悄悄在放量，这就让我想起2019年那波科技股启动前的行情——往往市场情绪最低迷的时候，资金已经 在悄悄布局有逻辑支撑的赛道了。果不其然，午后半导体板块震荡拉升，晶丰明源直接20cm涨停，贵 金属更是全天活跃，招金黄金涨超8%领涨，三大指数也跟着集体收红，上涨个股超2600只，情绪明显 回暖了。 各位老铁，今天市场这波探底回升是不是让不少人悬着的心放下来了？帮主郑重陪大家盯了20年盘面， 这种先抑后扬的走势，其实藏着资金的真实意图，可不是随便反弹那么简单。 早上开盘的时候，零售、地产板块直接杀跌，好几只股封了跌停，评论区里好多朋友都在问"要不要割 肉"。说实话，当时我也在盯盘，看着指数往下探，但手里的自选股里，可控核聚变、贵金属的标的却 可能有朋友会问，这波反弹能不能持续？帮主郑重明确说，下周市场大概率会延续震荡回暖的态势，但 不会是普涨行情，板块轮动还会比较快。沪指在3850点附近有较强支撑，创指突破3200点后可能会有小 幅回调，但整体向上的趋势没改。核心逻辑很简单：一方面，国内政策面持续宽松，对新兴产业的支持 力度没减，可控核聚变、半导体这些赛道有长期政策红利；另一方面，全球流动性宽松预期升温，贵金 属作 ...

Market Performance - The stock indices showed strong gains in the afternoon, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by nearly 2% [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index was up by 0.97%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index gained 1.74% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching 21,193 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as retail, real estate, banking, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines, while the semiconductor sector saw a rally in the afternoon [1] - Insurance, electricity, and brokerage sectors showed upward movement, with active participation in nuclear power, ultra-high voltage, and commercial aerospace concepts [1] Investment Outlook - According to Xiangcai Securities, the market is expected to maintain a state of oscillation and recovery in the context of relatively eased China-US trade relations after previous adjustments [1] - Recommendations include focusing on dividend sectors related to long-term capital entry, traditional sectors related to "anti-involution," and consumer areas supported by policy for domestic demand [1] - Looking ahead, 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will drive the development of new productive forces in technology and environmental protection, with the recent Central Economic Work Conference affirming a positive policy tone for 2026, laying a solid foundation for a continued "slow bull" market in A-shares [1]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,530, down 0.04% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 27.27% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.83% to 5,534, with a year-to-date increase of 23.87% [1] - The Dow Jones Index rose by 1.34% to 48,704, with a year-to-date increase of 14.48% [1] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Renminbi Index is at 97.650, showing a 1M increase of 0.04% and a 6M increase of 1.76% [2] - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 5.26% over the past month, currently priced at $61.48 per barrel [2] - Gold prices increased by 2.21% over the past month, currently at $4,215.31 per ounce, with a significant 25.72% increase over the past six months [2] Key News - TSMC reported a 24.5% year-on-year increase in November revenue, totaling approximately NT$343.614 billion, despite a month-on-month decline of 6.5% [4][11] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology reported a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in smartphone shipments for October, totaling 32.267 million units [4][13] - The World Bank forecasts China's economic growth at 4.9% for this year, slowing to 4.4% next year, influenced by weak labor markets and declining housing prices [4][16][17] Automotive Industry Insights - In the first eleven months of the year, China's automotive production and sales exceeded 31 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% [4][18] - New energy vehicle production and sales approached 15 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30% [4][18] Construction Sector Updates - The nominal value of completed construction projects in Hong Kong for the third quarter was HK$73.4 billion, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year [4][19] - The nominal value of private land construction projects fell by 18.1% year-on-year, while public land construction projects saw a nominal increase of 7.7% [4][19][20]

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 功败垂成 盘面消息 今天 摩尔线程再度暴涨，收盘报 941.08 元 /股 ，创全天最高价，涨幅达 28.04%，总市 值已升至 4423 亿元。相较于上市后556 元 /股 的最低价，当前股价近乎翻倍；若对比 114 元 /股 的发行价，涨幅更为惊人。 作为仍处于亏损状态的个股，摩尔线程为何能遭到爆炒？核心原因有三： 其一， 2025 年科技股炒作中涌现 "市标率" 新概念。所谓 " 市标率 " ，是将国内相关科技 股与美国同类标的对标，核心并非比较估值，而是 比较市值 ， 所以出现了 "市标率" 这一概 念 。 既然寒武纪可与英伟达对标， 为什么 摩尔线程与寒武纪 不能做对比呢？所以，这实际 是 "市标率" 在国内同类股票之中的一个应用。 今天 寒武纪下跌 2.73%，收盘价 1382 元 /股 ，市值 5828 亿元，摩尔线程与寒武纪的市 值差距并非遥不可及，甚至存在超越可能。 其二，国产 GPU "四小龙" 相关标的上市进程持续推进。其中，沐曦股份预计下周上市，有 望吸引炒新资金聚焦；后续还有燧原科技、璧仞科技等公司排队上市，意味着相关概念题材的 炒作尚未进入尾 ...

Group 1 - The stock market is experiencing downward pressure, with previous warnings about potential declines in the securities sector [1][2] - The banking sector is playing a crucial role in stabilizing the market, acting as a support mechanism for the index [5] - The real estate sector is facing rapid declines, despite temporary relief measures being discussed, indicating long-term challenges [7] Group 2 - The liquor industry is also underperforming, drawing parallels to past market trends in other sectors such as home appliances and electronics [7] - Historical patterns suggest that current market behaviors in sectors like real estate and liquor may repeat past mistakes, highlighting a lack of learning from previous downturns [8] - The overall sentiment in the market reflects impatience among investors, contrasting with a more measured approach that emphasizes waiting for the right opportunities [3][4]

Core Insights - The market experienced a "high open, low close" scenario following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.7% and the ChiNext Index declining even more significantly. The total market turnover increased to nearly 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a significant volume drop despite the overall market decline [1][3]. Group 1: Market Signals - The first signal is the "increased volume" during the decline, indicating a significant divergence between bulls and bears, with some funds selling while others are actively buying. This contrasts with a low-volume decline, suggesting that the market is not in a complete downturn [3]. - The second signal involves a "fierce competition between new and old market leaders." Sectors like wind power and controllable nuclear fusion, representing green energy and future technology, showed strength, while traditional sectors like retail and real estate faced significant adjustments. This indicates a clear shift in market focus [3]. - The third signal is highlighted by the performance of individual stocks, particularly the "first domestic GPU stock" Moore Threads, which surged over 28%. This reflects a strong market preference for high-tech companies with top-tier technology narratives, suggesting that risk appetite remains selective rather than broadly retreating [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - For investors holding positions in strong sectors like wind power and controllable nuclear fusion, patience is advised as long as the trend remains intact and the underlying logic does not change [4]. - Investors still holding weak sectors like retail and real estate should reassess their positions. If there is no significant improvement in fundamentals, the recent decline may not be the end, and reallocating funds to more dynamic new leaders could be beneficial [4]. - For potential entrants, it is recommended to "buy on divergence." The recent volume drop has created opportunities for those interested in new leaders like high-end manufacturing and green technology, suggesting a wait for market pullbacks to identify core investment opportunities [4].

宏观日报 | 2025-12-11 上游价格持续分化，关注年末下游促销进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）国家统计局发布数据，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%，环比下降0.1%；全国工业 生产者出厂价格同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。 服务行业：1）北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决议，宣布降息25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场"鹰派降息"预期。"点阵图"显示，决策者预计2026 年只会再降息一次，2027年再降一次，然后利率将回到3%的长期水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前利率水平处 于良好位置，可应对经济前景变化，但他未对近期是否会再次降息提供指引。鲍威尔指出："值得注意的是，自去 年9月以来，我们已累计降息175个基点，其中自今年9月以来就下调了75个基点。目前，联邦基金利率已位于中性 水平的一个大致区间，我们也处于有利位置，可以等待观察经济的进一步发展"。2）全国零售业创新发展大会12 月9日至10日在北京举行，商务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国 内大循 ...

A股复盘 | 都要违约了还涨停 / 2025.12.10 万科下午竟然直线拉涨停了？又有什么小作文？且听我娓娓道来！ 早上，彭博报道， 万科今天召开持有人会议，争取债券展期，以避免违约。我没在意这条消息，上午地产也没什么太大动静。 下午万科忽然就要涨停了，赶紧找"小作文"。 一个没有找到原文了解的彭博消息出来了，说是据知情人士透露，中金再度参与万科 shukun，shukun方案已提交 。 但是仔细观察发现，这与11月26日REDD报的差不多， 当时的报道是，两名人士称，SZ 已将一份由中金参与建议的万科报告提交至省，省 将报告转呈至ZY。 就在我准备发的时候，地产小作文哐哐又出来了！不知道的还以为又要四万亿呢 关键是，后来彭博也发了地产异动的文章，但是原因中没写那条号称来自彭博的"小作文"，所以大概率是"炒冷饭"！ 不过临近收盘，万科今日持有人会议内容也流出，主要包括：12月15 日到期的20亿元人民币债券讨论展期一年，如果投资者不投票赞成， 公司将利用宽限期继续与投资者进行谈判。 会上万科强调，其流动性压力"一直在不断升级"，并指出， 该公司的房屋销售已从2021年的水平下降了78%而在此期间，该公司交付 ...

10日，两市股指早盘弱势下探，创业板指一度跌超2%，午后逐渐止跌，一度翻红；沪指跌幅明显收 窄。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.23%报3900.5点，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指微跌0.02%，沪深北三市合计成交 17918亿元。 盘面上看，银行、食品饮料等板块走低，地产板块午后拉升，零售、保险、酿酒、券商等板块上扬，海 南自贸、黄金概念等活跃。 德邦证券指出，近期指数分化与板块轮动加剧，资金向科技成长与政策催化板块集中，算力硬件、消费 等板块或成为短期主线。未来1—2周或将是国内外政策密集落地期，美联储政策、国内经济工作会议、 AI技术迭代等或将成为影响市场走势和风格的关键变量，需密切跟踪事件落地节奏与市场预期差。市 场当前预期美联储12月大概率降息25BP，若落地或将提振全球风险偏好，推动外资回流A股市场的概率 增加，但需警惕若出现"鹰派降息"对流动性冲击的影响。 ...

来源：股市直击 12月10日消息，指数午后回升，三大股指跌幅收窄。板块方面，午后地产股回暖，万科A午后直线拉升 封涨停；海南本地股冲高，神农种业20cm涨停，欣龙控股、罗牛山等多股涨停；大消费板块活跃，永 辉超市、中央商场、美凯龙涨停；下跌方面，AI应用板块大面积飘绿，胜宏科技跌幅居前；消费电子 板块持续调整，福蓉科技领跌。总体来看，两市个股跌多涨少，下跌个股超3400只。 截至发稿，沪指报3889.77点，跌0.51%，深成指报13243.13点，跌0.26%，创指报3183.14点，跌0.82%。 盘面上，海南自贸区、海南、贵金属板块涨幅居前；培育钻石、AI PC、其他电源设备板块跌幅居前。 ...