2.液冷领域：重点关注具备全栈解决方案能力、已获头部客户认证并拥有大规模交付经验的龙头企业， 将成为此轮产业确定性红利的主要受益者，如英维克、飞龙股份。 3.光纤光缆领域：关注在特种光纤、海洋通信等领域技术领先，且产能规模占优的龙头企业，如中天科 技、亨通光电。 最后，算力集群内部海量的数据交换，以及跨数据中心的互联DCI，显著带动了光纤光缆的用量；与此 同时，全球供应链的产能瓶颈（尤其体现在光纤预制棒环节）与国内"东数西算"等工程对特种光纤的集 中需求相叠加，共同推动了光纤光缆市场的供需关系趋紧，行业价格步入复苏通道。 在这一趋势下，机构提示投资逻辑应聚焦于两个层面：一是选择直接受益于规格升级且需求弹性大的环 节；二是筛选在量产能力、客户认证和供应链地位上已建立壁垒的龙头企业。具体收益方向如下： 1.光模块与上游器件：聚焦已实现800G大规模交付、并率先推进1.6T产能爬坡的龙头公司，如中际旭 创、新易盛；同时关注直接受益于技术迭代和客户需求上修的上游光器件公司，如天孚通信。 在12月8日的FORCE原动力大会上，火山引擎总裁谭待介绍，近日豆包大模型日均Tokens使用量已突破 50万亿，居中国第一、全球第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI is profoundly reshaping the demand for optical fibers and cables, pushing the industry supply-demand relationship into a new cycle, with a potential supply shortage expected in the next two years [2][34]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply has already led to price increases, with G.652.D fiber prices rising over 20% since early 2025, driven by AI demand for various fiber types that are occupying production capacity [2][6]. - Global demand and capacity have regional mobility, meaning that as overseas manufacturers supply North America, non-North American markets will also face supply shortages, with leading domestic companies having an export ratio of 30-50% [2][34]. - The global optical fiber demand is projected to reach 880 million core kilometers by 2027, with AI expected to account for 35% of the downstream demand for optical fibers and cables [4][34]. Market Trends - The optical fiber market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by the demand from data centers and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) applications, with the market for AI-driven optical fibers projected to reach $2.1 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of approximately 73% from 2024 to 2027 [12][34]. - The supply side is characterized by a cautious expansion attitude among manufacturers, with current global optical fiber production capacity estimated at around 850 million core kilometers, which may fall short of annual demand [35][36]. Emerging Fiber Types - New types of optical fibers, such as G.654.E and hollow-core fibers, are expected to see rapid growth due to their advantages in low latency and long-distance transmission, making them suitable for DCI applications [20][29]. - Specialty fibers are gaining traction as AI-driven computing clusters expand, with manufacturers accelerating research and development in this area to meet the increasing demand for high-performance communication [22][31]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies with stable production capacity and advanced technology are expected to benefit first from the rising demand in the data center sector, as the supply landscape remains relatively stable in the short term [36][37]. - The market for specialty optical fibers is more concentrated than that for standard telecommunications fibers, allowing leading manufacturers to capture a larger share of the value [34][36].

Group 1 - The stock of Changfei Fiber (601869) has shown strong performance, achieving a price increase of over 20% in three consecutive trading days, with a closing price of 127.05 CNY per share on December 22 [1] - The company has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 169 times, indicating a potential risk of overvaluation [1] - Industry demand for optical fibers is on the rise, with prices increasing since Q3 of this year, reflecting strong demand and tight overall supply [1][2] Group 2 - The traditional optical fiber and cable market is showing clear signs of recovery after a four-year bottoming period, while the overseas specialty fiber market is entering a high-growth phase driven by AI computing power breakthroughs [2] - Changfei Fiber has noted the market's improved supply-demand structure for optical fiber and cable products, particularly in relation to data centers, although the demand for new products remains a small proportion of total demand [2] - The company has maintained its position as the world's leading manufacturer in preform, optical fiber, and cable markets for nine consecutive years, according to CRU [3] Group 3 - For the first three quarters of 2025, Changfei Fiber reported total operating revenue of approximately 10.275 billion CNY, an increase of about 18.18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by approximately 18.02% to about 470 million CNY [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Yongding Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - **Global Fiber Demand**: Significant growth in global fiber demand is expected in 2025, with domestic non-operator market prices for ordinary fiber rising from 15-16 RMB at the beginning of the year to 20-22 RMB by year-end, driven mainly by data center and trunk fiber network construction in mainland China [2][4]. - **Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War**: The war has greatly increased demand for fiber drones, which is expected to remain high even if hostilities cease, as military stockpiles will likely retain a certain number of these drones, leading to stable long-term demand [2][6][10]. Company Performance - **Yongding's Revenue and Profit**: In 2025, Yongding Co., Ltd. exceeded expectations in revenue and profit within the rod and cable sector, increasing production capacity from 300 tons at the beginning of the year to approximately 450 tons by December, with plans for further increases in 2026 [2][7]. - **Product Development**: Multi-mode fiber has been successfully developed and is in small-scale commercial use, while hollow fiber and 654B fiber are expected to undergo testing in Q1 2026 [2][7]. Price and Supply Forecast - **Price Predictions**: Ordinary non-operator fiber prices are expected to increase by 10%-20% in 2026, potentially reaching 23-25 RMB. Other product types, including A2 fiber, are also anticipated to see price increases [2][8][21]. - **Supply Chain Recovery**: The recovery of supply chains is cautiously optimistic, with slow recovery of production capacity from competitors like Futong and European brands seeking OEM partnerships in China [2][8]. Product Capacity and Competition - **Capacity Utilization**: Different types of fibers impact overall capacity differently. For instance, producing 654B fiber consumes more raw materials, leading to actual usable capacity being less than theoretical values. The demand for drone-related products has created competitive pressure on existing systems [2][9]. - **Tight Supply Conditions**: The supply of 657A2 and multi-mode fibers is under pressure due to competition from data centers and drones, with factory orders currently extending to 45 days [3][11][17]. Technological Developments - **Laser Chip Expansion**: Yongding has established a presence in the optoelectronics sector with laser chips and plans to expand production capacity significantly, with expectations of reaching tens of millions of effective chips supplied in 2026 [3][22][29]. - **Future Trends in Optical Communication**: The optical communication industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by AI, with increasing demand for optical modules and tight supply of optical chips. New technologies are expected to further propel market growth [28]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - **International Market Entry**: Domestic companies face challenges entering overseas markets, particularly in North America, where demand is surging. Some companies are using indirect trade routes to access these markets [19]. - **Price Differences**: There are significant price differences between domestic and international brands, with international brands like Corning charging substantially more for their products [13][14]. Conclusion Yongding Co., Ltd. is well-positioned for growth in the optical fiber and laser chip markets, with strong demand driven by technological advancements and geopolitical factors. The company’s strategic plans for capacity expansion and product development indicate a positive outlook for the coming years.

Summary of Fiber Optic Cable Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The fiber optic cable market in 2025 is showing signs of differentiation, with operator procurement prices decreasing by approximately 20% year-on-year, while prices in the scattered fiber market have been rising since May, driven mainly by demand from AI data centers and military special fibers, although overall incremental growth remains limited [1][4]. Key Market Trends - China's total fiber consumption has decreased by 7%-10% over the past two years, with a narrowing decline to about 1% in 2025. In contrast, the North American market is benefiting from AI demand, with growth rates approaching 20% [1][5]. - The profit margins for single-mode ordinary fibers fluctuate between 20%-30%, while special and multi-mode fibers can exceed 50%, significantly contributing to manufacturers' profits [1][6]. Price Stability and Demand - After September, the prices of common cables stabilized, with increased demand for multi-mode and special fibers improving supply-demand balance and enhancing industry premiums. The construction of AI-driven data centers has a significant positive impact on both North American and domestic markets [1][8]. - The demand for military special fibers may weaken due to changes in international circumstances, necessitating a cautious approach [1][9]. Company Insights - Major manufacturers with substantial fiber rod capacity and strong PCVD process capabilities, such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (YOFC), FiberHome, Hengtong, and Zhongtian, are recommended for investment. Overseas companies like Corning and Fujikura are also highlighted [2][13]. - Chinese leading manufacturers are cautious about capacity expansion due to past price wars, indicating room for improvement in capacity utilization. Corning's reduction in supply to other regions may provide more order opportunities for Chinese companies [1][10]. Future Price Trends - The current price increase trend is expected to be sustainable at least on a quarterly basis, but long-term observations are needed regarding the results of the upcoming Chinese telecom procurement, which will significantly impact operator procurement price recovery and large manufacturers' profit forecasts [1][11]. Technological Developments - New technologies, such as hollow fibers, are anticipated to drive structural growth. Although currently expensive and limited in commercialization, a decrease in costs could enhance their market prospects [1][12]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on large manufacturers with significant fiber rod production capacity and the ability to produce multi-mode and special fibers, as they are likely to benefit the most from the current upward cycle [2][13].

Summary of Hengtong Optic-Electric Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Fiber Optic Demand**: There is a significant tension in global fiber optic demand, driven by accelerated domestic construction and international backbone, metropolitan, and access network developments. The adoption of AR technology is expected to sustain demand growth in the coming years [2][3][7]. - **International Market Growth**: The international market has shown substantial price increases, particularly in backbone and metropolitan networks, with many countries actively advancing infrastructure development [4][5]. Company Insights - **Hengtong's Position**: Hengtong Optic-Electric maintains stable production capacity for conventional fiber optics while heavily investing in special fibers, such as G6,541 ultra-low loss fiber and multi-core hollow laser fibers. The new fiber center is expected to release capacity in the first half of next year [2][10][12]. - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The company has been operating at full capacity since the beginning of 2025, with no significant changes in conventional fiber capacity [14][10]. - **Special Fiber Development**: Hengtong is a leader in the multi-core fiber sector, with prices approximately ten times that of G652D fiber. The company has received certifications from major telecom operators [12][13]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Composition**: Fiber optics and cables account for over 80% of Hengtong's total revenue, with overseas customers contributing 30%-50% and domestic operators about 40% [22][24][25]. - **Price Trends**: Domestic fiber prices have increased by approximately 10%, while international prices, particularly in the U.S., are significantly higher, with G652D priced at $5.5 to $6 per meter [9][20]. Future price increases are anticipated due to changing supply-demand dynamics [9]. Market Dynamics - **Domestic Operator Bidding**: The bidding volume from domestic operators remains stable, but the new "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" project is expected to drive demand for special fibers [6][10]. - **Supply-Side Changes**: Major suppliers, including Corning and Prysmian, are expanding their special fiber offerings, impacting traditional 652D fiber production capacity [8][10]. Future Outlook - **Demand Projections**: The demand for fiber optics is expected to continue growing in the coming years, driven by advancements in AR technology and data center construction [7][18]. - **Expansion Plans**: Hengtong plans to expand production capacity within 6-12 months, depending on the type of fiber and existing infrastructure [11][18]. The company is also focusing on green production practices to meet future demand [27]. Strategic Initiatives - **International Market Strategy**: Hengtong is leveraging its brands to navigate tariff barriers in the U.S. market, with expectations of sales growth by 2027 [5][16]. The company has established multiple production bases globally to support its international operations [23][32]. - **Adaptation to Market Changes**: Hengtong is adjusting its procurement strategies based on regional market conditions, ensuring minimal impact on sales despite challenges in raw material sourcing [19][31]. Conclusion - **Industry Outlook**: The fiber optic communication industry is poised for optimistic growth, particularly with the increasing influence of AI and drone applications. Hengtong Optic-Electric is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, presenting significant investment opportunities [33].

12月22日上榜的成交活跃股中，长飞光纤光缆通过港股通渠道成交金额为32.52亿港元，净买入金额为 4.25亿港元，不仅如此，该股已连续4日出现成交净买入，累计净买入金额为13.83亿港元，其间股价上 涨49.95%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 长飞光纤光缆获南向资金连续4天净买入，累计净买入金额为13.83亿港元，股价累计上涨49.95%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，12月22日港股通（包括沪市港股通及深市港股通）成交活跃股合计成交 315.99亿港元，净买入金额为17.47亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to be driven by the construction of AI data centers and DCI interconnections, with a significant increase in global demand anticipated due to the ongoing evolution of AI large model training and application deployment [4] - The supply side faces challenges as the production cycle for optical preforms is long and the manufacturing process is complex, leading to potential short-term supply tightness [5] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand imbalance in the short term, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector [6] Demand Side Summary - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to grow due to the increasing need for high-density and low-power data transmission in data centers, driven by AI applications [4] - The G.654.E optical fiber is noted for its ability to enhance transmission distance and system capacity, contributing to the development of more efficient long-distance high-bandwidth networks [4] - New technologies such as hollow-core fibers are being actively developed, which may lead to increased demand in the long term due to their advantages in low latency and low loss [4] Supply Side Summary - The production of optical preforms is characterized by a long expansion cycle and high technical requirements, which may lead to a tight supply situation in the short term [5] - The report cites predictions from the Asia-Pacific Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Association and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, estimating that global demand for optical fibers and cables could reach hundreds of millions of core kilometers by 2025 [5] - Prices for optical fibers have shown a significant rebound since May, indicating a positive outlook for demand and pricing driven by AI data center construction [5] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology as primary targets, with additional beneficiaries including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Yongding Co., FiberHome Technologies, and TeFa Information [6]

| | 沪股通 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | 名称 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 0.8% | -10.81 | 42.74 Z | 中芯国际 | | 中芯国际 | 5.9% | 2.59 | 34.72亿 | 阿里巴巴-W | | 小米集团-W | -1.8% | 3.05 | 26.23 Z | 腾讯控股 | | 腾讯控股 | 0.1% | 4.27 | 23.47 Z | 小米集团-W | | 长飞光纤光缆 | 11.2% | 3.11 | 18.81 Z | 长飞光纤光缆 | | 中国海洋石油 | 2.1% | 0.65 | 12.19亿 | 中国移动 | | 中国移动 | -0.2% | -4.41 | 10.78 Z | 中国海洋石油 | | 华虹半导体 | 5.2% | -0.24 | 9.49 Z | 美团-W | | 泡泡玛特 | 4.6% | -0.25 | 9.48 Z | 华虹半导体 | | 工商银行 | 0.2% | 1.23 | 9.44 Z | 石药集团 | 12月22日，南下 ...

Group 1 - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of HKD 31.25 billion, with a net sell of HKD 8.24 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and a net buy of HKD 39.49 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] - The most net bought stocks included SMIC (00981), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Tencent (00700), while the most net sold stocks were China Mobile (00941) and Alibaba-W (09988) [1][5] Group 2 - SMIC (00981) received a net buy of HKD 7.3 billion, attributed to the entry of new shareholders in the IC substrate sector, indicating a strategic move by the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [3] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net buy of HKD 6.86 billion, with upcoming product launches and price adjustments due to rising memory costs [3] - Tencent (00700) had a net buy of HKD 5.97 billion, supported by positive forecasts for its advertising and gaming businesses driven by AI technology [4] Group 3 - Longi Green Energy (06869) received a net buy of HKD 4.25 billion, with strong demand reflected in rising fiber prices and robust export performance [4] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) had a net buy of HKD 1.22 billion, with expectations of improved revenue and net profit growth in the banking sector [4]