大越商品指标系统 // 黑色 // 焦煤： 1、基本面：前期减产煤矿供应虽在逐步恢复，但也有新增部分减产、停产煤矿，供应仍稍显紧张。受 焦炭首轮提降影响，市场情绪继续走弱，下游钢厂利润较低，对原料高位价格抵触心理增强，而贸易商 多数观望，拿货积极性不佳，影响煤矿新增订单减少；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差248；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上周 减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：传统淡季需求仍旧疲软，加上钢价下跌，钢厂亏损再度加剧，铁水产量进一步下滑，市场情 绪进一步降温，终端对原料煤采购更加谨慎，补库节奏放缓，焦煤需求继续承压，预计短期焦煤价格或 偏弱运行。焦煤2601：1030-1080区间操作。 焦炭： 1、基本面：随着环保管控力度逐渐缓和，区域内焦企生产积极性较高，加之原料端煤价持续下调，在 成本让利下，焦企利润继续走扩，开工维持高位水平。然由于下游钢厂催货现象减少，焦企厂内库存压 力渐显；中性 2、基差：现货市场价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shock pattern of stock index futures continues [1] - On November 26, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed gains and losses. IF rose 0.42%, IH rose 0.14%, IC closed flat, and IM fell 0.09% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 were 4493, 4479.6, 4459.8, and 4413 respectively, with increases of 0.42%, 0.46%, 0.35%, and 0.28%. The bases were - 24.63, - 38.03, - 57.83, and - 104.63. The trading volumes were 70583, 3524, 18103, and 5077, with changes of - 7168, + 586, - 3799, and - 1265. The open interests were 155905, 4076, 76078, and 23235, with changes of - 4903, + 1067, - 2017, and + 573 [1] - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2512, IH2601, IH2603, and IH2606 were 2964.6, 2961, 2959.2, and 2951.6 respectively, with increases of 0.14%, 0.18%, 0.14%, and 0.14%. The bases were - 7.2, - 10.8, - 12.6, and - 20.2. The trading volumes were 26457, 1224, 5866, and 1942, with changes of - 6153, + 350, - 2060, and - 514. The open interests were 58010, 1474, 20321, and 6403, with changes of - 1525, + 390, - 1076, and - 63 [1] - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2512, IC2601, IC2603, and IC2606 were 6909.4, 6852, 6745.6, and 6541.6 respectively, with changes of 0.00%, - 0.08%, - 0.03%, and - 0.03%. The bases were - 55.65, - 113.05, - 219.45, and - 423.45. The trading volumes were 74334, 3279, 21621, and 7736, with changes of - 19218, - 1449, - 5607, and - 1473. The open interests were 143910, 5132, 70530, and 29516, with changes of - 8529, + 510, - 1014, and - 10 [1] - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2512, IM2601, IM2603, and IM2606 were 7176.2, 7107.6, 6959, and 6725.8 respectively, with changes of - 0.09%, - 0.05%, - 0.11%, and - 0.20%. The bases were - 72.25, - 140.85, - 289.45, and - 522.65. The trading volumes were 125795, 6676, 30910, and 14169, with changes of - 26962, - 39, - 7315, and - 1326. The open interests were 202891, 9599, 96173, and 52564, with changes of - 8427, + 4977, - 1043, and + 1182 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - The total trading volume of IF decreased by 11646 lots, IH decreased by 8377 lots, IC decreased by 27747 lots, and IM decreased by 35642 lots. The total open interest of IF decreased by 5280 lots, IH decreased by 2274 lots, IC decreased by 9043 lots, and IM decreased by 6709 lots [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis - The report provides the basis trends of IF, IH, IC, and IM from October 31, 2025, to November 26, 2025 [4] 4. Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 3239 (IF2512), - 1578 (IF2603), 554 (IF2606), and the short - position changes were - 4217 (IF2512), - 1710 (IF2603), 593 (IF2606). The net long - position change was - 4263, and the net short - position change was - 5334 [5] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 1367 (IH2512), - 1092 (IH2603), and the short - position changes were - 1621 (IH2512), - 955 (IH2603). The net long - position change was - 2459, and the net short - position change was - 2576 [5] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 6960 (IC2512), - 604 (IC2603), 427 (IC2606), and the short - position changes were - 7024 (IC2512), - 827 (IC2603), 178 (IC2606). The net long - position change was - 7137, and the net short - position change was - 7673 [5] - For IM contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts were - 7490 (IM2512), - 370 (IM2603), and the short - position changes were - 7157 (IM2512), - 961 (IM2603). The net long - position change was - 7860, and the net short - position change was - 8118 [5] 5. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the supply - demand adaptability of consumer goods and promote consumption, focusing on key industries such as intelligent connected new - energy vehicles, smart homes, and consumer electronics [6] 6. Market News - Vanke experienced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds. Some of its domestic bonds tumbled during Wednesday's trading, but some rebounded after the suspension. Vanke Enterprise in Hong Kong stocks fell more than 6%, and Vanke A fell about 2.5%. Pufa Bank plans to hold a meeting of holders of "22 Vanke MTN004" on December 10 to discuss bond extension matters [7] - The three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow up 0.67%, the S&P 500 up 0.69%, and the Nasdaq up 0.82%. US stocks are expected to record large gains this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.14%. The A - share market had nearly 3600 stocks falling [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is in a slow - bull trend. Although the US technology stocks are adjusting, it is not a reversal. In China, the economic data in October weakened, but the policy expectation will turn positive before the Politburo meeting in December, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [8][9]. - For copper, short - term price increases are limited, but in the long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. The weakening of raw material supply tension, the increase in recycled copper supply, and the high domestic refined copper production are the current situations. However, long - term consumption has strong growth logic [10]. - In the pig market, the de - stocking drive is emerging, and the reverse - spread strategy has entered the right - hand side. The demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and there may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, leading to a potential acceleration of the decline in spot prices [12]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the shipment volume at the mine end is increasing, and there is a risk of a month - on - month weakening in demand, with limited upside potential. The demand in the energy storage sector remains strong, but there is a slight month - on - month decline, and the power demand will enter a seasonal off - season [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high on Friday last week but declined in the late session. The adjustment of US technology stocks during the earnings season has dragged down the AI sector, and the market style has shifted to value sectors such as banks and consumption [8]. - Although the capital expenditure of US technology giants is large, it is still far from the level of the 2000 dot - com bubble. Some technology giants' earnings have exceeded expectations, and the overseas adjustment is not a reversal [9]. - In China, the economic data in October continued to weaken. Before the Politburo meeting in December, the market's policy expectations will turn positive, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [9]. 3.2 Copper - Macroscopically, the US government shutdown has ended, but the hawkish statements of Fed officials have weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the long run, preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed may lead to a decline in the US dollar and support prices [10]. - Fundamentally, the logic of raw material supply tension is continuously weakening, the supply of recycled copper has increased marginally, and the processing fee for crude copper has started to rise. Domestic refined copper production remains high [10]. - The current demand has weakened, but the long - term logic is still strong. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand and terminal consumption, but domestic active fiscal policies and the long - term demand from AI data centers and power grid upgrades will drive copper consumption [10]. 3.3 Pig - Since November, the market has been trading on the expectation of increased demand due to the temperature drop in the second half of the month, but the demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and the time for concentrated bacon - curing to boost demand is around the Winter Solstice [12]. - From the supply side, the group sales in the middle of the month have been poor for many consecutive days, the slaughter progress is slow, and a passive pressure - bar situation has formed. The weight of the存栏 has increased significantly due to the large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October [12]. - Although farmers have a sentiment of reluctant to sell, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has shown a reverse - seasonal weakening trend, and the loss from pressure - bar has increased. There may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, and the spot price may accelerate its decline [12]. 3.4 Lithium Carbonate - On the demand side, the energy storage demand remains strong, but the winning bid data from October to November shows a slight month - on - month decline. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in October has slowed down, and December will enter a traditional seasonal off - season [14]. - On the supply side, since October 27, the shipment volume of Australian mines has been above the annual average for three consecutive weeks. Australian mining companies have increased supply by improving recycling efficiency, and this incremental supply is expected to be gradually released by the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year [15]. - In the short term, the de - stocking trend will continue, but with the increase in supply and the entry of power demand into the seasonal off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [15].

Overall Key Points - The report analyzes the overnight performance and future trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [2][3][4] Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% increase in inventory in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory accumulation of upstream crude oil is concentrated in the transit link. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations, and the suspension of production increase in the first quarter of next year reflects the organization's management of the downward risk. However, according to the current production increase path, the market supply-demand surplus in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year still faces marginal expansion. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of the short-selling portfolio after the geopolitical risk is priced again [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The medium-term supply pattern of high-sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the previous high valuation faces correction pressure. The low-sulfur market has received short-term support, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten. The price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to further widen [22] Asphalt - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil and shut down, and the weekly output decreased. The construction in the north is gradually declining, and the construction in the northeast and northwest has gradually stopped under the influence of low temperatures. The south still has the demand for rush construction. Since late October, the year-on-year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has shown a negative growth for the first time, and it is likely to continue the trend of negative year-on-year growth in the future. The decline of the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year-on-year for the first time at the end of October [23] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG contract continued to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased slightly, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the increase of demand, and the cooling in many places has driven the improvement of combustion demand. The market expects the overall demand to improve. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio increased. The marginal improvement of the fundamental expectation still supports LPG [24] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was slightly lower than expected and the previous value. Recently, many Fed officials have spoken out against a rate cut in December, reflecting internal differences. The US government shutdown is still in the game stage, and the non-farm payroll data this week may not be released. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have built a high-level shock platform. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell in late trading. The market is evaluating the copper consumption at the end of the year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the high copper price in China has suppressed demand. However, compared with the second quarter of last year, the spot side has improved its passive adaptability in the environment of "weak supply and demand". At the same time, the domestic social inventory has accumulated to more than 200,000 tons, and there is still a certain space from the critical point of the lagging reflection of supply and demand. After the short-term copper price reached a high, there is a certain risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the support toughness of the MA20 moving average. Some long positions can be held based on the key moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 million tons compared with Thursday. Since October, the domestic inventory and spot performance have been average, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year-on-year. The macro sentiment dominates, and the resonance of the aluminum market fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly towards the high point in November 2024, but the upward space is cautiously viewed for the time being [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, the LME zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 161,700 tons. The divergence of the inventory between the domestic and foreign markets has temporarily stopped, and the cross-market arbitrage funds have the demand to take profits. The domestic mine TC continues to decline to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported mine TC also declines synchronously. The short-term rebound momentum of SHFE zinc is relatively strong. Short-term long positions can be participated, and the high rebound range is temporarily seen at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: On Monday, the SMM lead social inventory slightly increased to 30,200 tons, which is generally low. The correction of SHFE lead is not smooth, and the fundamentals are mixed. The funds are more cautious to enter the market. The raw material overlap between recycled lead and primary lead smelters is increasing day by day. Under the background of winter storage, the smelting capacity is surplus, and the shortage of lead concentrate is intensifying. The price of waste batteries remains high and stable, and the cost of SHFE lead is strongly supported. The refined scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 lead is at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase low-priced recycled lead, and the trading of electrolytic lead is slightly sluggish. Affected by the game between cost and demand, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300-17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The weak downstream demand dominates the market. Although there are news of stainless steel mills reducing production, the actual implementation still needs to be observed. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high-nickel pig iron is quoted at 926 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the rebound of the upstream price is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the entire nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons. SHFE nickel is running weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated weakly. The tin market lacks clear guidance and mainly follows the rhythm of the copper price. In addition to the interference of the rainy season on the transportation rhythm, the closure of the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania may also affect the export speed of tin products. The tin price fluctuated at a high level for a long time in October, and the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is generally average, but there is still demand for spot pricing. Last week, the social inventory of SMM and Steel Union continued to flow out slightly. Subjectively, it is recommended to short on rallies or wait for the right-side trading opportunity after a clear break [11] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipment volume decreased this period but is still at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, but the Brazilian shipment is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high this year. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly last week, and the profitability of steel mills reached a new low this year, with further production reduction pressure in the future. The progress of the Sino-US trade agreement has alleviated the concern about weak exports, and an important domestic meeting has been held. After the short-term rebound of the iron ore futures, the market tends to realize some benefits. It is expected that the iron ore will fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. There is an expectation of a third round of price increase for coking coal. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream enterprises purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory increased slightly. The purchasing intention of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coke futures are at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment declined rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting the environmental protection standards, but most of the coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production. It is judged that the price is difficult to continue to decline. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices generally increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory decreased slightly. As the safety inspection team is about to enter the main coal-producing areas, attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coking coal futures are at a discount to the Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Group 3: Chemicals Polyolefins - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The market is still dragged down by the demand side, and the bearish expectation of market participants remains unchanged. However, the positive impact of the maintenance of the Binzhou PDH unit will provide a window for bargain hunting and is expected to drive propylene to stop falling to a certain extent. For polyethylene, the number of domestic petrochemical maintenance units decreased, and the capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. The demand for greenhouse films and mulch films weakened, and other downstream industries showed no bright spots. The enthusiasm of factories for raw material procurement was dull, and the overall trading volume was limited. For polypropylene, the impact of new capacity and the weakening of unit maintenance intensity are expected to increase the supply pressure. The downstream operating rate is stable, with rigid demand support, but the downstream profit is limited, and the raw material procurement is cautious. The demand is difficult to release continuously, which still suppresses the market [29] Other Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol futures continued to decline significantly at night. The import supply is expected to remain sufficient, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The profits of most downstream products are not good, and the overall support for the methanol market is insufficient. Some coastal MTO units have maintenance plans in the future, and the demand of traditional downstream industries is expected to enter the off-season as the weather gets colder. The situation of high port inventory and high import supply of methanol is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the weak downstream demand further suppresses the market. The inflection point of port inventory has not appeared, and it is necessary to wait for the substantial implementation of supply reduction and demand improvement [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The chemical products fell overall at night, and the price of general benzene fell below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The arrival volume increased and the提货 volume decreased, and the port inventory increased significantly on Monday. The units restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly. The purchasing sentiment for low-price spot goods is good, but there are negative factors such as high import volume and falling demand in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm in the future, and the monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [27] - **Styrene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the improvement of the supply-demand situation is limited. The overall pressure remains. Although new units have been put into operation, the overall supply has still decreased slightly due to the sudden maintenance of individual units. The demand remains stable, and the supply-demand balance continues, but the high inventory structure is difficult to resolve, which keeps the price under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the cost support weakened. Under the weak reality, PVC is operating at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased, but the industry inventory pressure is still large. The maintenance of some enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Tianye Tianneng Production Area, and Hangjin Technology has ended, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The domestic demand is stable, and the export is mainly on the sidelines due to the Indian holiday and anti-dumping duties. With weak cost support and high supply and low demand, PVC may operate at a low level. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has become negative again, and the profit has narrowed. Some caustic soda enterprises have slightly raised the price, and it is operating strongly during the day. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory pressure is large. The enterprises' maintenance has recovered, and the supply has increased. The profit of alumina has been compressed, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and the replenishment intention is not strong. The non-aluminum demand growth is limited. The supply pressure of caustic soda is high, and the purchasing price of alumina has been lowered again. The downstream demand is average. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine. If the price continues to fall, the caustic soda price may rebound at a low level under the cost support [30] - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA closed with a doji at night, and the center of gravity moved down. The units of Wuhua Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua restarted, and the supply of PX and PTA increased. The supply and demand of PX increased simultaneously, the polyester load was stable, and PTA has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening in the medium term. Under the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, the reverse arbitrage idea is continued. Attention should be paid to the oil price fluctuation [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, the port arrival forecast increased, and the inventory increased slightly on Monday. The Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit is planned to restart, and the supply pressure will be further manifested. The ethylene glycol futures fell with increasing volume and open interest. The demand is expected to weaken in the medium term, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The reverse arbitrage is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possibility of unit production reduction after the benefit decline [32] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybeans are expected to have better sales due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations and continue to be strong. After the preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino-US-Malaysian economic and trade consultations, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, and Sino-US relations may tend to ease. However, as of the time of publication, there is no official policy adjustment. There are already news that China has purchased some US soybeans, but it has not been confirmed through official channels. Currently, the domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the crushing profit has been repaired, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly this week. The atmosphere of Sino-US trade easing is strong, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of China's import of US soybeans in the future. According to Jin10 Data, the latest US soybean premium quotation is roughly the same as that of Brazil. A significant reduction in the tariff on US soybeans is needed to resume Sino-US soybean trade. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino-US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures corrected at night. The new corn in the Northeast continues to be supplied, and the price is stable with a slight

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29, Eastern Time, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December. However, Powell poured cold water on the year - end rate - cut expectation [7]. - The domestic Fourth Plenary Session and the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" have a positive attitude towards economic growth in the next five years, which is conducive to the stability of macro - expectations. The upcoming meeting between Chinese and US presidents at the APEC meeting and the easing of the geopolitical environment have improved risk appetite [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 29, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and the government shutdown poses challenges due to missing economic data [7]. 3.2 Sector Recommendations by the Director 3.2.1 Index Futures - With the gradual landing of positive factors, the index futures may oscillate and wait for new drivers. Domestic policies and the upcoming Sino - US summit have boosted market sentiment, but the Fed's hawkish remarks led to a decline in US stocks. Future upward movement of the index will depend on new positive news, and there may be oscillations around the 4000 - point mark [9][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Supported by the tightening upstream fundamentals and the expected third - round price increase of coke, the coking coal spot price is strong. Macro expectations and anti - involution themes also boost the market. However, the shrinking profit of downstream steel mills and the price of thermal coal may limit its upward space [12][14]. 3.2.3 Container Freight Index (European Line) - There is a risk of a pull - back after a surge. The market is optimistic due to Maersk's surcharge announcement and the expectation of the US softening its stance on China's tariffs. Attention should be paid to the impact of port congestion on supply and the support of December's shipping capacity on prices [13][15]. 3.2.4 Live Pigs - In the short - term, the spot price may oscillate and adjust. But from the perspective of the production cycle, the pressure will increase in the future as the profit recovers, and the far - end hedging willingness will increase [16]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold continues to decline, and silver rebounds oscillatingly. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [19][22][24]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The hawkish outlook on rate cuts restricts price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Zinc: It rebounds slightly, with a trend intensity of 0 [29]. - Lead: The continuous reduction of inventory supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [32]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Aluminum: It oscillates within a range. Alumina rebounds slightly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is 0 [39][41]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore lead to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices. Stainless steel has limited downward space but lacks upward drivers. The trend intensity of both is 0 [42]. 3.3.3 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The basis is stable, and it runs strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [45][47]. - Industrial Silicon: The sentiment is boosted, and the price on the disk rises. The trend intensity is 1 [49][51]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the policy fermentation this week. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - sentiment, the steel prices oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 1 [54][56]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, they oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 0 [58][61]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They oscillate strongly, and the trend intensity of both is 0 [62][64]. - Logs: They oscillate repeatedly [65].

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].

Group 1 - The A-share and futures market have shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3800-point mark as of August 25, and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days, reaching a record high of 3.14 trillion yuan on August 25, the second highest in history [1][4] - Analysts attribute the continuous rise in A-shares and futures to policy support and liquidity, with a significant accumulation of policy benefits since September last year, which has boosted market confidence and attracted new capital [1][2] - The improvement in corporate earnings is characterized as structural, with sectors like semiconductors and AI showing strong performance, although overall corporate profitability has not fully recovered, as indicated by a manufacturing PMI drop to 49.3% in July [1][2] Group 2 - The current market rally is supported by monetary policy and corporate earnings, with total policy support being a core factor. The earnings improvement is particularly notable in manufacturing and technology sectors [2][5] - The market's risk appetite is recovering, influenced by state-owned enterprises entering the market, which has reduced downside risks and altered investor expectations, driving capital inflow [2][6] - The trading volume and price movements indicate a significant increase in market activity, with the average stock price rising from 12.65 yuan at the beginning of the year to 16.45 yuan, a 30% increase [3] Group 3 - The current leverage in the market is primarily through on-market financing, with the financing balance exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, representing 4.2% of the A-share market's circulating value, approaching historical highs [4][3] - Analysts caution about the potential for market corrections due to high trading volumes and elevated valuations, particularly in the STAR Market, where the price-to-earnings ratio has reached 180.78, indicating a risk of overvaluation [4][1] - The upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, particularly a potential rate cut in September, could further enhance foreign investment interest in A-shares, providing additional support for the index [6][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3700-point mark, reaching a nearly four-year high with an increase of 0.49% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.32%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.33% [1] - In the futures market, the SSE 50 rose by 1.27%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.93%, the CSI 500 went up by 0.12%, and the CSI 1000 saw a rise of 0.09% [1] Trading Volume and Margin Financing - The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 269.42 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The margin financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1.029 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's margin financing balance was 996.38 billion yuan, totaling 2.025 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 11.66 billion yuan from the previous day [2] Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - The continuous rise in stock indices has highlighted the capital market's profit-making effect, leading to a change in investor risk appetite [2] - Current macroeconomic drivers remain positive, with market risk appetite sustaining at a high level, while monitoring signals from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [2] - The market is experiencing a rotation of sectors, with a recommendation to increase allocation in technology growth sectors while also paying attention to opportunities in consumer and cyclical sectors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 3, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed performance. IF fell 0.52%, IH fell 0.67%, IC fell 0.16%, and IM rose 0.21% [1]. - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF decreased by 56,758 lots, IH by 25,092 lots, IC by 30,117 lots, and IM by 54,792 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 9,118 lots, IH by 3,066 lots, IC by 6,919 lots, and IM by 10,044 lots [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing prices and percentage changes of the four major stock indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) and their corresponding futures contracts on August 3 are presented, with some rising and some falling [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract is provided, showing the difference between the futures price and the spot price [1]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The trading volume, turnover, and their changes of each futures contract are given, indicating the market activity [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest and its changes of each futures contract are shown, reflecting the market's holding situation [1]. 3.2 Index Futures Member Positions - The long - and short - position changes of the top 20 member institutions in each futures contract are presented, including the net changes in some contracts [5]. 3.3 Market Trends and Influencing Factors - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - **Important Drivers**: The National Development and Reform Commission has completed the allocation of 69 billion yuan in the third batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - ins this year and will allocate the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in October to reach the annual plan of 300 billion yuan. The NDRC will continue to promote measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and strengthen economic monitoring and policy reserve [6]. - **Other Policies**: The "Two - Key" construction project list of 800 billion yuan has been fully allocated, and the central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically allocated. The NDRC is taking measures to address "involution - style competition" and promote the high - quality development of the private economy [7]. 3.4 Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%. The A - share trading volume was 1.62 trillion yuan, down from 1.96 trillion yuan the previous day. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.74%. Some sectors such as innovative drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, photovoltaic industry chain, intelligent logistics, and AI agents showed strength, while AI hardware, military, stablecoin, and rare earth permanent magnet concepts declined [8].