磷化工行业专家电话会 20251120 摘要 工信部推动反内卷政策，但磷化工行业供大于求局面难改，预计 2028 年后市场或好转，期间缺乏竞争力的企业或将退出，行业整合加速。 磷肥行业经历供给侧改革后，总产能于 2024 年底达 2,350 万吨。受出 口法检和配额制影响，二元肥和三元肥出口受限，行业面临有价无市的 困境。 中国磷矿石储量分布不均，开采成本上升，叠加国内外市场波动，导致 部分地区供应紧张，推高生产成本，加剧下游企业经营压力。 磷复肥作为农业刚需，消费需求稳定。2025 至 2026 年行业整体预计 保持稳定，但需关注出口政策调整，如出口放开时间和配额量变化。 国内磷矿石开采产能逐年增长，预计 2027 年总产能达 1.8 亿吨以上。 高品位矿属于战略资源，开采审批严格，倾向于国有企业开发，且要求 就地转化率不低于 80%。 高品位磷矿石价格自 2022 年以来稳步上涨，供应紧张局面难改，预计 价格将维持稳定。中低品位磷矿石价格受季节性影响波动较大。 工业级磷酸一铵（公安）受益于新能源需求增长，市场前景乐观。预计 到 2027 年国内公安总产能将达 600 万吨以上，价格受成本上涨影响有 所提升 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continued its adjustment, with the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index closing down 4.30% last Friday and down 6.47% for the week, but still showing a cumulative increase of 27.66% since the second half of the year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by over 16% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) will be listed on November 25, having raised a net subscription amount of 549.89 million RMB during its fundraising period from November 10 to November 12, with a total of 549.91 million shares issued [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, including phosphorus chemicals, fluorine chemicals, phosphorus fertilizers, and potassium fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry has seen an increase in profit growth in the first three quarters, continuing its bottom recovery, with the overall gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing a slight year-on-year recovery [2] - The profitability of sub-industries within the basic chemical sector has shown significant differentiation, with improvements noted in fluorine chemicals, potassium fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the safety facility design for the expansion of the Xiaogaozhai phosphate mine by Batian Co., Ltd. is expected to enhance the company's phosphate production capacity and optimize its upstream and downstream industrial integration strategy, amidst a backdrop of high phosphate prices and increasing demand in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Batian Co., Ltd. received approval for the safety facility design of its Xiaogaozhai phosphate mine expansion project, increasing the production capacity from 2 million tons to 2.9 million tons per year [1]. - The company invested 343 million yuan to acquire exploration rights for the Xiaogaozhai phosphate mine, marking its transition from construction to production phase after receiving the safety production license in February [2]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters reached 3.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.50%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 687 million yuan, up 236.13% year-on-year, driven by significant growth in phosphate rock and fertilizer sales [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The average price of phosphate rock has remained high since 2025, supported by a tight supply-demand balance, with an expected total production of 12.99 million tons in China, a year-on-year increase of 11% [2]. - The downstream consumption capacity for phosphate rock is growing faster than the supply, with an increase of 611,000 tons this year, driven by the expanding demand in the new energy sector, particularly for lithium iron phosphate and related industries [3]. - Batian Co., Ltd. anticipates that the rising shipment volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries will positively impact phosphate rock prices, leveraging its high-quality phosphate resources in Guizhou to enhance its industrial chain advantages [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift is anticipated to enhance cash flow and dividend yields for companies in the sector, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [7][27] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes for Japanese semiconductor materials due to rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which could accelerate the domestic market's growth in this area [6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown a relative performance increase of 16.1% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 11.6% [4] Key Price Movements - DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) prices rose to 4400 CNY/ton, up 14.29% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from the electrolyte sector [14] - Lithium battery electrolyte prices increased to 27000 CNY/ton, up 8.00% week-on-week, although profit margins for manufacturers are under pressure due to rising raw material costs [14] - Diammonium phosphate prices in East China reached 3850 CNY/ton, up 5.48% week-on-week, amid rising production costs [14] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four key opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9] 2. Improved industry conditions, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock [10] 3. New materials with high growth potential, such as electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [11] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Chemical [11] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with many rated as "Buy" [28]

Core Points - The company Ba Tian Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guizhou Ba Tian, submitted an application for safety facility design review for a non-coal mining project, increasing the design capacity from 2 million tons to 2.9 million tons [1] - On November 21, Guizhou Ba Tian received approval from the Provincial Emergency Management Department for the safety facility design review of the 2.9 million tons per year expansion project [1] - The approval to increase production capacity from 2 million tons per year to 2.9 million tons is beneficial for the company to expand its phosphate rock production capacity and achieve its integrated phosphate chemical strategy [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing competition among major players in the large model sector, highlighting the significance of advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies [26]. - It outlines a series of online meetings scheduled for late November, focusing on various investment opportunities across different sectors, including banking, non-banking, and chemical industries [26]. - The meetings will feature insights from leading analysts in their respective fields, providing a comprehensive overview of market trends and investment strategies [26]. Group 2 - The first meeting on November 24 will cover the competition among tech giants in large models, led by the chief analyst in the computer industry [26]. - The second meeting on November 25 will review and update the industry allocation model, presented by the chief analyst in quantitative finance [26]. - The third meeting on November 27 will focus on investment opportunities in the banking and non-banking sectors for the fourth quarter, led by the chief analyst in finance [26]. - The fourth meeting on November 28 will explore investment opportunities in the phosphate chemical sector, featuring insights from both the assistant director and a chemical analyst [26]. - The final meeting on November 28 will provide perspectives on the electronics industry, presented by the chief analyst in electronics [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the chemical sector [5]. Core Insights - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is expected to create a leading global paint company with annual revenues of $17 billion (approximately 120.9 billion RMB) [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties on imported propanol from the U.S., with rates ranging from 254.4% to 267.4% [3]. - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention, including Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Shares, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is highlighted for its resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with suggested companies including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Shares [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the chemical industry benefiting from economic recovery and demand resurgence, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the ChiNext Index by 6.15%, and the CSI 300 by 3.77%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropped by 8.24% [14]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector were rubber additives (1.75%), potassium fertilizer (-1.21%), tires (-2.84%), modified plastics (-4.32%), and membrane materials (-5.19%) [17]. Major Industry Dynamics - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is set to create a company with a business scope covering various paint solutions and an expected annual revenue of $17 billion [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures on U.S. propanol will continue, affecting pricing and supply dynamics in the market [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its competitive domestic enterprises, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is noted for its tightening supply-demand balance, with several companies recommended for attention [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical industry that are likely to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4].

江苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年10月20日收到无锡市应急管理局出具的《现 场处理措施决定书》【（苏锡）应急现决﹝2025﹞32号】，责令江阴工厂暂时停产。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600078 证券简称：澄星股份公告编号：临2025-083 江苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司 关于收到无锡市应急管理局《整改复查意见书》的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真 实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特此公告。 江苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司董事会 2025年11月22日 2025年11月21日，公司收到由无锡市应急管理局出具的《整改复查意见书》【（苏锡）应急复查 ﹝2025﹞223号】，内容如下：本机关于2025年10月20日作出了现场处理措施的决定【（苏锡）应急现 决﹝2025﹞32号】，经对你单位整改情况进行复查，提出如下意见：复查当日，你单位：已对相关操作 规程进行修订，已对现场操作人员进行专门的安全培训。 公司自收到上述《整改复查意见书》后已积极有序安排江阴工厂复产前的各项准备工作，江阴工厂将于 ...

证券日报网讯和邦生物（603077）11月21日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司目前在国内拥有两 座磷矿，分别是马边烟峰磷矿和汉源刘家山磷矿，储量分别为3，174.10万吨和5，917.80万吨。 ...

Market Overview - US and Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a collective decline, with A-shares also falling significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 2.45% to 3834 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.02% [1][2]. Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down by 96.16 points (2.45%) - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down by 442.75 points (3.41%) - The ChiNext Index closed at 2920.08, down by 122.26 points (4.02%) - The North China 50 Index fell by 4.71% to 1377.39 [2]. Sector Performance - Lithium mining and battery sectors faced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down, including Ganfeng Lithium, Jiangte Motor, and Tianqi Lithium [3]. - The organic silicon sector also saw a downturn, with stocks like Yuanxiang New Materials dropping over 10% [3]. - The titanium dioxide sector declined, with Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit down [3]. - Battery stocks generally fell, with companies like Xingyuan Materials dropping over 10% [3]. - Fertilizer and phosphorus chemical sectors also experienced declines, with Chengxing Shares hitting the daily limit down [3]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector weakened, with Jincheng Shares hitting the daily limit down [3]. - Conversely, the shipbuilding sector rose against the trend, with Jianglong Shipbuilding increasing by over 14% [3]. - The AI application sector saw slight gains, with Kimi and Sora concepts leading the rise, and Yidian Tianxia hitting the daily limit up [3].