1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue their downward trend, with a long - term bearish view. The first target for the decline is around 3,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, palm oil has fallen below 8,000 yuan and may seek support in the 7,900 - 8,000 yuan range. - For soybeans, concerns about the US renewable diesel quota policy (RVO) have led to a market decline. If there is no new news on the biodiesel policy, the July contract will fluctuate around the daily mid - track at 48.9 cents, and may fall to 46 cents later. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is increasing, and the spot basis price is expected to decline [1]. Sugar Industry - Although the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, the 25/26 sugar - cane season still has a promising harvest. Short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and sales are strong. The market focus is on future import rhythms, and sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Cotton Industry - Macro - level conditions have marginally improved, but US tariffs on Chinese cotton products remain high, which is unfavorable to domestic export - oriented enterprises. The industry's improvement is not obvious, and short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate after rising, and further increase requires downstream improvement [5]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly next week [8]. Meal Industry - Spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean supply pressure is being realized. In the domestic market, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill operations are rising, but demand is not boosted, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [10]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. There may be an increase in the second - fattening pig supply. The demand is weak, and pig prices are expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is below 14,000, and the market is expected to neither decline sharply nor rise strongly [13][14]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is stable, with the base grain sold out and the right of grain ownership transferred to traders. The price is stable in the northeast and may be slightly adjusted down in the north - central region. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On May 16, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,450 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 12,370, up 13.80%; palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,500, up 13.80%; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,725 [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the sugar 2601 contract was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; the sugar 2509 contract was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The spot price in Nanning was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production reached 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 11.63%; sales were 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 26.07%. The national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 12.97% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the cotton 2601 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,479 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% to 415.26 tons, and the textile industry's inventory decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [5]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the egg 09 contract was 3,788 yuan/500KG, down 0.18%; the egg 06 contract was 2,894 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The egg - producing area price was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.07% [8]. - **Related Data**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 4.15 yuan per bird, down 1.19%; the price of culled hens was 5.22 yuan/jin, down 0.57% [8]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal were 36,286, up 14.2%; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 31,068, down 0.67%; soybean warehouse receipts were 29,758, down 1.13% [10]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the pig 2507 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the pig 2509 contract was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The spot price in Henan was 14,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Industry Data**: The sample - point slaughter rate decreased by 0.32% to 146,383 heads; the self - breeding profit per pig decreased by 4.35% to 81 yuan; the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% to 4,039 million heads [13]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the corn 2507 contract was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hold price of corn was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Industry Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 6.46% to 884; the corn starch warehouse receipts increased by 24.58% to 26,620 [16].

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 目前在产蛋鸡存栏处于增长的趋势之中，根据卓创资讯，截至 4 月末，全国 在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.29 只，3 月末为 13.18 亿只，2 月末为 13.06 亿 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 12 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 目前在产蛋鸡存栏处于增长的趋势之中，根据卓创资讯，截至 4 月末，全国 在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.29 只，3 月末为 13.18 亿只，2 月末为 13.06 亿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff policies, domestic and overseas monetary policies, and trade negotiations. Different asset classes show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. In the bond market, it is advisable to be cautious on the long - end and focus on the short - end. In the commodity market, different strategies are proposed for each commodity based on their fundamentals [2][4][6]. Summary by Category Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.65%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.36%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 129.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.49 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: The National Development and Reform Commission is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects with a total investment of about 3 trillion yuan this year. The Financial Regulatory Administration has established 74 private equity investment funds to support investment in science and technology innovation enterprises. The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms [2]. - **Funding**: The margin trading balance increased by 7.22 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 11.80bp to 1.5390%. The 3 - year corporate bond AA - level interest rate decreased by 2.67bp to 3.0673%, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1.28bp to 1.6330%, and the credit spread decreased by 1.39bp to 143bp [2]. - **PE, PB, Dividend Yield, and Futures Basis Ratio**: PE of CSI 300 is 12.45, etc.; PB of CSI 300 is 1.30, etc.; dividend yield of CSI 300 is 3.52%, etc.; futures basis ratio of IF, IC, IM, and IH shows different values [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts rose 0.26%, 0.17%, 0.16%, and 0.05% respectively [5]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission supports private enterprises to participate in major projects. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged on May 7, and the Bank of England cut the interest rate on May 8 [5][6]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 158.6 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday, with a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious on the long - end as the long - end interest rate has priced in the interest rate cut expectation. The short - end is more cost - effective. Pay attention to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 1.81% to 786.42 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.12% to 8154.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.41% to 3319.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.01% to 32.62 US dollars/ounce [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the UK, and Germany is also working on resolving trade disputes. Overseas trade risks are released, which is a short - term negative factor for gold prices. The US labor market data is still resilient [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait for price corrections to go long on gold. Be cautious on silver and consider short - term shorting or waiting [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper rose 0.73% to 9474 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The copper raw material is in short supply, and the inventory is declining. However, due to inflation expectations and macro uncertainties, copper prices face adjustment pressure [10]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose 1.18% to 2408 US dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 19570 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is under pressure due to tariff policies and weak manufacturing, but inventory reduction provides short - term support [11]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.22% to 22036 yuan/ton. Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc prices may decline further [12]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead index rose 0.50% to 16774 yuan/ton. Lead prices may oscillate in a range in the medium term and show a weak short - term trend [13]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel rose 0.29% to 124000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.35% to 15575 US dollars/ton. The supply of nickel exceeds demand, and it is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin rose 0.10% to 263090 yuan/ton. The supply of tin may turn loose in the future, and tin prices may decline [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The MMLC index fell 0.76%. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has stopped increasing. Pay attention to market changes [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index rose 3.33% to 2793 yuan/ton. Due to uncertainties in production capacity, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel main contract fell 0.04% to 12705 yuan/ton. The market is in a game between policies and fundamentals, and the price may oscillate [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The rebar main contract fell 1.48% to 3052 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.80% to 3191 yuan/ton. The traditional peak season is over, and the demand for steel products is weakening, and the price may oscillate weakly [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract fell 2.05% to 693.50 yuan/ton. The supply has slightly decreased, and the demand may peak and decline. The price may be weak [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices may be weak as the inventory has increased. Soda ash supply is high, and the price may also be weak [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon rose 2.86% to 5758 yuan/ton, and ferrosilicon rose 0.77% to 5472 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see as both are in a downward trend [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon rose 0.30% to 8315 yuan/ton. It is in a supply - surplus situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are oscillating. Thailand may delay rubber tapping, which is a potential positive factor. The demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is recommended to trade with a neutral strategy [35][36][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI crude oil rose 4.02% to 60.28 US dollars, Brent crude oil rose 3.56% to 63.12 US dollars, and INE crude oil fell 1.54% to 461 yuan. It is recommended to take profits on dips and consider short - term long positions [39][41]. - **Methanol**: The 09 - contract of methanol fell 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go short [42]. - **Urea**: The 09 - contract of urea fell 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to wait for a better entry point to go long [43]. - **Styrene**: The 06 - contract of styrene fell 105 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [44]. - **PVC**: The 09 - contract of PVC fell 37 yuan to 4839 yuan. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may oscillate weakly [45][46]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The 09 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 23 yuan to 4222 yuan. The industry is in a de - stocking stage, but there are risks in the medium term. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [47]. - **PTA**: The 09 - contract of PTA rose 80 yuan to 4546 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The short - term valuation has support [48]. - **Para - xylene**: The 09 - contract of para - xylene rose 116 yuan to 6404 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the short - term valuation has support, but the price increase is limited by crude oil [49][50]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price may oscillate as the supply is increasing and the demand is in the off - season [51]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price may oscillate weakly as the supply is stable and the demand is declining [52]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds and wait and see in the short term [54]. - **Egg**: The egg price was stable or declined. It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply is high [55]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean rose slightly. The future soybean supply is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal price may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 spread [56][57]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil export increased, and the production also increased. The oil price may decline due to crude oil and production factors, but there may be support in the medium term [58][59]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic sugar market has good sales, but the price may decline as the international price drops [60][61]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to trade negotiations and inventory changes [62][63].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price in the spot market declined today, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.11 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 06 contract dropped 0.31% [7]. - During the May Day holiday, the egg price was slightly weak, and there was no large - scale restocking after the holiday. Although the cross - regional population flow increased during the holiday, the actual consumption demand was average. If the restocking after the holiday remains sluggish, it is likely that supply and demand have both increased, with supply growing at a larger rate, resulting in the price not rising during the peak season. There is an expectation of Dragon Boat Festival stocking at the end of the month, but the scale is difficult to match that of May Day, and the egg price is likely to remain weak in the long run as June approaches the rainy season [8]. - Affected by the weak spot market, the futures price fluctuated and declined before the holiday and continued to fall after the holiday. The main 06 contract fell below 2900 points. Due to the difficult - to - refute expectation of the rainy season, it will enter the delivery month with a high premium. There is insufficient bullish news for futures, and attention should be paid to the change of the basis. Currently, the 06 basis is still lower than in the previous two years, indicating that there may be room for further downward adjustment of the futures price. In the far - month contracts, the pricing of 08 and 09 is at a moderately low level in history, corresponding to the expectation of increasing production in the future. If the spot price continues to fluctuate weakly, the near - month contracts are not optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2506, 2507, and 2508 all declined today. The 2506 contract closed at 2890, down 9 points or 0.31%; the 2507 contract closed at 3028, down 10 points or 0.33%; the 2508 contract closed at 3665, down 13 points or 0.35%. The trading volumes were 75,935, 28,155, and 22,821 respectively, and the open interests were 123,581, 118,220, and 104,910 respectively, with changes of 3750, 3147, and 4616 respectively [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The egg price was weak during the May Day holiday, and the restocking after the holiday was lackluster. Although the population flow increased during the holiday, the actual consumption was average. The egg price is expected to remain weak in the long run due to the approaching rainy season. The futures price was affected by the weak spot market, and the 06 contract entered the delivery month with a high premium. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of April, the national in - production laying hens inventory was about 1.329 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The inventory has been increasing for four consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In April, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase compared to March and the same period in 2024, ranking third in the past eight years [9]. - **Hen Culling**: The culling volume gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with the absolute value slightly higher than in the previous two years due to the continuous decline in breeding profits. However, the culling volume decreased in the past two weeks. As of April 24, the average culling age was 536 days, the same as the previous week and 2 days earlier than the previous month [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - breeding profits, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the 05 egg contract, the basis of the 06 egg contract, and the price difference between the 05 and 06 egg contracts, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and other platforms [11][17]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 7 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]