Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI declined in July, influenced by seasonal factors and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies aimed at capacity management in key industries, which has led to an increase in raw material prices. Additionally, weak real estate demand has negatively impacted domestic demand [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the services business activity index was 50.0%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The marginal decline in manufacturing PMI aligns with seasonal trends, with some regions experiencing supply and demand disruptions due to extreme weather conditions. There is a notable divergence in PMI performance between large and small enterprises [2]. - Production has entered a low season, with demand showing a greater-than-seasonal slowdown. Certain sectors, such as railway, shipping, aerospace, and computer communication, continue to see new orders in the expansion zone, likely due to ongoing equipment upgrade policies. Conversely, sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products remain below the critical point due to insufficient end-demand amid real estate pressures [2]. Services Sector - The service sector remains stable, supported by seasonal factors. The tourism-related industries have seen increased activity due to summer holiday effects, with transportation, postal, and entertainment sectors maintaining high business activity indices. However, real estate and residential services are in contraction zones, indicating weaker performance [3]. - The construction industry has experienced a greater-than-seasonal decline in activity, primarily due to weak real estate demand and a slowdown in fiscal spending on infrastructure projects. Future improvements in construction activity are anticipated, supported by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3]. Policy and Investment Outlook - The central political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements. The focus should be on three main lines: first, the "anti-involution" policies are expected to adjust supply-side dynamics in certain industries, potentially boosting price levels; second, 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer upgrades will be allocated in July, with remaining funds to be disbursed in October, supporting consumption; third, urban renewal projects are likely to enhance investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and the renovation of old urban areas [4].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Group 1: Global Service Trade Overview - In Q1 2025, global service trade growth slowed to 5% year-on-year, approximately half of the growth rates in 2024 and 2023 [1] - The slowdown is attributed to the appreciation of the US dollar against the euro and other currencies, along with increased economic uncertainty [1] - Service exports from Europe and North America grew by only 3% year-on-year, down from 8% and 11% in Q1 2024, while Asia maintained a strong growth rate of 9% [1] Group 2: Key Sectors Impacting Service Trade - The primary reason for the overall slowdown in service trade is the "other business services" category, which includes a variety of services delivered mainly in a digital format [3] - In Q1 2025, exports of "other business services" from the US grew by 4%, down from 8% in the same period of 2024, while EU exports remained flat in USD terms but grew by 4% in euro terms [3] - Financial services exports grew by only 3% year-on-year, reflecting reduced investment activity due to global economic uncertainty, with EU and US exports growing by 2% and Swiss exports declining by 3% [3] Group 3: Construction and Travel Services - Global construction exports fell by 15% in Q1 2025, partially offsetting a strong 25% growth in the same period of 2024, indicating weakness in major economies like China, South Korea, and the EU [4] - Despite economic challenges, international travel grew by 5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with Asia seeing a 13% increase in travel revenue, led by significant growth in China (96%) and other countries [5] Group 4: Regional Performance - In the first five months of 2025, Asian economies showed double-digit growth in service trade exports, with China growing by 13%, India by 12%, and Japan by 11% [6] - In North America, the US service exports grew by 5%, while Canada experienced a decline of 6% [7] - The EU saw a 3% increase in service exports to non-member countries, with the UK showing significant growth in both exports (9%) and imports (13%) [7]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强 耿佩璇 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产表现分化，基建开工有所回暖，港口货运量仍在上行。 【工业生产】工业生产表现分化。 本周，高炉开工率同比小幅回升，录得1.2%。化工链生产有所回落， 纯碱、PTA开工同比分别-3.3pct至-6.0%、-1.2pct至-1.0%。汽车半钢胎开工仍不及去年同期，同比-0.2pct 至-3.3%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工表现分化。 本周，全国粉磨开工率同比-3.9pct至-6.2%；水泥出货率仍在低 位，同比-2.6pct至-3.0%。沥青开工率有所回升，同比+1.0pct至0.3%。 【下游需求】地产成交有所回升，港口货运量仍在上行。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积偏弱，同比 +20pct至-6.1%。货运方面，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量回升，同比分别+5.2pct至 13.3%、+6.3pct至11.5% ；但集运价格延续回落、环比-3.2%。人流出行强度小幅回升，全国迁徙规模指 数同比+0.4pct至17.8%。国内执行航班架次同比+0.7pct至2.5%。 1. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产表现分化，基 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential for valuation improvement in Hong Kong's infrastructure sector, particularly in transportation assets, amid a declining interest rate cycle [1] - The CR450 high-speed train is expected to be operational by the end of 2026, with a 22% reduction in energy consumption and a 4% increase in traction efficiency, significantly enhancing high-speed rail operational capacity [1] - The transportation industry is showing structural opportunities, with high-speed rail technology upgrades and stable dividends in the infrastructure sector being key highlights [1] Group 2 - The transportation ETF (561320) tracks the mainland transportation index (000945), which includes representative companies from various sectors such as railways, highways, aviation, and shipping [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of the domestic transportation industry, with constituent stocks typically having high market influence and industry representation [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider related ETFs, such as the Guotai Zhongzheng Mainland Transportation Theme ETF [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japan is steadily moving towards escaping deflation, with a stable upward trend in wages and prices, marking a long-term economic recovery phase [1][2]. - The economic recovery is characterized as being driven by the service sector, contrasting with previous recoveries that were led by exports and production [2]. - The white paper highlights the potential downward risks to Japan's economy from U.S. tariff measures, indicating a need for caution regarding their impact [1][2]. Group 2 - The report notes that personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's GDP, is recovering slowly despite improvements in disposable income and financial asset balances [2]. - Consumer sentiment is negatively affected by the belief that wage increases are not sustainable and that price increases will continue, leading to higher savings rates among households, particularly single-person households [3]. - To achieve a robust recovery in personal consumption, stable price increases and faster wage growth are deemed essential, along with policies aimed at enhancing social security and reducing uncertainties about retirement [3].

Business Outlook - The overall expectation for business conditions in Q3 2025 is less optimistic, with 10% of respondents anticipating better conditions compared to 18% expecting worse conditions, indicating a negative sentiment [1] - Compared to Q2 2025, the proportion of respondents expecting better business conditions in Q3 2025 has slightly increased from 9% to 10%, while the proportion expecting worse conditions remains stable at 18% [1] Industry Analysis - In several industries, respondents generally expect a decline in business/output volume for Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, particularly in construction, transportation, warehousing and express services, import and export trade, accommodation and food services, and retail [2] Employment Expectations - Overall, respondents expect employment numbers to remain relatively unchanged in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025. However, in the information and communications sector, more respondents anticipate a decline in employment numbers, while in the real estate sector, more expect an increase [3] Pricing Expectations - Most industries expect product prices/service charges to remain stable in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025. Notably, in the construction industry, a significant number of respondents expect a decrease in bidding prices [4] - A government spokesperson noted a slight improvement in the overall short-term business outlook for large enterprises compared to the previous quarter, with stable hiring intentions [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The conference call discusses China Shenhua Energy Company, which operates in multiple sectors including coal, power generation, coal chemical, and transportation [1][2]. Key Financial Metrics - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 338.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 58.6 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2024, revenue was 69.5 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 41% compared to over 80 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [2]. - The total profit for Q1 2025 is projected to decline by 16.6% [4]. Coal Industry Insights - The coal price has significantly decreased, with the current market price falling below the production and sales costs, impacting overall performance [2]. - The production volume reached 327 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while sales volume was 459 million tons, supported by policy measures [2]. - The average spot sales price was 617 yuan per ton, down 1.8% year-on-year [3]. Cost and Profitability - The sales cost increased by 1.45% year-on-year, with self-produced coal costs remaining stable at 179 yuan per ton [3]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 30% [3]. - The transportation segment saw a decline in gross profit margins due to rising costs, with railway transport turnover increasing by 0.9% [5]. Power Generation Performance - The power generation segment showed resilience, with profits increasing by 2% in 2024, driven by a 5.3% increase in electricity consumption [4]. - However, Q1 2024 saw a decline in total power generation and consumption due to seasonal demand fatigue [4]. Future Outlook and Risks - The company is focusing on new projects in the coal and power sectors, with significant capital expenditures planned [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.72, 2.80, and 2.77 yuan, respectively [8]. - Risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, insufficient domestic demand, and potential impacts from state-owned enterprise reforms [8]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 76.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [7]. Market and Policy Environment - The company is actively managing its market value and has room for growth despite current challenges [9]. - The credit rating for coal-related businesses remains high, indicating low default risk, although the sector is cyclical [10]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the challenges faced by China Shenhua Energy in the coal and power sectors, while also emphasizing the company's strategic focus on new projects and maintaining a strong dividend policy amidst a fluctuating market environment [11].

Group 1 - Japan's manufacturing confidence has slightly improved in July, with the manufacturing sentiment index rising from +6 in June to +7 in July, driven by a recovery in the semiconductor industry [1] - The service sector sentiment index has remained unchanged at +30 for the third consecutive month, indicating stability in service industry confidence [1] - The electronic machinery sector index improved from -16 in June to -4 in July, while the chemical sector index rose from +12 to +18, attributed to better chip demand [1] Group 2 - The transportation machinery sector index, which includes Japan's key automotive industry, decreased from +20 in June to +9 in July, with concerns over the impact of a 25% U.S. tariff on exports and costs [1] - Overall service sector confidence showed mixed results, with wholesalers experiencing improved confidence, while sectors such as real estate, retail, IT, and transportation saw declines compared to June [1]

注：本公司收购国家能源集团杭锦能源有限责任公司（"杭锦能源"）100%股权的交 易已完成。自 2025 年 2 月起，本公司主要运营指标包含杭锦能源相关业务量，并对上年同 期本公司主要运营指标进行了重述。 证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2025-036 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 月 6 | 累计 | 月 6 | 累计 | 月 6 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 27.6 | 165.4 | 28.0 | 168.2 | (1.4) | (1.7) | | 煤炭 ...