Core Insights - The latest holdings of large private equity firms in A-shares reveal a clear investment strategy focused on "technology" and "cyclical" sectors, with significant adjustments in their portfolios during the third quarter of 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Holdings Overview - As of October 29, 31 large private equity firms appeared among the top ten shareholders of 117 A-share listed companies, with a total holding value of 37.68 billion yuan [1] - In the third quarter, these firms increased their positions in 12 companies, reduced holdings in 25, and maintained positions in 46, while entering 34 new companies [1][2] - The computer industry emerged as the largest sector by holding value at 10.67 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals at 6.47 billion yuan, and telecommunications at 5.11 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Besides the top three sectors, large private equity firms also made significant investments in electronics, basic chemicals, coal, and building materials, with holdings exceeding 1 billion yuan in each sector [2] - The electronics sector saw a broad interest with 16 companies attracting investments, while the basic chemicals sector had 12 companies receiving over 2.7 billion yuan [2] - Notably, the coal sector had a concentrated investment in China Shenhua, with one firm holding over 2 billion yuan, indicating a focus on quality cyclical resource stocks [2] Group 3: Notable New Investments - High Yi Asset made new investments in Beixin Building Materials and Dongfulong, balancing between cyclical and growth sectors [2] - Abama Investment entered positions in Yuntu Holdings, Tianneng Heavy Industry, and Zhongtai Chemical, diversifying across basic chemicals and power equipment [2] - Other significant new investments included Dinglong Co., Dong'e Ejiao, and Haitong Development [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The sentiment among large private equity firms remains positive for the last two months of 2025, with macroeconomic factors becoming increasingly favorable [4][5] - There is a consensus on the long-term investment focus on the technology sector, but short-term overheating signals have been noted, suggesting a need for strategic adjustments [4][5] - Recommendations include adopting a "dumbbell" strategy, balancing investments between high-growth technology sectors and undervalued financial and resource sectors [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Yijiahe (SH 603666, closing price: 30.04 yuan) announced the convening of its fourth board meeting on October 30, 2025, to review various proposals, including the management system for senior executives' departure [1] Company Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Yijiahe's revenue composition is as follows: 60.27% from the power industry, 24.7% from non-power industries, and 15.03% from other businesses [1]

Core Insights - The enthusiasm of private equity institutions for participating in A-share private placements has significantly increased this year, with a total of 51 private equity products involved in 53 A-share companies, amounting to 5.524 billion yuan, a growth of over 23% compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall floating profit from these private placements is approximately 2.438 billion yuan, with a floating profit ratio of 44.13% [1] Group 1: Market Environment and Participation - The positive market environment and supportive policies have created a favorable backdrop for private placements, with strong stock performance in the A-share market [1] - The discount advantage of private placements provides a safety margin, allowing private equity institutions to acquire shares at lower costs, enhancing potential returns [1] - Multiple exit channels, including traditional secondary market sales and agreement transfers, help private equity institutions mitigate liquidity risks and improve strategy stability [1] Group 2: Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The electronic industry is the most favored sector for private equity participation, with 10 electronic stocks involved in private placements, accounting for 36.78% of the total allocation [2] - Among the 53 stocks, 16 received over 100 million yuan in allocations, with companies like Lexin Technology and TCL Technology being particularly attractive to private equity institutions [1][2] - Lexin Technology attracted significant attention, with a total allocation of 788 million yuan from four private equity institutions [1] Group 3: Institutional Insights and Market Signals - Private equity institutions' active participation in private placements signals optimism about future market trends, indicating a belief that the current market level is not high and that the probability of future increases outweighs the risks of declines [3] - The involvement of professional investors in private placements serves as a reference for ordinary investors, especially in sectors like technology, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [3] - This trend reflects a shift from short-term speculation to long-term value investment among private equity institutions, showcasing enhanced research and risk tolerance capabilities [3]

2025 年 10 月 30 日 加仓科技成长，增量资金待入市 ——北交所 25 年公募三季报重仓股点评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 liujing@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 A 股 联系人 吕靖华 (8621)23297818× lvjh@swsresearch.com 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 - 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 ⚫ 事件：2025 年 10 月 29 日，公募基金三季报披露完成，按照前十大重仓股口径，截至 2025Q3，公募重仓北交所市值达 103.07 亿元，环比增长+4.19%；公募重仓北交所市 值占全 A 的比重达 0.31%，环比-0.07pct。 ⚫ 公募重仓北交所规模占全 A 比重小幅下降，但公募重仓产品数量仍在提升。2025Q3 以 来，北证市场呈现"先上行后下行"的震荡走势，公募重仓北交所的比例和系数环比走弱， 主因部分龙头个股减配幅度较大。但公募产品的参与度仍在提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.299 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 692 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [4][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 7.399 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.92%. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 503 million yuan, up 8.30% year-on-year [4][5] - The company has seen significant growth in the shipment of cathode materials, with a cumulative shipment of 110,000 tons by the end of Q3 2025, marking a substantial year-on-year increase [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 10.299 billion yuan, 13.372 billion yuan, and 15.469 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 35.6%, 29.8%, and 15.7% respectively [4][8] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 692 million yuan, 866 million yuan, and 981 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.6%, 25.2%, and 13.2% respectively [4][8] - The earnings per share are projected to be 1.27 yuan in 2025, 1.59 yuan in 2026, and 1.80 yuan in 2027 [8] Business Developments - The company has made breakthroughs in solid-state battery materials, achieving significant progress in the development of all-solid-state cathode materials and sulfide electrolytes [6] - The company’s production capacity for lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase significantly, with the first phase of a new production line set to be completed by the end of 2025, raising the total capacity to 120,000 tons [5][6]

Market Performance - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.84%, closing at 3263.02 points, with a total trading volume of 645.299 billion yuan, an increase of 24.566 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the tradable ChiNext stocks, 257 stocks closed higher, with 7 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 1115 stocks closed lower, with 8 stocks declining over 10% [1] Turnover Rate - The average turnover rate for the ChiNext today was 4.16%, with 20 stocks having a turnover rate exceeding 20% [1] - The highest turnover rate was for HaiKe XinYuan at 47.58%, followed by KeDa GuoChuang at 41.42% [1] Institutional Activity - Five high turnover ChiNext stocks appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List, with institutional participation noted in several stocks [3] - HaiKe XinYuan saw a net institutional buy of 26.5752 million yuan, while KeDa GuoChuang experienced a net institutional sell of 359 million yuan [3] Fund Flow - Among high turnover stocks, 7 stocks experienced net inflows from main funds, with HaiKe XinYuan leading at 150 million yuan [3] - Conversely, KeDa GuoChuang, WeiShiTon, and BeiFang ChangLong saw significant net outflows, with amounts of 154 million yuan, 105 million yuan, and 101 million yuan respectively [3] Quarterly Reports - Among the high turnover stocks, 20 companies released their Q3 reports, with notable profit growth from XingFeng New Materials, ZhongKe Magnetic Materials, and BeiFang ChangLong, showing increases of 1852.52%, 214.28%, and 208.52% respectively [4]

Core Points - The total margin balance has reached a historical high of 2.5066 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone as it first surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan on October 29, coinciding with the Shanghai Composite Index crossing the 4000-point mark [1][2] - The current market environment is characterized by a more cautious use of leverage compared to 2015, with margin trading activity remaining within a reasonable range [4][5] - The flow of margin funds has shifted significantly towards the technology sector, contrasting with the previous focus on traditional industries such as finance and real estate in 2015 [5][6] Margin Balance and Market Comparison - The margin balance has increased from approximately 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan over nearly seven months, compared to a rapid increase from 1.1 trillion yuan to 1.65 trillion yuan in just two months in 2015 [4] - The current margin balance accounts for 2.53% of the A-share market's circulating market value, lower than the 3.89% seen in 2015, indicating a more prudent approach to leverage [4] - The trading volume of margin transactions represents 12.30% of the total A-share trading volume, significantly below the 17.36% recorded in 2015 [4] Investor Participation and Future Outlook - The number of new margin accounts opened has shown a steady increase, with September recording the highest number of new accounts at 205,400 [6] - As of October 29, the number of individual investors participating in margin trading was 7.7462 million, with institutional investors totaling 50,254 [6] - Analysts suggest that the future growth of margin balances is closely tied to market sentiment, with expectations of continued upward movement if market conditions remain favorable [7] Sector Focus - Recent margin fund inflows have favored sectors such as power equipment, banking, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and technology, while traditional sectors have seen net sell-offs [5] - Specific stocks like Sungrow Power Supply, Newyea, and Industrial Fulian have attracted significant net buying, while others like Zhongke Shuguang and Dongshan Precision have faced net selling [5] Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend a balanced investment approach, seeking opportunities in both technology growth and dividend value sectors, while also considering defensive strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show strong fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4016.33 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, but concerns arise as Ningquan Asset announces a suspension of new client subscriptions for all its funds starting October 30, 2025, signaling caution in a potentially overheated market [1][3][12]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4016.33 points, the third time it has closed above 4000 points in history, following similar peaks in May 2007 and April 2015 [1]. - Ningquan Asset's management scale exceeded 450 billion yuan as of September, positioning it among the top tier of domestic stock private equity firms [3]. Ningquan Asset's Strategy - Ningquan Asset's decision to limit new subscriptions is interpreted as a prudent signal amid market overheating, with the firm emphasizing that "scale is the enemy of performance" [3][12]. - The firm has a total of 27 employees, with 19 in the investment research team, focusing on sectors like new energy, TMT, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and consumer finance [3]. Investment Philosophy - Ningquan Asset adopts a "farming-style" investment approach, seeking stable returns over time rather than chasing high-risk opportunities [6][7]. - The firm primarily invests in high-dividend, stable businesses, viewing them as a "stabilizing force" during market volatility [7]. Portfolio Management - As of August, Ningquan Asset maintained a stock position of over 70% in its flagship product, with a diversified industry allocation, including real estate, basic chemicals, and electric power [9]. - The firm has actively increased its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, including major companies like Vanke and Country Garden [9]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The private equity sector is experiencing a wave of subscription limits, with several firms, including quantitative leaders, taking similar actions to manage growth and performance [12]. - Ningquan Asset's caution reflects broader market concerns about structural bubbles in certain sectors, while still identifying valuable investment opportunities [13]. Future Outlook - Different private equity firms exhibit varied outlooks on the A-share market, with some expressing optimism for a "slow bull" market, while others remain cautious due to economic uncertainties [15][16]. - The investment community is closely monitoring the potential for structural shifts in market preferences, particularly towards low-valued cyclical assets as economic conditions evolve [16][17].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that active equity funds have increased their stock positions, with a focus on enhancing holdings in the technology and new energy sectors [4][12][20] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the number of active equity funds reached 4,626, a 1.58% increase from the previous quarter, while the total fund size rose to 4.12 trillion yuan, marking a 19.68% increase [4][7][9] - The issuance of new active equity funds in Q3 2025 totaled 561.10 billion yuan, representing a 53% increase compared to the previous quarter [9][10] Group 2 - The performance of active equity funds was strong in Q3 2025, with significant gains in the A-share market, particularly in mid-cap and growth-style funds [12][15] - The telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment sectors saw the highest increases, while the banking sector experienced significant declines [17][18] - The report highlights that technology, new energy, and cyclical theme funds had substantial gains, with median returns of 44.97%, 39.13%, and 35.76% respectively [20][21] Group 3 - As of the end of Q3 2025, the median stock position of active equity funds was 91.23%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from the previous quarter [25][26] - The concentration of holdings increased, with the median position in the top ten stocks rising to 48.39%, up 3.39 percentage points from the previous quarter [27][28] - The report notes a significant increase in holdings in the electronics, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors, while reductions were seen in the banking and food and beverage sectors [29][31] Group 4 - The top holdings included Ningde Times, which regained its position as the largest holding with a total value of 73.57 billion yuan, followed by significant increases in Industrial Fulian and SMIC [33][34] - The report indicates that stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng saw the largest increases in holdings, while Xiaomi Group-W and China Merchants Bank were among the most reduced [35][36] - The median position in Hong Kong stocks for active equity funds was 26.67%, a slight decrease of 0.36% from the previous quarter, while Hong Kong theme funds increased their median position to 85.02%, up 1.22% [40][41] Group 5 - The report highlights that the media sector remains the largest holding in Hong Kong theme funds, with a holding ratio of 16.77%, while significant increases were noted in the retail and non-ferrous metal sectors [43][44] - The report also mentions that the top increases in individual stocks for Hong Kong theme funds were seen in Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings, while Meituan-W and China Construction Bank were reduced [45]

Group 1 - In Q3 2025, the total market value of public actively managed equity funds and Stock Connect holdings in A-shares significantly increased, with public equity funds holding A-shares worth 3.56 trillion, a substantial increase of 21.5% from the previous quarter, and Stock Connect holdings reaching 2.59 trillion, up 12.9% [5][18][124] - The overall position of public actively managed equity funds continued to rise, with an overall position of 85.77%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the previous quarter, and over 40% of funds now have a high position of over 90% [5][25][31] - The concentration of heavily held stocks in public funds has increased, with CR10, CR20, and CR50 concentration rising by 1.64, 2.21, and 1.68 percentage points respectively [5][107] Group 2 - Both public funds and foreign capital through Stock Connect showed a high degree of consensus in style selection, significantly increasing their holdings in the growth sector (domestic +8.68%, foreign +10.52%) while reducing their positions in the financial sector (domestic -4.07%, foreign -6.17%) and consumer sector (domestic -4.17%, foreign -3.62%) [6][130] - In the consumer sector, both domestic and foreign investors continued to significantly reduce their holdings in food and beverage (domestic -1.67%, foreign -2.08%), as well as in automobiles (domestic -1.54%, foreign -0.30%) and home appliances (domestic -0.89%, foreign -0.79%) [6][51] - In the growth sector, both domestic and foreign investors significantly increased their holdings in electronics (domestic +3.79%, foreign +4.86%) and electrical equipment (domestic +2.01%, foreign +4.87%) [6][65] Group 3 - The financial sector saw a significant reduction in holdings, with both domestic and foreign investors heavily reducing their positions in banks (domestic -3.96%, foreign -4.38%) [6][97] - In the cyclical sector, there was a high degree of consensus, with both domestic and foreign investors significantly increasing their holdings in non-ferrous metals (domestic +1.42%, foreign +1.21%) while reducing their positions in public utilities [6][75] - The overall position in the cyclical sector continued to decline slightly, with more than half of the industries being reduced, particularly in public utilities and transportation [6][76]