昨天说了，国内股市近期别碰，不知道还有多少头铁，今天看看盘面，还是熟悉的指数涨0.5%即打压，跌回原点又会反弹。有人说这样能不能做套利，我 觉得可以，第一个是期指，不过日内单手续费高，你可以换成T+1对锁，如果不懂这个就别参与，毕竟带杠杆万一超级主力有一天不上班，这法则就无法实 施，还容易亏钱，毕竟砸盘主力是人为压制，并不是市场的本意，这种你开空单亏了还下个不能怪谁。第二个是ETF做T+0，低买高卖挺容易的，锚定0.5% 的上下区间就行，不过同样是在一堆垃圾里挑吃的，我想问为啥非得盯A股？商品不香吗？海外不香吗？比如黄金白银大宗，每一个都在涨价，这些又是市 场自由博弈，没有超级主力砸盘，另外，海外半导体高景气延续，天天都是涨价，国内不给炒你不会去海外？这个市场已经烂透了，我觉得没啥好留恋的， 谈价值没价值，谈炒作禁炒作，谈耐心资金就是每天乖乖被锤天天市值新低，哪有这样天天对着各类投资者整的市场。所以现在黄金、白银上涨很快，也是 超级主力的功劳，不买黄金白银，难道去买医药白酒吗？ 中线策略分析：【整体情况】 今天统计的买盘力量是3000+，明显感觉盘面越来越强，而且超级主力越砸影响越少，主要原因从数据上就看到了 ...

融 期 货 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4707 | ↑0.10 | | 7968.3 | | | | | | IF2602 | 4713.8 | ↑0.10 | 6.84 | 469.7 | 33112 | ↑4297 | 41677 | ↓328 | | IF2603 | 4719.4 | ↑0.11 | 12.44 | 1605 | 112956 | ↑28482 | 191907 | ↑18020 | | IF2606 | 4701.6 | ↑0.24 | -5.36 | 443.5 | 31319 | ↑10613 | 77122 | ↑4614 | | IF2609 | 4653.4 | ↑0.34 | -53.56 | 170.7 | 12162 | ↑5675 | 17758 | ↑6428 | | 上证50 | 3049.6 | ↑0.57 | | 239 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose, with IF up 1.7%, IH up 1.9%, IC up 2.42%, and IM up 1.65%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 12,633 lots, 6,465 lots, 27,205 lots, and 18,204 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC increased by 6,165 lots, 6,283 lots, and 6,560 lots respectively, while the total positions of IM decreased by 176 lots [1][2]. - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The Shanghai Composite Index set a record for the longest consecutive daily gains, closing up 1.5% at 4083.67 on January 6, reaching a new high in over 10 years and achieving 13 consecutive daily gains. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 1.59%. The market turnover expanded to 2.83 trillion yuan, a new high in over three months. The Hong Kong stock market rose unilaterally. The US three major stock indexes all closed up, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new record closing highs [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4790.7, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IF2601 closed at 4795.4, up 1.70% with a basis of 4.71; IF2602 closed at 4784.8, up 1.70% with a basis of - 5.89; IF2603 closed at 4778, up 1.71% with a basis of - 12.69; IF2606 closed at 4734, up 1.75% with a basis of - 56.69 [1]. - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 3158.8, up 1.90%. Among its futures contracts, IH2601 closed at 3158.8, up 1.90% with a basis of 0.04; IH2602 closed at 3159.2, up 2.00% with a basis of 0.44; IH2603 closed at 3161.8, up 1.96% with a basis of 3.04; IH2606 closed at 3150.8, up 1.94% with a basis of - 7.96 [1]. - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 7814.1, up 2.13%. Among its futures contracts, IC2601 closed at 7836, up 2.42% with a basis of 21.86; IC2602 closed at 7805.6, up 2.56% with a basis of - 8.54; IC2603 closed at 7786.4, up 2.69% with a basis of - 27.74; IC2606 closed at 7613.4, up 2.84% with a basis of - 200.7 [1]. - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7864.9, up 1.43%. Among its futures contracts, IM2601 closed at 7875, up 1.65% with a basis of 10.1; IM2602 closed at 7813.6, up 1.73% with a basis of - 51.3; IM2603 closed at 7762.4, up 1.80% with a basis of - 102.5; IM2606 closed at 7536.2, up 1.95% with a basis of - 328.7 [1]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 12,633 lots, 6,465 lots, 27,205 lots, and 18,204 lots respectively, indicating increased trading enthusiasm [2]. - **Positions**: The total positions of IF, IH, and IC increased by 6,165 lots, 6,283 lots, and 6,560 lots respectively, while the total positions of IM decreased by 176 lots [2]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2601, long - order changes were - 939 and short - order changes were - 669; for IF2603, long - order changes were 3334 and short - order changes were 3459; for IF2606, long - order changes were 1751 and short - order changes were 2227 [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2601, long - order changes were 1197 and short - order changes were 1489; for IH2603, long - order changes were 2916 and short - order changes were 3397; for IH2606, long - order changes were 308 and short - order changes were 284 [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2601, long - order changes were - 1235 and short - order changes were - 1981; for IC2602, long - order changes were 1394 and short - order changes were 1969; for IC2603, long - order changes were 1900 and short - order changes were 3413; for IC2606, long - order changes were 1418 and short - order changes were 2141 [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2601, long - order changes were - 2606 and short - order changes were - 4008; for IM2602, long - order net changes were 134 and short - order net changes were - 1861; for IM2603, long - order changes were 1604 and short - order changes were 716 [5]. 3.4 Market Trends and Drivers - **A - share Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index set a record for the longest consecutive daily gains, closing up 1.5% at 4083.67 on January 6, reaching a new high in over 10 years. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 1.59%. The market turnover expanded to 2.83 trillion yuan, a new high in over three months [6]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong stock market rose unilaterally, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.38% at 26710.45, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.46%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 1.05%. Southbound capital had a net purchase of HK$2.879 billion [6]. - **US Stock Market**: The US three major stock indexes all closed up, with the Dow Jones up 0.99% at 49462.08, the S&P 500 up 0.62% at 6944.82, and the Nasdaq up 0.65% at 23547.17. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 reached new record closing highs [7]. - **A - share New Account Openings**: In December 2025, there were 2.5967 million new A - share accounts opened, a month - on - month increase of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 31%. In 2025, a total of 27.4369 million new accounts were opened, a year - on - year increase of 9.75% [7]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China deployed key work for 2026, including flexible use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, improving the structural monetary policy tool system, and strengthening financial market supervision [7].

Core Insights - The article reflects on the investment journey of the year, highlighting a strategic focus on convertible bonds and commodity futures, which yielded significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The initial investment strategy was conservative, focusing on high-priced low-premium convertible bonds and commodity futures, leading to over 50% returns early in the year [1]. - The strategy evolved to include a shift to low-priced convertible bonds as the market premium rates increased, ensuring steady gains without losses [1]. - The article emphasizes a flexible approach to trading, adjusting positions based on market movements, particularly in response to significant index fluctuations [1][4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The overall annual return was reported at 43%, with a more aggressive small account yielding 81.87% [2]. - The profit distribution across different investment categories was as follows: convertible bonds 51.55%, index options 26.69%, stocks 4.24%, commodity futures 15.12%, and QFII 1.68% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 anticipates a slow bull market with potential for short-term volatility, suggesting a balanced portfolio of 50% index futures, 50% convertible bonds, and 30% commodity futures [3][4]. - The article stresses the importance of adapting strategies based on market conditions, including decisive actions on stop-loss triggers and opportunities for additional investments [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. The overall trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The overall open interest of each index also decreased. The market is affected by factors such as A - share index differentiation, policy information at home and abroad, and central bank decisions [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4552.8, down 0.59%. The IF2512 contract closed at 4550.4, down 0.73%, with a basis of - 2.39, and its trading volume decreased by 31440 and open interest decreased by 24245 [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2998.5, up 0.23%. The IH2512 contract closed at 2995, down 0.02%, with a basis of - 3.52, and its trading volume decreased by 13480 and open interest decreased by 11717 [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 7100.8, down 0.52%. The IC2512 contract closed at 7101, down 0.71%, with a basis of 0.16, and its trading volume decreased by 29672 and open interest decreased by 22568 [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 7272.4, down 0.22%. The IM2512 contract closed at 7275.4, down 0.26%, with a basis of 3, and its trading volume decreased by 45179 and open interest decreased by 35409 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 43587 lots, IH by 16253 lots, IC by 38325 lots, and IM by 65504 lots [2] - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF decreased by 7327 lots, IH by 8002 lots, IC by 8257 lots, and IM by 18274 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member's Open Interest Changes in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the long positions of IF2512 decreased by 16327, and the short positions decreased by 19569 with a net change of - 4749 in short positions [5] - For IH contracts, the long positions of IH2512 decreased by 8781, and the short positions decreased by 9176 with a net change of - 5721 in short positions [5] - For IC contracts, the long positions of IC2512 decreased by 16708, and the short positions decreased by 18402 with a net change of - 5523 in short positions [5] - For IM contracts, the long positions of IM2512 decreased by 25000, and the short positions decreased by 28272 [5] 3.4 Market Trends and Driving Factors - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **A - share Market**: A - share market showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 3876.37 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.68 trillion yuan, down from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [6] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.12% to 25498.13 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.73% to 5418.29 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.02% to 8841.51 points. The market trading volume was HK$1623.77 billion, down from HK$1831.41 billion the previous day [7] - **Policy Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. Trump said that the next Fed chair nominee will support "substantial" rate cuts [7] - **Central Bank Decisions**: The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% [7][8] - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14% to 47951.85 points, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.79% to 6774.76 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.38% to 23006.36 points [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights a unique trader from Wenzhou, Zhejiang, who combines his experience in the restaurant industry with a long-term investment strategy in the futures market, particularly focusing on index futures starting from October 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - The trader emphasizes a long-term holding strategy, transitioning from commodity futures to index futures due to favorable national policy directions that create a bullish market opportunity [1]. - His core trading strategy is defined as "valuation anchoring + moving average following," primarily using a 60-day moving average as a directional indicator, supplemented by MACD for entry timing [1]. - The trader focuses on a dynamic adjustment mechanism, targeting the more elastic CSI 1000 during bullish phases and shifting to blue-chip stocks like CSI 300 or SSE 50 during defensive phases to balance risk and return [1]. Group 2: Risk Management and Performance - Compared to short-term traders, the trader adopts a more relaxed risk control approach, allowing for larger stop-loss spaces around the moving average system and adjusting positions based on market conditions [2]. - During a recent competition, the trader experienced significant drawdowns but managed to switch holdings effectively, maintaining a core position while adapting to market changes, which helped recover net value in subsequent uptrends [2]. - The trader's average annualized return over the past three years has been stable, reflecting a long-term investment characteristic, with a focus on capturing major trends and patiently waiting during volatile markets [2]. Group 3: Personal Approach and Future Plans - The trader prefers to operate independently, avoiding external influences that could disrupt his judgment, and has returned to a simple moving average system after experimenting with various technical strategies [2]. - Future plans include continuing to focus on proprietary capital management without considering external fund management [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of stock index futures continues, and the real breakthrough depends on policy signals. The market is affected by the capital supply - demand logic before the end of the year, and the market's expectation of the spring rally is rising. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision will also affect the market [8][9]. - For ethylene glycol, the trend is weak, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be inversely arbitraged at high levels. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11][79]. - For offset printing paper, after the long - position stop - profit, the market is weak. Although the sharp decline gives the cost - effectiveness of long - position, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term [12][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: Short - term rebound continues, and the breakthrough depends on policy signals. Affected by year - end capital supply - demand logic, and the expectation of spring rally is rising. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision is also influential [8][9]. - **Analysis**: The market is in a volatile state recently, with no unexpected bullish or bearish factors. The reduction of risk factors for insurance companies' related businesses and the relaxation of brokers' capital space and leverage limits are beneficial to the financial sector. The market is looking forward to the "15th Five - Year Plan" policy, and the Fed's interest - rate decision will also affect the market direction [8][9]. 2. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: The trend is weak, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be inversely arbitraged at high levels. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11][79]. - **Analysis**: Although the weekly device changes are small, the price hits a new low, reflecting the market's expectation of significant inventory accumulation. New devices will be put into production, and the polyester device's operating rate will decline in February [11][79]. 3. Offset Printing Paper - **Core View**: After the long - position stop - profit, the market is weak. Although the sharp decline gives the cost - effectiveness of long - position, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The sharp decline of the market is mainly driven by capital behavior. Fundamentally, there are three bearish factors: potential resumption of production by Zhanjiang Chenming, expected decline in paper prices after January, and the drag of pulp prices on paper prices [12][13]. 4. Other Commodities - **Gold**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts rebounds [17]. - **Silver**: It oscillates and declines [17]. - **Copper**: High risk sentiment supports the price [17]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [17]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price [17]. - **Tin**: Supply is disturbed again [17]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity moves up [17]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be under pressure [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is insufficient upward momentum [17]. - **Platinum**: It continues to oscillate [17]. - **Palladium**: It fluctuates in a narrow range [17]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus changes, but the game contradiction remains unchanged [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is enhanced [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the fermentation of the Nigerian mine - shutdown event [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of the Xinjiang environmental - protection event [17]. - **Polysilicon**: It is the core target of anti - involution, and the low - buying idea is the main strategy [17]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [17]. - **Rebar**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Affected by the factory's resumption sentiment, it oscillates widely [17]. - **Silicomanganese**: The market has a long - short sentiment game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - **Coke**: It oscillates widely [17]. - **Coking Coal**: It oscillates widely [17]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level [17]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supported by cost, it is in a high - level oscillation market [17]. - **PTA**: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market [17]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates and declines [17]. - **Asphalt**: With the rebound of oil prices, it oscillates in a narrow range [17]. - **LLDPE**: The basis weakens, and the upstream selling pressure continues to be released [17]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still has pressure [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trend still has pressure [17]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: It oscillates and declines [17]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [17]. - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is still under pressure [17]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited [17]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low level [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range and may temporarily get rid of the weak state [17]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It rebounds at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [17]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillation market [17]. - **Short - Fiber**: There is pressure in the medium term, and the processing fee should be narrowed at high levels [17]. - **Bottle Chip**: There is pressure in the medium term, and the processing fee should be narrowed at high levels [17]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term [17]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the inflection point to be confirmed and operate in the range temporarily [17]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven insufficiently by US soybeans, it oscillates mainly [17]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans decline, and Dalian soybean meal may follow and oscillate weakly [17]. - **Soybean**: The market oscillates [17]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot [17]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly [17]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [17]. - **Egg**: The spot oscillates [17]. - **Live Pig**: The weakness continues, and the basis logic returns [17]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the oil mill's purchase [17].

Coking Coal - Supply remains tight despite gradual recovery from previous production cuts, with new reductions and suspensions impacting availability [2] - Current spot price is 1315, with a basis of 248, indicating a bullish sentiment [2] - Steel mill inventory stands at 8.01 million tons, port inventory at 2.95 million tons, and independent coking enterprises at 8.61 million tons, totaling 19.57 million tons, down 210,000 tons from last week [2] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [2] - Main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [2] - Anticipated weak demand in the traditional off-season, with steel prices declining and mills facing losses, leading to cautious procurement of raw coal [2] Coking Coke - Production enthusiasm among coking enterprises is high due to easing environmental controls and declining raw material coal prices, leading to expanded profits [3] - Current spot price is 1600, with a basis of 25.5, indicating a bullish sentiment [3] - Steel mill inventory is 6.26 million tons, port inventory at 1.87 million tons, and independent coking enterprises at 450,000 tons, totaling 8.58 million tons, down 10,000 tons from last week [3] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [3] - Main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [3] - Anticipated weak demand due to reduced procurement willingness from steel mills amid a traditional consumption off-season [3] Iron Ore - Steel production is decreasing, leading to a loose supply-demand balance and increasing port inventories [4] - Current spot price for PB powder is 837, with a basis of 43, indicating a bullish sentiment [4] - Port inventory stands at 159.01 million tons, showing an increase compared to previous periods [4] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [4] - Main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions [4] Hot Rolled Coil - Both supply and demand are weakening, with continued inventory reduction and export challenges [5] - Current spot price is 3290, with a basis of -12, indicating a neutral sentiment [5] - National inventory across 33 major cities is 3.2288 million tons, down from previous weeks [5] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [5] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [5] Stainless Steel - Slight decline in spot prices, with stable costs and rising inventory levels [6] - Average price is 13275, with a basis of 920, indicating a bullish sentiment [6] - Futures warehouse receipts show a decrease of 354, indicating a neutral sentiment [6] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6] Rebar - Demand remains weak, with low inventory levels recovering and trade purchasing intentions still weak [6] - Current spot price is 3250, with a basis of 140, indicating a bullish sentiment [6] - National inventory across 35 major cities is 3.8475 million tons, down from previous weeks [6] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [6] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [6] Glass - Production profits are weak, with supply contraction not meeting expectations and high historical inventory levels [7] - Current spot price for float glass is 1004 yuan/ton, with a basis of -49, indicating a bearish sentiment [7] - National inventory stands at 6.2362 million weight boxes, slightly reduced from previous weeks [7] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7] PVC - Supply pressure is increasing with production rates rising, while demand remains low [8] - Current price is 4540, with a basis of -9, indicating a neutral sentiment [9] - Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, up 2.28% from previous weeks [9] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [10] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [11] Asphalt - Supply is increasing with production rates rising, while demand remains below historical averages [12] - Current price is 2990, with a basis of -13, indicating a neutral sentiment [13] - Social inventory is 774,000 tons, down 2.51% from previous weeks [13] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [14] Nickel - Recent price rebound with cautious purchasing from traders, while supply remains tight [44] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [44] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [44] Zinc - Global refined zinc production is short of demand, indicating a bullish sentiment [45] - Current price is 22460, with a basis of +35, indicating a neutral sentiment [46] - LME zinc inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased [46] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [47] Copper - Supply disruptions and marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI indicate a neutral sentiment [50] - Current price is 87360, with a basis of -70, indicating a neutral sentiment [51] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [52] Gold - Recent price increase driven by silver price surge and positive market sentiment [58] - Current price is 953.92, with a basis of -5.88, indicating a bearish sentiment [58] - Inventory levels increased, indicating a bearish trend [58] Silver - Significant price increase driven by supply shortages and positive market sentiment [59] - Current price is 12727, with a basis of -56, indicating a neutral sentiment [59] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [59]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shock pattern of stock index futures continues [1] - On November 26, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed gains and losses. IF rose 0.42%, IH rose 0.14%, IC closed flat, and IM fell 0.09% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 were 4493, 4479.6, 4459.8, and 4413 respectively, with increases of 0.42%, 0.46%, 0.35%, and 0.28%. The bases were - 24.63, - 38.03, - 57.83, and - 104.63. The trading volumes were 70583, 3524, 18103, and 5077, with changes of - 7168, + 586, - 3799, and - 1265. The open interests were 155905, 4076, 76078, and 23235, with changes of - 4903, + 1067, - 2017, and + 573 [1] - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2512, IH2601, IH2603, and IH2606 were 2964.6, 2961, 2959.2, and 2951.6 respectively, with increases of 0.14%, 0.18%, 0.14%, and 0.14%. The bases were - 7.2, - 10.8, - 12.6, and - 20.2. The trading volumes were 26457, 1224, 5866, and 1942, with changes of - 6153, + 350, - 2060, and - 514. The open interests were 58010, 1474, 20321, and 6403, with changes of - 1525, + 390, - 1076, and - 63 [1] - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2512, IC2601, IC2603, and IC2606 were 6909.4, 6852, 6745.6, and 6541.6 respectively, with changes of 0.00%, - 0.08%, - 0.03%, and - 0.03%. The bases were - 55.65, - 113.05, - 219.45, and - 423.45. The trading volumes were 74334, 3279, 21621, and 7736, with changes of - 19218, - 1449, - 5607, and - 1473. The open interests were 143910, 5132, 70530, and 29516, with changes of - 8529, + 510, - 1014, and - 10 [1] - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2512, IM2601, IM2603, and IM2606 were 7176.2, 7107.6, 6959, and 6725.8 respectively, with changes of - 0.09%, - 0.05%, - 0.11%, and - 0.20%. The bases were - 72.25, - 140.85, - 289.45, and - 522.65. The trading volumes were 125795, 6676, 30910, and 14169, with changes of - 26962, - 39, - 7315, and - 1326. The open interests were 202891, 9599, 96173, and 52564, with changes of - 8427, + 4977, - 1043, and + 1182 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - The total trading volume of IF decreased by 11646 lots, IH decreased by 8377 lots, IC decreased by 27747 lots, and IM decreased by 35642 lots. The total open interest of IF decreased by 5280 lots, IH decreased by 2274 lots, IC decreased by 9043 lots, and IM decreased by 6709 lots [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis - The report provides the basis trends of IF, IH, IC, and IM from October 31, 2025, to November 26, 2025 [4] 4. Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 3239 (IF2512), - 1578 (IF2603), 554 (IF2606), and the short - position changes were - 4217 (IF2512), - 1710 (IF2603), 593 (IF2606). The net long - position change was - 4263, and the net short - position change was - 5334 [5] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 1367 (IH2512), - 1092 (IH2603), and the short - position changes were - 1621 (IH2512), - 955 (IH2603). The net long - position change was - 2459, and the net short - position change was - 2576 [5] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 6960 (IC2512), - 604 (IC2603), 427 (IC2606), and the short - position changes were - 7024 (IC2512), - 827 (IC2603), 178 (IC2606). The net long - position change was - 7137, and the net short - position change was - 7673 [5] - For IM contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 7490 (IM2512), - 370 (IM2603), and the short - position changes were - 7157 (IM2512), - 961 (IM2603). The net long - position change was - 7860, and the net short - position change was - 8118 [5] 5. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the supply - demand adaptability of consumer goods and promote consumption, focusing on key industries such as intelligent connected new - energy vehicles, smart homes, and consumer electronics [6] 6. Market News - Vanke experienced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds. Some of its domestic bonds tumbled during Wednesday's trading, but some rebounded after the suspension. Vanke Enterprise in Hong Kong stocks fell more than 6%, and Vanke A fell about 2.5%. Pufa Bank plans to hold a meeting of holders of "22 Vanke MTN004" on December 10 to discuss bond extension matters [7] - The three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow up 0.67%, the S&P 500 up 0.69%, and the Nasdaq up 0.82%. US stocks are expected to record large gains this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.14%. The A - share market had nearly 3600 stocks falling [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is in a slow - bull trend. Although the US technology stocks are adjusting, it is not a reversal. In China, the economic data in October weakened, but the policy expectation will turn positive before the Politburo meeting in December, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [8][9]. - For copper, short - term price increases are limited, but in the long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. The weakening of raw material supply tension, the increase in recycled copper supply, and the high domestic refined copper production are the current situations. However, long - term consumption has strong growth logic [10]. - In the pig market, the de - stocking drive is emerging, and the reverse - spread strategy has entered the right - hand side. The demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and there may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, leading to a potential acceleration of the decline in spot prices [12]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the shipment volume at the mine end is increasing, and there is a risk of a month - on - month weakening in demand, with limited upside potential. The demand in the energy storage sector remains strong, but there is a slight month - on - month decline, and the power demand will enter a seasonal off - season [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high on Friday last week but declined in the late session. The adjustment of US technology stocks during the earnings season has dragged down the AI sector, and the market style has shifted to value sectors such as banks and consumption [8]. - Although the capital expenditure of US technology giants is large, it is still far from the level of the 2000 dot - com bubble. Some technology giants' earnings have exceeded expectations, and the overseas adjustment is not a reversal [9]. - In China, the economic data in October continued to weaken. Before the Politburo meeting in December, the market's policy expectations will turn positive, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [9]. 3.2 Copper - Macroscopically, the US government shutdown has ended, but the hawkish statements of Fed officials have weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the long run, preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed may lead to a decline in the US dollar and support prices [10]. - Fundamentally, the logic of raw material supply tension is continuously weakening, the supply of recycled copper has increased marginally, and the processing fee for crude copper has started to rise. Domestic refined copper production remains high [10]. - The current demand has weakened, but the long - term logic is still strong. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand and terminal consumption, but domestic active fiscal policies and the long - term demand from AI data centers and power grid upgrades will drive copper consumption [10]. 3.3 Pig - Since November, the market has been trading on the expectation of increased demand due to the temperature drop in the second half of the month, but the demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and the time for concentrated bacon - curing to boost demand is around the Winter Solstice [12]. - From the supply side, the group sales in the middle of the month have been poor for many consecutive days, the slaughter progress is slow, and a passive pressure - bar situation has formed. The weight of the存栏 has increased significantly due to the large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October [12]. - Although farmers have a sentiment of reluctant to sell, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has shown a reverse - seasonal weakening trend, and the loss from pressure - bar has increased. There may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, and the spot price may accelerate its decline [12]. 3.4 Lithium Carbonate - On the demand side, the energy storage demand remains strong, but the winning bid data from October to November shows a slight month - on - month decline. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in October has slowed down, and December will enter a traditional seasonal off - season [14]. - On the supply side, since October 27, the shipment volume of Australian mines has been above the annual average for three consecutive weeks. Australian mining companies have increased supply by improving recycling efficiency, and this incremental supply is expected to be gradually released by the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year [15]. - In the short term, the de - stocking trend will continue, but with the increase in supply and the entry of power demand into the seasonal off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [15].