王小心 A0230524100006 wangxx2@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王小心 (8621)23297818× wangxx2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 市场情绪进一步下行：市场情绪指标数值为 0.8，较上周五的 1.75 进一步下行，代表市 场情绪进一步回落，观点偏空。 ⚫ 价量匹配度提高，但行业涨跌趋势较弱、资金轮转现象显著：本周各项情绪指标分数较上 周有一定边际上行，但并未完全改变近期整体下行的趋势。价量一致性（匹配度）提升代 表资金的活跃度和参与度有一定提升，这个指标也是贡献本周市场情绪下降趋势减缓的主 要因素。但是，我们继 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年6月15日 估值周观察(6月第3期) 稀土永磁表现突出 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.6.9-2025.6.13）海外市场整体回调，估值温和收缩。海外市场整体回调，但韩国市场持续上涨，韩国综合指数和 KOSPI50指数分别上涨2.94%和2.48%；香港市场持续回暖，恒生中型股全球领涨，上涨3.94%。美国主要指数小幅下跌1%左右；德 国DAX指数领跌，下跌3.24%。估值方面变化温和（幅度基本不超过1x）。德国DAX指数明显下跌，但PE扩张0.52x；韩国KOSPI50指 数上涨，但PE收缩0.69x，两者盈利有所修复。其余市场PE变化和指数涨跌方向保持一致。港股除恒生科技指数，其余指数的估值分 位数均在95%左右， ...