所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 关于降息美联储内部分歧正在加大，美政府停摆导致评估更难 观点分享： 北京时间 10 月 9 日凌晨，美联储官网发布了 9 月 16 日至 17 日的联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性 超过了持续高企的通胀，因此决定降息 25 个基点，这是今年的首次降息。9 月会议的投票结 果为 11 比 1，投出反对票的成员是由美国总统特朗普任命的美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran），他主张降息 50 个基点。纪要显示，多数与会者强调了通胀前景上行 的风险，少数官员对降息持保留态度。部分官员认为上月无需降息，或本可支持维持利率不 变。19 位参会官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次，但有数人预计 2025 年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。这反映出美联储内部分歧依然较大。号称"美联储 传声筒"的知名财经记者 Nick Timiraos 撰文称，美联储官员在降息幅度问题上存在分歧， 一些官员认为上月无需降息，或本可支 ...

Group 1 - The A-share and futures market have shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3800-point mark as of August 25, and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days, reaching a record high of 3.14 trillion yuan on August 25, the second highest in history [1][4] - Analysts attribute the continuous rise in A-shares and futures to policy support and liquidity, with a significant accumulation of policy benefits since September last year, which has boosted market confidence and attracted new capital [1][2] - The improvement in corporate earnings is characterized as structural, with sectors like semiconductors and AI showing strong performance, although overall corporate profitability has not fully recovered, as indicated by a manufacturing PMI drop to 49.3% in July [1][2] Group 2 - The current market rally is supported by monetary policy and corporate earnings, with total policy support being a core factor. The earnings improvement is particularly notable in manufacturing and technology sectors [2][5] - The market's risk appetite is recovering, influenced by state-owned enterprises entering the market, which has reduced downside risks and altered investor expectations, driving capital inflow [2][6] - The trading volume and price movements indicate a significant increase in market activity, with the average stock price rising from 12.65 yuan at the beginning of the year to 16.45 yuan, a 30% increase [3] Group 3 - The current leverage in the market is primarily through on-market financing, with the financing balance exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, representing 4.2% of the A-share market's circulating value, approaching historical highs [4][3] - Analysts caution about the potential for market corrections due to high trading volumes and elevated valuations, particularly in the STAR Market, where the price-to-earnings ratio has reached 180.78, indicating a risk of overvaluation [4][1] - The upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, particularly a potential rate cut in September, could further enhance foreign investment interest in A-shares, providing additional support for the index [6][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3700-point mark, reaching a nearly four-year high with an increase of 0.49% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.32%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.33% [1] - In the futures market, the SSE 50 rose by 1.27%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.93%, the CSI 500 went up by 0.12%, and the CSI 1000 saw a rise of 0.09% [1] Trading Volume and Margin Financing - The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 269.42 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The margin financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1.029 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's margin financing balance was 996.38 billion yuan, totaling 2.025 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 11.66 billion yuan from the previous day [2] Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - The continuous rise in stock indices has highlighted the capital market's profit-making effect, leading to a change in investor risk appetite [2] - Current macroeconomic drivers remain positive, with market risk appetite sustaining at a high level, while monitoring signals from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [2] - The market is experiencing a rotation of sectors, with a recommendation to increase allocation in technology growth sectors while also paying attention to opportunities in consumer and cyclical sectors [2]

期指：静待走稳 2025 年 8 月 4 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4054.93 | ↓0.51 | | 3596.9 | | | | | | IF2508 | 4042.8 | ↓0.52 | -12.13 | 341.1 | 28026 | ↓9717 | 44554 | ↓76 | | IF2509 | 4029.6 | ↓0.52 | -25.33 | 690.2 | 56881 | ↓34566 | 151416 | ↓6186 | | IF2512 | 3997.2 | ↓0.48 | -57.7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views - Trump plans to send new tariff rate notices (10% - 70%) to countries without trade agreements from August 1st, likely a weaker "aftershock" compared to April [6] - In the long - term bullish pattern of stock index futures, pay attention to internal and external marginal drivers. The market may rise in a slightly volatile way, and its continuation depends on internal and external factors [7][8] - Short - term butadiene rubber is weak, with limited downward space, and the medium - term fundamentals are under increasing pressure [9] - In the short term, the contradiction in the live pig market is not obvious, but the sentiment in the far - end market is strengthening [11] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Gold and Silver - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected. Gold has a trend strength of - 1 [19][23] - Silver: Continues to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [19][23] 2. Copper - Global copper inventories are increasing, and the price is oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [25][27] 3. Zinc - Zinc prices are moving sideways. The trend strength is 0 [28] 4. Lead - Supported by the expectation of short - term consumption peak season. The trend strength is 1 [30][31] 5. Tin - Driven by the macro - environment, tin prices are rising. The trend strength is 0 [33][36] 6. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The upward elasticity of nickel prices is limited, and prices are under pressure at low levels. Stainless steel inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The trend strength of both is 0 [37][38][43] 7. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure at the upper level. The trend strength is - 1 [44][47] 8. Polysilicon - Pay attention to policy changes. The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [48][50] 9. Iron Ore - Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is - 1 [51] 10. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [53][54][56] 11. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is - 1 [57][60] 12. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's first - round price increase is brewing, and both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is 0 [62][64] 13. Steam Coal - Daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] 14. Logs - The main contract is switching, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [70]

金 融 期 货 研 究 | AR "Blan" (1) ) | | | | C | 1 | | | | 0 | | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期指：震荡格局为主 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3942.76 | ↑0.17 | | 2360.7 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3911.6 | ↑0.10 | -31.16 | 328.3 | 28002 | ↓2834 | 60998 | ↓4473 | | IF2508 | 3895 | ↑0.01 | -47.76 | 22.3 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 7 月 1 日 期指：美股亦新高，略偏强震荡为主 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3936.08 | ↑0.37 | | 2888.2 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3906.4 | ↑0.28 | -29.68 | 361 | 30836 | ↓8936 | 65471 | ↓4640 | | IF2508 | 3893.2 | ↑0.23 | -42.88 | 23.8 | 2035 | ↓202 | 3682 | ↓344 | | IF2509 | 3885.8 | ↑0.20 | -50.28 | 466.9 | 40077 | ↓16144 | 135428 | ↓3939 | | IF2512 | 3855.6 | ↑0.17 | -8 ...

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump mentioned that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, and the US would talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran was progressing "very smoothly", but the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities [8][17][27][28][30][34]. - The Fed's Powell mentioned on the first day of the congressional hearing that he did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut, which might lead to an earlier expectation of a domestic interest - rate cut [9]. - For the stock index futures, the bullish pattern continues. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong to support the index, and then may rise and fall after full fermentation. In the trend, a bullish view is maintained, and the more certain way for long - position investors is to reverse and advance layout when there are disturbances such as geopolitical factors [9][10]. - The over - capacity of offset printing paper is intensifying, and it will be in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year. The price of double - offset paper is still bottom - seeking, and if Chenming restarts production, the paper price pressure may increase. There may be seasonal restocking and consumption improvement from September to November. Overseas pulp mills have stronger bargaining power in the industrial chain. The strategy is to short the processing profit after the futures are listed (long pulp, short double - offset paper) [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by the cease - fire of geopolitical conflicts, and silver continues to rush higher. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][20]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1 [13][22][24]. - Aluminum: It is in a high - level shock. Alumina rebounds slightly, and aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [13][25][27]. - Zinc: It is in range adjustment, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][28]. - Lead: It runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][30]. - Tin: It has a tight - reality and weak - expectation situation, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][32][35]. - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel - ore end is loose, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. Stainless steel has a marginal weakening in supply and demand, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [13][37][40]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The contradiction of warehouse receipts still exists, and the oscillating trend continues, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][41][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and it is in a short - term shock. Polysilicon continues with the idea of short - allocation on rallies. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1 [13][44][46]. - Iron Ore: The expectation fluctuates, and it oscillates in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [13][49][51]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 1 [13][52][54]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The sentiment is released, and they oscillate strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [13][55][57]. - Steam Coal: The demand still needs to be released, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][59][62]. - Others: Various products such as rubber, asphalt, and plastics have different trends such as oscillating strongly, weakly oscillating, and short - term oscillating [13]. 3.2 Market News and Data - **Precious Metals**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant macro and industry news [17]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as the start of a new copper smelter and production cuts by a Japanese company [22]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy: A large amount of data on prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences are provided, along with comprehensive news [25]. - Zinc: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of zinc futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [28]. - Lead: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [30]. - Tin: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of tin futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel are provided, along with macro and industry news such as production resumptions and suspensions in the nickel industry [37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, warehouse receipts, and relevant industrial chain data of carbonate lithium are provided, along with macro and industry news [41]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with macro and industry news [44]. - Iron Ore: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as steel inventory changes and production data [49]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided, along with price and position - holding information [55]. - Steam Coal: The trading situation, prices, and position - holding information of steam coal are provided, along with domestic and foreign price quotes [60].

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 期指：风险偏好支撑，或延续偏强运行 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3885.25 | ↑0.29 | | 2620.2 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3867.8 | ↑0.36 | -17.45 | 661.9 | 57026 | ↑13505 | 119577 | ↑8593 | | IF2507 | 3832.2 | ↑0.41 | -53.05 | 6 5 | 5657 | ↑824 | 17126 | ↑1254 | | IF2509 | 3802.4 | ↑0.57 | -82.85 | 231 | 20257 | ↑7796 | 84529 | ↑3761 | | IF2512 | 3770 | ↑0.70 | - ...