Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for August 2025 is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, with production and demand indices showing recovery [1][5]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][5]. - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion for four consecutive months [1][5]. - The new orders index is at 49.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a minor improvement in market demand [1][5]. Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 51.9%, and equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, both showing increases of 1.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, indicating sustained expansion in these sectors [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector PMI is at 49.2%, reflecting a decline of 0.3 percentage points, indicating weak terminal demand [7]. - The high-energy consumption sector PMI is at 48.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a continuous recovery in this area [7]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion territory [7]. - The factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold, indicating a slowing decline [7]. - The difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 4.2 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing profit margin in the manufacturing sector [2][7]. Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturers [2][8]. - This index has reached its highest level since April, reflecting a recovery in business sentiment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The August PMI indicates a divergence among industries, with manufacturing stabilizing slightly, service sectors improving significantly, and construction experiencing a notable decline. However, all three sectors show a common trend of improving sales prices [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The August manufacturing PMI stands at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3 in July, indicating a need for further support for actual growth [5]. - The production index is above 50 at 50.8, reflecting a stronger production performance compared to new orders, which remain below 50 [9][10]. - The consumer goods sector is a major drag on manufacturing PMI, while high-tech manufacturing shows strength, and both equipment manufacturing and basic raw materials industries show slight improvements [10] - The raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3, up 1.8 points, while the factory price index increased to 49.1, up 0.8 points, marking the third consecutive month of price increases [11][12]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI for August is 50.5, up from 50.0, indicating a positive trend influenced by capital market services, which have seen a business activity index above 70 for two consecutive months [5][10]. - Retail sentiment remains weak, suggesting challenges in consumer spending [10]. Construction Sector - The construction PMI dropped to 49.1 from 50.6, attributed to adverse weather conditions and a slowdown in construction activities [18]. - Fiscal spending on infrastructure showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in July, continuing a trend of low spending [18]. Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" for August reveal low absolute values, indicating a short-term economic slowdown compared to the first half of the year [19]. - Price indicators show a continuous improvement, which may influence future PPI trends [19]. - The manufacturing inventory index decreased to 46.8, while the raw material inventory index increased to 48.0, reflecting a proactive approach by companies to replenish stocks in response to rising prices [16][15]. Future Outlook - Attention is needed on the government's emphasis on stabilizing construction and actual growth, as well as whether the continuous improvement in PMI price indicators can translate into a rise in PPI [19]. - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 53.7, the highest since April, indicating improved business expectations possibly linked to price expectations [17].

Group 1 - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, indicating a slight recovery in economic sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production expansion [2] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.5%, showing a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month, with certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics performing significantly better than the overall manufacturing sector [2] Group 2 - The high-tech manufacturing PMI and equipment manufacturing PMI were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, indicating sustained support and leadership in these sectors [3] - The production and business activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [3] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the new orders index rising to 46.6%, indicating a stabilization in supply and demand [4] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with sectors like capital market services showing particularly strong growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, but the business activity expectation index remained slightly above 50 at 51.7% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.3 pct, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Except for the consumer goods industry, other industries' PMIs increased month - on - month. With the implementation of consumption - stimulating policies, the consumer goods industry's PMI is expected to stabilize and rebound [4]. - From the perspective of component indices, the production index was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct, and it has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 pct, rising for two consecutive months, showing a positive market expectation [4]. - In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, and the PMI of large enterprises has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months [5]. Non - manufacturing - In August, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 pct and a year - on - year flat, remaining in the expansion zone. The construction industry PMI decreased by 1.5 pct to the contraction zone due to adverse factors such as frequent extreme weather, while the service industry PMI increased by 0.5 pct to the highest point of the year, with an obvious improvement in the prosperity level [6]. - From the perspective of major classification indices, the new order index increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month, and the business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month, indicating that service enterprises are relatively optimistic about the recent market development prospects [6]. Comprehensive - In August, the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 pct, remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [7]. Market - This week, the 10Y treasury bond active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.75% - 1.80%, and the 10Y state - owned development active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.83% - 1.89%. The bond market trading remained insensitive to economic data, with overall fragile sentiment and a stronger sensitivity to negative events than positive events [8].

Manufacturing Sector - August manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 49.1%[2] - Production index rose to 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; new orders index increased to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points[5] - Large enterprises' PMI improved significantly to 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI rose to 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium enterprises' PMI fell to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points[5] Export and Import Trends - New export orders index rose to 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating stabilization in export momentum[20] - Import index increased to 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, reflecting ongoing production expansion[20] Price Indices - Raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points; factory price index increased to 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a potential upward trend in PPI[25] - Raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, while finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.8%, down 0.6 percentage points[25] Service Sector - Service sector business activity index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and higher than last year's 50.2%[29] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector increased to 57.0%, indicating positive market sentiment[29] Construction Sector - Construction sector business activity index fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.1%, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[32] - The decline in construction activity is attributed to adverse weather conditions and reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure investments[32]

Core Points - In August, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly to 49.4%, indicating a small recovery from July's decline, reflecting the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing competition pressure [1][2] - The production index and new orders index both showed improvements, with the production index rising to 50.8%, remaining above the critical 50% mark for four consecutive months [1][4] - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index increased to 53.3%, indicating rising costs for manufacturers, which may pressure profit margins [2][3] Economic Indicators - The new orders index rose to 49.5%, while the production index increased by 0.3 percentage points, suggesting a stabilization in market demand and supply [1][2] - The export orders index improved slightly to 47.2%, indicating resilience in external demand despite previous challenges [2] - The manufacturing production activity expectation index rose to 53.7%, reflecting increased optimism among manufacturers regarding future market conditions [3][4] Policy and Market Outlook - The government is focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and investment, particularly in the context of ongoing economic recovery challenges [4] - Analysts predict that as policy effects continue to materialize and with the upcoming peak production season, various economic indicators are expected to improve further [4]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 8 月 PMI：新动能或主要支撑经济修复 —2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 8 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%，较 7 月回升 0.1 个百分点，说明 经济维持修复态势，经济的主要支撑来自政策组合拳协同共振，内生动能尚 有一定改善空间。从结构上看，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界 点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点，说明制造业 有效需求依然承压，供给侧的韧性主要来自工业稳增长政策效能释放。我们 认为，前期的"两重"和"两新"等政策稳步发力，新近推出的财政贴息、加 强全国碳市场建设、金融支持新型工业化、"人工智能+"行动等政策也更多 支撑新动能。 从重点行业来看，新动能加快扩张，传统产业边际改善。8 月高技术制造业和 装备制造业 PMI 分别为 51.9%和 50.5%，比上月上升 1.3 和 0.2 个百分点， 支撑引领作用持续增强；消费品行业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分 点；高耗能行业 PMI 为 48.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气水平连续回 升。 大类资产方面，我们认 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved market demand [3][4] - The production index for August is 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in production activities [3][4] - The raw material purchase price index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating accelerating raw material prices, while the factory price index has also increased for three months, reaching the highest point since 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the high-tech manufacturing PMI is 51.9%, up 1.3 percentage points, with both production and new order indices rising to around 54% [4] - Large enterprises continue to show stable expansion, with a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating robust supply and demand dynamics [6] - Market demand is stabilizing, and production is expanding steadily, supported by macroeconomic policies and the upcoming peak production season [6] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [11] - The service sector business activity index is 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, reaching a year-high, driven by summer consumption and supportive policies [11] - Industries such as capital market services, railway transportation, and telecommunications are experiencing high business activity indices above 60%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [14]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand, with notable performance in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [2] - The purchasing activities have accelerated, with the purchasing volume index rising to 50.4% [2] - The prices of major raw materials and factory prices increased, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 2: Enterprise Size and Sector Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion [3] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 48.9%, reflecting a downturn in economic conditions [3] - Small enterprises experienced a slight improvement with PMI at 46.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors showed strong performance with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, marking a significant recovery and the highest point of the year [5] - Certain industries, such as capital market services and transportation, reported business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating robust growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, reflecting a slowdown [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index increased to 50.5%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were reported at 50.8% and 50.3%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion [6]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, Henan Province's GDP grew by 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points, highlighting its role as a key economic province [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - Henan is focusing on the "Unified National Market" as a key task for 2025, aiming to enhance its geographical advantages and transform from a "geographical hub" to an "economic hub" [1] - The province is addressing the challenges of economic circulation by emphasizing three key actions: "breaking," "establishing," and "connecting" [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Improvements - A significant logistical issue was identified at Zhengzhou Airport, where goods had to navigate a lengthy route of over 100 meters due to multiple checkpoints, taking at least one hour [3][5] - A new checkpoint was established between the Zhengzhou Airport North Cargo Area and the New Zheng Comprehensive Bonded Zone, eliminating the need for vehicles to detour through public roads [7] - The implementation of a "big customs clearance model" in 2025 is expected to enhance customs efficiency by 60% and reduce logistics costs by 50% [9] Group 3: Trade Growth - In the first seven months, Henan's foreign trade reached a record high of 483.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, outpacing the national growth rate of 18.8% [11] Group 4: Business Environment Optimization - Henan is improving the business environment by enhancing information sharing and collaboration, making cross-provincial business operations smoother [12] - The introduction of a "dedicated service" system in Xinye County has streamlined the approval process for cross-provincial projects, reducing the number of required approvals from 12 to 5 [16] Group 5: Industrial Development - The equipment manufacturing industry in Henan has seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% in added value, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate by 5.9 percentage points [24] - The standardization of components in the lifting equipment sector has led to a 50% increase in parts circulation and a 12 percentage point rise in technology transfer rates [22]