（本文作者付一夫为苏商银行特约研究员） 刚刚过去的2025年，可谓是A股市场历史性的"跃升之年"，在制度改革与产业趋势的双重驱动下，实现 了一系列标志性突破。 从指数层面看，市场走出了一轮特征鲜明的"慢牛"行情，上证指数中枢从年初的3200点左右稳步上行， 并一度成功站上4000点，创下近十年新高。至年末，沪指更是走出了"11连阳"，展现出极为强劲的韧 性。不仅如此，A股市场的活跃度与体量达到全新水平，全年累计成交额首次突破400万亿元，日均成 交达1.72万亿元。此外，A股总市值在年内首次跨越100万亿元大关，成为全球第二大股票市场。而在结 构层面，大科技成为无可争议的最强主线，人工智能、半导体、算力、人形机器人等硬科技板块贯穿全 年行情，催生了多只翻倍牛股。 那么在2026年，A股又将如何表现？驱动逻辑是否会发生变化？收益预期是否需要调整？针对这些问 题，本文将尝试给出答案。 一、2026年宏观环境：内修外稳，质效并举 就基本面而言，2025年我国经济社会发展主要目标顺利实现，前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，在全球主 要经济体中保持前列，为"十五五"开局奠定坚实基础。面对2026年复杂的内外环境，中央明确 ...

Market Review - The South Korean Composite Index, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index, and Taiwan Weighted Index led global gains, while US stock indices declined during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026. In the A-share market, cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with oil and petrochemicals, military industry, and media leading gains, while utilities lagged behind. On January 2, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market opened strong, with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging 4%, particularly in semiconductor, AI computing, and internet giants, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite. In commodities, base metals and crude oil rose, while precious metals fell, with COMEX silver and gold down 6.39% and 4.63%, respectively. The offshore RMB strengthened against the US dollar, surpassing 6.97 on Friday [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend into 2026, driven by several positive factors. The macro policy cycle is favorable, with multiple departments rolling out supportive industrial policies and investment plans as 2026 marks the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are creating a friendly liquidity environment. Institutional funds, particularly in stock ETFs, have shown significant inflows, indicating a strong willingness to invest as foreign capital returns due to currency appreciation. The narrowing decline in PPI suggests a mild recovery in corporate profits, which will support market sentiment [2][4][5]. Key Focus Areas 1. **Overseas Developments**: The selection of a new Federal Reserve Chair is a key focus, with the December meeting minutes indicating a majority support for further rate cuts, though there are significant policy path divergences. The probability of a rate cut in January is low at 17%, with potential candidates like Hassett and Waller advocating for further easing [2][3]. 2. **PMI Data**: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returned to expansion territory in December 2025, with manufacturing PMI at 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%. This improvement in production and new orders supports the spring market rally [3][4]. 3. **Policy Measures**: The government has implemented a series of targeted policies to boost market confidence, including a 295 billion yuan investment plan and early release of subsidies and local debt limits. The real estate sector is also seeing policy adjustments to lower transaction costs, which may stabilize market expectations [4][5]. 4. **Institutional Investment Trends**: There has been a notable net inflow of institutional funds into stock ETFs, particularly those related to the A500 index, indicating a proactive approach to the upcoming spring market rally. The favorable policy outlook and stable currency are expected to attract further foreign investment [5]. Industry Focus - The focus for industry investment should be on emerging growth sectors supported by policy, such as AI computing, robotics, and energy storage, as well as sectors benefiting from price increases and "anti-involution" trends, including chemicals and non-ferrous metals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The transition from Warren Buffett to Abel marks a significant shift in Berkshire Hathaway's strategy, moving from brand investment to resource control, with a focus on hard assets and cash management [1][7][30]. Group 1: Financial Position - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have reached a record high of $381 billion, surpassing the total market value of its stock holdings, which stands at $283 billion [17][18]. - This unprecedented cash position indicates a strategic pivot, suggesting that Abel views the current stock market as inflated and prefers liquidity as a strategic asset [19][20]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Abel, who has a background in energy and railroads, is characterized as a pragmatic and aggressive leader, contrasting with Buffett's more romantic investment philosophy [10][14]. - Abel's approach is expected to focus on acquiring distressed hard assets, such as utilities and infrastructure, rather than traditional consumer brands [21][23][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy under Abel is anticipated to shift towards "survival" rather than "pleasure," emphasizing essential services and resources [28][30]. - Abel's recent acquisition of $4.3 billion in Google stock reflects a strategic interest in stable cash flow assets related to AI data centers, rather than speculative technology investments [28]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by high valuations and rising interest rates, which are seen as challenges for companies in utilities and energy sectors [20][21]. - Abel's strategy may involve privatization and full acquisitions of struggling companies, aiming to generate revenue through essential services rather than stock price appreciation [25][26]. Group 5: Future Projections - Projections for Berkshire's annualized returns from 2026 to 2030 vary based on different scenarios, with optimistic estimates suggesting returns of 13-15% through strategic acquisitions and share buybacks [29]. - The company is expected to evolve into a more stable income-generating entity, resembling a super bond or enhanced utility index ETF, with reduced volatility and increased dividend potential [3][30].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's stock price experienced a significant drop on the first trading day after Warren Buffett's retirement, reflecting investor concerns about the transition to new CEO Greg Abel and the company's future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 2, 2026, Berkshire's stock fell over 2% during trading, closing down 1.41% at $744,100 per share, resulting in a market value loss of over $15 billion [1][2]. - In 2025, Berkshire's stock rose 10.9%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 16.4% increase, marking the tenth consecutive year of positive returns [2]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Greg Abel officially took over as CEO on January 2, 2026, marking the end of Buffett's 60-year tenure, with investors evaluating Abel's ability to manage the company's vast operations and investment portfolio [2][5]. - Abel is expected to maintain Berkshire's decentralized structure, allowing subsidiary executives significant decision-making power, while also potentially implementing more traditional management practices [3][5]. Group 3: Cash Reserves and Investment Strategy - As of September 2025, Berkshire's cash reserves reached a record $381.6 billion, following a prolonged period of net stock sales [2][5]. - Abel will have the final say on capital allocation decisions, with Buffett expressing confidence in Abel's capabilities [2][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investors are closely watching for changes in Berkshire's trajectory under Abel's leadership, although no drastic shifts are anticipated [5][6]. - Abel faces pressure to effectively utilize Berkshire's substantial cash reserves, which could lead to discussions about initiating dividends or stock buybacks if performance does not meet expectations [5][6].

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Investment Trends - The AI infrastructure investment is entering a new phase, with traditional leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon seeing stagnant stock prices since last summer, while new entrants like Broadcom are emerging [1][2] - Investors are shifting focus to companies that can support global computing power regardless of chip type, with memory producers like Micron experiencing significant stock price increases [2] - The "power sector" within AI infrastructure is also transforming, with utility stocks stagnating while gas turbine suppliers like GE Vernova continue to rise [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market is undergoing a notable transition, with Eli Lilly outperforming the market while Novo Nordisk's stock has lost nearly half its value, leading to a 33% downward revision in earnings expectations for 2026 [3] - Investment focus is shifting towards new weight loss products expected to be approved next year, as the biopharmaceutical sector transitions from obesity drugs to a "Cardiology Renaissance" [3] Group 3: Retail Industry Evolution - The boundaries between offline sales, online commerce, and advertising are increasingly blurring, with analysts highlighting opportunities for e-commerce platforms to generate revenue through advertising and marketing agreements [4] - Retailers are exploring alternative revenue sources such as media and membership models, emphasizing the importance of delivery speed and value propositions [4] Group 4: Chinese Economic Growth - Goldman Sachs economists predict that China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, driven by technological advancements and a strong export position, even amidst tariff challenges [6] Group 5: Productivity and Profit Growth - The rise in technology-driven productivity is expected to support economic growth, although there is a risk of "jobless expansion" due to labor shortages caused by immigration restrictions [7] - Long-term productivity improvements are seen as essential to offset the impacts of an aging workforce and declining birth rates [7] Group 6: Alternative Investments - The private credit market is expected to outperform private equity in 2025, continuing to attract retail investor funds, while the cryptocurrency market is expanding with companies like Coinbase and Robinhood positioned favorably [8] Group 7: Military and Defense Sector - The defense sector is experiencing an evolving militarization, with the U.S. Space Force favoring innovators in drone and satellite technology, and Europe potentially needing up to $160 billion in investments over the next five years to enhance military capabilities [9] Group 8: Robotics and Autonomous Vehicles - Advancements in technology are enhancing the capabilities of humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles, with significant profit growth anticipated for industrial tech companies like Tesla [10] - China is actively building capacity in the humanoid robot supply chain and is leading in the autonomous vehicle sector, with projections indicating a $47 billion market for Robotaxis by 2035 [10] Group 9: Nuclear Energy and Rare Earths - The demand for clean energy is reviving interest in nuclear power, which had been sidelined due to past accidents, as it is seen as a potential source of electricity for the AI revolution [11] - Rare earth metals are becoming critical components in technology, with China currently dominating this sector, presenting supply chain opportunities [11] Group 10: Policy Uncertainty - Policy is expected to play a significant role in market dynamics entering 2026, with debates around the Federal Reserve's next steps and leadership potentially dominating market sentiment [13] - Key catalysts affecting market direction include Supreme Court rulings on tariffs, upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, and significant political events [13]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 27.8% in 2025, marking its best performance since 2017, following a 17.7% increase in 2024 [1] - The rise in the HSI was driven by record capital inflows from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, optimism about the future of artificial intelligence, and interest rate cuts [1] - The HSI outperformed two other flagship indices: the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (up 22.3%) and the Hang Seng Tech Index (up 23.5%) [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) increased by 31.0% in 2025, with mid-cap stocks leading the gains at 31.6%, followed by large-cap stocks at 30.8% and small-cap stocks at 28.8% [2] - Among industry indices in the HSCI, the materials sector had the best performance, rising by 161.3%, while utilities had the worst performance with a 5.7% increase [2] - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield 30 Index led the high dividend indices with a rise of 38.1% in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Climate Change 1.5°C Target Index performed well, with an annual increase of 31.2% [3]

智通财经APP讯，滨海投资(02886)公布，2025年12月31日耗资35.5万港元回购30.4万股股份。 ...

格隆汇12月31日丨滨海投资(02886.HK)公告，由于现有雇员医疗保险协议于2025年12月31日届满，于 2025年12月31日，滨海投资天津与恒安标准人寿订立2026年雇员医疗保险协议，据此，恒安标准人寿获 委聘根据各类保单为雇员在中国内地提供综合医疗保险。每份保单自2026年1月1日起至2026年12月31日 (包括该日)止，为期一年。2026年雇员医疗保险协议项下承保范围保险费总额为人民币2,819,420元，由 滨海投资天津支付。 ...

2025年A股市场圆满收官，这一年注定成为资本市场发展史上的关键节点——指数跨越十年关口、市值突破百万亿、成交创下历史纪录，在政策 红利与资金活水的双重驱动下，市场呈现"稳中向好、结构分化"的鲜明特征。本系列将通过2025年A股再融资市场情况，包括再融资受理情况、 上会审核情况以及发行上市情况，对A股再融资市场进行全面剖析。 根据Wind数据统计，截至2025年12月31日，全年再融资（包括增发、配股、优先股及可转债，仅统计已发行的）规模达9508.65亿元，同比增长 326.17%。其中增发（包括公开增发及定向增发）8877.32亿元，贡献了绝大部分增量，同比增长412.99%；可转债631.33亿元，同比增长30.77%； 配股、优先股募资额均为0。 年内沪深北交易所共受理再融资251家次，审核通过181家次，报送证监会188家次，证监会注册173家次，终止（撤回）35家次。据统计，各上市 板块再融资过会率均为100%。 目前，仍有235家上市公司处于再融资排队状态。按审核状态，已受理11家、已问询108家、已审核通过11家、报送证监会37家、证监会注册62 家、中止审查6家。 2025年增发项目共172 ...

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights that prices of cyclical resources are rising, driven by supply constraints and strong downstream demand in sectors like basic chemicals, new energy materials, and industrial metals [3] - The AI industry trend continues, with domestic electronic industry demand significantly boosted, leading to an increase in storage prices and sustained high growth in PCB exports [3][4] - Service consumption shows marginal improvement, with tourism in Hainan experiencing a price index increase due to travel demand, and pig prices stabilizing and rising towards the year-end [3] Group 2: Industry Tracking - Electronics - Mini LED technology is entering a rapid development phase, with increasing penetration in mid-to-high-end TV markets and expanding into lower-end markets and automotive applications [17] - The report anticipates that by 2025, Mini LED TV shipments in China will reach 9.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 122%, with a penetration rate exceeding 25% [20] Group 3: Industry Monthly Report - Aviation - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to turn profitable in 2026, driven by a recovery in public and business demand, with significant growth in passenger traffic projected for 2025 [21][30] - The report suggests that the upcoming New Year holiday will see strong travel demand, with expectations for improved pricing and passenger volume [33] Group 4: Industry Deep Dive - Cultural Communication - The report emphasizes the ongoing progress of native large model companies in Hong Kong, highlighting the potential investment opportunities arising from the commercialization of AI technology [35] - Companies involved in AI algorithms and applications are recommended, including Meitu and Zhejiang Shuju, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the AI trend [35][36] Group 5: Industry Tracking - Automotive - The report notes the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy for automobiles in 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles, aimed at boosting consumption [46][48] - The policy supports consumers who scrap their vehicles and purchase new energy or low-emission vehicles, with specific subsidy percentages outlined [49]