所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 今 日 发 现 人民币汇率创三年新高，定价未现极端偏离 观点分享： 节后首周，人民币对美元汇率延续节前偏强走势。2 月 26 日，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘 中升破 6.84 关口，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破 6.83 关口，均刷新 2023 年 4 月以来高点。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛分析称，近期人民币对美元升值加速主要有以下支撑因素： 第一，1 月中旬以来美元指数冲高回落，延续了 2025 年开启的弱势调整；第二，当地时间 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，美国被迫以 15%的进口附加 税替代对等关税和芬太尼关税，有助于降低对华关税水平，强化市场对中国出口韧性的预 期；第三，前期国内企业持有大量美元多头，近期人民币升值引发美元多头回撤，市场结汇 盘增加，反过来推动人民币进一步升值；第四，全国两会召开在即，市场对于利好政策有所 憧憬。另外，中美经贸关系回稳及我国整体外部环境改善，美联储独立性屡屡受到冲击等因 素，也是近段时间人民币对美元汇率走强的重要背景。对于后市，管涛 ...

来源：东方财经 领克汽车销售有限公司副总经理穆军发文，回应了领克 Z20 车辆在行驶中语音误操作控制关闭大灯的 情况，并表示第一时间完成了语音控制优化方案，现已通过云端推送更新。 责任编辑：江钰涵 来源：东方财经 领克汽车销售有限公司副总经理穆军发文，回应了领克 Z20 车辆在行驶中语音误操作控制关闭大灯的 情况，并表示第一时间完成了语音控制优化方案，现已通过云端推送更新。 责任编辑：江钰涵 ...

资讯日报：美伊日内瓦会谈取得进展 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 2026 年 2 月 27 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日常跌 | 間微跌 | 年初至今 湖铁 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | | | | | | | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 26.381 | (1.44) | (0.12) | 2.93 | | 恒生科技 | 5.109 | (2.87) | (1.96) | (7.37) | | 恒生国企 | 8.814 | (2.44) | (1.62) | (1.12) | | 上证指数 | 4.147 | (0.01) | 1.58 | 4.48 | | 日经225 | 58.583 | 0.29 | 3.39 | 16.71 | | 新加坡海峡 | 5.008 | (0.87) | (1.06) | 0.00 | | 标普500 | 6.946 | (0.54) | (0.01) | 0.93 | | 纳斯达克 | 23.152 | (1.18) | (0.03) | (1. ...

期指：节后开门红效应转弱，震荡走势 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 金 融 期 货 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4726.9 | ↓0.19 | | 5998.5 | | | | | | IF2603 | 4712.2 | ↓0.40 | -14.67 | 790.2 | 55890 | ↓13915 | 145477 | ↓13028 | | IF2604 | 4706.6 | ↓0.40 | -20.27 | 38.4 | 2720 | ↓67 | 3092 | ↑365 | | IF2606 | 4671.2 | ↓0.52 | -55.67 | 268.7 | 19159 | ↓6155 | 85856 ...

每日市场观察 2026 年 2 月 27 日 【今日关注】 沪深两指全天围绕零轴小幅震荡，最终上证指数以微跌收盘，深证成 指收涨 0.19%。两市个股涨跌数量相当。热点方面，前期热点贵金属板 块早盘一度延续活跃趋势，随后电网产业链相关板块先后拉升，领涨 至收盘。消费、保险领域延续弱势表现，房地产概念同样转弱。 电网产业链的上涨逻辑与 AI 相关预期有关，此方向市场早先已有关注。 根据资金聚焦路径，可知 AI 相关热点正从下游逐渐向上游扩展。因此， 长期来看，电网产业具备较高投资价值。 节后两个交易日后，AI 概念重回资金关注视野。回顾之前成长概念股 投资逻辑，可合理推测 AI 概念有望延续从核心逐渐扩展至周边的相似 路径。因此，后续 AI+相关概念值得深入挖掘和关注。但短期内受年报 及一季报披露期影响，预计大概率仍以板块轮动为主。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：2 月 26 日，市场探底回升，三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指 盘中一度跌超 1%，黄白线分化。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.01%，深成指涨 0.19%，创业板指跌 0.29%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：2 月 26 日，上证净流入 141.84 亿元，深证净流入 ...

这不仅是默茨上任后的首次访华，更体现出德国工商界对华合作的坚定信心与务实选择。 德系车企高管组团"打卡" 此次德国车企高管随总理访华，并非简单的外交陪同，而是带着明确的合作诉求与战略规划而来，释放出对华长期合作的强烈信号。 访华前后，德国车企高管密集发声，直言中国市场不可替代。其中，宝马集团董事长齐普策在访华前公开表示，若德国车企忽视中国这一 全球最大汽车市场，将危及未来经济成功。他指出，如果对中国庞大的市场规模和创新潜力视而不见，"就等于错失全球增长和经济成功的重 大机遇"。 大众集团管理董事会主席奥博穆强调，中国对大众集团而言远不止是销售市场，更是全球核心创新中心与技术策源地，只有在中国成功， 才能在其他市场成功。同时，大众集团（中国）董事长兼CEO贝瑞德也表态称："无论是在出行还是可再生能源等关键领域，任何真正致力于 推动转型的企业，都不可能忽视中国。与此同时，欧洲，尤其是德国，也完全有理由阐明并追求实现自身立场。" 梅赛德斯-奔驰集团董事会主席康林松强调，中国汽车市场的电动化和智能化发展令人瞩目，"中国速度"正在深刻改写世界汽车工业的发 展格局。奔驰将借助中国的速度、创造力和强大的本土科技生态，通过进 ...

Group 1 - In February, nearly 240 listed companies were surveyed by various institutions, with over half achieving positive returns during the same period, and some stocks seeing cumulative gains exceeding 80% [1] - The mechanical equipment and electronics sectors were the primary focus of institutional surveys, with significant attention also given to cyclical sectors like basic chemicals [1] - Institutions are optimistic about investment opportunities in humanoid robots, upstream AI infrastructure, and certain chemical sector stocks that offer high elasticity and dividends [1] Group 2 - In January 2026, domestic automobile sales reached 2.346 million units, with the top ten companies accounting for 1.962 million units, representing 83.6% of total sales, indicating a high concentration in the market [2] - The automotive market is characterized by "steady start and structural differentiation," with increased competition among top manufacturers as they launch new products and technologies [2] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors saw 80 companies receive institutional surveys, with a focus on brain-computer interface stocks and the trend of innovative drugs going global [2] Group 3 - Several securities firms have held spring strategy meetings earlier than usual, reflecting changes in the competitive landscape of the industry [3] - The shift from "commission for research" to "service for income" is becoming more pronounced among brokerage firms [3] - The AI industry is entering a more pragmatic phase, focusing on revenue and profit, with significant investment opportunities in AI inference computing and domestic AI chips [3] Group 4 - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 11.83% to a high of 187,700 yuan/ton, driven by Zimbabwe's adjustments to lithium export policies, which may tighten global supply in the short term [4] - UBS predicts a potential third price cycle for lithium, raising the average price expectation for 2026 to around 180,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 5 - The A-share merger and acquisition market remains vibrant, with over 500 transactions disclosed since the beginning of the year, totaling over 100 billion yuan [5] - More than 50% of these transactions are driven by industrial synergy, highlighting a core market trend [5] - The hard technology sector is a primary battleground for mergers and acquisitions, with increased participation from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Group 6 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported record highs in trading volume and revenue for 2025, reaffirming its position as a global leader in new stock financing [6] - The exchange aims to enhance market convenience and competitiveness while continuing to invest strategically in emerging business areas [6] - Export-oriented companies are actively implementing measures to hedge against currency risks amid fluctuations in the renminbi exchange rate [6] Group 7 - Regions like Guangdong, Anhui, and Hubei are strategically positioning themselves in advanced fields such as AI, quantum technology, and high-end manufacturing [7] - The development of future industries relies heavily on original innovation and disruptive technologies, which are still in early stages [7] - Policies are increasingly systematic and comprehensive, supporting innovation from inception to market application [7] Group 8 - NIO's chip subsidiary, Anhui Shenji Technology Co., completed its first round of equity financing, raising 2.257 billion yuan, with a post-investment valuation nearing 10 billion yuan [8] - The financing attracted diverse capital participation, including state-owned capital and semiconductor industry funds, indicating market confidence in the company's technology and production capabilities [8] - The involvement of local state capital aligns with Hefei's ongoing investment in the integrated circuit industry [8]

监测数据还显示，春节期间，威海市农副产品批发市场蔬菜上市量总共为1245吨，水果上市量总共 为448吨，均价环比节前基本持平，保障了居民节日消费需求；汽车、家电及数码智能产品销售1.4万 台，带动消费5096万元。（记者 陶相银） 记者从威海市商务局获悉，2026年春节假期，威海各大商圈、步行街紧密结合"2026年威海迎新春 消费季"活动安排，围绕"乐购新春"主题，聚焦品质消费、创新消费体验、打造消费热点，重点监测的 14家商贸流通企业实现商品销售额83918.40万元，同比增长13.79%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro Outlook**: China's post - holiday market is active with increased trading volume and risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to see better performance from IC than IH. The bond market has limited short - term odds and should be traded with a band strategy. Global economic factors such as US - China trade talks, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical events impact the market. The smartphone and automotive industries face challenges, while the real estate market shows signs of recovery in some areas [7][14][15]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, steel and iron ore are expected to oscillate, and the future of these markets depends on demand. Some commodities like lithium carbonate are expected to be bullish in the short - term, while others like沪锌 and沪铅 may continue to be under pressure [16][25][29]. 3. Summary by Category **Macro News** - **Trade and Policy**: The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations is upcoming. The central bank supports cross - border RMB inter - bank financing. The RMB has appreciated rapidly against the US dollar [7]. - **Resource and Energy**: Zimbabwe bans the export of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, which impacts the lithium market. The third - round of indirect talks between Iran and the US ends, with significant differences remaining [7][8]. - **Financial and Market**: Compensation for investors affected by the valuation adjustment of Guotou Silver LOF starts. IDC predicts a 12.9% year - on - year decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026. Multiple smartphone brands plan price adjustments. The Chinese brand passenger vehicle sales decline in January 2026. The real estate market in some areas shows signs of recovery [8][9]. **Macro Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market is active. It is expected that IC will perform better than IH due to different sector performances and increased risk appetite [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is weak after the "Shanghai Seven" policy for the property market. Without interest - rate cut expectations, it is difficult for bond yields to decline further. Attention should be paid to the government's monetary and fiscal policies [15]. **Black Metals** - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The current supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is unlikely to be a large price change. The future market depends on the start of steel demand. Iron ore supply is abundant [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, it is not recommended to chase long positions after a large increase. Silicon iron long positions are recommended. Attention should be paid to the start - up of semi - coke plants [20]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and demand [21]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices will oscillate due to unstable macro - environment and inventory accumulation. In the long - term, tight raw material supply supports prices [23]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and previous short positions should be held [25]. - **Lead**: Social lead inventories are at a 5 - month high. Previous short positions can be held, but lead consumption may improve in March [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, it is expected to be bullish due to increased demand and supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pull - backs [29]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will have a wide - range oscillation. Caution is advised in operation [31]. **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Domestically, it is expected to be bullish, and low - buying and rolling operations are recommended. Attention should be paid to the demand after the holiday and international factors [34]. - **Sugar**: There is a short - term supply surplus, but the domestic sugar price may rebound due to restocking demand. It is in a low - level oscillation [35]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the spot price is weak, and the futures price will oscillate. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and old - hen culling [37]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple prices will remain stable, and the overall price will oscillate in a range [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. After the holiday, corn trading has not fully recovered, and there are supply pressures [39]. - **Jujubes**: Currently, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the sales in the sales area and the mentality of buyers [40]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the market has a supply - demand imbalance with more supply. It is not recommended to short near - month futures contracts [41]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply. The upside space is limited [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the short - term focus is on the impact of oil prices dominated by geopolitics [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure but are slightly supported by rising raw material prices. An oscillating and weakening trend is expected [45]. - **Rubber**: In March, the downstream export orders are good, and there is support at the cost side. Caution is advised when chasing long positions [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is still room for decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in butadiene and downstream devices [47]. - **Methanol**: The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there may be a price correction. Attention should be paid to port inventory and Iranian supply [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and the impact of warehouse receipts [49]. - **Asphalt**: It follows oil price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to restocking demand after winter storage in March [51]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it may be bullish, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. Caution is advised [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In the short - term, the supply - demand situation is under pressure, and prices follow oil price fluctuations. Consider long - short spreads for PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: In the absence of further geopolitical escalation, the main contract is expected to be bearish [54]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is at a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [56]. - **Logs**: The forward spot price is supported by cost, and attention should be paid to the impact of new delivery rules and market sentiment [57]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the difference between agricultural and industrial demand [57].

2、中国航天：今年计划实施2次载人飞行任务，全力推进登月配套设施建设 类型：行业 盘前要闻 情绪影响：正面 1、2月井喷！中国AI调用量首超美国，四款大模型霸榜全球前五 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 据报道，2月中国AI的模型调用量爆发式增长，首次超过美国。与此同时，全球调用量排名前五的模型 中，中国模型占据四席。相比用户数，Token调用量是更能真实反映AI模型使用强度、用户粘性及商业 价值的关键指标。中国模型厂商，正凭借快速迭代和成本优势占领全球市场，国产算力需求正经历指数 级增长。 3、未缓解AI担忧，英伟达深夜大跌超5%！市值蒸发万亿，纳指跌超1% 据中国载人航天工程办公室消息，2026年，计划实施2次载人飞行任务、1次货运飞船补给任务，来自港 澳地区的航天员有望最早于今年执行空间站飞行任务，神舟二十三号飞行乘组1名航天员将开展一年期 驻留试验。瞄准2030年前实现中国人首次登陆月球的目标，载人月球探测工程登月阶段工作正在扎实稳 步推进。 分散投资是唯一的免费午餐。 4、事关第六轮中美经贸磋商等，商务部最新回应 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 商务部新闻发言人何咏前在回应近期将举行的第六轮中美经贸磋商相关提 ...