Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the cost calculation of battery cells under the price fluctuations in the lithium carbonate industry chain [1] Group 2: Industry Price Trends - Since the second half of 2025, prices in the lithium battery industry chain have shown significant differentiation, with upstream raw materials being the core driving force for the price increase. Imported lithium concentrate increased by 231.0%, battery - grade lithium carbonate by 160.2%, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide by 147.3%. Cobalt - related raw materials also showed strong growth, with electrolytic cobalt rising 84.4% and cobalt sulfate 90.8% [3] - The price increase pressure of raw materials was transmitted to the cathode material segment, but the increase was significantly narrowed. The increases of lithium iron phosphate and lithium cobalt oxide since the second half of 2025 were 76.3% and 81.2% respectively, and the increases of ternary series precursors and cathode materials were in the range of 30% - 37%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key raw material for electrolytes, increased by over 200%. The price changes in the anode material and separator segments were limited, and the price of 8μm copper foil increased by 28.1% [3] - The price transmission in the downstream battery cell segment lagged significantly behind that of the mid - and upstream segments. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate battery cells decreased slightly by 2.5%, the energy - storage type increased by only 5.4%, and the 811 ternary battery cells increased by only 8.2% [4] Group 3: Battery Cost Changes - Referring to the average lithium price of 75,000 yuan/ton in 2025, the theoretical total cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells was 0.30 yuan/Wh. The cost of the cathode material lithium iron phosphate was only 0.08 yuan/Wh, and the electrolyte cost was 0.03 yuan/Wh. The cost of copper foil accounted for a similar proportion to the cathode material [19] - When the lithium price rose to 150,000 yuan/ton, the total cost of battery cells increased to 0.39 yuan/Wh (+31% compared to the 2025 average). The cathode cost increased to 0.13 yuan/Wh (+67%), and the electrolyte cost increased by 76%. The contribution of the two lithium - containing main materials to the increase in the theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells was 57.5% and 26.1% respectively, and the copper foil cost increased by 20% with a contribution of about 16% [21] - Assuming the cost of non - lithium raw materials is fixed, if the lithium carbonate price further rises to 200,000 yuan/ton or 250,000 yuan/ton, the theoretical battery cost will increase by about 9% and 16% respectively on the basis of 150,000 yuan/ton [21] Group 4: Follow - up Impact - The theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells has risen with the recovery of lithium prices, but the adjustment of terminal battery prices lags significantly. As of January 9, the price of SMM's third - party lithium iron phosphate battery cells was only about 6% higher than the 2025 average [26] - The lithium battery industry chain may be entering a price transmission cycle driven by raw material price increases. Suzhou Dejia Energy has announced a 15% increase in battery product prices. If the upstream lithium price remains high, the demand for cost pressure transmission to the terminal will continue to increase, and more battery cell enterprises are expected to follow up with price adjustments [26]

Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate futures has risen above 170,000 yuan per ton, indicating a comprehensive price increase throughout the lithium battery industry chain from upstream to downstream [1] - By 2025, China's high-quality lithium resources will undergo a strategic reassessment, highlighted by the discovery of a world-class lithium mineral belt spanning 2,800 kilometers across four provinces, significantly increasing China's lithium resource share from 6% to 16.5%, elevating its global ranking from sixth to second [1] - The lithium mineral belt has confirmed over 6.5 million tons of proven resources, with total potential exceeding 30 million tons, marking a significant breakthrough in national mining exploration efforts [1] Group 2 - The recycling of lithium from retired batteries is gaining momentum, with production expected to reach 10,010 tons by December 2025, accounting for 10.1% of total output, indicating a rapid commercialization and scaling of lithium resource recycling [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by three sectors: electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics, with electric vehicle battery production projected to reach 1,245.5 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.9% [2] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 12.809 million units in 2025, reflecting a 17.6% year-on-year growth and a retail penetration rate of 54% [2] Group 3 - The energy storage battery industry in China is set for significant expansion, with production expected to reach 344 GWh and 529.43 GWh in 2024 and 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 83.8% and 53.9% [3] - The growth in energy storage demand is driven by the explosive growth of AIDC and photovoltaic storage, supported by policy measures aimed at enhancing the national electricity market system [3] Group 4 - Since early 2026, the lithium battery industry's downstream demand has remained strong, contributing to rising lithium carbonate prices, with export tax rebates for battery products set to decrease from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026 [4] - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to positively impact first-quarter export demand, although the release of pent-up demand may be limited compared to other industries like photovoltaics [4] - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advised to manage risks and seize opportunities for profit-taking while being cautious of inventory price fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry, particularly the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) sector, is experiencing a significant "game" between upstream manufacturers and downstream battery producers, with intense price negotiations and potential supply chain disruptions [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Upstream LFP manufacturers have faced nearly three years of losses and are eager to raise prices, while downstream battery manufacturers are seeing prices decline [2]. - A procurement agreement between Rongbai Technology and CATL worth over 120 billion yuan has sparked market discussions, potentially marking the largest order in the LFP industry [2][5]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has requested a comprehensive self-examination from Rongbai Technology regarding the procurement agreement, focusing on its ability to fulfill the contract [2][6]. Group 2: Production and Supply Challenges - Major LFP manufacturers, including Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy, have announced production halts for maintenance, which is seen as a collective effort to pressure battery manufacturers for higher processing fees [4]. - In early 2026, it was reported that most clients accepted a processing fee increase of 1,000 yuan per ton, indicating some success in the manufacturers' strategy [4]. - Rongbai Technology is expected to supply 3.05 million tons of LFP materials to CATL over six years, averaging over 500,000 tons annually, despite currently having only 60,000 tons of production capacity [5][7]. Group 3: Technological Developments - Rongbai Technology claims its LFP products utilize a revolutionary process that reduces production steps from 15 to 6, lowering investment costs by approximately 40% and energy consumption by about 30% [8]. - The new "RB one-step process" developed by Rongbai Technology is based on first principles and aims to simplify production, although it is currently only at the pilot stage [9]. - Other companies, such as GCL-Poly, are also exploring one-step production methods, which are reported to have lower investment costs compared to traditional methods [10]. Group 4: Industry Concerns - There are concerns regarding Rongbai Technology's ability to meet the supply commitments outlined in the agreement with CATL, as their current production capacity is significantly lower than required [6][8]. - Industry experts have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of Rongbai Technology's new production technology, citing challenges in impurity removal and the potential for aggregation issues [11].

Core Viewpoint - Company Rongbai Technology has signed a significant six-year procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, amounting to over 120 billion yuan, which is three times the company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates a total supply of 3.05 million tons of products from Q1 2026 to 2031, marking it as the largest single procurement agreement in industry history [1] - The average price of the order is calculated at approximately 39,300 yuan per ton, which is over 30% lower than the current market price of around 55,000 yuan per ton [4][5] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an inquiry regarding the compliance and performance capability of the agreement, questioning whether the company exaggerated its statements or used the large contract to manipulate stock prices [2] - The company’s current production capacity of 6,000 tons per year is significantly lower than the average annual supply requirement of approximately 508,000 tons, indicating a gap of over ten times [4] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The agreement is part of the company's strategic shift from ternary cathode materials to lithium iron phosphate, aiming to establish itself as a core supplier in the lithium battery supply chain [6] - The company plans to achieve a production capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate by 2026 and aims for a total of 3 million tons across various regions by 2030 [6] Group 4: Historical Context - This is not the first collaboration between Rongbai Technology and CATL; previous agreements include a strategic cooperation for high-nickel ternary materials and sodium battery cathode materials [7] - The trend of long-term agreements in the lithium battery industry is becoming more common, with other companies also entering into significant contracts with CATL [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the transformation of Zaozhuang from a traditional coal city to a new lithium battery city, showcasing its industrial innovation and practices as a model for Shandong's economic strategy [2][3] - Zaozhuang has developed a comprehensive lithium battery industry with 128 companies, earning the title of "China's New Energy Battery City," indicating a significant shift from its previous coal-dominated economy [3] - The integration of innovation and industry is highlighted as a key driver for Zaozhuang's transformation, with a focus on creating mechanisms that bridge policy and industry needs [3] Group 2 - The emphasis on practical performance and real-world training for officials aims to build a capable workforce that can effectively support the city's transformation [4] - Zaozhuang's development strategy prioritizes improving living standards alongside economic growth, demonstrating a commitment to both industrial advancement and enhancing public welfare [4] - The transformation story of Zaozhuang serves as a comprehensive example of industrial restructuring, innovative mechanisms, workforce development, and improvements in public welfare, providing a solid foundation for Shandong's economic ambitions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Company Rongbai Technology signed a six-year procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, totaling 3.05 million tons and exceeding 120 billion yuan, which is three times the company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 [2][5] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement is the largest single procurement contract in industry history, covering core materials for energy storage and power batteries [2] - The average price of the order is approximately 39,300 yuan per ton, which is over 30% lower than the current market price of around 55,000 yuan per ton [5][6] - The company plans to expand its production capacity to 600,000 tons by 2026 and aims for over 1 million tons by 2028 [7] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an inquiry regarding the compliance and performance capability of the agreement, questioning potential exaggeration or stock price manipulation [3][5] - Concerns were raised about the company's current production capacity of only 60,000 tons per year, which is significantly lower than the average annual supply requirement of approximately 508,000 tons [5] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The agreement reflects Rongbai Technology's strategic shift from ternary cathode materials to lithium iron phosphate, aiming to establish itself as a core supplier in the lithium battery supply chain [6][9] - The company has previously collaborated with CATL, indicating a deepening partnership, with prior agreements for high-nickel ternary materials and sodium battery cathode materials [8][9] Group 4: Industry Context - The trend of long-term agreements in the lithium battery industry is increasing, with other companies also entering into significant contracts with CATL [9] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with major players reshaping supply chains by prioritizing technology, cost control, and delivery schedules over traditional procurement commitments [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is weakening. The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate, along with related indicators such as basis, registered warehouse receipts, and supply - demand relationships, are analyzed [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - Futures market: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Spot market: The spot price of lithium carbonate was 163,050 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Basis analysis: The current basis was - 2,330 points (spot discount), 5,910 points stronger than the previous day, with the basis fluctuating in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate was 27,158 lots, an increase of 260 lots (+0.97%) from the previous day, showing an overall increase in the past 10 trading days [5]. - Supply - demand relationship: Some domestic lithium salt production lines are undergoing seasonal maintenance [5]. 3.2 Industry Dynamics - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 19,640 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the settlement price was 165,380 yuan/ton, down 2,480 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 23,860 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium spodumene: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates, as well as South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore, have different price ranges and changes compared with the previous day and 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium mica: The prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market have increased compared with the previous day and 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 163,050 yuan/ton, up 3,430 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 29,520 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 154,120 yuan/ton, up 3,560 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 30,060 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. - Ternary materials and related products: The prices of some ternary precursors and materials have changed to varying degrees compared with 5 trading days ago, while some prices remained unchanged compared with the previous day [7]. - Downstream products: The price of cobalt acid lithium (≥60%, domestic) was 396,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 11,500 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 25,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [7]. 3.3 Related Charts - Ore and lithium prices: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference [9]. - Cathode & ternary materials: There are charts showing the prices of manganese acid lithium, domestic iron phosphate lithium, domestic cobalt acid lithium (≥60%), ternary precursors, and ternary materials [12]. - Other related data of lithium carbonate futures: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of the lithium carbonate main contract [20].

Market Overview - On January 14, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 161,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,000 CNY from the previous working day, indicating heightened market observation sentiment [1] - The settlement price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remained stable at 138,000 CNY/ton [1] - Lithium carbonate futures opened high but closed lower at 161,940 CNY/ton, down 5,920 CNY from the previous working day, with a continued decrease in open interest [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on January 14 showed the following changes: - Lithium concentrate increased from 2,160 CNY to 2,200 CNY, a rise of 40 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 16.05 to 16.15 CNY, an increase of 0.1 CNY [2] - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased from 5.39 to 5.41 CNY, up by 0.02 CNY [2] - Ternary materials rose from 18.9 to 19.4 CNY, an increase of 0.5 CNY [2] Industry Sentiment - There is significant concern regarding the ability of second-tier energy storage companies to withstand rising lithium carbonate prices, with current cost levels around 150,000 CNY [6] - Opinions are divided; some bearish analysts believe rising costs will limit the enthusiasm of energy storage companies, potentially affecting lithium carbonate demand, while bullish analysts argue that even if some companies face losses, it could lead to industry consolidation and reduced price competition, benefiting long-term demand [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the lithium carbonate market will experience wide fluctuations in the short term due to increased risk pressures and a dampened speculative atmosphere [7] - Supply from Chile and Brazil is expected to remain constrained until at least February, and the recovery of certain production sites will take longer [7] - The medium to long-term market trajectory will depend on cost transmission and its impact on energy storage demand in the second half of the year [7]

Group 1 - The core event is that Rongbai has secured a significant contract with CATL to supply 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials from Q1 2026 to 2031, with a total sales value exceeding 120 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Rongbai has developed a black technology for lithium iron phosphate, reducing the traditional 14-15 processing steps to 6, resulting in a 40% reduction in investment costs and a 30% decrease in energy consumption, achieving performance levels comparable to fourth and fifth generation technologies [2] Group 3 - Cost reduction measures include: - Capacity planning utilizing two existing plants in Guizhou, aiming to expand production to 600,000 tons by the end of 2026 and 1 million tons by the end of 2027, with a focus on short process flows and high equipment density for rapid and low-cost expansion [3] Group 4 - Specific cost reduction initiatives involve: 1) Collaboration with Guizhou Steel to utilize low-grade iron and steel for production [5] 2) Partnering with a base to source phosphate and introduce phosphate chemical enterprises, targeting a future production of 1 million tons of phosphate [5] 3) Incorporating natural gas and green electricity as cost-saving measures [5] 4) Utilizing wet processing for lithium purification from low-grade salt lake lithium carbonate [5] Group 5 - The procurement strategy for battery cells by major manufacturers balances performance and cost considerations [8] - BYD is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia [8] Group 6 - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market that exceeds that of the power market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the creation and significance of a comprehensive lithium battery industry chain distribution map, which has gained high acclaim in the industry since its launch in 2022, highlighting its unique value and far-reaching impact [1]. Group 1: Overview of the Lithium Battery Industry Chain Distribution Map - The distribution map meticulously outlines the entire ecosystem of the global lithium battery industry, covering raw materials, four main materials, battery manufacturing, and end applications, involving key enterprises in various sectors [2]. - Key raw materials include lithium carbonate, lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron, lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganese oxide, lithium hydroxide, and basic chemical raw materials like graphite and electrolyte solvents [2]. - The map also focuses on companies involved in the research, production, and supply of battery anode and cathode materials, including both traditional and cutting-edge materials [2]. Group 2: Components and Applications - It includes manufacturers of critical components such as separators and electrolytes, which ensure the safe and efficient operation of batteries [3]. - The battery manufacturing section encompasses various types of lithium-ion batteries, including cylindrical, prismatic, and pouch cells, covering design, production, and assembly [4]. - The map addresses battery recycling and reuse, featuring a whitelist of companies, and highlights end applications in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, consumer electronics, and lightweight power sectors, showcasing the broad application prospects of lithium battery technology [5]. Group 3: Geographic Coverage - The distribution map covers four major lithium battery industry clusters: China, North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, including Japan and South Korea [6]. Group 4: Target Audience and Collaboration - The target investors include global venture capital funds, private equity funds, and industrial investment funds, particularly those focused on new energy and new materials [8]. - Industry enterprises are invited to join the ecosystem, including raw material suppliers, material manufacturers, battery producers, electric vehicle manufacturers, and energy storage solution providers [8]. - Research institutions and universities in the fields of new energy, materials science, and electrochemistry are encouraged to participate in advancing technological innovation and talent cultivation [8]. - Collaboration with local governments and industry associations is emphasized to promote the implementation of lithium battery industry policies and optimize the development environment [8]. Group 5: Invitation for Cooperation - The article extends a sincere invitation for participation in exploring deep cooperation opportunities within the lithium battery industry chain [9].