格隆汇1月15日｜富国银行将ASML目标股价从1140美元上调至1450美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to stabilize and improve in 2026, driven by counter-cyclical policies aimed at supporting the real estate sector, boosting investment, and stimulating consumption [2][3]. Economic Growth - The GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with a slight decline in growth rate expected in the fourth quarter to approximately 4.6% [3][4]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a GDP growth of 5.2%, but the third quarter experienced a slowdown to 4.8%, indicating weakening economic momentum [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 2.2% in December 2025, showing a slight recovery from November's -2.6% [9]. - Infrastructure projects are expected to benefit from new policy financial tools, with a 28% increase in project bidding amounts in December [9][10]. - Excavator sales, a key indicator of infrastructure investment, rose by 19.2% year-on-year in December 2025, with domestic sales increasing by 10.9% [9][10]. Consumption Insights - The retail sales growth for December 2025 is predicted to be 1.8%, an increase from the previous month's 1.3% [8]. - Consumer spending showed signs of recovery during the New Year holiday, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in consumption from January 1 to 3, 2026 [8]. - However, service consumption remains weak due to seasonal effects and high base comparisons from the previous year [8]. Industrial Performance - The industrial output growth for December 2025 is expected to be 4.9%, slightly up from 4.8% in the previous month [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in December, indicating a return to expansion after eight months below 50% [7]. - Increased coal consumption by key power plants in December suggests a high level of production activity [7].

1月15日，A股市场主要指数涨跌不一，全市场超3100股下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4112.6点，下跌0.33%；深证成指收报14306.73点，上涨0.41%；创业板指收报3367.92 点，上涨0.56%。两市合计成交29054.96亿元，较上一交易日减少10358.93亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出超500亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出225.52亿元，尾盘净流入49.73亿元，全天净流出509.2亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225. 52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504. 74 | -71.84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286.54 | -530. 96 | -183. 95 | -718. 20 | | 2026-1-12 | -213.07 | - ...

今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出225.52亿元，尾盘净流入49.73亿元，全天净流出509.2亿元。 1月15日，A股市场主要指数涨跌不一，全市场超3100股下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4112.6点，下跌0.33%；深证成指收报14306.73点，上涨0.41%；创业板指收报 3367.92点，上涨0.56%。两市合计成交29054.96亿元，较上一交易日减少10358.93亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超500亿元 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225.52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504.74 | -71. 84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286.54 | -530. 96 | -183. 95 | -718. 20 | | 2026-1-12 | -213.07 | - ...

•BMI报告预计，马来西亚央行将在2026年全年维持2.75%的政策利率不变。尽管经济增速或从2025年的 4.6%放缓至4.1%，但内需韧性及可控通胀（预计1.9%）支撑按兵不动立场。同时，美联储终端利率预 期下调至3.25%，美马利差收窄利好林吉特，BMI将2026年底美元兑林吉特汇率预期从4.10上调至4.00 （当前约4.0505）。 PIMCO：因美国政策不可预测，将系统性降低美国资产敞口 BMI：马来西亚央行2026年将按兵不动，林吉特有望走强至4.00 澳大利亚国民银行：产能利用率创18个月新高，澳储行2月加息预期升温 【机构分析】 •劳埃德银行外汇策略师指出，特朗普政府推动对美联储采取法律行动具有明显政治动机。尽管其任内 经济数据表面亮眼，但民众实际就业状况恶化——多个行业岗位减少，失业人数累计增加约70万。在就 业基本面持续走弱背景下，拥有独立决策权的美联储正被当作"非常方便的替罪羊"。美国政府通过指责 其货币政策，试图转移公众对劳动力市场深层次问题的关注，掩盖经济增长与民生脱节的现实。 •野村资产管理策略师表示，在通胀企稳、名义GDP加速增长的背景下，日本企业盈利有望持续扩张。 近年来日本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dividend sector experienced a slight decline today, with various indices reflecting a decrease in performance, while the E Fund dividend ETFs saw significant net inflows [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index fell by 0.01%, the CSI Dividend Value Index decreased by 0.1%, and both the CSI Dividend Index and CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index dropped by 0.2% [1]. - E Fund's dividend ETFs, including E Fund Dividend ETF (515180) and E Fund Low Volatility Dividend ETF (563020), received over 100 million yuan in net inflows yesterday [1]. Group 2: Fund Management and Fees - E Fund is currently the only fund company offering all dividend ETFs at a low fee rate of 0.15% per year, which aids investors in low-cost allocation to high-dividend assets [1][5]. - The management fee for E Fund's various dividend ETFs, including the Hang Seng Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159545), is set at 0.15% per year, with a custody fee of 0.05% per year [5]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI Dividend Index consists of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and stable performance, with banking, coal, and transportation sectors accounting for over 50% of the index [3]. - The CSI Low Volatility Dividend Index is composed of 50 stocks characterized by good liquidity, continuous dividends, and low volatility, with banking, construction, and pharmaceutical sectors making up nearly 65% of the index [3]. - The CSI Dividend Value Index includes 50 stocks with high dividend yields and value characteristics, with banking, construction, and transportation sectors representing over 60% of the index [4].

2026.01. 15 作者 | 一财阿驴 ▼ 0.33% ▲ 0.41% ▲ 0.56% A股分化加剧, 沪指承压深创韧性犹存, 上证指数: 收盘跌破10日均线, 日线级别MACD死又初 现,短期调整压力加大,4100点整数关口成为关键支撑位。 2226家上涨 3121 家下跌 涨跌停比 2H 65 个股跌多涨少,赚钱效应回落,高位风险集中释 放,盘面上,半导体产业链爆发,光刻机、先进 封装方向领涨;能源金属、消费电子、化工题材 表现活跃。AI应用、商业航天概念股大幅下 挫。 两市成交额 万亿元 ▼26.28% 两市成交额大幅萎缩,市场主动攻击动能有所 衰减,资金入场步伐放缓,转为观望,代表科技 成长的创业板指和深证成指则逆势收红,显示 出市场内在结构依然存在韧性。 主力资金净流出 698.67 散户资金净流入 机构呈"调仓避险+低吸布局"特征,资金从AI应用、商业航天等前期高位热门题材果断撤离,转而加仓银 行、非银金融等低估值防御板块,以及能源金属、贵金属等顺周期领域; 散户情绪从积极入场转向谨慎观 望,资金净流入规模大幅缩减,满仓率环比回落,短线追涨热情降温,部分散户开始布局贵金属、化工等顺 周期防御标 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power (00916) has successfully completed the issuance of super short-term financing bonds totaling RMB 3.7 billion, with a maturity of 149 days and an interest rate of 1.54% [1] Group 1: Financing Details - The total amount of the super short-term financing bonds issued is RMB 3.7 billion [1] - The bonds have a maturity period of 149 days, with a face value of RMB 100 each [1] - The interest on the bonds will start accruing from January 14, 2026 [1] Group 2: Underwriters and Use of Proceeds - The lead underwriter for the bond issuance is CITIC Bank, with China Merchants Bank serving as the co-lead underwriter [1] - The funds raised from this bond issuance will be used to supplement the company's working capital and repay interest-bearing debts of the issuer and its subsidiaries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent overdue public loans from Guangfa Bank have raised concerns about the bank's asset quality and risk management capabilities, with a total overdue amount exceeding 150 million yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Loan Default Information - Guangfa Bank disclosed two overdue public loans: 74.89 million yuan from Shaanxi Coal Supply Chain and 78 million yuan from Yida Construction Group, totaling over 150 million yuan [1][4]. - The overdue loans reflect risks in supply chain financing and the construction industry, both of which are closely tied to the economic climate and real estate market trends [4][2]. Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - As of the first half of 2025, Guangfa Bank reported a year-on-year decrease of 3.79% in non-performing loan (NPL) balance and an 8 basis point drop in NPL ratio, continuing a trend of "double decline" [1][6]. - However, the bank's loss loans reached 16.213 billion yuan, accounting for 51.89% of total NPLs, with a year-on-year increase of 20.36% [1][6]. Group 3: Industry Context and Risks - The overdue loans from Yida Construction Group highlight the spread of risks from the real estate sector to upstream construction companies, exacerbated by difficulties in receivables collection and extended project payment cycles [4][2]. - The bank's real estate loan NPL ratio has risen to 5.66%, while the construction sector's NPL ratio remains high at 3.39%, indicating accumulated risks from previous collaborations with distressed real estate firms [4][6]. Group 4: Business Structure and Internal Challenges - Guangfa Bank's business structure has been heavily reliant on credit cards and real estate, with credit card overdraft balances constituting 48.09% of personal loans, the highest among peer banks [7][8]. - The bank has faced regulatory penalties for various compliance issues, including improper loan issuance and misrepresentation of asset quality, totaling approximately 112 million yuan in 2025 [8][9]. Group 5: Financial Performance - In 2024, Guangfa Bank's operating income decreased by 0.65% to 68.796 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive year of revenue decline, while net profit fell by 4.98% to 15.006 billion yuan [9][11]. - The bank's net interest margin has narrowed to 1.53%, limiting its ability to absorb non-performing assets through profits [9][11].

公告显示，举牌后太保寿险直接持有东阳光药H股605.9万股，太保产险持有148.8万股，两者合计持股 754.6万股，占比达6.70%，且太保系明确将此次投资纳入权益投资管理，不排除后续追加投资的可能。 在基建与金融领域，太保资产持有上海临港5.33%的股份、沪农商行5.81%的股份，这两处持仓均为 2025年及此前通过逐步增持形成的举牌仓位。 倘若按照1月9日上海机场的收盘价32.67元/股测算，本次增持总耗资约23.66亿元，增持资金来源为太保 资产受托管理的保险资金，涵盖个人分红产品账户、传统普通保险产品账户。此次举牌后太保寿险持有 该公司股票的账面余额为40.65亿元。 市场分析认为，此次险资选择举牌上海机场，核心逻辑在于其契合险资长期配置需求：一方面，上海机 场拥有区位垄断优势和持续扩大的流量壁垒，经营稳定性强且现金流充沛，符合险资对"类固收"资产的 偏好；另一方面，伴随国际消费回流，公司非航业务价值日益凸显，长期成长确定性较高。 回溯2025年，太保系在险资举牌热潮中动作频频，布局了医药、金融、基建等多个领域。 在医药领域，太保产险与太保寿险于2025年8月被动举牌东阳光药H股，此次举牌源于东阳光 ...