金融服务公司NatAlliance Securities国际固定收益主管安迪·布伦纳对此表示："威廉姆斯今天早上重提了 12月降息的可能性……这就是股市上涨和国债价格上涨的原因。" 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 20日，受美国官方的劳工数据导致市场普遍预测美联储将不再继续降息等因素影响，美股出现了一轮普 遍下跌。但据英国《金融时报》21号报道，在纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯公开表态支持降息后，美股 的反馈"立竿见影"，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.9%，而更广泛的标准普尔500指数上涨 1%，非必需消费品、医疗保健、工业和科技板块均出现显著涨幅。 著名国际投资银行及金融研究机构Evercore ISI副主席克里希纳·古哈就认为这是美联储的一个清晰信 号："虽然威廉姆斯可能是在表达个人观点，但美联储领导三巨头其他成员就关键的实时政策问题发出 的信号几乎总是要经过主席批准的。" 根据芝加哥商品交易所集团追踪联邦基金期货的数据，21日市场预期12月降息的可能性超过70%，而在 20日这一比例约为40%。 对货币政策预期较为敏感的美国短期国债价格周五也出现上涨。两年期美国国债收益率下跌0.04 ...

Group 1 - NetEase reported Q3 revenue of 28.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and an adjusted net profit of 9.5 billion, up 13% year-on-year, indicating steady growth despite a slow pace [1] - High valuations for NetEase are attributed to its consistent performance, which contrasts with more aggressive competitors that have struggled [1] - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its copper price forecast, predicting a decade-long bull market due to limited existing copper mine supply, with a projected timeline of ten years to achieve supply-demand balance [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs partner Tony Pasquariello indicates signs of a bullish "surrender" in the U.S. stock market, suggesting a new phase in the AI cycle, with skepticism about the sustainability of capital expenditures and future returns from large cloud service providers [1][3] - Despite a recent drop in the S&P 500 index, which fell nearly 1.6% and lost over $2 trillion in market capitalization, Pasquariello maintains a positive long-term outlook, expecting the index to close above current levels by the end of 2025, although he has lowered expectations for next year's performance [1][7] - The S&P 500 has seen a cumulative decline of about 4% since November began, potentially marking the worst November performance since 2008 [1][3] Group 2 - New York Fed President John Williams signals a dovish stance, suggesting that there is room for further interest rate cuts as the labor market cools, which has increased market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December from about 30% to 56% [2][5] - Williams' comments are significant as he is a key voting member of the FOMC, and his stance could influence the direction of the December rate decision [2][5] Group 3 - The market is experiencing significant risk transfer, with investors eager to lock in year-to-date gains, leading to increased selling pressure despite Nvidia's strong earnings report [3][6] - The focus of AI narratives is shifting towards Google's Gemini-3 model, which is seen as a disruptive breakthrough, potentially reshaping the AI investment landscape and increasing uncertainty around capital expenditures and returns [3][6] Group 4 - Employment data presents a mixed picture, with a three-month average job growth deemed "decent," but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.44% raises concerns, indicating a shift in the Fed's previously smooth path towards rate cuts [4][6] - The recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have reignited policy uncertainty, with some suggesting reluctance to cut rates in December [4][5] Group 5 - The current market volatility is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Fed's unexpected hawkish turn, internal divisions within the AI sector, and significant sell-offs in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a structural decline in the market [6][7] - Retail investor behavior has shifted from buying to selling, indicating a change in risk appetite, particularly affecting unprofitable tech and AI-related stocks [6][7] Group 6 - Despite increased market volatility, Pasquariello believes the primary upward trend in the stock market remains intact, with expectations of economic acceleration and improved liquidity [7] - The S&P 500 futures may further decline to the 6500 level, but the fundamental value logic of AI technology remains unchanged, with long-term winners likely to be labor-intensive companies that achieve profit expansion through automation [7]

随着向清洁能源的转型步伐加快，铜等金属正成为全球经济增长的关键驱动力——从电动汽车到智能电 网，无所不在。高盛的预测表明，项目延误和供应链缺口波及整个经济体。对于着眼于长期基础设施建 设的政府和企业而言，确保这些关键资源的供应正迅速成为一项战略要务。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛刚刚将其对 2025 年 12 月铜价的目标上调至每吨 10610 美元，显示出其对铜价 前景的乐观态度;与此同时，该行预计随着新供应进入市场，铝价将会走软。 高盛预测铜供应将持续短缺，而来自可再生能源和电动汽车等关键领域的需求将不断增长。该银行维持 其对 2026 至 2027 年每吨 10000 至 11000 美元的预期，并预计到 2035 年长期目标为每吨 15000 美元 ——远高于大多数其他预测。这种看涨观点基于许多推迟的采矿项目将被搁置，从而在未来造成供应不 足。另一方面，高盛预计铝可能面临困境：由于预计会有新的供应，高盛现在预计到 2026 年底铝价将 跌至每吨 2350 美元，直到下个十年的某个时候才会反弹至 2025 年的高点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite Nvidia's impressive earnings, the US stock market experienced a significant reversal, indicating that traders did not receive the risk "full relief" signal they anticipated, leading them to seek hedges against further losses [1] - The S&P 500 index initially surged by 1.9% but later fell by 1.1%, marking the largest intraday volatility since April, with over $2 trillion in market value evaporating from its peak [1] - The VIX index rose above 26, reflecting increased market fear and uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' trading department noted an increase in short positions across macro products, including ETFs and futures, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The report highlighted poor market liquidity, with the depth of S&P 500 orders dropping below $5 million, compared to an average of $11.5 million over the past year, which may amplify market volatility [1] - Historical data shows that since 1957, there have been eight instances of the S&P 500 opening up over 1% and then reversing to close down, with an average positive performance following such events [2]

为了人工智能（AI）的发展和普及，构成支撑的基础设施投资正趋于过热。从过去的历史中我们可以 看到，改变社会的大型基础设施建设都是在经历多次失败的情况下完成的。开始有人将最近的AI热潮 与投资热之后出现众多失败者的19世纪"铁路热潮时代"联系起来。 "搁浅资产化"的风险 "就像其他技术基础设施的投资周期所发生的那样，一些投资者或将受到严重伤害"，这是正处于AI投资 漩涡之中的OpenAI首席执行官（CEO）萨姆·奥尔特曼的话。 如果随着技术创新的推进，基础设施建设的成本降低，"任何人都将能够在笔记本电脑上使用个人的通 用AI（AGI）"（奥尔特曼）。这意味着过剩的基础设施投资将成为无法产生预期收益的搁浅资产。 开发AI模型的OpenAI、谷歌、Meta和亚马逊等"hyperscaler（超大规模云服务商）"正在进行前所未有的 大规模投资。美国麦肯锡估算，到2030年将向数据中心等投入近7万亿美元的巨资。 "可能难以置信，但互联网普及时期的投资并没有那么沉重"，OpenAI的首席财务官（CFO）莎拉·弗莱 尔（Sarah Friar）10月下旬在被称为"沙漠达沃斯"的沙特阿拉伯国际金融会议上登台，认为目前的状 况 ...

"虽然主动型资产管理人并不被强制要求跟随指数调整，但被剔除出主要指数无疑会被市场参与者们视为 负面事件，"以尼古拉奥斯·帕尼吉尔佐格卢(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)为首的摩根大通分析师们写道，并指出 这对Strategy股票资产的流动性、融资成本以及投资吸引力构成风险。 智通财经APP获悉，迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)掌舵的Strategy Inc.(MSTR.US)堪称是这轮加密货币下跌浪 潮中受冲击最严重的公司之一——如今还面临非常现实的重大风险：塞勒引以为傲的比特币金库模式基本 上失灵，以及可能被剔除出那些一直支撑其在主流投资组合中存在感的基准指数，尤其是纳斯达克100指 数。 随着比特币交易价格从历史最高点暴跌超30%，跌破9万美元重要关口且跌入熊市，Strategy公司(原 MicroStrategy公司)这家曾经被华尔街视为"人类金融史上最成功的投行"的比特币金库公司跌幅更加惨烈， 自7月高点以来股价已经暴跌超60%。 在本周的一份报告中，华尔街金融巨头摩根大通的分析师们警告称，有着"比特币大户"以及"比特币影子 股"称号的Strategy可能会失去其在MSCI ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 copper price forecast from $10,385 per ton to $10,610 per ton, reflecting an upward trend in the fourth quarter [1] - The bank maintains a price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton for 2026-2027, anticipating a slight market surplus [1] - A supply deficit is expected in the latter part of this decade due to increasing resource constraints and accelerated demand in key sectors, driving prices higher [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs projects a long-term copper price of $15,000 per ton by 2035, which is above market expectations and forward contract prices of approximately $10,390 per ton, based on the assumption that long-delayed mining projects will not come online [1] - The bank remains bearish on aluminum prices for the next 12 months, forecasting a decline to $2,350 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 due to new supply leading to market oversupply [1] - Although aluminum prices are expected to recover thereafter, they are not anticipated to return to current levels until the early part of the next decade, with long-term forecasts predicting prices to fluctuate between $2,900 and $3,400 per ton from 2030 to 2035 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has fallen below a critical level, potentially triggering hedge funds that follow trends to sell approximately $40 billion in stocks over the next week [1] Group 1: Market Movement - The S&P 500 index dropped below 6725 points, which is a closely monitored threshold [1] - Following this drop, it is estimated that $39 billion in stocks may be sold globally by trend-following hedge funds in the upcoming week [1] - If the decline continues, systemic trend hedge funds could sell up to approximately $65 billion in stocks [1] Group 2: Hedge Fund Behavior - Trend-following hedge funds aim to capitalize on market trends, whether upward or downward, based on signals from trading volume, price changes, or the speed of asset price changes [1] - Prior to the anticipated sell-off, these hedge funds had taken long positions in global stocks valued at around $150 billion [1] Group 3: Historical Context - The last time the stock price fell below this critical level was in October, with a previous occurrence on April 2 when President Trump announced a series of tariff proposals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility on November 18, 2025, with spot gold prices dropping below $4000 per ounce before rebounding due to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller supporting interest rate cuts [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Movements - Spot gold prices fell to $3998.2 per ounce, marking the first drop below $4000 since November 10 [3] - COMEX gold futures also declined, reaching a low of $3985.6 per ounce, while silver prices fell below $50 per ounce, with a daily drop exceeding 2% [3] - Following Waller's comments, spot gold rebounded nearly $40, closing at $4038.677 per ounce, while COMEX futures recovered above $4040 [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - Recent hawkish statements from several Federal Reserve officials dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut dropping from 93.7% to 48.6% [3][4] - Waller's dovish remarks emphasized the need for rate cuts to mitigate risks in the labor market, which reignited bullish sentiment in the gold market [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [4][6] - Central banks are expected to continue significant gold purchases, with 800 tons acquired in the first three quarters of 2024, a 34% year-on-year increase [4] - Analysts predict gold prices could rise to $4900 by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing demand from both central banks and private investors [4] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate will be critical for the gold market, as strong employment data could delay rate cuts, while weak data may boost gold prices [5][6] - Other significant events, such as the October CPI data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, will also impact the gold market [6]