证券研究报告·行业点评报告·非银金融 非银金融行业点评报告 公募持仓观察：非银板块景气度持续上行， 细分行业均获增持——25Q2 非银板块公募 持仓分析 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 22 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600123090002 《权益 ETF 系列：大盘预警信号消失， 后续可能持续上涨，关注高景气投资 方向》 2025-07-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -3% 4% 11% 18% 25% 32% 39% 46% 53% 60% 2024/7/22 2024/11/20 2025/3/21 2025/7/20 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《券商中报确认高增长，保险业绩亦 值得期待》 2025-07-20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 事件：2025 年公募基金二季报发布完毕，2025 年二季度末公募基金股 票投资中非银金融行业总持仓 1.93%（含同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that both active and passive fund sizes have rebounded in Q2 2025, with a notable increase in active fund positions and a decrease in stock concentration [1][2] - Active equity funds are focusing on technology, large finance, and military medicine sectors, with a preference for small-cap growth stocks [2][3] - The active fund's total heavy holdings in Hong Kong stocks reached 325.9 billion yuan, increasing its proportion in total heavy holdings from 19.13% in Q1 2025 to 19.92%, marking a new high since Q2 2015 [4] Group 2 - The recovery in the A-share market since Q2 2025 has led to an increase in investor risk appetite, benefiting active fund performance and size [2] - Passive funds have also seen significant net subscriptions since early April 2025, driven by state-owned enterprises entering the market to stabilize it [2][3] - The banking sector has been a focus for active funds, with significant increases in holdings due to high dividend yields and market activity [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Environment**: The focus is shifting from actual growth to nominal growth, with an emphasis on "anti-involution" policies. Government investment is expected to effectively drive social investment, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project commencing, involving a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan [3][18]. - **Non-Banking Sector**: Incremental capital is entering the market, with a strong recommendation for the non-banking sector, particularly brokerage firms and insurance companies, as they are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and regulatory support [6][7]. - **Electronics**: The penetration of DDR5 technology is accelerating, driven by the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in AI PCB manufacturers due to rising demand for computing power [8]. - **Media**: The gaming industry remains optimistic despite recent adjustments, with opportunities in IP and advanced technology applications [9]. - **Food and Beverage**: The industry is entering a golden period for brand upgrades, particularly in the liquor sector, which is expected to recover from previous downturns [10]. - **Agriculture**: The price of yellow chickens may be nearing a bottom, while the pig farming sector is expected to stabilize under "anti-involution" policies [11]. - **Home Appliances**: The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted domestic sales, with a reported 32% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to June 2025 [12]. - **Textiles and Light Industry**: The textile manufacturing sector is recovering, with opportunities in high-performance materials and traditional clothing businesses [14]. - **Environmental Protection**: The exploration of RWA (Risk-Weighted Assets) in environmental assets is expected to enhance financing efficiency and optimize cash flow for companies in the sector [15]. - **New Energy**: Solid-state batteries are projected to achieve commercial application by 2027, with significant growth expected in the coming years [16][17]. - **Construction**: The construction sector is poised for growth with the launch of major projects and upcoming policies aimed at stabilizing the industry [19][21]. - **Coal**: Coal prices are on the rise due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for continued price increases in the second half of the year [20]. - **Building Materials**: A growth plan for the building materials sector is anticipated, with the Yarlung Tsangpo River project expected to drive demand for related materials [21]. - **Metals**: The implementation of a new growth plan is expected to support metal prices, particularly in the aluminum and steel sectors [22]. - **Public Utilities**: New pricing policies in Gansu are expected to enhance profitability for power generation companies [23]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategies**: The report suggests a three-pronged investment strategy focusing on economic cycle assets, growth sectors, and stable value assets, with a recommendation to increase exposure to sectors benefiting from long-term improvements [4][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the asymmetry between downside risks and upside potential in the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation [4][5]. - **Sector-Specific Recommendations**: - Non-banking financials are recommended due to expected recovery in performance and valuation [6][7]. - The electronics sector is advised for investment due to the growth in AI-related technologies [8]. - The media sector is seen as a stable investment due to ongoing demand for gaming and IP products [9]. - The food and beverage sector is highlighted for its potential recovery and brand upgrades [10]. - The agriculture sector is recommended for its stabilization under new policies [11]. - Home appliances are expected to benefit from government policies and consumer demand [12]. Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Risk Factors**: The reports consistently mention various risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, and economic uncertainties that could impact market performance across sectors [4][5][20][22]. - **Technological Advancements**: The rapid development of solid-state battery technology and its implications for the automotive and energy sectors are emphasized, indicating a significant shift in energy storage solutions [16][17]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The impact of government policies on various sectors, particularly in terms of investment and operational efficiency, is a recurring theme, suggesting that regulatory changes could significantly influence market dynamics [3][4][5][19][23].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 07 月 21 日 港股占比创历史新高，重点增配科技及金融 ——主动及被动基金持仓分析 2025Q2 2025Q2 主被动基金规模均有回升，各类型主动基金仓位普遍回升，同时持股 集中度进一步下降，港股持有比例再创历史新高，加仓方向上主要围绕科技、 大金融、军工医药展开，成长及小市值因子偏好继续回升。被动基金风格则更 加偏好金融、大盘价值。 ❑ 2025Q2 主被动基金规模均有回升。2025 年二季度以来 A 股探底修复，投资 者风险偏好提升，成长风格整体占优叠加 AI、创新药各类产业趋势提速，主 动基金业绩规模继续双增。与此同时，被动基金规模在 4 月初国家队入市维 稳推动下同样迎来大幅净申购。主动基金净流出规模收窄，被动基金净流入。 各类型主动基金仓位普遍回升，同时持股集中度进一步下降。 ❑ 2025Q2 主动偏股基金加仓思路主要围绕科技、大金融、军工医药展开，持 仓风格偏小盘成长风格。一是聚焦 AI 算力为代表的科技主线，重点加仓通信。 二季度以来 AI 板块持续高景气，各大厂商纷纷加大 AI 相关的资本性开支， 进一步带动 AI 服务器、AI 芯片、光模块等 ...

今日券商走势活跃，个股集体飘红，华林证券盘中一度涨停，收涨逾7%，中银证券涨超6%，东方证券 涨超5%，广发证券、华泰证券、东吴证券涨超3%，中国银河、中信证券、申万宏源、红塔证券等涨幅 居前。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002945 | 华林证券 | | 15.88 c | 1.04 | 7.01% | | 2 | 601696 | 中银证券 | | 14.25 c 0.90 | | 6.74% | | 3 | 600958 | 东方证券 | | 10.86 c 0.52 | | 5.03% | | 4 | 000776 | 广发证券 | | 18.70 c 0.62 | | 3.43% | | 5 | 601688 | 华泰证券 | | 19.07 c 0.58 | | 3.14% | | 6 | 601555 | 东吴证券 | | 9.27 c 0.27 | | 3.00% | | 1 | 601881 | 中国银河 | | 17.58 c 0.39 ...

周一（7月21日），A股市场全天高开高走，沪指、创业板指双双创年内新高。沪深两市全天成交额1.7 万亿元，较上个交易日放量1289亿元。大盘走强叠加业绩驱动，A股顶流券商ETF（512000）场内放量 涨逾1%日线3连阳，近5日连续吸金达5.95亿元。 盘面上，受供给端、需求端利好，大基建情绪引爆，化工、有色等周期股满屏涨停。揽尽有色金属行业 龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）震荡上扬，场内价格猛拉3.15%，斩获日线3连阳，继续刷新年内高点 （1.277元）。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）高开高走场内收涨2.71%，全天溢价放量， 或有资金进场布局。 | મ્દ્રિક | 类型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159876 | 主 有色龙头ETF | 127 c | 3.15% | 588.55 F | | 516020 | 主 化工ETF | 0.644 c | 2.71% | 3650.30万 | | 516360 | 主 新材料ETF | 0.714 c | 1.56% | 277.01万 | | 5 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. "GENIUS Act" signed by Trump on July 18 establishes the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, promoting global compliance in the stablecoin sector [1] - Major stablecoin issuers, cross-border payment institutions, and companies involved in Real World Assets (RWA) are expected to benefit significantly from this regulatory development [1] - Hong Kong and Singapore have introduced supportive regulatory frameworks for stablecoin development, providing new compliance pathways for cross-border fintech platforms [1] Group 2 - Leading brokerage firms like Futu Holdings and Tiger Brokers possess advantages in user base, technological capabilities, and payment channel development, which may enhance their international user expansion and revenue diversification [1] - Since Q2 2024, the rapid decline in short- to medium-term interest rates has led to an increase in existing bond prices and improved yield opportunities for new bond subscriptions and market-making transactions [1] - Brokerage firms are extending duration in the current interest rate environment, which is expected to yield significant valuation gains, with fixed income business becoming a key driver of brokerage mid-year performance, potentially exceeding expectations for some companies [1] Group 3 - The global leading aircraft manufacturers are experiencing extended order delivery cycles, resulting in a surge in demand for aircraft leasing [2] - Leasing companies with available aircraft fleets are seeing increased bargaining power and rental income, entering a high prosperity cycle driven by supply-demand mismatches [2] - Top leasing firms are leveraging flexible financing and a global customer network to quickly capture excess returns, leading to significant increases in asset yield and Return on Equity (ROE) [2]

Market Overview - A-shares surged on July 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index both reaching new highs for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index broke through 11,000 points, marking a four-month high [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.72% at 3,559.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to 11,007.49 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.87% to 2,296.88 points, with the Northbound 50 Index gaining 2.38% [1] - Total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 1.7274 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance Water and Hydropower Sector - The water and hydropower sector experienced a significant rally, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - Key performers included Wuxin Tunnel Equipment and Jikang Technology, both up by 30%, and China Power Construction, China Western Power, and China Energy Engineering, which also reached their daily limits [3][4] - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost the long-term growth potential of the hydropower industry [5][6] Steel Sector - The steel sector saw strong gains, with stocks like Xining Special Steel, Bayi Iron & Steel, and Liugang Co. all hitting their daily limits [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel, which is expected to improve the competitive landscape and optimize supply [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with stocks such as Yahua Group and Shenghe Resources reaching their daily limits [10] - The upcoming growth stabilization plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is anticipated to drive structural adjustments and eliminate outdated capacity in the non-ferrous metals industry [10] Humanoid Robot Sector - The humanoid robot sector became active again, with stocks like Wavelength New Materials and Changsheng Bearings hitting their daily limits [11] - The sector is expected to benefit from increased market penetration in industrial inspection and household services, with leading manufacturers making significant progress in technology development and commercial orders [13]

首先，优异的业绩表现消除了资金对上市公司经营压力的担忧。从已披露的数据来看，无论是传统行业 还是新兴产业都不乏亮点。在券商板块中，25家上市券商整体中期归母净利润同比增幅达78%（剔除国 泰海通负商誉影响）。新能源汽车产业链因销量攀升，带动上下游企业业绩增长，像海立股份、金麒 麟、继峰股份等近30家A股汽车零部件生产商，纷纷宣布半年度业绩预计将实现显著增长。半导体板块 里，多个细分领域的公司也公布中期业绩向好，其中龙头企业中微公司的业绩预告显示，净利润同比最 高增超40%。这些喜讯，极大地提振了市场信心。 其次，今年中期业绩大多源于内生增长，企业经营出现实质性向好。例如，光模块公司新易盛业绩预增 超3倍，这正是得益于人工智能相关算力投资的持续增长，使得产品结构得以优化，高速率产品需求不 断增加。另外，一些处于景气度较低行业的公司也出现了业绩触底回升的迹象。以房地产企业深深房A 为例，其业绩预增超10倍，原因是"房地产项目收入结转同比增加"，通过主营业务的改善实现了业绩逆 袭。这种由内生动力驱动的业绩增长，更具可持续性，也更能获得市场的认可。 每经评论员 王砚丹 每年七八月份是A股市场传统的中报披露季，当前投资 ...

Group 1 - The market shows positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index consistently above 3500 points, indicating potential for upward movement in A-shares [1] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside adjustment space and clearer upward logic [1] - Mid to long-term trends in the A-share market remain upward, supported by long-term funds entering the market, particularly from insurance capital [1] Group 2 - High certainty in earnings is leading to strong performance in certain sectors, with a focus on themes such as AI applications, self-control, innovative drugs, and capacity optimization [1] - The "anti-involution" sectors are showing low valuations and are expected to benefit from price increases, which will help maintain market momentum [2] - Financial data from June indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market [2] Group 3 - The non-bank sector is favored, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions driven by policy and event catalysts, as new capital enters the market [2] - The "anti-involution" narrative is gaining traction, with a focus on key industries for stable growth, particularly in metals and commodities [3] - The power equipment sector in the Hong Kong market is highlighted as a core asset, with expectations for improved profitability in wind and hydroelectric power [3]