随后，交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注，再次完全定价美联储将在年底前降息两次。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9 月降息25个基点的概率飙升至91.1%，维持利率不变的概率为8.9%。 受此影响，全球风险资产大爆发，美股三大指数均涨超1%，中国资产亦全线走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2%，两倍做 多沪深300ETF一度暴涨超6%，热门中概股集体大涨。另外，加密货币市场全线拉升，以太坊过去24小时内涨幅超7%， 比特币涨超1%。 鲍威尔重磅发声 北京时间8月22日晚间，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表题为"经济展望与框架审查"的演讲。他表示，当前的形 势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。风险的平衡转变，可能需要调整政策。 鲍威尔在演讲开头就指出："风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。由于政策处于限制性区间，基准前景和不断变化的风险平衡可 能需要我们调整政策立场。" 鲍威尔的最新讲话释放重磅信号。 22日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，美国就业面临的下行风险上升，风险的平衡转变可能 使得美联储调整政策立场成为恰当之举。 鲍威尔表示，美联储一致通过新的政策框架，采用灵活的通胀目标制，并取消了通胀"补偿"策 ...

格隆汇8月22日｜南下资金今日净买入港股51.66亿港元。其中： | | 沪股通 | | | 深股通 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 深跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交割 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | | 中心同际 | 10.1% | 2.14 | 86.49 ( | 中心国际 | 10.1% | 8.79 | 49.08 6F | | 腾讯控股 | 1.2% | 5.45 | 43.85 Z | 腾讯控股 | 1.2% | -0.84 | 23.58 Z | | 阿里巴巴-W | 2.0% | -1.02 | 34.37 Z | 作就非合体 | 17.9% | -1.38 | 21.97 Z | | 卡班求合作 | 17.9% | -6.13 | 33.14/Z | 阿里巴巴-W | 2.0% | 4.88 | 19.00 Z | | 小米集团-W | 2.3% | -7.51 | 27.02 亿 | 小鹏 (年-W | 13.6% | -8.48 | 18.17亿 | | 小鹏汽 ...

2025.08. 22 | 纳斯达克100期货小型 23245.25d 25.50 0.11% | | | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克100期货微型 23244.50d 24.75 0.11% | | | 标普500期货小型 | 6401.00d 12.75 0.20% | | 道琼斯期货小型 | 44991d 137 0.31% | 20:37 蔚来盘前续涨超5%。消息面上，8月21日，蔚来全新ES8预售发布。行政豪华版六座/七座预售价为41.68万元起，电池租用方式购买预售价30.88 万元起。 16:33 名创优品美股盘前涨近8%，消息面上，公司Q2营收同比增长23%超预期。 微信编辑 | 生产队的驴（华尔街版） 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专用邮箱： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 本文字数：443，阅读时长大约1分钟 21:32 美股开盘丨三大指数集体高开 阿里巴巴涨超2% 道指涨0.37%，标普500指数涨0.23%，纳指涨0.19%。英伟达跌超1%；热门中概股走高，名 ...

VC还是PE心态看理想/物理AI/对组织力的怀疑与批评可以囊括所有看好理想人士近期对理想的观 点。 每一个具体的人，实际都是同时具备VC心态与PE心态的，只是说不同时刻占比不同。 VC还是PE心态看理想 VC心态： 1.更长周期看理想（比如3年5年以上周期） 3.能接受理想说不清楚靠AI长期而言如何收费，更多取决于认为这东西底层对世界的改变有多深刻， 创造价值的潜力有多大。 4.高容忍度，能接受理想实现长期目标过程中多次犯错，多次判断错误，多次说到没做到。 PE心态： 1. 较VC心态明显更短周期看理想（比如一年以内或几个月以内） 2.从务实的层面分析理想的价值（比如卖多少车，有多少营收、单车利润、总利润） 3.如果理想说不清楚靠AI如何收费，就直接选择不信 4.低容忍度，不太能接受理想短期多次误判 对同一个事，VC/PE心态视角不同，已知腾讯从QQ起步发展了微信，构建了巨大护城河，靠广告可 以挣不少钱。字节从今日头条起步发展了抖音/tiktok，靠广告可以挣不少钱。乔布斯2.0时代的苹果从 iPod起步发展了iPhone，谷歌愿意一年给苹果200亿左右美元图默认搜索引擎。 VC心态更愿意从QQ开始，就认为腾 ...

Group 1: Technology Sector Overview - Information technology is one of the top-performing sectors in 2025, but returns are unevenly distributed across the tech universe [1] - The Magnificent Seven, including major firms like Apple Inc. and Alphabet, have performed in line with the broader market, with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF returning 9.6% compared to 9.3% for the S&P 500 year-to-date [2] Group 2: Indie Semiconductor Inc. - Indie Semiconductor, a specialized semiconductor maker for the automotive industry, has a market cap under $1 billion and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 49.1% in Q2 2025 [3][4] - The company is preparing to scale production of its 77 GHz radar chipset and has found success with its LXM laser product, which could address a market worth up to $5 billion by 2030 [4] - Five out of six analysts have given indie a Buy rating, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $5.90, indicating a potential upside of 37.85% from the current price of $4.28 [5] Group 3: ACM Research Inc. - ACM Research, which specializes in chipmaking equipment, reported a revenue increase of over 6% year-over-year to over $215 million, driven by sales of its Ultra C WB wet bench tool [7][8] - The company has nearly doubled its long-term revenue forecast for its Chinese business to $2.5 billion, anticipating significant growth in the semiconductor space [8] - ACM shares have risen almost 14% year-to-date, with a consensus price target of $26.33, suggesting further upside potential [9] Group 4: Arteris Inc. - Arteris focuses on on-chip interconnect fabric technology and reported Q2 2025 revenue of $16.5 million, beating expectations despite a GAAP net loss of $9.13 million [10][11] - The company has a market cap under $400 million and is expected to have a significant impact in the AI chip industry, with all three analysts rating its shares as a Buy [12] - Analysts project a 12-month stock price forecast of $15.00 for Arteris, indicating a potential upside of 63.40% from the current price of $9.18 [10]

每经记者｜郑雨航 每经编辑｜何小桃 高涵 ① 【三大期指齐涨】道指期货涨0.28%、标普500指数期货涨0.20%、纳指期货涨0.12%。 ② 【蔚来盘前涨6.5%】蔚来盘前续涨6.5%。消息面上，蔚来全新ES8昨日正式开启预售，行政豪华版六座/七座预售价为416800元起，采用BaaS电池租用 方式购买，预售价为308800元起。 记者|郑雨航 编辑|何小桃 高涵 杜恒峰 ⑤ 【星巴克预计将在两周内收到中国业务的非约束性收购要约】据外媒，星巴克预计将在两周内收到针对其中国业务的非约束性收购要约。该要约涉及 星巴克在中国市场的运营权和品牌使用权，目前尚不清楚具体报价及潜在买家身份。 ⑥ 【特斯拉将引入豆包和DeepSeek大模型】据特斯拉官网发布的一份最新服务条款文件显示，公司计划在其中国销售的车辆中，整合由DeepSeek和字节 跳动旗下"豆包"大模型提供支持的车载语音助手功能。 ⑦ 【马斯克曾试图邀请扎克伯格参与收购OpenAI】据OpenAI提交的法庭文件显示，马斯克今年曾试图说服扎克伯格参与其对OpenAI的非正式收购要约。 但扎克伯格和Meta均未签署意向书，也未参与收购要约；OpenAI董事会于2 ...

补充资料：Box5:the relevant class of shares is Class A ordinary shares.Box28:the derivative interests represent ADSs listed on NYSE. 香港联交所最新资料显示，8月21日，首席执行官兼董事长何小鹏增持小鹏汽车-W(09868)310万股，每 股作价80.4852港元，总金额约2.5亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1133.98万股，持股比例为0.73%。 ...

8月22日，根据恒生指数公司发布的新闻稿，港股市场将调整多个指数成份股，其中恒生指数成份股将由85 只进一步增加至88只。 恒生综合指数成份股数目也有所扩容，由502只增加至504只。 上述变动将于2025年9月5日（星期五）收市后实施，并于2025年9月8日（星期一）起生效。 值得注意的是，这是恒生指数成份股的进一步扩容。此前，在恒生指数公司宣布的截至2025年3月31日的恒 生指数系列季度检讨结果中，恒生指数成份股由83只增加至85只。 恒生指数成份股再"扩容" 8月22日，恒生指数有限公司（简称"恒生指数公司"）宣布截至2025年6月30日的恒生指数系列季度检讨结 果，其中在港股市场最受关注的指数之一——恒生指数，成份股数目将进一步增加，由85只增加至88只， 加入中国电信、京东物流、泡泡玛特3只股票。 | 代號 | 公司 | 恒指分類指數 | | --- | --- | --- | | 728 | 中國電信股份有限公司 - H 股 | 恒生工商業分類指數 | | 2618 | 京東物流股份有限公司 | 恒生工商業分類指數 | | 9992 | 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 | 恒生工商業分類指數 | 另一 ...

- Model Name: Market New High Trend Tracking; Model Construction Idea: The model aims to track the market trend and identify market hotspots by regularly monitoring stocks that hit new highs; Model Construction Process: The model uses the 250-day new high distance to represent the new high situation. The calculation method is as follows: $ 250 \text{ Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the 250-day new high distance is 0; if the latest closing price falls back from the new high, the 250-day new high distance is a positive value, indicating the fall back magnitude[11][12][13] - Model Name: Stable New High Stock Tracking; Model Construction Idea: The model focuses on the time series characteristics of momentum, aiming to identify stocks with smooth price paths and continuous new highs; Model Construction Process: The model filters stable new high stocks based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and continuity of new highs. Specific screening conditions include: - Analyst Attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months - Relative Stock Strength: The past 250-day price change is in the top 20% of the market - Price Path Smoothness: Comprehensive scoring using the following two indicators within the stock pool that meets the above conditions, selecting the top 50% of stocks - Price Path Smoothness: Stock displacement path ratio - Continuity of New Highs: The average 250-day new high distance in the past 120 days in the time series - Trend Continuity: The average 250-day new high distance in the past 5 days in the time series, selecting the top 50 stocks[27][29][30] Model Backtest Results - Market New High Trend Tracking, 250-day new high distance for major indices as of August 22, 2025: Shanghai Composite Index 0.00%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.00%, CSI 300 Index 0.00%, CSI 500 Index 0.00%, CSI 1000 Index 0.00%, CSI 2000 Index 0.06%, ChiNext Index 0.00%, STAR 50 Index 0.00%[12] - Market New High Trend Tracking, 250-day new high distance for major industry indices as of August 22, 2025: Home Appliances 0.00%, National Defense and Military Industry 0.00%, Comprehensive 0.00%, Media 0.00%, Computer 0.00%; Food and Beverage, Coal, Real Estate, Banking, Consumer Services are far from the 250-day new high[13] - Market New High Trend Tracking, 250-day new high distance for major concept indices as of August 22, 2025: Digital Currency, Wind Power, Aerospace Military Industry, Auto Parts, Metal Non-metal, Automobile, Home Appliances are close to the 250-day new high[16] Factor Construction and Backtest Results - Factor Name: New High Stock Monitoring; Factor Construction Idea: The factor aims to monitor the market and industry trends by tracking stocks that continuously hit new highs; Factor Construction Process: The factor filters stocks that have hit a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days within the stock pool that has been listed for more than 15 months. As of August 22, 2025, 1606 stocks have hit a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days. The industries with the most new high stocks are machinery, medicine, and electronics, with 233, 219, and 174 stocks respectively. The industries with the highest proportion of new high stocks are national defense and military industry, non-ferrous metals, and medicine, with proportions of 52.94%, 51.61%, and 44.88% respectively[20][21] - Factor Name: Stable New High Stock Tracking; Factor Construction Idea: The factor aims to identify stocks with smooth price paths and continuous new highs; Factor Construction Process: The factor filters stable new high stocks based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and continuity of new highs. Specific screening conditions include: - Analyst Attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months - Relative Stock Strength: The past 250-day price change is in the top 20% of the market - Price Path Smoothness: Comprehensive scoring using the following two indicators within the stock pool that meets the above conditions, selecting the top 50% of stocks - Price Path Smoothness: Stock displacement path ratio - Continuity of New Highs: The average 250-day new high distance in the past 120 days in the time series - Trend Continuity: The average 250-day new high distance in the past 5 days in the time series, selecting the top 50 stocks[27][29][30] Factor Backtest Results - New High Stock Monitoring, number of new high stocks in different industries as of August 22, 2025: Machinery 233, Medicine 219, Electronics 174; proportion of new high stocks in different industries: National Defense and Military Industry 52.94%, Non-ferrous Metals 51.61%, Medicine 44.88%[20] - New High Stock Monitoring, number of new high stocks in different sectors as of August 22, 2025: Manufacturing 512, Technology 403, Cycle 343, Medicine 219, Consumption 79, Big Finance 43; proportion of new high stocks in different sectors: Manufacturing 33.01%, Technology 28.64%, Cycle 30.65%, Medicine 44.88%, Consumption 16.42%, Big Finance 18.86%[21] - New High Stock Monitoring, number of new high stocks in different indices as of August 22, 2025: CSI 2000 613, CSI 1000 275, CSI 500 125, CSI 300 54, ChiNext Index 19, STAR 50 Index 8; proportion of new high stocks in different indices: CSI 2000 30.65%, CSI 1000 27.50%, CSI 500 25.00%, CSI 300 18.00%, ChiNext Index 19.00%, STAR 50 Index 16.00%[21] - Stable New High Stock Tracking, number of stable new high stocks in different sectors as of August 22, 2025: Technology 22, Manufacturing 12; most new high stocks in Technology sector are in Electronics industry; most new high stocks in Manufacturing sector are in Automobile industry[30]

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年8月22日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为0.00%、 0.00%、0.00%、0.00%、0.00%、0.06%、0.00%、0.00%。中信一级行业指数中家电、国防军工、综合、传媒、计算机行业指数距离250日新高较 近，食品饮料、煤炭、房地产、银行、消费者服务行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，数字货币、万得风电、航天军工、汽车零部件、金属非金 属、汽车、家用电器等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年8月22日，共1606只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是机械、医药、电子行业，创新高个股数量占比最 高的是国防军工、有色金属、医药行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、科技板块创新高股票数量最多；按照指数分布来看 ...