风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 边城浪子1986 目前创新药处于不可证伪阶段 ， 业绩不是第一位 ， 事件驱动更为重要 ， 大概率在未来一段时 间可能还有一定表现机会 ， 后期会不会出现鸡犬升天的现象 ？ 个人觉得还是存在一定概率的 ， 就是存在未来大部分创新药从合理估值到高估的过程 。 四 、 Ai应用 来源：雪球 一 、 低利率下的稳定回报行业 低利率的环境下 ， 一部分资金自然会寻找股息较高的行业进行投资 ， 并且这些行业的股息回报 也成为了部分银行存款和理财的替代选择 。 特别是保险类资金在大幅加仓高股息个股 ， 红利策 略也在市场上越来越受欢迎 。 我个人觉得其中的公用事业 、 电信运营商 、 电力是值得低风险 偏好的投资者持有的 。 个人疑虑比较大的是银行业 ， 因为资产的真实质量存疑 ， 但是如果未来通过通胀或者放水等手 段稀释不良资产 ， 只要这一过程持续够久 ， 银行也可以看作是安全 ， 就看时间的力量能不能 化解这一切了 。 二 、 港股互联网与科技 港股互联网和科技目前估值比较合理 ， 并有一定的向上增速 ， 但是由于巨头的体 ...

自2022年3月24日成立至2025年3月31日，中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起的份额净值增长率为36.85%， 业绩比较基准增长率为7.02%，跑赢业绩比较基准29.83%。相比红利贝塔所提供的收益，这只基金的超额 收益显然更应该被看到。 这几年，红利风格凭借长期稳健的表现，拥有了越来越多的粉丝。 但一只优秀的红利主题基金，收益来源显然不只是贝塔；只有当红利主题叠加显著超额能力的Buff，才会 创造近2年位列前1%（19/2987）的优秀业绩（排名数据来源：海通证券，具体分类为混合型-主动混合开 放型-强股混合型，近2年排名数据为19/2987，数据截至2025.3.31）。 在计算超额收益时，很多人会用中证红利指数作为参考；但如果要求更高，不妨以中证红利全收益指为参 考。当然，对持有人来说，体验更好的超额收益，是在没有显著放大波动的情况下获得的。 中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起 自成立以来业绩及同期指数表现 | 简称 | 中泰红利优选一年 | 中证红利指数 | | 中证红利全收益 中证红利低波 中证红利质量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持有混合发 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌0.72%，A股成交量779.00亿股，成交金额9361.71亿 元，比上一个交易日增加18.06%。个股方面，866只个股上涨，其中涨停43只，4464只个股下跌，其中 跌停9只。从申万行业来看，石油石化、国防军工、公用事业等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.49%、1.34%、 0.89%；美容护理、传媒、食品饮料等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为3.55%、2.59%、2.17%。（数据宝） | 汽车 | | | | 同心传动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | -2.17 | 277.65 | 28.32 | 康比特 | -5.99 | | 传媒 | -2.59 | 389.66 | -7.85 | 富春股份 | -11.21 | | 美容护理 | -3.55 | 69.99 | 4.72 | 华业香料 | -11.51 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 1.21 | 123.20 | 129.70 | 科力股份 | 26.67 | | 国防军工 | 0.86 | 269.16 | 87.81 | 捷强装备 | 20.01 | | 公用事业 | 0.35 | 117.79 | 52.53 | 首华燃气 | 11.55 | | 交通运输 | -0.18 | 137.98 | 26.81 | 锦江在线 | -4.81 | | 煤炭 | -0.23 | 33.56 | 31.32 | 冀中能源 | -6.11 | | 综合 | -0.42 | 13.45 | 35.26 | 上海三毛 | -3.63 | | 银行 | -0.51 | 122.57 | 13.03 | 渝农商行 | -2.97 | | 有色金属 | -0.54 | 390.20 | 12.03 | 江南新材 | -5.95 | | 基础化工 | -0.61 | 409.28 | 27.48 | C海 ...

日前发布的《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》（简称《意见》）政策文件中，首次明确表 示，允许香港上市的粤港澳大湾区企业回归深圳交易所上市。 《意见》表示，健全金融服务实体经济的激励约束机制。支持深圳开展科技产业金融一体化专项试点。健全科技型企业信 贷、知识产权证券化、科技成果和知识产权交易等实践场景和规则体系。优化科技型企业债权和股权融资协同衔接机制。深 化绿色金融改革。支持保险资金依法合规投资在深圳发起设立的主要投向特定领域的私募股权投资基金和创业投资基金。允 许在香港联合交易所上市的粤港澳大湾区企业，按照政策规定在深圳证券交易所上市。 简单来看，在港上市的企业常见的架构分为两类，即红筹架构和H股架构。其中此次《意见》出台后，红筹架构企业回A上市 备受关注。 而创业板目前只针对"未在境外上市的红筹企业"。 从深交所的上市条件来看，深交所主板针对已在境外上市的红筹企业二次上市给出了2套标准，满足其一即可： 1、市值不低于2000亿元； 2、市值200亿元以上，拥有自主研发、国际领先技术，科技创新能力较强，在同行业竞争中处于相对优势地位。 | (1) 已在境外上市的红筹企业 | | | ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025 年 06 月 12 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 工企盈利视角看中报利润 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 系 核心观点：2024 年"924"政策转向后，市场风险偏好显著改善，增量资金入场和 风险偏好改善推动市场活跃度攀升，"牛市思维"主导下，部分受益于估值修复的 行业率先回暖。进入 2025 年，宏观经济呈现"见龙在田"的企稳特征，企业盈利 也开始筑底回升。然而，当前内外部宏观环境依然复杂，不确定性犹存，导致部分 资产波动率显著提升。在这一背景下，叠加绝对收益思维主导和投资者对均衡稳健 配置的诉求，市场对基本面的关注度开始提升。鉴于工业企业利润数据与上市公司 盈利间存在较强的联动性，我们在本篇报告中从宏观视角出发，结合最新的工业企 业利润情况，对即将到来的 A 股非金融上市公司中报盈利趋势进行前瞻性讨论。 规上工业企业盈利现状 ① ...

Group 1 - The three major indices opened lower on June 12, with sectors such as energy equipment, precious metals, and cultural media showing gains [1] - The high dividend ETF (563180) experienced a slight decline of 0.19%, with a premium rate of 0.03%, and several constituent stocks, including Huaron Co. (603855), Xiamen Xiangyu (600057), and Changjiang Media (600757), rising over 1% [1] - Recent data indicates significant net inflows into the high dividend ETF, with 9 out of the last 10 trading days seeing net inflows, totaling over 38 million yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Caixin Securities, the A-share high dividend sector is expected to maintain its value for continued allocation due to low-risk yield fluctuations and increased institutional investment [2] - The upward trend in the high dividend sector has not been reversed, with recommendations to focus on banks, coal, public utilities, and transportation [2] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests increasing asset allocation resilience and stability, recommending an increase in holdings of gold, high dividends, and medium-term bonds while waiting for opportunities to invest in growth stocks representing new technology trends [2]

【4个重要的分红节点】 收益分配基准日：5月30日，这个是用于确定可供分配利润的关键日期，也是计算当次分红比例的重要 数据。 6月12日，招商基金旗下中证红利ETF（515080）发布今年第二次分红公告，值得注意的是这已经是中 证红利ETF上市以来第13次分红。 【2025年第二次分红：分红比例0.99%】 根据分红公告，中证红利ETF（515080）二季度每十份分红0.15元，基准日基金净值为1.5225元，本次 分红比例0.99%。 此次分红实施之后，中证红利ETF（515080）自上市以来每十份基金份额累计分红金额达到3.5元。 | | | [利ETF(515080) 上市以来分 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 一分红 (元) | 分红比例(%) | | | 2025/5/30 | 0.015 | 0.99 | / | | 2025/3/4 | 0.015 | 1.01 | 1 | | 2024/11/15 | 0.020 | 1.32 | | | 2024/9/2 | 0.015 | 1.06 | | | 2024/6/14 | 0.020 | 1.29 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for global asset allocation strategies centered around three main factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1][2] - The proposed investment strategy is a "global barbell strategy," which includes stable assets on one end and high-yield, high-volatility assets on the other [1][2] - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates a focus on asymmetric pricing opportunities within various asset classes [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the U.S. trade policy is unlikely to reverse the three underlying logics of the new investment paradigm, potentially increasing global political and economic uncertainty [2] - The recommendation includes a focus on defensive sectors in response to potential U.S. economic recession risks, alongside the necessity of gold as a sovereign credit asset [3] - The domestic market is currently in a debt contraction phase, transitioning from "passive leverage" to "active deleveraging," suggesting that domestic interest rate bonds hold long-term investment value [4] Group 3 - The "barbell strategy" is also applicable to strategic asset allocation in China, with a continued positive outlook on interest rate bonds and a focus on dividend assets and AI technology [4] - The AI sector, particularly represented by the "Tech Seven Sisters" in the U.S. market, has shown strong performance, but significant investment risks are present this year [4] - Recommended sectors include resilient dividend assets such as utilities, telecommunications, and banking, as well as industries benefiting from the AI trend, particularly those in the infrastructure to downstream application transition [4]

Group 1 - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market mostly rose, with Energy ETFs and Biotechnology Index ETFs increasing over 1%, and Healthcare ETFs rising nearly 1% [1] Group 2 - Energy ETF (XLE) current price is $84.77, up by $1.20 (+1.44%), with a trading volume of 1.824 million shares and a total market value of $21.228 billion, showing a year-to-date change of -0.27% [2] - Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB) current price is $128.88, up by $1.29 (+1.01%), with a trading volume of 122,100 shares and a total market value of $10.233 billion, reflecting a year-to-date change of -2.43% [2] - Healthcare ETF (XLV) current price is $135.14, up by $0.99 (+0.74%), with a trading volume of 304,000 shares and a total market value of $25.860 billion, indicating a year-to-date change of -1.39% [2] - Semiconductor ETF (SMH) current price is $258.06, up by $1.10 (+0.43%), with a trading volume of 166,700 shares and a total market value of $3.051 billion, showing a year-to-date change of +6.56% [2] - Global Technology ETF (IXN) current price is $87.20, up by $0.23 (+0.26%), with a trading volume of 4,806 shares and a total market value of $1.221 billion, reflecting a year-to-date change of +2.89% [2] - Utilities ETF (XLU) current price is $80.86, up by $0.19 (+0.24%), with a trading volume of 531,700 shares and a total market value of $11.739 billion, indicating a year-to-date change of +7.59% [2] - Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) current price is $81.77, up by $0.19 (+0.23%), with a trading volume of 352,400 shares and a total market value of $13.837 billion, reflecting a year-to-date change of +4.57% [2] - Internet Index ETF (FDN) current price is $260.81, up by $0.39 (+0.15%), with a trading volume of 3,871 shares and a total market value of $17.318 billion, indicating a year-to-date change of +7.25% [2] - Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) current price is $213.94, down by $0.07 (+0.03%), with a trading volume of 77,139 shares and a total market value of $26.872 billion, showing a year-to-date change of -4.38% [2] - Technology Sector ETF (XLK) current price is $239.56, up by $0.03 (+0.01%), with a trading volume of 161,100 shares and a total market value of $76.193 billion, reflecting a year-to-date change of +3.21% [2] - Banking ETF (KBE) current price is $54.36, unchanged (0.00%), with a trading volume of 28,542 shares and a total market value of $4.208 billion, indicating a year-to-date change of -1.30% [2] - Regional Banking ETF (KRE) current price is $58.30, down by $0.01 (-0.01%), with a trading volume of 295,200 shares and a total market value of $4.866 billion, reflecting a year-to-date change of -2.75% [2] - Financials ETF (XLF) current price is $50.90, down by $0.10 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 817,600 shares and a total market value of $56.655 billion, indicating a year-to-date change of +5.70% [2] - Global Airlines ETF (JETS) current price is $23.24, down by $0.08 (-0.34%), with a trading volume of 16,867 shares and a total market value of $73.206 million, reflecting a year-to-date change of -8.32% [2]