[Table_Title] 解密非洲隐形冠军——扬帆非洲系列 行业研究丨深度报告丨建材 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 非洲是建材品类产能出海的沃土，能够带来第二成长曲线的市场，本文从发展潜力、代表性国 家、建筑公司等视角尝试分析非洲市场的投资机会，在美元弱势背景下非洲经济增长有望加速。 非洲本土代表性龙头为华新水泥&西部水泥、科达制造、乐舒适等，其中非洲建材龙头成长较快 且盈利较高，一是建材企业由于出海难度更大且时间更晚，当前市占率较低；二是水泥、玻璃、 瓷砖均为重资产且短腿行业，卡位优势尤其重要，一旦占据足够市场份额，形成较优的竞争格 局，容易形成较优盈利水平。重点推荐华新水泥、科达制造等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SFC：BQK473 范超 张佩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 37 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 解密非洲隐形冠军——扬帆非洲系 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 25.2 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in profitability, with a net profit of 2.003 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 76.01%. The net profit for Q3 alone was 900 million CNY, showing a remarkable increase of 120.73% year-on-year [2][3]. - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 25.032 billion CNY, a slight increase of 1.27% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a notable acceleration in revenue growth at 5.95% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to improved performance in overseas cement business and the consolidation of Nigerian assets starting in September [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.986 billion CNY, up 5.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 900 million CNY, up 120.73% year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 12.30%, reflecting a significant improvement from previous quarters [1][2]. - The gross margin and net margin for the period were 29.50% and 10.01%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [2]. Future Outlook - Despite the domestic cement demand being in a downward trend, the company exhibits strong resilience. The ongoing international expansion and the integration of high-margin aggregate business are expected to enhance future profitability. The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 36.027 billion CNY, 39.343 billion CNY, and 42.837 billion CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.29%, 9.21%, and 8.88% [3]. - The expected net profits for the same period are 3.019 billion CNY, 3.496 billion CNY, and 3.882 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.93%, 15.82%, and 11.03% [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the construction and decoration industry. Core Insights - High-quality development, expanding domestic demand, and comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition are key themes for the 14th Five-Year Plan. The report emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic market as a strategic support for modernization in China. It suggests that construction companies will adopt a mindset focused on cash flow and profitability rather than just revenue growth [1][2]. - As of September 2025, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1%. Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 13.9% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% [1][2]. - The report indicates that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable during the 14th Five-Year Plan period despite current challenges [2]. Market Performance - During the week of October 20-24, 2025, the construction index rose by 2.91%, and the building materials index increased by 1.60%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%. Year-to-date, the construction index has increased by 9.76%, ranking 19th out of 30 industries, and the building materials index has risen by 18.69%, ranking 12th [3][8]. - The report highlights that the market is becoming more active, particularly for low-growth, low-valuation, and low-holding construction and building materials sectors, especially heavyweight stocks [3][8]. Special Bonds and Funding Status - As of October 24, 2025, a total of 1,123.61 billion yuan in new local government special bonds were issued during the week, a week-on-week increase of 459.27%. The cumulative issuance for the year reached 38,096.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22% [2][19]. - The report notes that the funding availability rate for construction sites was 59.62%, with non-residential projects at 61.06% and residential projects at 52.76% [24]. Cement Industry Data - The national average cement price as of October 23, 2025, was 263.5 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. The report anticipates that cement prices will continue to fluctuate [35][39]. - Cement production from January to September 2025 totaled 1.259 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, with September's production down 8.6% compared to the previous year [49][55]. Key Company Orders and Valuation - The report suggests focusing on major construction blue-chip stocks such as China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction, as well as companies involved in overseas projects and those benefiting from domestic demand [3][8]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios for the construction and building materials sectors are 9.46 and 21.72, respectively, indicating that the construction sector is at a historically low valuation level [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak fundamentals, with expectations for more supportive real estate policies [1] - The recent Central Committee meeting emphasized the importance of building a strong domestic market and enhancing effective investment, which could positively impact the construction materials sector [2] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects and the positive changes in supply-side dynamics for cement and glass industries [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) rose by 0.40%, with cement and glass manufacturing declining by 0.72% and 0.89%, respectively, while fiberglass manufacturing increased by 3.37% [1][12] - The net inflow of funds into the construction materials sector was +415 million yuan during this period [1] Cement Industry Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, the national cement price index was 343.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% [17] - The total cement output for the week was 2.616 million tons, up 3.46% from the previous week [17] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 63.75%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.39 percentage points [17] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of October 23, 2025, was 1243.68 yuan/ton, down 4.40% from the previous week [5] - The inventory of raw glass in 13 provinces increased by 2.9 million heavy boxes week-on-week, indicating a growing supply [5] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with demand showing slight improvement [6] - The average price of electronic fiberglass was stable, with high-end products experiencing tight supply [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remained stable, with a production volume of 1857 tons and an operating rate of 61.69% [7] - The industry continues to face challenges with a negative gross margin, indicating ongoing losses for many companies [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Beixin Building Materials (Buy) [8] - Weixing New Materials (Overweight) [8] - Sankeshu (Buy) [8] - China Jushi (Buy) [8] - Yinlong Co. (Buy) [8] - Puren Co. (Buy) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in Africa, and highlights the potential for significant contributions from companies like Huaxin Cement and China National Materials [3][12] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the growing foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in Africa, with notable increases in Zambia and Mozambique for 2024, and a consistent growth trend in Tanzania from 2021 to 2024 [3][12] - The report expresses optimism regarding AI-driven new materials, anticipating that leading companies will actively expand production to meet high demand [3][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report notes that the focus on overseas performance is expected to rise, particularly with the recent quarterly reports from Huaxin Cement and China National Materials, indicating strong overseas order performance [3][12] - It highlights positive currency exchange trends in Africa, with significant appreciation in currencies like the Tanzanian shilling and Nigerian naira during Q3 [3][12] Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 348 RMB/t this week, down 63 RMB/t year-on-year but up 1 RMB/t month-on-month, with an average national shipment rate of 45.1% [4][14] - The report indicates a decline in glass prices, with the average price for float glass at 1243.68 RMB/ton, down 4.40% from the previous week [4][14] Market Performance - The construction materials index decreased by 0.60% this week, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and cement manufacturing showing declines of 1.82% and 1.90%, respectively [17] - The report notes that the domestic concrete mixing station's capacity utilization rate was 7.23%, reflecting a slight decrease [4][14] Price Changes in Construction Materials - The report details that the national cement market price increased by 0.4% this week, with price adjustments in regions like Guizhou and Jiangsu [24][27] - Float glass prices have shown a downward trend, with the average price dropping significantly due to increased inventory levels [40][53] Fiber and Carbon Fiber Market - The report states that the domestic price for 2400tex alkali-free winding direct yarn remains stable at 3524.75 RMB/ton, with no significant changes observed [60] - The carbon fiber market price is reported to be stable at 83.75 RMB/kg, supported by low raw material prices [67][70]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes urban renewal and underground pipeline renovation, with an expected investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for over 700,000 kilometers of pipeline construction [6] - The report highlights the impact of renewed tariff conflicts and the acceleration of industry self-discipline, recommending companies with strong pricing power and cost advantages in the cement and waterproof sectors [6] - The report notes that the special electronic fabric sector is experiencing high demand, with companies like China Jushi and China National Materials Technology benefiting from this trend [7] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - Recommended companies benefiting from urban pipeline renovation include Qinglong Pipe Industry, Donghong Co., and China Liansu [6] - In the cement sector, companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are recommended due to their cost and scale advantages amid tariff conflicts [6] - The waterproof industry is seeing frequent price increases, with recommendations for Oriental Yuhong and Keshun Co. [6] - In the photovoltaic glass sector, companies such as Qibin Group, Fuyao Glass, and Xinyi Solar are recommended due to price increases [6] - The report suggests strong resilience in operations for companies like Sanhe Tree and high dividend yield firms like Rabbit Baby and Weixing New Materials [6] - The fire alarm leader Qingniao Fire is recommended due to its upcoming commercialization of fire-fighting robots [7] - The report highlights the strong performance of special electronic fabrics, recommending China Jushi and China National Materials Technology [9] Market Trends - The national cement market price increased by 0.4% week-on-week, with price rises in regions like Guizhou and Jiangsu [22][23] - The average price of float glass decreased by 4.40% to 1243.68 yuan/ton, indicating a shift from an upward trend to a decline [64] - The photovoltaic glass market remains stable, with mainstream order prices for 2.0mm coated panels at around 13 yuan/square meter [72]

拟变更公司全称、证券简称，终止筹划境外子公司分拆上市，被誉为"中国水泥工业摇篮"的华新水泥股 份有限公司（以下简称"华新水泥"，600801.SH）近期动作不断。 10月25日，华新水泥发布的2025年三季报显示，今年第三季度，华新水泥实现营业收入89.86亿元，同 比增长5.95%；实现归母净利润9亿元，同比增长120.73%。今年前三季度，公司实现营业收入250.33亿 元，同比增长1.27%；归母净利润20.04亿元，同比增长76.01%。 对于今年前三季度归母净利润同比增长76.01%的原因，华新水泥方面解释称，主要系"国内水泥价格同 比上涨，叠加吨成本下降，以及海外业绩持续增长，共同推动盈利上升"。 据《中国经营报》记者了解，华新水泥近期还披露了更名计划。10月9日，华新水泥发布公告称，公司 名称拟变更为"华新建材集团股份有限公司"，证券简称拟由"华新水泥"变更为"华新建材"。 对于拟更名原因，华新水泥方面表示，公司现有名称中的"水泥"已不能完全涵盖公司业务类型，公司名 称及证券简称变更将实现经营范围与公司名称的相符，准确诠释本公司定位，更好呼应企业愿景，品牌 价值进一步赋能公司，符合公司及全体股东 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector has shown a 1.85% increase this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 3.24%, indicating a 1.4 percentage point lag [2][9] - The report highlights the significant potential for investment and consumption driven by urban renewal and underground pipeline construction, with an expected investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - The report suggests that low-valued consumer building materials, particularly pipes and coatings, are likely to benefit from these initiatives, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies in this sector [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal, which includes the renovation of old residential areas and the establishment of safety management systems for buildings, indicating a robust demand for construction materials [2] - The report also recommends monitoring high-end electronic fabrics, African cement, and fiberglass products with price increase expectations [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The construction materials sector has underperformed the broader market, with notable gains in sub-sectors such as other structural materials and specialized materials [9] - Key stocks that performed well include Fashilong (30.6%), Sifangda (18.3%), and Ruitai Technology (16.3%) [9] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a focus on the following stocks: Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, Keda Manufacturing, China National Materials, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings [3][15]

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈彦/刘嘉忱 业绩回顾 3Q25 业绩基本符合我们预期 风险 需求恢复不及预期，行业价格协同不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 发展趋势 11-12 月行业或仍酝酿提价，"反内卷"有望催化吨盈利修复。我们判断11-12 月企业仍较积极执行错峰停 窑，水泥有提价空间。展望明年，我们认为若行业严格执行限制超产，熟料产能利用率有望提升至60% 左右，叠加公司管理层强化利润导向、价格优先，华南市场吨利改善潜力较大。公司今年充分计提固定 资产减值等，后续聚焦主业经营，轻装上阵，在25 年低基数下，业绩弹性可期。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到①上半年公司有超过1 亿元固定资产减值计入管理费用，去年同期并无相应计提影响；②水泥 量、价表现或低于此前预期，我们下调公司25/26e EPS 66%/48%至0.06 元/0.11 元；当前股价对应25/26e 28x/14x P/E。我们维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到"反内卷"或带动板块估值提升，我们仅下调目标价12%至 2.2 港币，对应2025/26e 34x/17x P/E，隐含24%的上行空间。 淡季水泥需求疲软，公司水泥销量降幅略小于行业。3Q25 公司水泥熟料总销 ...

智通财经APP讯，华新水泥(600801.SH)发布2025年三季度报告，该公司前三季度营业收入为250.33亿 元，同比增长1.27%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为20.04亿元，同比增长76.01%。归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为19.36亿元，同比增长82.03%。基本每股收益为0.97元。 ...