同时为了进一步鼓励出口，国家对那些出口企业进行出口退税。而这一措施一推行就是几十年，经济形势证明，出口退税已经是可有可无的政策。 2024年，中国出口退税规模已达1.93万亿，较上年增长12.6%，占当年税收收入比重11.02%。可见，随着时间推移，出口退税已呈现出尾大不掉的趋势： 出口是推动经济的三驾马车之一。过去为挣外汇，什么样的工业制造、农业生产甚至包括简易的手工业制品都一锅端的外销。简之一句话：国外有需求、 国内就能销。 一.多年间，中国对外贸易一直顺差，外汇储备已足够，出口退税政策的使命业已完成。如2025年前11个月中国贸易顺差1.07万亿、2025年12月中国外汇储 备规模33579亿美元； 二.出口退税最大的受益者是小微企业，退税金额9178亿元，占比39.7%；其次是中型企业，退税5104亿元，占比22.1%；大型企业退税8815亿元，占比 38.2%； 出口退税虽有益于助力外贸企业降低成本，增强国际竞争力，但其劣势也比较显眼： <1＞.让部分企业形成退税依赖。如义乌一打火机厂，出厂价1.2元，运到美国卖1.5元，运费远比利润高。但老板却说不亏，"国家退税8分钱，自己赚2 分"； <2＞.中 ...

第三产业中，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）比上年下降2.2%。其中，管 道运输业投资增长36.0%，多式联运和运输代理业投资增长22.9%，水上运输业投资增长7.7%。 分地区看，东部地区投资比上年下降8.4%，中部地区投资下降2.7%，西部地区投资下降1.3%，东北地 区投资下降15.5%。 分登记注册类型看，内资企业固定资产投资比上年下降3.8%，港澳台企业固定资产投资下降2.2%，外 商企业固定资产投资下降13.8%。 2025年固定资产投资(不含农户)主要数据 注:此表中速度均未扣除价格固意。 据国家统计局网站19日发布数据，2025年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）485186亿元，比上年下降 3.8%。其中，民间固定资产投资比上年下降6.4%。从环比看，12月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降 1.13%。 分产业看，第一产业投资9570亿元，比上年增长2.3%；第二产业投资177368亿元，增长2.5%；第三产 业投资298248亿元，下降7.4%。 第二产业中，工业投资比上年增长2.6%。其中，采矿业投资增长2.5%，制造业投资增长0.6%，电力、 热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投 ...

Core Insights - In December 2025, the industrial added value of large-scale industries in China experienced a year-on-year real growth of 5.2% and a month-on-month growth of 0.49% [1] Group 1: Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 5.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 0.8% in December [3] - Among different economic types, state-controlled enterprises had a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, joint-stock enterprises grew by 5.8%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 2.7%, and private enterprises saw a growth of 4.2% [3] - Out of 41 major industries, 33 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in coal mining and washing (6.4%), oil and gas extraction (3.7%), and food processing (3.2%) [3] Group 2: Product Output - In December, among 623 industrial products, 325 reported a year-on-year increase in output, including a 4.9% increase in ten non-ferrous metals and a 3.0% increase in ethylene [4] - The production of automobiles reached 3.412 million units, a decrease of 2.8%, while new energy vehicles grew by 8.7% to 1.791 million units [4] - The sales rate of products from large-scale industrial enterprises was 98.2%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.7 percentage points, and the export delivery value reached 1.4932 trillion yuan, showing a nominal year-on-year growth of 3.2% [4]

2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门深入贯彻 落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构 建新发展格局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，国民经济运行总体平 稳，经济发展向新向优。 一、经济总量再上新台阶，全年增长目标圆满实现 三、国内需求不断释放，外贸韧性持续彰显 消费需求平稳增长。消费品以旧换新等提振消费政策协同发力，消费需求持续释放，消费市场保持平稳 增长。2025年，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为52.0%。其中，四季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献 率为52.9%。 投资结构持续优化。"两重"建设加快推进，重点领域投资增长较快，积极发挥投资在扩内需、优供给、 惠民生方面的关键作用。2025年，资本形成总额对经济增长贡献率为15.3%。其中，四季度资本形成总 额对经济增长贡献率为16.0%。 净出口彰显较强韧性。面对复杂的外部环境，我国外贸结构持续优化，进出口实现平稳增长，对经济增 长的支撑作用较强。2025年，货物和服务净出口对经济增长贡献率为32.7%。其中，四季度货物和服务 净出 ...

资，民间投资下降1.9%。高技术产业中，信息服务业，航空、航天器及设备制造业投资分别增长28.4%、 16.9%。12月份，固定资产投资（不含农户）环比下降1.13%。 康义强调，总的来看，2025年国民经济顶住多重压力保持稳中有进发展态势，高质量发展取得新成效。但也 要看到，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少。下阶段， 要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存 量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增 长，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。 九派新闻特派记者 代梦颖 武菲菲 北京报道 编辑 王佳箐 吴迪 【来源：九派新闻】 1月19日上午10时，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年国民经济运行情况。会上，国家统计局局 长康义表示，2025年经济发展向新向优，预期目标圆满实现。国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发 展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。 国家统计局局长康义。图/国新网 康义介绍，初步核算，全年国内生产总值14 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, China's total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) is projected to be 48,518.6 billion yuan, representing a decline of 3.8% compared to the previous year [1] - Private fixed asset investment is expected to decrease by 6.4% year-on-year [1] - Month-on-month, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 1.13% in December [1] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry reached 957 billion yuan, showing a growth of 2.3% year-on-year [3] - Investment in the secondary industry totaled 177,368 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.5% [3] - The tertiary industry saw a decline in investment of 7.4%, totaling 298,248 billion yuan [3] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 2.6%, with mining investment increasing by 2.5%, manufacturing investment rising by 0.6%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increasing by 9.1% [3] - In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2% [3] - Notable growth in infrastructure investment includes a 36% increase in pipeline transportation and a 22.9% increase in multimodal transport and transportation agency services [3] Investment by Region - Investment in the eastern region declined by 8.4% year-on-year [3] - The central region experienced a decrease of 2.7% in investment [3] - The western region saw a decline of 1.3% in investment [3] - The northeastern region faced the most significant drop, with a decrease of 15.5% [3] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment fell by 3.8% year-on-year [3] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 2.2% [3] - Foreign enterprises experienced a significant decline in fixed asset investment, dropping by 13.8% [3]

一、相比 2024-25 年，AI 投资耗材的绝对量将大幅上升 90 年代后期互联网相关投资上升，但每单位产出的"耗材量"呈快速下降 趋势，本轮 AI 投资不仅相对（GDP 等）数额更大，"耗材密度"也更高。 2026 年，AI 投资周期将更多向数据中心和电力基础设施扩散。对大宗商品 的需求将指数型上升，且这类需求的价格敏感度较低。虽然需求侧的预测存 在分歧，但鉴于供给侧自律性明显上升，且过去数年 AI 相关需求预测均大 幅低于最终实现投资量，预计 AI+投资仍将对相关商品价格形成较强支撑。 二、2026 年全球财政同步宽松、且国防及公共投资支出比例上升 今年美、欧、日等均将实施扩张性财政政策。不同于疫情后以补贴收入为主 的各轮宽松，本轮财政扩张聚焦国防自主、供应链安全等、对应"耗材量" 也将明显上升（参见《如果美国对北约成员加征关税》，2026/1/18）。近 期，特朗普政府对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，并公开表示争取格陵兰岛主权的 计划，均将刺激全球国防支出继续上升，这一新增需求的价格敏感度也较低。 证券研究报告 宏观 更"耗材"的全球投资周期意味着什么？ 2026 年 1 月 19 日│中国内地 深度研究 2 ...

上证报中国证券网讯 国家统计局1月19日发布数据显示，2025年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）485186亿元，比上年下降3.8%（按可比口径计算）。其 中，民间固定资产投资比上年下降6.4%。从环比看，12月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降1.13%。 国家统计局1月19日发布数据显示，2025年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）485186亿元，比上年下降3.8%（按可比口径计算）。其中，民间固定资产投资 比上年下降6.4%。从环比看，12月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降1.13%。 分地区看，东部地区投资比上年下降8.4%，中部地区投资下降2.7%，西部地区投资下降1.3%，东北地区投资下降15.5%。 分登记注册类型看，内资企业固定资产投资比上年下降3.8%，港澳台企业固定资产投资下降2.2%，外商企业固定资产投资下降13.8%。 分产业看，第一产业投资9570亿元，比上年增长2.3%；第二产业投资177368亿元，增长2.5%；第三产业投资298248亿元，下降7.4%。 第二产业中，工业投资比上年增长2.6%。其中，采矿业投资增长2.5%，制造业投资增长0.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长 ...

2025年，面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门 深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两 个大局，统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，国民经济运 行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利 收官。 初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。分产业看，第一产业 增加值93347亿元，比上年增长3.9%；第二产业增加值499653亿元，增长4.5%；第三产业增加值808879 亿元，增长5.4%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%，四季度增长4.5%。从环比看，四季度国内生产总值增长1.2%。 一、粮食增产丰收，畜牧业稳定增长 全年全国粮食总产量71488万吨，比上年增加838万吨，增长1.2%。其中，夏粮产量14975万吨，下降 0.1%；早稻产量2851万吨，增长1.2%；秋粮产量53662万吨，增长1.5%。分品种看，小麦产量14007 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year at constant prices [1][5] - The first industry added value was 93347 billion yuan, increasing by 3.9%; the second industry added value was 499653 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%; and the third industry added value was 808879 billion yuan, rising by 5.4% [1][5] Quarterly Performance - GDP growth rates by quarter were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [1][5] - The Q4 GDP growth rate was 1.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] Agricultural Production - National grain production totaled 71488 million tons, an increase of 838 million tons or 1.2% year-on-year [6] - Meat production reached 10072 million tons, a growth of 4.2%, with pork production at 5938 million tons, up 4.1% [6] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.9% year-on-year [7] - High-tech manufacturing saw a growth of 9.4%, outpacing overall industrial growth [7] Service Sector Performance - The service sector's added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year [8] - Key sectors such as information technology services and rental services grew by 11.1% and 10.3%, respectively [8] Retail and Consumption - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 501202 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year [9] - Online retail sales amounted to 159722 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% [9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485186 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [10][11] - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%, while real estate investment fell by 17.2% [10] Trade Performance - Total goods import and export reached 454687 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year-on-year [12] - Exports increased by 6.1%, while imports rose by 0.5% [12] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable year-on-year, with a core CPI increase of 0.7% [13] - Producer prices decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [13] Employment and Income - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% for the year [14] - Per capita disposable income reached 43377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% [15] Population Trends - The total population decreased by 3.39 million to 140489 million [16] - The urbanization rate increased to 67.89%, up by 0.89 percentage points [16] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to face challenges from external changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [17] - Emphasis will be placed on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to ensure quality growth [17]