中航期货 2026-3-13 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has identified resilient "winners" in the current rising oil price environment, specifically focusing on Hong Kong stocks, all of which are rated as "overweight" [1] Group 1: Company Targets - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) has a target price set at HKD 13 [1] - China Hongqiao Group Limited (01378) has a target price set at HKD 40 [1] - Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (601600) (02600) has a target price set at HKD 16 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (600188) (01171) has a target price set at HKD 12 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has identified resilient "winners" in the current oil price rally, specifically focusing on Hong Kong stocks, all of which are rated as "overweight" [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Target Prices - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) has a target price set at HKD 13 [1] - China Hongqiao Group Limited (01378) has a target price set at HKD 40 [1] - Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (02600) has a target price set at HKD 16 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (01171) has a target price set at HKD 12 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices have led to concerns about overseas aluminum supply. Although Qatar has suspended production cuts after a 40% reduction, transportation disruptions still cause concerns about raw material supply. If the situation persists, the scope of production cuts may expand. In China, downstream industries are resuming production, with aluminum rods showing a de - stocking trend and aluminum ingots still slightly accumulating inventory. Export data shows high - speed growth, and the overseas supply - demand gap is expected to widen. Rising overseas electricity prices support the upward potential of aluminum prices, but the risk of recession trading due to rising oil prices should be watched out for. The alumina market remains stable, but there is a risk of rising freight rates, and the domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 25,260 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 110 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 25,110 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 25,190 yuan/ton, with a change of 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount has changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,270 yuan/ton, closed at 25,240 yuan/ton, with a change of 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,490 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 25,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 319,158 lots, and the position was 205,970 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.294 million tons, with a change of 23,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 358,635 tons, with a change of 7,944 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 447,300 tons, with a change of - 2,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On March 12, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,650 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,700 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,880 yuan/ton, closed at 2,865 yuan/ton, with a change of 16 yuan/ton (0.56%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,924 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,858 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 585,975 lots, and the position was 295,463 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 12, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 58,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 74,600 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,980 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 720 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices have led to concerns about overseas supply. Although Qatar has suspended production cuts after a 40% reduction, transportation disruptions still cause concerns about raw material supply. If the situation persists, the scope of production cuts may expand. In China, downstream industries are resuming production, with aluminum rods showing a de - stocking trend and aluminum ingots still slightly accumulating inventory. Export data shows high - speed growth, and the overseas supply - demand gap is expected to widen. Rising overseas electricity prices support the upward potential of aluminum prices, but the risk of recession trading due to rising oil prices should be watched out for [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, 50,000 tons of alumina were traded at FOB 302 US dollars/ton in East Australia for April shipment. The domestic and overseas alumina spot markets are basically stable, but there is a risk of rising freight rates due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and social inventory is still rising. New production capacity in Guangxi is imminent. Although the price of bauxite has risen slightly, it will not affect alumina production for the time being. The pressure of expiring warehouse receipts in the next three months is not large, and the inter - month spread is conducive to alleviating the release of warehouse receipt pressure, but the contradiction between the premium of the futures market over the spot warehouse receipts is increasing [7][8].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Company Overview - The company focuses on the upstream aluminum industry chain, primarily engaged in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. It ranks as the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in North China and the twelfth in China by 2024 production capacity [3][4]. Industry Insights - The electrolytic aluminum industry is constrained by a capacity ceiling, with an annual supply growth rate of only 1.5%-2%. In contrast, total demand growth driven by electricity and industrial needs exceeds 2%, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance and an upward trend in aluminum prices [2][4]. - Global electricity competition is accelerating the exit of electrolytic aluminum capacity, with overseas production cuts exceeding expectations. The company benefits from low-cost self-supplied electricity and overseas increments, projecting a net profit of 5-6 billion yuan in 2026 [2][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company currently has a production capacity of 788,100 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 1.2 million tons of alumina. After the completion of a 2 million-ton alumina project, total capacity will reach 3.2 million tons [2][3]. - The cost of imported bauxite has significantly decreased, with the CIF average price expected to drop by 43% year-on-year to $66 per ton by January 2026, enhancing profit margins [2][6]. - The company’s cash cost is positioned in the top 50% of the global cost curve, allowing for an excess profit of approximately 3,800 yuan compared to lower-cost competitors [6]. Cost Control Strategies - The company is optimizing its power structure through a 1,750 MW wind and solar installation in Inner Mongolia, which will increase the proportion of green electricity to 52%. This is expected to reduce electricity costs from 0.33-0.37 yuan per kWh to 0.1-0.18 yuan per kWh, saving around 1 billion yuan annually [2][7]. International Expansion - A 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia is expected to commence production in 2027, leveraging low electricity costs of 0.2 yuan per kWh and logistical advantages. The project is projected to have a profit margin of nearly 10,000 yuan per ton and an internal rate of return exceeding 22% [2][7][10]. Market Concerns - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of aluminum price growth, with the market potentially overestimating future capacity growth and underestimating production cuts in Western countries. The global supply of new electrolytic aluminum capacity is constrained by insufficient electricity supply [8][9]. Future Projections - Under conservative assumptions, the company’s net profit is expected to reach 5 billion yuan in 2026, with a market valuation approaching 60 billion yuan. If aluminum prices exceed 25,000 yuan per ton, profits could exceed 6 billion yuan [9][10]. - The valuation could exceed 80 billion yuan post-Saudi project integration, indicating potential for a doubling of market value within three years [10].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：地缘局势胶着 铝价仍偏强运行 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强运行。昨夜数据显示，2 月美国 CPI 同比上涨 2.4%， 这份数据反映的是中东冲突前的美国通胀状况，考虑到近期国际油价一度 飙升，且霍尔木兹海峡仍处于封锁当中，目前尚无法排除美国通胀压力反 弹的风险。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of the situation in the Middle East has introduced force majeure factors in the electrolytic aluminum industry, leading to potential supply disruptions and price increases for aluminum [1][5]. Company Summary - China Hongqiao (01378) saw its stock price increase by 3.53%, reaching HKD 39.88, with a trading volume of HKD 870 million [1][5]. - The company is expected to be a key beneficiary if there are supply interruptions in the aluminum industry due to the geopolitical situation [1][5]. Industry Summary - Morgan Stanley believes that coal and aluminum stocks are likely to outperform the market in the short term, recommending investment in quality mining companies [1][5]. - The aluminum production in the Middle East is approximately 6.8 million tons annually, with a net export surplus of about 5 million tons, accounting for 7% of global aluminum production [1][5]. - If there is a significant disruption in aluminum supply from the region, aluminum prices could rise rapidly to USD 4,000 per ton, making it the most asymmetric upward commodity among base metals [1][5]. - Rising energy and shipping costs, which account for one-third of smelting costs, will further drive up aluminum prices [1][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that aluminum stocks in Hong Kong have risen significantly due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, which have negatively impacted supply prospects and driven aluminum prices to a near four-year high [1] - Two major smelting plants in the Middle East, located in Qatar and Bahrain, have been forced to suspend deliveries, prompting U.S. buyers to urgently seek alternative supplies from Asia [1] - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the widening aluminum supply-demand gap and increased vulnerabilities from the U.S.-Iran conflict, combined with global positive fiscal and monetary policies, suggest that aluminum prices are likely to reach new highs [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that with low-cost conditions, the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to further widen [1] - The rising prices of energy and alumina have led CICC to recommend focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in electricity and alumina, specifically highlighting Nanshan Aluminum International, China Hongqiao, and China Aluminum [1] - The stock performance of key aluminum companies includes: Innovation Industry up 8.28%, China Aluminum up 5.39%, China Hongqiao up 4.26%, Nanshan Aluminum International up 3.74%, and Rusal up 4.23% [2]

Group 1 - Aluminum stocks in Hong Kong have risen, with Innovation Industry leading the gains at over 8%, followed by China Aluminum at 5.5%, China Hongqiao at over 4%, Rusal at 4.2%, and Nanshan Aluminum International at 3.7% [1] - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has negatively impacted supply prospects, causing aluminum prices to reach their highest level in nearly four years [1] - At least two major smelting plants in the Middle East, located in Qatar and Bahrain, have been forced to suspend deliveries, prompting U.S. buyers to urgently seek alternative supplies from Asia [1] Group 2 - CICC's report indicates that the aluminum supply-demand gap is widening, and the vulnerabilities brought by the U.S.-Iran conflict, combined with positive global fiscal and monetary policies, suggest that aluminum prices may reach new highs [1] - With low-cost conditions, the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to further widen, and the report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in electricity and alumina, specifically highlighting Nanshan Aluminum International, China Hongqiao, and China Aluminum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to supply disruption risks in the aluminum industry, with potential significant impacts on aluminum prices and companies like China Hongqiao [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - China Hongqiao's stock rose by 4.21%, reaching HKD 40.14, with a trading volume of HKD 534 million [1] Group 2: Supply Disruption Risks - JPMorgan believes the market is underestimating the risk of supply interruptions in the aluminum sector, noting that the Middle East produces 6.8 million tons of aluminum annually, with a net export surplus of 5 million tons, accounting for 7% of global aluminum production [1] - If there is a substantial disruption in aluminum supply from the Middle East, aluminum prices could surge to USD 4,000 per ton, making it the most asymmetric upward commodity among base metals [1] - Rising energy and shipping costs, which account for one-third of smelting costs, will further drive up aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors, leading to frequent supply disruptions [1] - Qatar Aluminum has halted production due to a suspension of natural gas supply, while Bahrain Aluminum faces transportation disruptions due to regional conflicts [1] - Mozambique's aluminum plant has announced plans for maintenance shutdowns due to prior electricity contract issues [1] Group 4: Demand Recovery - The demand side is still in a recovery phase, with domestic social inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - If geopolitical conflicts persist, expectations for tightening global electrolytic aluminum supply are strong, indicating significant upward pressure on aluminum prices [1]