伊朗海军指挥官一句"海峡通行完全由伊朗掌控"，让全球三分之一的原油贸易通道悬于一线，中国的能源安全红灯骤然亮起。 当地时间1月27日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军高级指挥官穆罕默德·阿克巴尔扎德宣布，伊朗已实现对霍尔木兹海峡的全面智能化实时监控，是 否允许船只通行"完全由伊朗掌控"。 霍尔木兹海峡是海湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道，全球约三分之一的海运原油贸易每天超过2000万桶石油都要经过这里。伊朗此 次强硬表态意味着全球能源安全的敏感神经被直接触动。 伊朗此次行动不止是技术升级。阿克巴尔扎德明确表示："伊朗的周边国家是我们的朋友，但如果其陆地、空域或水域被用于针对伊朗，将被 视为敌对行为。" 这一战略通道的安全现在"取决于德黑兰的决策"。 与以往不同，伊朗特别强调了"全面智能化"和"实时监控"，这意味着传统规避监控的手段可能失效。伊朗革命卫队已经将技术优势转化为地缘 政治筹码。 霍尔木兹海峡若被封锁，将引发全球能源市场地震。有分析预测，如果海峡运输量大幅减少，国际原油价格可能出现飙升。 即使只是短期干扰，全球石油供应也将显著下降。对于液化天然气而言，情况更为严峻——几乎没有替代路线。 中国作为全球最大原油 ...

据哥伦比亚《共和国报》1月27日报道，厄瓜多尔环境与能源部长曼萨诺 表示，厄政府已将哥原油过境运输费上调900%，相关费用已由每桶3美元提高 至30美元，并自1月23日起生效。哥矿能部长帕尔马表示，厄一方面强调打击 毒品贩运的必要性，另一方面却以新的借口加剧地区政治紧张局势。厄方单方 面、任意提高原油过境运输价格，违反了既有承诺，受影响最大的将是小型原 油生产商。帕尔马表示，哥政府已召集石油行业相关协会，研究在新的物流条 件下继续运输和出口原油的替代方案，以维护国家利益。哥贸工部长莫拉莱斯 表示，政府正出台新法令，拟对来自厄的其他产品征收30%关税，与此前已征 税的23种商品一并生效。 （原标题：厄瓜多尔将哥伦比亚原油过境运输费上调900%） ...

每经AI快讯，1月28日，美国能源信息署(EIA)数据显示，美国上周原油库存减少229.5万桶，市场预估 为增加184.8万桶。 ...

Group 1 - Major stock indices showed mixed performance, with cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, precious metals, oil, and chemicals leading the gains [1] - The Wanjiasheng Zhongzheng 800 Free Cash Flow ETF (563580) rose by 2.85%, reaching a new high since its listing, focusing on companies with strong cash flow capabilities [1] - The index includes sectors like automotive, oil and petrochemicals, home appliances, non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals, which together account for over 60% of the index weight [1] Group 2 - Cyclical sectors are sensitive to economic conditions, commodity prices, and capacity utilization, covering upstream resource industries like oil and gas, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumer sectors [3] - Recent strong performance in cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and oil and gas, is expected to be a key theme in the upcoming spring market rally [3] - From a global macro perspective, the expansion of dollar credit cracks during the Kondratiev depression, along with frequent geopolitical conflicts, enhances the monetary and safe-haven attributes of commodities, signaling the start of a super cycle [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. However, the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index fell by 0.57% and 0.47%, respectively. The total market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][15] - The overall market sentiment is neutral to weak, with over 3600 stocks declining. Small-cap stocks showed mixed performance, with micro-cap stocks underperforming, while growth stocks slightly outperformed value stocks [1][15] Gold and Precious Metals - Spot gold prices surged past the $5200 per ounce mark, leading to significant gains in gold stocks and the non-ferrous metals sector. The Gold Stock ETF rose by 10.00%, the Mining ETF increased by 7.38%, and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF climbed by 7.37% [1][2][15] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to its safe-haven appeal and a renewed "sell America" trading logic, as market confidence in U.S. assets wavers amid a potential interest rate cut cycle and geopolitical tensions [2][16] Commodity Market Trends - The current rise in precious metals and non-ferrous prices reflects the ongoing realization of core market logic, with clear long-term drivers for gold and silver. However, there are signs of potential acceleration towards a peak in this price wave [3][17] - A super cycle for commodities is anticipated this year, supported by a rebound in real estate and infrastructure investments in China, as well as expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S. during the midterm election year [4][18] Coal and Energy Sector - The Coal ETF saw a significant increase of 4.75%, driven by market sentiment towards resource commodities. The current price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao and Shanxi has stabilized at 685 yuan per ton [6][20] - The oil sector also experienced gains, with the Oil ETF rising by 4.42%. Brent crude oil prices rebounded from around $60 to above $65, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and supply disruptions [7][22] Investment Opportunities - The coal industry shows strong valuation and dividend potential, with a price-to-book ratio of only 1.59 and a dividend yield of 5.82%, making it attractive in the current low-interest-rate environment [21] - Investors are encouraged to consider the largest Oil ETF, which has a scale of 1.021 billion yuan, as it continues to attract capital inflows [8][23]

Group 1 - Argentina's Treasury has requested a New York court to suspend the discovery process related to the nationalization case of state-owned oil company YPF, labeling it as illegitimate and intrusive [1]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪铝涨近 6%，集运欧线涨超 4%，沥青涨近 4%，铸造铝合金、沪金、氧化铝涨 ...

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The report predicts that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate due to a combination of factors such as OPEC+ production plans, US inventory changes, geopolitical risks, and global supply - demand adjustments [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026 - The EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continued to rise - US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production due to winter storms, about 15% of the national output - The IMF raised the 2026 world economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns - Global floating crude oil storage is high, and the EIA's January report raised the expected surplus of crude oil supply in 2026 - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but its impact on the global supply - demand is currently limited - The US imposed new sanctions on Iran on January 23, and there is a possibility of military action, raising geopolitical risks in the region - The power supply system of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field is expected to restart, and the CPC No. 3 offshore mooring terminal has completed maintenance, but the oil field can only resume half of its production capacity by February 7 [1] [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 2.49% to 460.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 463.4 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 74 to 48,237 lots [2] [Fundamental Tracking] - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day - As of the week ending January 16, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels (expected: 1.131 million barrels), 3.24% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 5.977 million barrels (expected: 1.705 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 3.348 million barrels (expected: - 0.162 million barrels); heating oil inventories increased by 0.279 million barrels (expected: - 0.745 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.478 million barrels [3] [Supply - Side Information] - OPEC's November 2025 oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day - US crude oil production in the week of January 16 decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 13.732 million barrels per day, near the highest historical level - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.68% decrease from the same period last year - Gasoline weekly production decreased by 5.66% to 7.834 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 8.218 million barrels per day, a 0.57% decrease from the same period last year - Diesel weekly production decreased by 13.96% to 3.524 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 3.549 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease from the same period last year - The supply of US crude oil products decreased by 3.98% week - on - week [4]

| | | | mile | 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年01月28日 | 操作评级 | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | ☆☆☆ | 原油 | | F3066912 Z0016785 | ★☆★ | 燃料油 | | 低硫燃料油 立☆☆ | 李海群 中级分析师 | ★☆☆ | | 沥青 | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | 010-58747784 | | | 【原油】 价大幅反弹,Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶,WTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能源基础设施和电网 承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日,约占全国产量的15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前 恢复不到一半的正常产量,该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏 利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构 平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压力显著,市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动,供需宽松 始终是压制油价上行空间的长期因素。 【燃料油&低硫 ...

Market Overview - A-shares are experiencing a cooling trend, while the Hang Seng Index has reached a new high, increasing by 2.56% and hitting a four-year peak with a trading volume of 360 billion HKD [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27% to close at 4151.24 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% to 14342.89 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57% to 3323.56 points [3][6]. Trading Dynamics - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 29.926 trillion CNY, an increase of 70.9 billion CNY compared to the previous day [3]. - The market is seeing a significant number of declining stocks, with approximately 3500 stocks down and only 1660 stocks up, indicating a general downward trend [4][5]. Sector Performance - The market rebound is primarily concentrated in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly precious metals, with international gold prices surpassing 5000 USD per ounce [5]. - Other sectors such as medical devices, biopharmaceuticals, and AI application software are experiencing declines, indicating a retreat from previously popular themes [5]. Investment Sentiment - The adjustment in the market, particularly in the CSI 300, is seen as a necessary measure by large institutions, which may inadvertently affect other stocks [5][6]. - The current market dynamics suggest a process of value rediscovery, where lower stock prices may attract value investors looking for better cost bases and higher dividend yields [5][6]. Future Outlook - If the CSI 300 stocks fall to a price range acceptable to long-term investors, it may attract funds back into the index, facilitating a rational market adjustment [6]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a notable "up-down" cycle observed during trading, but overall performance remains within acceptable limits set by management [6].